Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Nielsen’s debut result for the year gives the Coalition its first lead in a phone poll since November.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,406 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 29
1 2 3 4 29
  1. Indonesia is going to give Abbott a bloody nose and the USA are going to tell him to STFU and ffs don’t put Indonesia outside the tent and into the hands of China.

    Else there will again be plans to knife the PM, known to the US embassy. They got their girl licking Israel’s boots and will in the end require Abbott to lay himself over a barrel to make up with Indonesia.

    And unemployment with consequent housing price bubble issues.

    Labor should be laying the foundation for the accusation later that the Libs have created unemployment and damaged the economy..this is on the horizon…so build the argument and rhetoric now.

    give shorten another year to see if he has the goods…in the mean time .. time to add the economy to the strategy.

    They need to push hard on the Indon/Aust relationship fucking up by Abbott and co…as this is an issue Abbott cannot win on in the end.

  2. [What amazes me is that just a few months ago, with an ALP government, all of this was GOOD. Now, apparently, its BAD.]

    Have you not seen my comments on this very thread? I’ve credited the coalition govt with stopping boats, and suggested Labor now STFU about boats now that they are done and dusted.

    [If, however, you want to demonise Morrison as being callous and showing no compassion for the tragedy of the case of the recent death, presumably suicide, then it is reasonable to actually quote Morrison so there is no doubt ]

    Which has been done. Verbatim from the transcript no less. What kind of person responds to a question about a visa overstayer topping themselves with a question about whether it was necessary for the person to over stay their visa in the first place? Scott Morrison, perhaps more than any other coalition frontbencher has had ample opposition time in the media spotlight, and should do better than this. Stop making excuses for the man, and chip his response for what it was.

    [Did you rant and rave when children cut themselves and men sewed their lips together in the mandatory detention centres that you supported when you piggy backed Gillard’s lurch to the right?]

    Yes. If you’ll recall my preference was for the Malaysia agreement which would’ve at least allowed those people to live in the community, even work if they wanted to.

  3. Everying @93: $7 billion – always take absolute numbers with a grain of salt. They’re usually quoted to scare or impress people.

    $7 billion – $7,000,000,000.00. A big number. It’s about 0.46% of Australia’s GDP. It’s about $6 per week per capita, assuming that’s an annual figure that you quote. Now maybe, like most Liberals, you believe that either Climate Change isn’t happening or that it can be fixed by endin young people out into the bush with a song in their hearts to plant trees.

    Cost of supporting novated lease rorts: $1,800,000.00
    Cost of Direct Inaction – a fix that won’t work to address a problem most Liberals don’t believe exists: $1,000,000.00
    Cost of Gold-plated Paid Parental leave – $6,100,000.00 – surely enough to wipe out a medium-sized town
    Cost of superannuation support beyond compensating retireees for not drawing the age pension – ?,000.000,000.00 and growing year by year.

  4. whatever was labor thinking when it voted in present leader – what did it learn from six years before? – they had a sincere loyal passionate articulated communicative candidate with members on side and another who can’t string a sentence of interest, can’t dress, is as exciting as a wage negotiation, and has history of troublesome disloyalty within party. and guess who we have?

  5. William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, February 16, 2014 at 10:13 pm | PERMALINK
    A look through past results of the iSentia political index, which monitors the volume of media coverage given to politicians, confirms my impression that Tony Abbott used to run second behind the prime minister of the time week in, week out, except maybe when there was a leadership challenge on. Whereas I’ve looked at ten weekly results since Bill Shorten became Opposition Leader and he’s placed second only twice. The week before last he fell to number eleven, behind Abbott, Hockey, Morrison, Joyce, Napthine, Stone, Newman, Turnbull, Pyne and Macfarlane.

    –good one william – for one thing he is just shy and awkward in front of media and any audience. good start for his role

  6. shorten is very boring and should not be in his job. there is no excise – he needs to be entertaining colourful and engaged and relaxed with media. this guy isn’t – maybe good at dry union negotiations but this is a bigger world. question is why would he want to be there? why does he think he is good at it? i thought all this was run by members and rep during leader vote. members got it right. bloody factions will never learn

  7. @geoffrey/112

    Personally I don’t care if PM or Leader is boring, I just expect them to their job, that they were “hired” to do so.

  8. Did people on PB would be so forgiving and forgetful that they would give the rabble of a government that just suffered its worst defeat in 80 years a second chance?

  9. Sorry that should have been:

    Did people on PB really think that the Australian electorate would be so forgiving and forgetful that they would give a rabble of a government, that has just suffered the worst defeat in 80 years, a second chance so soon?

  10. 115

    As the last election proved, oppositions do not win elections, governments loose them. This government has been rather bad at politics and looks like it will continue to do so, with ups and downs, until the next election. The ALP are in with a chance.

  11. Tom Paine is quite right
    I think the Indon know that the USA will not be pleased to know that Abbott
    has alienated the Indons…and that may go badly for Abbott

    That may also linkup to the visit of those Chinese warships to Indon waters this week Abbott may be in for a hammering in Washington when the goes there ….as Tom Paine suggests…and the Indons must be annoyed at Bishop’s sucking up to the Israelis re settlements on the West Bank…why do they offer themselves up to the Israelis’s a curous act…perhaps Mr Yahoo the Israeli PM has hypnotic powers

    though not anymore over the US Prsident it seems

  12. Rather bad at politics?
    In 3 months they have done what it takes to stop the boats – something the rabble dithered about for 6 years

  13. As a firm supporter of the ETS, the carbon price/tax was a cost burden on business as it was suppose to be in order to help shift power consumption to renewable.

    I do know of a number of jobs that were lost as a result of the carbon price/tax hence its unpopularity but it would be misleading to claim that the carbon price/tax was an economic wrecker.

    The current rise in unemployment has long been forecast.

  14. Another interesting poll.

    ALP must be shitting itself on boats – LNP is stopping them and the Greens are stealing the left of the ALP vote again. Shorten clearly having a bad patch and as an Ex-Union Leader of one of the Unions specifically targeted by the Royal Commission is likely to take a hammering on that front until the next Election if he lasts that long. Don’t be surprised if Caucus ditches Membership ballots and goes back to the old Caucus only system.

    LNP has to be sitting more comfortably after the SPC spat with the final term local member not having an overly negative impact – imagine how good they be without SPC/Toyota. This will gird their loins for the upcoming Budget Battles. ALP will scream blue murder at any cuts and the LNP will stoically hold the line – just as they have in the face of SPC, Holden and Toyota.

    And the boats have stopped – the LNP won’t publicly say that but they know public perception is that the boats have stopped. Navy and Customs are executing the tactics brilliantly – if they need to buy another 10 lifeboats – no big deal – it’s saving us millions of dollars.

    Long way to go but for a Party that clearly appears committed to conviction politics, apart from the member for SPC, it is a good place to be.

  15. Crank

    The MP for Murray had every reason to take the stand she did as this government falsely claimed that they were overpaid and the government were more than happy to give a cheque to Cadbury.

    The Liberal Party historically has believed in working with business until this government which has chosen to follow an economic policy which the conservatives have not followed in the last 100 years.

  16. Oakshot Country – your posts came in while I was typing mine. There are many here who would clearly disagree with you – their perceived reality clearly not matching your level headedness.

    Wonder what Meguire Bob/Bob Ellis have got to say?

  17. 119

    They started really badly with Bishop being the only woman in cabinet and blaming that on the voters of Indi.

    They have thrown manufacturing under the bus.

    The stop the boats effect is mainly the ALP`s policy but with reckless aggravation of Indonesia thrown in. The aggravation of Indonesia has not bitten them yet, but it will (the Indonesians probably will make sure of that).

  18. @CC/121

    The same reason why VLAD laws are not target to bikies themselves, the same reason why Union RC will hurt more.

    The budget will be a different matter, Liberals despite claiming fair budget, will get attacked for their budget cuts.

  19. Mexicanbeemer – The Member for SPC must surely have a question mark over her preselection. Yes, she has a role to play to represent her electorate in the best way she sees fit – but she also has a political responsibeility to
    her party.

    Have you ever heard of anyone going to Sheparton to visit the SPC Cannery? I’ve got relatives in Murchison who we’ve visited a number of times (from WA) and never thought of going to the cannery. Cadbury Tasmania on the other hand – my family have received two lots of gifts from the factory (Grandma and Aunty visiting there). And yes there was some vote buying in it too – OMFG a politician doing some Pork Barrelling! Who would do that – have a look at the rivers of Gold into the turncoat Dependents (Whinger & Jokeshot) electorates.

    Your last paragraph is bollocks.

  20. Still see no reason to be getting rid of Shorten, or even considering it.

    This knee jerk leadershit talk is just crazy.


    [The stop the boats effect is mainly the ALP`s policy but with reckless aggravation of Indonesia thrown in. The aggravation of Indonesia has not bitten them yet, but it will (the Indonesians probably will make sure of that).]

    Fair summary.

  21. Tom @124 – most of your issues don’t rate with 80% of voters and the 20% who they do aren’t ever going to vote LNP anyway.

    Indonesia will settle down after their local elections and as the number of country shoppers hanging out in Indonesia decreases.

    A huge wad of Chinese investment in Indonesia would be marvellous for Australia. I do not fear China.

  22. Crank

    How was that last paragraph bollocks, Are you trying to tell us that the Liberal Party of Deakin, Menzies & Howard didn’t look to work with business as they were of the view that government should work with business to create a strong economy.

    Sharman Stone is more of an asset to the Liberal Party as a strong political party needs diverse opinion to ensure that it doesn’t become narrowly focused.

    If you don’t believe that government has a role to play in the economy then what is the role of government?

  23. zoidy – WTF are you on about VLAD laws? We are talking about Federal politics.

    Are the IMF now LNP card carrying members – they certainly seem to support the Budget restoration policies of the LNP.

  24. Not quite sure how having one woman in cabinet or upsetting Indonesia are game changers.
    Ceasing car manufacturing is a policy that has been waiting a long time for someone with a rational view to take and will be little remembered in 3 years.

  25. OC that is pretty much true, many have already moved on as car sales show and it has been coming for a long time as sad as it is.

  26. MB – The LNP has, is and always will work with business. If you think that just because it is cutting out the deadwood in the economy that this means that it isn’t working with business then you have a very narrow view. The LNP is committed to making things easier for business – hundreds of billions worth of new projects have received environmental approval since the election after being mired in the ALP funk. Red and Green Tape is being cut and taxes are being cut. I strongly doubt business, apart from a select few coming off the teat, see the LNP being negative.

    The role of government is to provide security, the rule of law and services that the public sector can’t adequately provide (hence a Public Broadcaster is no longer required). In terms of business it should be attempting to make it as easy as possible for doing business while balancing the need to regulate. It should stay out of trying to pick winners – instead allowing risk taking behaviour to be adequately rewarded or not.

  27. 131

    The one woman and lots of men cabinet showed some of the things that Gillard and others had been saying about Abbott were true and set a bad tone to start the government off to.

    Indonesia has many ways of hurting Australia and thus Abbott. The more inflammatory the Governments is, the more likely to take such measures Abbott is.

    By manufacturing, I meant cars, SPC and other parts of manufacturing that are disadvantaged under this government.

  28. Thanks Crank well that is good to hear as the government needs to be positive rather than what it appears to be doing which is coming off as dismissive.

  29. mexicanbeemer @129 The member for SPC should have learnt by now not to wash your dirty linen in public. She could have expressed her support for the SPC deal without playing into the hands of the ALP. Calling your party leader a liar in public should earn you deselection.

  30. @CC/130

    What IMF said was to do cuts, not austerity cuts (i.e. UK).

    IMF also said that to keep interest rates low, which you can only do if inflation does not tick up, and unemployment levels do not continue to rise.

  31. And the lesson is: BOATS = VOTES (for the Libs). I think Labor ought to be praying pretty devoutly that Abbott succeeds in stopping the boats, completely and permanently and as soon as possible. That will give the Libs short-term bragging rights (“We did in six months what you couldn’t do in six years”), but with any luck the issue will have faded from the public mind by 2016.

  32. I suspect the RBA will hold rates steady for sometime, if rates were to rise now the A$ will jump quite aggressively which will further weaken Net Exports.

    Inflation is still okay although does need to be watched closely.

  33. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Nielsen Poll NSW Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50 (-1) ALP 50 (+1) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Nielsen Poll VIC Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (+2) ALP 52 (-2) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Nielsen Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 53 (+8) ALP 47 (-8) #auspol

  34. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Nielsen Poll WA Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 51 (+3) ALP 49 (-3) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Nielsen Poll SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 53 (+1) ALP 47 (-1) #auspol

  35. deblonay

    “Perhaps AbsoluteTwadle was very well named”

    And perhaps the intellectual calibre of the people who think it’s clever to comment on my internet nickname never surprises me.

  36. Psephos

    I tend to agree. The people here wishing for the boats to continue to embarrass the Abbott government really ought to think twice. Boats in the news is bad for Labor and it always has been.

Comments Page 3 of 29
1 2 3 4 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *