Galaxy: 55-45 to Liberal in South Australia

The first poll of a South Australian election year shows the Liberals with a decisive lead in the wake of Labor’s recent travails.

The Advertiser reports a Galaxy poll of 849 respondents conducted last night and the night before has the Liberals with a 55-45 lead on two-party preferred, a small but very handy gain on the 54-46 it recorded from Galaxy in November, and the 53-47 from Newspoll’s quarterly October-to-December result. Galaxy puts the Liberals on 46% of the primary vote, compared with 35% for Labor and 7% for the Greens.

The accompanying report by Daniel Wills further relates that the Liberals are feeling “bullish” about the Whyalla-based seat of Giles, which Labor holds by 11.9% but faces the retirement of sitting member Lyn Breuer, and Mount Gambier, a naturally conservative seat which passed from one independent to another in 2010. Conversely, Labor is said to be hopeful of recovering the seat of Adelaide, where it presumably believes the decisive 14.5% Liberal swing in 2010 was driven by one-off local issues.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

21 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to Liberal in South Australia”

  1. When Labor is coming up with crap like this, you know they are desperate.

    [O-BAHN users have been promised a $160 million upgrade of the service — including an underpass from Hackney to the city — aimed at cutting travel times by four minutes. ]

    $160M for the Obahn to cut 4 minutes off the travel time.

  2. These are exactly the numbers I’d expect after the Don Farrell stuff, although I think the results will be slightly narrower on election day (although still a clear Lib win)

    and Mod Lib, I wouldn’t be too smug, that policy is still absolutely visionary compared to the bullshit your lot are proposing – including the economically ridiculous plan to give all power of construction and development approvals back to the irresponsible and myopic local councils.

  3. Quite right CM, planning decisions should be made by the Planning Minister alone after a suitable amount of money has been donated to Progressive Business Pty Ltd.
    We’re not as bad as NSW, but gee, some in the ALP in SA want to give it a shake.

  4. Note: IT, when you decide to interact with me in a way that isn’t a condescending straw man, I will acknowledge your remarks. Until then, I couldn’t give two shits what your opinions are.

  5. This election really is a lose/lose for voters. All transport and road congestion bullshit because that’s where all the marginal seats are located. The Liberals will win, quickly lose discipline and will revert to the way they usually behave in this state.

    As for the ALP, what an emerging train wreck! It’s like the beginning of the rot setting in ala NSW.

    Dignity for the Disabled look like the way to go for this one.

  6. The ALP are obviously in big trouble in SA. The main problem the Liberals have, however, is ousting a number of popular local members. Paul Caica, Leon Bignell, Tony Piccolo, Steph Key are the most notable of those. They also have the potential of a sophomore surge to deal with in Mitchell (Alan Sibbons).

    The Liberals also need to win back seats from the independents, most notably in Frome and Mt Gambier (potential sophomore surge for Don Pegler). They can forget about Bob Such in Fisher, he will either retire eventually or die in office before the Liberals win this seat back. In Elder, Annabel Digance has a much higher than average profile, and whilst she isn’t technically the incumbent, her recognition profile in the seat is very high.

    This paints a much trickier pathway than what the polls are showing. I expect them to tighten unless something stratospheric happens. I’m conceding Bright and Hartley as most likely to be gone. Newland also pretty shaky. If all 3 of these fall, then 3 are still needed for majority Liberal government.

    The key seat for me is still Adelaide. If somehow Labor can win Adelaide back, the Liberals are really in some difficulty. Most of my Labor retaining government scenarios involve Adelaide being won back by the ALP.

    My prediction for the election ranges from Liberal majority government to Labor minority government. It is highly unlikely that the Liberals will be able to form a minority government due to their toxic relationship with the independents.

    This election is still likely to be a lot closer than what current popular opinion might say.

  7. No doubt the Libs will bolt in despite having:
    1. Diddly squat policy
    2. A sophomore leader who stands for nothing
    3. A destructive federal government of the same ilk
    4. A raft of ALP candidates who are far above average
    5. An opponent that has delivered – a great new hospital well on the way, rail electrification, a brilliant new Adelaide Oval.

    When it’s time, I guess it’s time.

  8. TT

    We will have to see how the New RAH works. It certainly isn’t “great” until we see how it functions.

    It’s too small and doesn’t have the WCH attached which is a bad mistake.

  9. Dio
    [When Labor is coming up with crap like this, you know they are desperate.

    O-BAHN users have been promised a $160 million upgrade of the service — including an underpass from Hackney to the city — aimed at cutting travel times by four minutes.

    $160M for the Obahn to cut 4 minutes off the travel time.]
    I must agree, this smacks of desperation. The last project was messed up by lack of consultation and failing to stitch up a deal with Adelaide City Council. Now this tunnel comes out of left field in a similar style. Reminds me of the promises to duplicate the Southern Expressway, which had $300 million thrown at it for no good reason.

    It is depressing to work in infrastructure, and see the punlic interest thrown out the wondow every election.

  10. Labor looses a True Believer, son of late sernator Geoff McLaren.

    [AROLD Geoffrey McLaren was born on November 15, 1941, to Geoffrey Thomas and Beryl McLaren (nee Jennings) in Portland, Victoria.

    As a young lad Harold lived with his parents in Portland before the family relocated to Murray Bridge when Harold was just nine years of age.

    He passed the rest of his life in the town.

    Harold attended Murray Bridge primary and high schools before joining ETSA in Murray Bridge as an apprentice electrical fitter.

    He worked in Murray Bridge and Adelaide and rose to become Supervising Electrical Inspector at Murray Bridge.

    Harold’s great passions were sport and local history.

    He played football for Ramblers.

    After injury cut short his own playing days Harold took up football umpiring.

    He amassed an astonishing umpiring record of over 700 games over 40 years from 1968 until 2008.

    He took particular interest in mentoring junior players and umpires.

    Harold was also an accomplished cricketer, having played for High School, Ramblers and Monarto.

    He also devoted nearly 20 years to editing the Monarto Cricket Club newsletter and establishing and maintaining the clubs statistical records.

    Sports journalism was another key interest and Harold wrote sports reports for The Murray Valley Standard for over 50 years.

    He particularly loved writing his weekly Sports Scene column, providing media reporting for many lesser-known sports in the district.

    Harold achieved the milestone of 1000 consecutive columns for the paper in September 2013, an astounding achievement of which he was justifiably proud.

    Harold held life membership of the Murray Towns Cricket Association, the Monarto Cricket Club, the Imperial Cricket Club, the River Murray Football League and the River Murray Football League Umpires Panel.

    He also assisted and held a number of honorary roles with other sporting groups, including the Lower Murray Baseball League, the Christian Reserve Sporting Facility, the Combined Churches Indoor Bowls, charity cricket and Masters football.

    His interest in the history of the Murray Bridge area was wide reaching.

    He self-published books on the history of the Murray Bridge ALP Branch, the electricity supply in Murray Bridge and neighbouring towns, local adult education, the River Murray Football League and the Murray Bridge Croquet Club, among others.

    He also maintained a keen involvement in the Murray Bridge Historical Society.

    His personal archive of sporting records and statistics must be one of the most comprehensive of any town in the country.

    Harold also had a strong involvement in local adult education and a building at the Swanport Road TAFE college is named in his honour.

    Throughout his life, Harold was a staunch Labor Party supporter and he stood as a candidate in a number of State and Federal elections.

    He served as secretary and treasurer of the local ALP branch for nearly 50 years and held a life membership.

    He was also a Justice of the Peace and always took time to assist those seeking his advice.

    Harold was a true icon in the local community.

    His interest in a wide range of local issues was shown by the numerous Letters to the Editor that he wrote over more than 50 years.

    His many achievements were formally recognized by the award of a Centenary Medal and “Living Treasure” status in 2003, by a SA Great Regional Award in 2006, and by the joint 2014 Murray Bridge Citizen of the Year honour, presented just a few days before his death.

    He was well known for his deep commitment to the local community and his personal integrity.

    He was hardworking, intelligent and led an exemplary life.

    He will be sadly missed by his family and by many sporting and community groups.

    Harold was always supported in his work and his sporting and history interests by his wife Noeline.

    They were married for over 43 years.

    Harold died on January 30, 2014, aged 72, from mesothelioma, the asbestos-related cancer.

    He continued to work throughout his illness and his last Sports Scene column, number 1018, was published nine days before his death.

    Harold is survived by Noeline; his son Craig, daughter-in-law Martina and grandson Lucas; and his daughter Sandra, son-in-law Richard and granddaughter Elsa]

  11. One of three things is going to happen:

    1. Voting intention hardens since Farrell’s foolish intervention and the Liberals cruise to an easy victory by taking full advantage of it.

    2. The issues dominate the campaign and the ALP are able to swing undecideds by creating uncertainty over the Liberals lack of detailed policies, Marshall’s lack of a profile and a targeted marginal seat campaign like they did in 2010 (the idea behind Jay4SA might be trying to exploit this very thing)

    3. What happened at the federal election last year where voters turn off both parties, go with their pre-existing positions and when available, vote independent or third party en masse. Family First might do very well at this election given Brokenshire did a very good job during this term of parliament.

  12. Can anyone tell me what the current state of seats is in South Australia assuming the redistributions and no swing?

    (In other words which seats nominally changed hands based on the redistribution?)

  13. Anybody else think it’s a bit queer that we’re getting more polling from Tasmania than SA? I mean I don’t expect one every day but there is an election on now, I’d like something more than the occasional Galaxy.

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