Crikey reports that Essential Research, which looks like the only poll we’re getting this week, is once again unchanged on two-party preferred, with the Coalition leading 51-49. However, both parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two points to 43% and Labor by one point to 37%, while the Greens are up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party is steady on 4%. It should be noted that this result compares a two-week average with last week’s debut figures derived from one week of polling only, so a two-point primary vote change from this notoriously stable series is less striking than it would be normally. Also featured are results on asylum seeker policy (broadly favourable to the government) and climate change (51% caused by human activity, 39% part of a normal fluctuation), on which more shortly.
UPDATE: Full Essential report here. Another figure to emerge is a deterioration in perceptions of the state of the economy, with the total good rating down six points since immediately after the election to 34% and poor up one to 26%. Thirty-eight per cent now believe it heading in the right direction, down six, against 33% for the wrong direction, up seven. Respondents were asked whether things would get better or worse under the Coalition government across a range of measures, with remarkable results – large majorities of respondents expecting pretty much everything to get worse, with the singular exception of company profits. The figures are worse across the board for the government than immediately after the election, most remarkably so in relation to unemployment (from a net rating of minus 10% to minus 23%) and cost of living (minus 13% to minus 35%).
On asylum seekers, only 30% believe most are genuine refugees against 47% who believe most are not, and 22% believe the government too tough versus 25% for too soft and 35% for taking the right approach. Fifty-two per cent think recent extreme temperatures likely to be related to climate change, versus 34% who think otherwise.
shellbell
Go Phil! He is a class act.
mari – In the Libs? Yep, no doubt.
Interesting article on Solar contridicting an article in the AFR which rubbished the performance of solar
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/1/21/wind-power/solar-pv-was-heatwave-saviour
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/premier-targets-eddie-obeids-millions-made-in-corrupt-coal-deal-20140121-3165z.html
“The state government is set to pass extraordinary laws to strip corrupt former Labor minister Eddie Obeid and his family of at least $30 million in profits from a coal deal at the centre of a historic corruption probe.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/premier-targets-eddie-obeids-millions-made-in-corrupt-coal-deal-20140121-3165z.html#ixzz2r0QtOWaC
CTAR1
Yes I meant the Libs
CTar1@98
Well isn’t that amazing!
A group of Melbourne Club members are Victorians!
Now, just remind me where Melbourne is? 😆
mb – I haven’t read all the contributions on the topic, but my impression was the attacks over power cuts were related more to wind power rather than solar because one of the very hot days was very calm over both SA and Victoria resulting in a significant drop off in wind power that day when demand was very high.
Beamer- the AFR is just a bulletin board for the cash-for-comment machine called the Institute for Public Affairs.
That debate here a few days ago about the powers of State governments to pass any old kind of legislation was prescient.
[92
ruawake
Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 3:38 pm | PERMALINK
I am waiting for my phone call from Bill Shorten at 6.30 tonight, will let bludgers know what he says, (if you’se are nice and play well together).]
We are always nice. 🙂
mari
After a wee bit of hoots mon yesterday a “big” story from NZ today which shows it is alive and well over there.
[Anthony Earl was the other firefighter who helped in the rescue of the boy’s hand.
“The mother had three wee kiddies there, she was very distressed to see her boy in pain. It definitely wasn’t her fault. The wee boy was very stoic, he didn’t cry,” said Mr Bowden]
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11189875
Poroti 111
Love it, I thought it would have been in Dunedin or Invercargill they are the real scottish towns arn’t they?
[government across a range of measures, with remarkable results – large majorities of respondents expecting pretty much every to get worse]
William, is there a word missing here? Or should it be “everything”?
Sounds like the Nauru sackings are to do with what our government wants. Look where they wanted the cases heard. No press for sure there.
[Amid the judicial crisis, it has also emerged that both Mr Law and Justice Eames resisted the Nauruan government’s push for the trials of asylum seekers charged with rioting to be held inside the island’s detention centre, rather than in open court.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/naurus-justice-department-details-complaints-against-magistrate-peter-law-20140121-316hp.html
Shorten is actually a more substantial figure intellectually than many on the left give him credit for. His campaign for national disability insurance was by no means original, but it was effective in moving the issue up Labor’s policy agenda. We still have a long way to go until 2019, but if a robust and comprehensive national disability scheme does get implemented, Shorten will have played an instrumental role in one of the largest extensions of the Australian welfare state in decades.
https://newmatilda.com/2014/01/21/shorten-needs-talk-about-inequality
mari
Yes but that particular word is all over.
[Or should it be “everything”?]
Corrected.
Poroti116
In the south Island mainly? I have friends in Auckland who never use it
[Such a public event to elect a new leader was always going to cultivate internal & external rivalry/divisiveness.
One reaps what one sows.]
Yeah coz the leadership was never an issue under the old system with Rudd or Gillard.
Thumps face into desk.
[government across a range of measures, with remarkable results – large majorities of respondents expecting pretty much everything to get worse]
A cunning plan from the LNP . Get people thinking 100% of things will head south so when “only” 75% of things head south people will feel great relief and think it an LNP success.
[ “@latikambourke: Kevin Andrews on @BreakfastNews says the disability pension is a ‘set and forget system’ where people qualify and rarely reassessed.” ]
So I guess the several reviews I have had over the years (under both sides of politics) were just my fevered imagination?
Funny how Kevin Andrews talks about 5 million people receiving “Welfare” (horrid US term) and the media go into a conniption fit over Newstart and DSP (a mere 1.5 million).
Andrews is kite flying, but one area he is almost silent on is “Parenting Payments”.
If you receive:
[Baby Bonus
Child Care Benefit
Child Care Rebate
Dad and Partner Pay
Family Tax Benefit
Newborn Upfront Payment and Newborn Supplement
Parental Leave Pay
Parenting Payment
Schoolkids Bonus
Single Income Family Supplement]
Look out, Andrews is looking at your bank balance.
Shellbell
Thanks for the NSW Bar Association statement.
At last someone is calling for enforcement of the existing Responsible Service of Alcohol law.
And of course as the statement points out, the moment politicians endorse mandatory sentencing you know for sure they don’t give a shit about finding an effective solution and are happy just to endorse the ignorant populist view that tough sentences will effect (for the better) the cognitions of people who are already drunk.
mari
The pointy bit above Auckland use it. Lots of Scots settlers and all that. As for people from Auckland the rest of the country refer to them “affectionately” 😉 as JAFAs . ( Just another fricken Aucklander )
[Diogenes
Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 4:41 pm | PERMALINK
Such a public event to elect a new leader was always going to cultivate internal & external rivalry/divisiveness.
One reaps what one sows.
Yeah coz the leadership was never an issue under the old system with Rudd or Gillard.
Thumps face into desk.]
Careful with that face or you may need a cosmetic surgeon?
:devil:
Poroti
Many thanks for my Kiwi lesson
Things I think Andrews will do to social security payments.
Change the indexation for pensions from the highest of CPI, PCPI or MAWOTE to the lowest.
Abolish the June 30th $600 or $1200 Carer supplement.
Tighten Family Tax benefit part B. Change the 35% care limit to 50%
Sneaky tweaks more than the reform required.
mari
[Careful with that face or you may need a cosmetic surgeon?
:devil: ]
PB has an excellent tree surgeon we can recommend 😉
Fairfax’s Peter Martin is suggesting that andrews will want to close the gap between Newstart and the DSP, which is about 250 dollars a fortnight, anyone care to suggest how this might happen?
My bet it won’t be by increasing Newstart.
he also rabbits on about how five million Australians are on benefits. Perhaps he might like to give a breakdown of how many of those are middle classes getting the non means tested family tax payments. Or rich superannuants who arrange their affairs so they can collect just a few dollars of the age pension but all the benefits that go with it.
Some may be interested in this –
[ ANNUAL REPORT TO US CONGRESS
Military and Security Developments
Involving the People’s Republic of China 2013 ]
http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2013_china_report_final.pdf
Excellent critique of Pyne and his bogus curriculum war in Crikey.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/01/21/our-education-curriculum-was-not-political-it-will-be-if-pyne-gets-his-way/
Why doesn’t the government introduce a wealth tax?
In principle, I’m DEADLY against wealth taxes. Taxes should be applied fairly to all. Of course billionaires and mega millions don’t pay taxes fairly – that’s problem!
I believe people should be taxed ONCE and that should not be based on their wealth but on earnings. You hit them once, hard, but fairly with a PROGRESSIVE system of taxation – somewhat similar to coy tax.
But when we have the situation where 85 people own more than half of the entire wealth in the world – we have a BIG problem.
In the interim, lets tax mega millionaires at, say 10% above $100 million, 25% above $500 million and 50% above $1 billion.
You get them to prepare a properly audited PERSONAL balance sheet and give them the following financial year to liquidate and pay the tax office.
They’ve got more money than they can spend or ever need anyway.
This useless Abbott government can weaken the power of spending, with their smokescreen commission of audit, at its own peril!
9poroti
Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 5:17 pm | PERMALINK
mari
Careful with that face or you may need a cosmetic surgeon?
:devil:
Funny I was thinking of the same recommendation 😀
PB has an excellent tree surgeon we can recommend 😉
dave
Great link, thanks.
I wonder what the real report said?
The Essential figures on refugees is disgraceful. 47% think most are not genuine for god’s sake. I feel ashamed to be an Australian sometimes.
If Andrews is worried about the aging population, how about increasing the Super Levy to 20%.
Bye bye old age pension in 30 years.
[ I wonder what the real report said? ]
BW – thinking the same as I scan through it. 🙂
Yesiree Bob@11
Yes, bring back Macguire Bob the eternal optimist, where is he?
Just further to post 132.
Say Packer must prepare a properly audited personal balance sheet as at 30/6/14.
His net wealth may be say exactly $7 billion.
Packer then has the following financial year to liquidate 50% of $6 billion to pay the tax office.
That’s $3 bloody billion with just one person.
He will never go hungry without any food don’t worry.
Let’s go for it 😯
mh
Of course most are genuine. There are around 45,000,000 genuine refugees. Many millions more are being created every year.
And, really, that is before the hundreds of millions of climate change refugees get mobilized whether they want to or not.
As Stalin is reported to have said, quantity has a quality all of its own.
oh oh
Boerwar, naughty.
Somebody left the door to the italics cupboard open again.
Closed it.
Bees have virtually disappeared from our vegie garden this summer. Germination of certain vegetables has stalled. Other amateur jardinier bee watchers are saying the same.
Was bist?
Boerwar – the first step is to admit you have a problem with italics.
Then you need to go cold turkey on italics – you know you can’t handle them even in small quantities.
And make sure you visit your Italics Anonymous group regularly to receive support for when you feel yourself slipping and wanting to go on a slant binge.
William
My fault. Thank you.
[Jackol
Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 6:17 pm | Permalink
Boerwar – the first step is to admit you have a problem with italics.
Then you need to go cold turkey on italics – you know you can’t handle them even in small quantities.
And make sure you visit your Italics Anonymous group regularly to receive support for when you feel yourself slipping and wanting to go on a slant binge.]
I prefer to think that italics have a problem with me.
Bushfire Bill @76
Nice post, good to see you back on form (not that you ever weren’t).
BTW, someone asked the produce for the ABC – In Bed with Julia why they didn’t make a similar series on Abbott. The reply was WTTE that the didn’t think Abbott was an interesting enough person.
I still feel sick about what happened with Julia Gillard.
Morrison is probably not going to get away with crossing his fingers behind his back and stating that the seismic fracture in Nauru’s governance has got nothing to do with Australia in general or with the Abbott Government’s asylum seeker policies in particular.