The Advertiser reports a Galaxy poll of 849 respondents conducted last night and the night before has the Liberals with a 55-45 lead on two-party preferred, a small but very handy gain on the 54-46 it recorded from Galaxy in November, and the 53-47 from Newspoll’s quarterly October-to-December result. Galaxy puts the Liberals on 46% of the primary vote, compared with 35% for Labor and 7% for the Greens.
The accompanying report by Daniel Wills further relates that the Liberals are feeling “bullish” about the Whyalla-based seat of Giles, which Labor holds by 11.9% but faces the retirement of sitting member Lyn Breuer, and Mount Gambier, a naturally conservative seat which passed from one independent to another in 2010. Conversely, Labor is said to be hopeful of recovering the seat of Adelaide, where it presumably believes the decisive 14.5% Liberal swing in 2010 was driven by one-off local issues.
Tick tock, tick tock……
Do you think the ALP will learn the Don Farrell lesson?
Nope…me neither :devil:
When Labor is coming up with crap like this, you know they are desperate.
$160M for the Obahn to cut 4 minutes off the travel time.
$160 for 4 minutes……that would be quite efficient spending for the ALP! :devil:
These are exactly the numbers I’d expect after the Don Farrell stuff, although I think the results will be slightly narrower on election day (although still a clear Lib win)
and Mod Lib, I wouldn’t be too smug, that policy is still absolutely visionary compared to the bullshit your lot are proposing – including the economically ridiculous plan to give all power of construction and development approvals back to the irresponsible and myopic local councils.
Quite right CM, planning decisions should be made by the Planning Minister alone after a suitable amount of money has been donated to Progressive Business Pty Ltd.
We’re not as bad as NSW, but gee, some in the ALP in SA want to give it a shake.
Note: IT, when you decide to interact with me in a way that isn’t a condescending straw man, I will acknowledge your remarks. Until then, I couldn’t give two shits what your opinions are.
This election really is a lose/lose for voters. All transport and road congestion bullshit because that’s where all the marginal seats are located. The Liberals will win, quickly lose discipline and will revert to the way they usually behave in this state.
As for the ALP, what an emerging train wreck! It’s like the beginning of the rot setting in ala NSW.
Dignity for the Disabled look like the way to go for this one.
Looks like we are about to enter the “Dark Ages” with the Libs in control all over the place!.
The ALP are obviously in big trouble in SA. The main problem the Liberals have, however, is ousting a number of popular local members. Paul Caica, Leon Bignell, Tony Piccolo, Steph Key are the most notable of those. They also have the potential of a sophomore surge to deal with in Mitchell (Alan Sibbons).
The Liberals also need to win back seats from the independents, most notably in Frome and Mt Gambier (potential sophomore surge for Don Pegler). They can forget about Bob Such in Fisher, he will either retire eventually or die in office before the Liberals win this seat back. In Elder, Annabel Digance has a much higher than average profile, and whilst she isn’t technically the incumbent, her recognition profile in the seat is very high.
This paints a much trickier pathway than what the polls are showing. I expect them to tighten unless something stratospheric happens. I’m conceding Bright and Hartley as most likely to be gone. Newland also pretty shaky. If all 3 of these fall, then 3 are still needed for majority Liberal government.
The key seat for me is still Adelaide. If somehow Labor can win Adelaide back, the Liberals are really in some difficulty. Most of my Labor retaining government scenarios involve Adelaide being won back by the ALP.
My prediction for the election ranges from Liberal majority government to Labor minority government. It is highly unlikely that the Liberals will be able to form a minority government due to their toxic relationship with the independents.
This election is still likely to be a lot closer than what current popular opinion might say.
No doubt the Libs will bolt in despite having:
1. Diddly squat policy
2. A sophomore leader who stands for nothing
3. A destructive federal government of the same ilk
4. A raft of ALP candidates who are far above average
5. An opponent that has delivered – a great new hospital well on the way, rail electrification, a brilliant new Adelaide Oval.
When it’s time, I guess it’s time.
TT
We will have to see how the New RAH works. It certainly isn’t “great” until we see how it functions.
It’s too small and doesn’t have the WCH attached which is a bad mistake.
It’s not looking good for Labor, but it’s certainly not a completely lost cause like Tasmania is.
Dio
I must agree, this smacks of desperation. The last project was messed up by lack of consultation and failing to stitch up a deal with Adelaide City Council. Now this tunnel comes out of left field in a similar style. Reminds me of the promises to duplicate the Southern Expressway, which had $300 million thrown at it for no good reason.
It is depressing to work in infrastructure, and see the punlic interest thrown out the wondow every election.
Labor looses a True Believer, son of late sernator Geoff McLaren.
Loses a True Believer
One of three things is going to happen:
1. Voting intention hardens since Farrell’s foolish intervention and the Liberals cruise to an easy victory by taking full advantage of it.
2. The issues dominate the campaign and the ALP are able to swing undecideds by creating uncertainty over the Liberals lack of detailed policies, Marshall’s lack of a profile and a targeted marginal seat campaign like they did in 2010 (the idea behind Jay4SA might be trying to exploit this very thing)
3. What happened at the federal election last year where voters turn off both parties, go with their pre-existing positions and when available, vote independent or third party en masse. Family First might do very well at this election given Brokenshire did a very good job during this term of parliament.
Out of those three, I think the third scenario is the most likely outcome
I reckon the ALP’s campaign will try and do this sort of ad without the personality for Jay while going outrageously negative on the other side
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-eKk2bsK08
Can anyone tell me what the current state of seats is in South Australia assuming the redistributions and no swing?
(In other words which seats nominally changed hands based on the redistribution?)
Anybody else think it’s a bit queer that we’re getting more polling from Tasmania than SA? I mean I don’t expect one every day but there is an election on now, I’d like something more than the occasional Galaxy.
ReachTEL
ALP 45, Liberal 55