GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.
UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.
UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.
absolute – welcome to the club.
@Psephos/140
Once again, Psehpos wants to go to far right.
Wasting billions of dollars on detention centers, boarder activities, deportation, etc.
It’s time to BRING BACK RUDD!!
(Runs away)
Nielsen
Royal Commission into Unions: Support 67 Oppose 23
Reducing worker entitlements to make companies more competitive: Support 37 Oppose 58
Nielsen is the bestest pollster out there. It never does wild fluctuations from one poll to the next. Nielsen polls occur very regularly so it is possible to observe trends over short time periods. Yep, Nielsen polls are the best.
Looks like the Queensland numbers are now more in line with Bludgertrack, while the Victorian numbers differ by 6%.
[It’s time to BRING BACK RUDD!!]
If the Rudd forces weren’t undermining Gillard all the time Labor would be doing better.
Oh wait…
Zoidy @150 – GDP Growth at +3% and unemployment moving down towards 6% isn’t suffering.
Grow up.
Zoidy
The majority of the public do not want boat people and wont accept a government that says otherwise.
The voters will only support high levels of immigration if they feel the boats are stopped otherwise there is a real danger that the public will turn against that program and that wont benefit anyone.
Oh look, one good poll for the Coalition and Compact Hack is back!
@CC/157
How about you grow up 🙂
UK economy may be growing, but it’s doing massive cuts to archive that, the latest thought bubble is that over 1 million public service jobs to go by 2019.
Schools and Health sector will be effected.
@MB/158
Boats won’t stop.
67% support for the RC is surprising. I thought it would be much lower along party lines. I wonder if we’ll see a change in the ALP son sheet in the near future.
Zoidy I think we agree on that but currently the voters view things differently.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 8m
#Nielsen Poll Royal Commission into Unions: Support 67 Oppose 23 #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 7m
#Nielsen Poll Reducing worker entitlements to make companies more competitive: Support 37 Oppose 58 #auspol
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GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 3m
#Nielsen Poll Royal Commission into Unions (ALP Voters): Support 55 Oppose 36 #auspol
Nielsen poll on Unions, of course slanted towards Coalition Party – to be expected, that’s why polling companies are biased.
[#Nielsen Poll Royal Commission into Unions (ALP Voters): Support 55 Oppose 36 #auspol]
Bloody hell, even Labor voters want a RC into unions.
zoidlord
I don’t feel neutralising boat people as an issue is a matter of being “far right”, it’s a matter of simple pragmatism. No political party can aspire to power in Australia while advocating a soft stance on boat people, I really think at this point that is indisputable.
If principled (and eternal) opposition is your thing and you want to feel left-wing about everything, then The Greens are always there for you. Also Socialist Alternative if that’s more your style.
[Once again, Psehpos wants to go to far right.
Wasting billions of dollars on detention centers, boarder activities, deportation, etc.]
Just stating political facts, comrade. And I don’t see what’s “far right” about having an orderly immigration program.
Even Greens voters supported a RC into unions.
Abbott is on a winner there.
Best comment about the latest thought bubble in UK, I come across is:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/civil-service-job-cuts-more-3143284
“This government needs to be sectioned under the mental act !”
I’m not surprise many ALP supporters think a RC into unions might be a good idea for whilst unions do many good things they do sometimes let themselves down as we have seen in recent times.
Some of the unions tactics and attitudes need to change to be more in line with community expectations this in turn may help to attack members which of course would be a positive outcome for them.
attack = attract
Diogenes
It doesn’t require too much deep thinking for a progressive to be against union corruption. However rare it may actually be.
@Psephos/166
That’s what Rudd stated when he asked for top job again.
“I’m going to far right”.
167
Abbott is on a winner with he idea of an RC into unions. We shall have to see whether the reality of an RC into unions is a winner for Abbott or drags his popularity along the bottom of the harbour.
[Just stating political facts, comrade. And I don’t see what’s “far right” about having an orderly immigration program]
It’s not a fact. It’s a factoid.
You could equally argue that unions have been the biggest topic in the last two weeks, esp corruption and unions making businesses uncompetitive.
[If the Rudd forces weren’t undermining Gillard all the time Labor would be doing better.]
Oh wait…..if the plan to destroy Rudd (Labor) to protect factional power…..or if a certain PM had stood down sooner…..as it was 26 were saved and make a victory next time possible, rather than impossible…. Seems the factionalistas did everything possible to ensure destruction of govt, to protect their own little selves…
YEH… and of course it is the hard right wing of the Labor that gets more extreme every day…next you will see some of the wankers supporting fire on AS boats and making the occasional death a necessary cost… you know to protect Australia (Israel) from those types…
How long before Shorten stops opposing the RC?
at
It’s more whether people are convinced that union corruption is common enough and serious enough to warrant an expensive RC.
It looks like Abbott has convinced people (I should add he hasn’t convinced me).
Okay, people are talking about fucking Kevin Rudd again, I’m off. Night.
[However rare it may actually be.]
It wasn’t rare in the HSU, but at least that’s already known, and the HSU has changed its name and not an ALP affiliate.
I think the real worry is the CFMEU, which has a cult-like internal culture of militancy (inherited from the old BLF) which often crosses over into illegality and in some cases corruption. The CFMEU is an affiliate and is a pillar of the Left.
[You could equally argue that unions have been the biggest topic in the last two weeks, esp corruption and unions making businesses uncompetitive.]
Yes you could.
Union corruption may be rare but the high profile of the cases of Thomson and Williamson give a public perception of a union movement in crisis. It is no surprise the coalition are successfully using this wedge
I don’t think the government has shown evidence of corruption as such but some of the unions behavior and tactics are seen by many as unnecessarily aggressive and nasty which in turn has added to the decline in membership.
Psephos – you’re smart enough to know that the general voting public think all unions are part of both the ALP and the ACTU.
Do you think they should start an education campaign to disabuse the public of that notion?
The radicalisation of politics through extreme pragmatism and because it is pragmatic, it is OK you know.
Black and white is just so much easier, requires less effort. Just hate the fuckers you want to hate, and make hating them pragmatic.
26 seats saved yes indeed and the Senate as well
Crank is right, a good example is the CPSU, the public sector union, i didn’t realise that they were not a part of the ALP up until recently.
The MUA are such nice people, too – no past links to the Painters and Dockers (who were complete saints).
When unions and the ALP shoot themselves in the foot again and again and again and again and then one more time for good luck, it’s hardly a surprise when it’s used successfully against them.
The unions and the ALP have continued to turn blind eyes to the rotten apples in their ranks and it has to stop. “No tolerance” apparently means actually quite a lot of tolerance. There’s no explanation for HSU or NSW ALP corruption or CFMEU links to organized crime.
And it’s no good saying “but there are crooks in business as well” – of course there are. They all need to be tackled, but tackling this shit needs to start at home, and for the ALP and the unions that means actually having “no tolerance” for dodginess within their ranks, not just saying the words.
If the ALP and the unions had kept their houses clean, this RC would be a political disaster for the LNP as it would be seen for just the politically motivated witch hunt that it is. But if you give your opponents ammunition then you had better bloody well expect them to use it.
Personally I couldn’t care less if the ALP get sunk by their union ties. Unions are important organizations, I have no problems with the concept of labour organizing itself for collective action etc. But as a political junkie who can’t stand to see the anti-science conservative direction the country is taking, I cannot forgive the fact that one of our two major parties has shackled itself to the union movement such that the ALP bleeds support every time any member of the union movement does something wrong.
It’s not sustainable, and if we are relying on an alternative viable political voice into the future, it can’t be one that is hostage to the good behaviour and public reputation of the unions.
@CC/183
So where do you stand on TPP? If Unions are so corrupt if that’s the case?
The HSU has a lot to answer for.
Oakshot @185 – the Senate was the crucial one.
Yes he saved us there – we got a whole quota in both SA and WA
Zoidy @189 I’m a big believer in Two Party Preferred voting – it has brought about stable government for over a century. Not sure what that’s got to do with unions and the RC.
[The MUA are such nice people, too – no past links to the Painters and Dockers (who were complete saints).]
I’ve not heard any suggestion of corruption in the MUA. The Painters and Dockers haven’t existed for about 30 years.
PUP saved the ALP’s arse again too – just like One Nation before it.
@CC/193
I mean Trade Negotiations not 2PP voting.
[I think the real worry is the CFMEU, which has a cult-like internal culture of militancy (inherited from the old BLF) which often crosses over into illegality and in some cases corruption.]
In WA there is also the MUA which is asserting itself on the party structure.
Psephos – well, let’s just leave it at it could get very interesting if RC investigators have been on their game for the MUA – and my knowledge is just of the WA antics.
Jachol is right on the money and this is part of the problem for many union supporters retort with the line but business is shonky, this misses the point.
Many employees work to live, they know that there are shonky employers and all they want is too first avoid those shonks and second earn a good living to live on.
They don’t care for the employer as they are confidence that they can move onto another job.
Many union supporters particularly the blue coller unions and older members are still looking to fight the old battles and don’t quite get that most workers have moved on.
Making this worst there have been many occasions when the unions have been slow to respond to issues in the workplace which gives the impression of being useless.
If unions focus on there core responsibilities they may find the public’s perception will improve and membership may rise with that.
Zoidy @196 Don’t really understand what trade negotiations have to do with the current Union thread – re you throwing out some Red Herring Bait?
From what I’ve seen of the TPP issue – it certainly has lefties knickers in a knot on top of a twisted hernia. It is unlikely to be the economic Armageddon that TPP opponents claim. Good thing is it focusses them on something that is unlikely to have any impact on votes.. and it is only one of many negotiating issues – we’ll just have to wait and see if an agreement can be reached and what’s in it. Trade deals are never perfect and always upset someone – but they’re better than not having a deal.