Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor in Ashgrove

A new poll from Galaxy gives Labor a match-winning lead in Campbell Newman’s seat of Ashgrove.

GhostWhoVotes relates a Galaxy poll conducted for the Nine Network has Labor with a decisive lead of 43% to 41% on the primary vote in Campbell Newman’s precariously held Brisbane seat of Ashgrove, with the Greens on 7%. This pans out to a 53-47 lead to Labor on two-party preferred. The poll also has 44% respondents saying the bikie laws have made them less likely to vote for Newman compared with 30% for more likely. The sample is reportedly 500, suggesting to me that it’s probably a robo-poll, with which Galaxy had a fairly good record at the federal election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

15 thoughts on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor in Ashgrove”

  1. @docantk #2

    Palaszczuk says that “she would like Kate Jones to run again in Ashgrove, but the former Labor MP has other things on her mind right now.”

    “I’ve had preliminary discussions with Kate Jones of course, but I think Kate is due to have a baby within the week so we’ll let Kate concentrate on having her baby and then I’ll have a catch-up with her in the very near future.”

    Source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-14/poll-finds-newman-would-lose-his-brisbane-seat-to-labor/5261444

  2. I think that result is the reality of current polling in QLD. Being premier won’t save Newman in Ashgrove on current polling and attitudes. Newman has said and done some really stupid things in recent months.

  3. Kate Jones has been invisible for the last two years, and I think she genuinely has not made up her mind what she will do.

    Oddly enough, Kate’s strategy of a VERY low profile seems to have worked ie to show the residents what they are missing.

    Mind you there is low profile and NO profile.

    Kate would not be opposed if she runs – or at least I have no inkling of any other likely candidate. No hopeful (actually only one perennial hopeful) turns up at branch functions to garner votes.

    Quite a lot of nurses in the electorate and they are furious.

    I think Campbell Newman has not managed to win over the young women voters, ie the ones with kids at school etc. These were going to vote for Kate until the last disastrous 4 days of the campaign (the whole fraud affair and the CJC).

    Newman’s wife does all the electorate work and I get mixed reports. However I see clear signs of her being actively disliked by some middle of the road voters.

    Business is not especially good in the area, with quite a few shops for lease in The Gap, Keperra and Ashgrove. The Gap also is home to a LOT of public servants. It is the nature of the area ie leafy green middle class but with mid to low range housing stock which makes it affordable.

    At least one small pocket on the outedermost

  4. At least one small pocket on the outermost edge of the electorate will have suffered by the bikie legislation, since their Satuday and Sunday trade was dependent upon hordes of bikies.

    William if you or others are doing detailed psephology, look to any change in voting in booths in Pine Rivers electorate Samford, Dayborough, Mt Nebo, Mt Glorious. These urban fringe towns will be badly affected by the loss of the bikie trade.

  5. Good to see the voters of Ashgrove are “fool me once” type people. They know what Newman is like now, and will not be fooled twice.

    The thing about the bikie laws is that it reinforces a theme that Newman is an authoritarian ex- army officer, not a consensus builder. That will not change, even if the laws are scrapped.

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