Crikey reports that Essential Research, which looks like the only poll we’re getting this week, is once again unchanged on two-party preferred, with the Coalition leading 51-49. However, both parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two points to 43% and Labor by one point to 37%, while the Greens are up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party is steady on 4%. It should be noted that this result compares a two-week average with last week’s debut figures derived from one week of polling only, so a two-point primary vote change from this notoriously stable series is less striking than it would be normally. Also featured are results on asylum seeker policy (broadly favourable to the government) and climate change (51% caused by human activity, 39% part of a normal fluctuation), on which more shortly.
UPDATE: Full Essential report here. Another figure to emerge is a deterioration in perceptions of the state of the economy, with the total good rating down six points since immediately after the election to 34% and poor up one to 26%. Thirty-eight per cent now believe it heading in the right direction, down six, against 33% for the wrong direction, up seven. Respondents were asked whether things would get better or worse under the Coalition government across a range of measures, with remarkable results – large majorities of respondents expecting pretty much everything to get worse, with the singular exception of company profits. The figures are worse across the board for the government than immediately after the election, most remarkably so in relation to unemployment (from a net rating of minus 10% to minus 23%) and cost of living (minus 13% to minus 35%).
On asylum seekers, only 30% believe most are genuine refugees against 47% who believe most are not, and 22% believe the government too tough versus 25% for too soft and 35% for taking the right approach. Fifty-two per cent think recent extreme temperatures likely to be related to climate change, versus 34% who think otherwise.
Disappointing poll for the ALP given the destructiveness of this Govt.
The ALP have been asleep at the wheel in holding the Govt to account.
WB, lets get this straight, Essential is the only poll that has the Government in front. All other polls show the ALP leading the Coalition.
Is it normal for Essential to differ somewhat ?
Such a public event to elect a new leader was always going to cultivate internal & external rivalry/divisiveness.
One reaps what one sows.
So Rex, can we take it that you’re quite happy to see Abbott elected for a second time ?
YB Essential had a Labor in a theoretical winning position right up to the September 2013 election. It tends not to bounce around as much as the others and seems somewhat resistant to short-term noise.
I doubt the LNP is ahead at this stage but we will have to wait another two weeks for any reliable guide.
Apart from that polls mean nothing this far out from an election – spoken for and on behalf of Meguire Bob (does anyone else miss Bob’s unyielding positivity?). Heaven knows we could do with a bit of positivity here at present.
@Rex Douglas 1
[Disappointing poll for the ALP given the destructiveness of this Govt.
The ALP have been asleep at the wheel in holding the Govt to account.]
Given that Essential is notorious for being off-trend and is the only poll in town still showing the Government (just) in front, your Chicken Little routine doesn’t hold much water.
Still three years to go. No need for the ALP to burn themselves out just yet, nor for Shorten to create a standard impossible for him to meet if elected, a la Abbott and (to a lesser degree) Rudd.
And considering that the first opposition leader after an election defeat is usually regarded as not having a snowball’s chance in hell against the PM (especially this early in the cycle), Electric Bill is doing awfully well so far.
Today’s Essential Media PDF file
Some attribute ratings and stuff on the economy too
essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_140121.pdf
[Last week’s labour market statistics spell out the challenge and the threat to the government’s claim to be a good economic manager. The latest unemployment number was basically steady at 5.8 per cent. The worrying number is that the labour market participation rate has dropped in the past three years (covering the main period so far of Labor’s re-regulation of the labour market) from 63.2 per cent in December 2010 to 61.8 per cent.
This means fewer people are working and paying taxes, and more people are on benefits. Des Moore of the H.R.Nicholls Society and formerly of Treasury says the real consequence of the fall-off is that 345,000 capable workers have either dropped out of the workforce (212,000) or are unemployed (133,000). This is a trend Australia cannot, and should not, accept.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-must-grasp-jobs-nettle-now-to-avoid-election-sting-20140120-314pp.html#ixzz2qzjkIOBZ
Reith really misunderstands that labour supply is determined by demographic factors. Rather than market regulation, it is the aging of the population that is reducing the participation rate.
If anything, measures that improve security of employment should be supporting participation. If the US experience is anything to go by, “reform” that weakens wages and erodes security of employment will only drive the marginally-attached out of the labour market.
The other feature of the labour market is stagnant demand for labour, especially when considered in per capita terms. This really reflects weakness in domestic demand and continuing puny growth in domestically-facing investment in the period since the GFC.
Reith is attempting to use the unfolding real depreciation in per capita earnings as an excuse for market deregulation that will harm the most vulnerable and divide the community – a standard LNP tactic.
Essential being stubborn as usual.
I’d kinda like a Newspoll or a Nielsen soon.
[Is it normal for Essential to differ somewhat ?]
When there is a change in the overall trend, it’s normal for Essential to record it more weakly than other pollsters. When Gillard’s polling improved in late 2012, Essential would rile Labor supporters by continuing to come out at 54-46 to the Coalition week after week. But when the Coalition lead blew out as the election campaign progressed, Essential pleased Labor supporters by showing it to be very close.
DavidWH
[Apart from that polls mean nothing this far out from an election – spoken for and on behalf of Meguire Bob (does anyone else miss Bob’s unyielding positivity?). Heaven knows we could do with a bit of positivity here at present.]
I sure as hell miss ole Macguire Bob
YB
Its good to see Thunderbird Bill out and about the last few days.
About time… more of it please !
This destructive Govt needs to be thoroughly held to account with the casual observer being made fully aware of its actions.
Rex Douglas@3
Utter rubbish Rex.
It is a good move for party members to have a direct say in the election of the leader.
Very interesting results from the “what do you expect to get better or worse under an L/NP govt” question in that poll
The old guard can whinge all they want. The democratisation of the ALP leadership process is a natural evolution and I expect the Libs will follow suit before too long (despite their current heckling.)
WB, thanks
Briefly
[If anything, measures that improve security of employment should be supporting participation. If the US experience is anything to go by, “reform” that weakens wages and erodes security of employment will only drive the marginally-attached out of the labour market.]
As we know, the US has the amongst lowest wages of all “western” world, and yet they still have the weakest economy. The idea that low wages lead to jobs growth is an offensive myth.
You really have to winder why the likes of Reith keep proposing such nonesense
[Very interesting results from the “what do you expect to get better or worse under an L/NP govt” question in that poll]
well I expect everything to get worse under Abbott
Caucus electing their own leader is hardly undemocratic.
Yesiree Bob@16
Really?
I don’t wonder at all. Reith is simply an ideologically driven mouthpiece. Evidence is not required for any of his prescriptions.
I’ve been meaning to ask some of the more economically literate and sensible poeple on here what they think about Modern Monetary Theory (I’ve been reading up about it via Bill Mitchell’s blog). It makes considerable sense to me, though I haven’t exactly analysed the details or tried to examine it from first principles, so I’ve been wondering what other people think of it.
Briefly, I’m particularly interested in your take, since you’ve been such a coherent and well thought-out commenter on economics in the past . . .
himi
Rex Douglas@18
Please Rex, tell us your proposal for how the leadership should be determined?
You have ruled out Caucus electing their leader.
You have ruled out the membership having any say.
Bemused, the policies that blokes like Reith propose are the same as what caused the GFC, and yet he is still proposing them
Even Pavlovs old Kelpie caught on, eventually.
Oops… missed the un in undemocratic.
But what is wrong with the party membership being involved?
bemused
Caucus should elect their own leader.
I’ve never suggested otherwise.
Just so happens the current choice of the caucus I feel needs to lift his game.
[1
Rex Douglas
Disappointing poll for the ALP given the destructiveness of this Govt.
The ALP have been asleep at the wheel in holding the Govt to account.]
Once again, not missing an opportunity to sledge Labor.
Those “Better or worse under Liberal/National Government” numbers from Essential are quite something.
@Rex Douglas 18
[Caucus electing their own leader is hardly undemocratic.]
Of course not. It’s a perfectly legitimate method for a party to choose their leader.
However, I can’t see a shred of evidence to support your assertion that opening the vote to the members has somehow negatively affected their public standard or heightened disunity within the party. Quite the opposite, in fact.
In fact, it seems to me that the main reason you keep pushing that line is a refusal to admit that your horror at Labor’s “navel gazing” at the time was completely misplaced.
I think shorten is well advised. First of all, his main target, Abbott has been on holidays, so there is no benefit in being in the media everyday trying to score points.
And the media is just not interested in politics at this time of the year, we have sport and sadly bush fires to distract people. The political animals get fired up by Morrison and the general and the boats but it is a second or third order issue in WA where we also have escaped prisoner scandals and shark hunts to distract us.
One of the criticism of Abbott as LOTO was that he pulled a stunt every day, donning the high vis for a photo op and 30 seconds on the news.
shorten can be above that and he will have plenty of time, remember we are more than two years from the election,
From Essential:
Under the new Liberal/National government, do you expect the following will get better or worse (last time this was asked was Sept 2013):
Political Leadership -5 (-16)
Trust in govt -13 (0)
Unemployment -23 (-13)
The economy overall -8 (-16)
Cost of living -35 (-22)
Interest rates -17 (-3)
Health services -27 (-8)
Job Security -32 (-11)
Workers rights and conditions -31 (-2)
Company Profits +22 (-11)
The environment -25 (-4)
Education and schools -23 (-7)
Public services -29 (-4)
Benefits for people on govt support – such as pensioners and unemployed -36 (-11)
Your personal financial situation -19 (-6)
Pretty awful results given this is much worse than it was when the Coalition were in opposition. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a plunge in the polls especially if Abbott’s personal rating starts to go where Gillard’s went after around 6 months in office
himi@20
Hi himi, I will go and read what Bill Mitchell had to say and maybe get back to you on that.
But I wanted to draw your attention to something else.
Deblonay posted a link to a great article which provides an excellent exposition of Keynesian economics. I commend it to you and anyone else interested in economics.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/01/08/why-fdr-did-not-end-the-great-depression-and-why-obama-wont-end-this-one/
It provides some interesting insights as to what policy prescriptions might be appropriate for the present.
The author has a website here: http://www.alannasser.org/
Asha Leu
I’d much prefer the ALP to get on with informing the public of the level of destructiveness from this Govt than watching it publicly navel-gazing.
[29
spur212
Under the new Liberal/National government, do you expect the following will get better or worse (last time this was asked was Sept 2013):]
The Abbott Despondency. No wonder confidence is tanking.
A bit off-topic but watching a great battle on RLA between two very talented ladies, Ivanovich and Bouchard.
Rex Douglas@31
You mean… like it is already doing?
himi….I think this is a really interesting area and will comment. tks for bringing it up.
Rieth not only opposed to ALP but has no love for Tones so proposes the Libs should be more radical just to cause trouble.
But he’s very much yesterdays man. I don’t know why anyone would take notice of him.
bemused
No time to waste for the ALP – this Govt is a disaster and the casual observer needs to be alerted to it.
[Fifty-two per cent think recent extreme temperatures likely to be related to climate change, versus 34% who think otherwise.]
This may well turn out to be one of the most worrying figures for the Abbott government.
There seems to have been a bit of a turnaround in public opinion on climate change lately. Does anyone recall what the results of the last few polls of this nature were? I seem to remember that at the tail end of the Gillard/Rudd era, the percentage of the population who believed in AGW was generally under 50%.
[27
Asha Leu….
In fact, it seems to me that the main reason you keep pushing that line is a refusal to admit that your horror at Labor’s “navel gazing” at the time was completely misplaced.]
Asha, the main reason RD finds fault with Labor is because he wants to divert attention away from the LNP. No matter how outrageous the conduct of the LNP, RD will always find a way to sledge the ALP…always.
The ALP “navel-gazing” lasted a month. Directly after the Coalition was elected to government and nobody was paying attention to them. In fact, it had the benefit of giving the ALP the spotlight in a period they would’ve otherwise been visible. Since then, their attention has been focused completely externally.
This is exactly what other parliamentary parties around the world go through and it does them no harm either. It’s a natural political evolution and you are going to have to just deal with it.
Maybe stop trying to pine for a quick knockout blow against the government and look at the bigger picture.
Am I saying Shorten or the ALP’s current approach is perfect (or even great)? No. But they are in a much better position than other oppositions have been at this point.
It’s time to accept that the doom and gloom forecasts made directly after the election were wrong and move on.
Rex Douglas@37
We are stuck with this govt until 2016 unless their hubris causes Tone to call a double dissolution.
CTar1
I wish others shared our view of Reith. Never mind he is yesterday’s man, he left politics in disgrace. I hardly watch television these days but I imagine the ABC still has him on for “balance”. Do they introduce him as the man who paid back 50 grand in the phone card rort and was shown to have lied over children overboard?
Bleedingly obvious that Australia voted Labor out because of their inability to portray a united front, not because of their policies or values. Look what happened as soon as both Rudd and Gillard were out of the picture.
Spur212 @29 – I assume that those numbers are net ratings i.e. percentage who thought new Govt will be better minus percentage who thought it would be worse. Those look like pretty damning numbers if that is he case. Why then does the Government have 2PP support of 51/49?
Rex
[No time to waste for the ALP – this Govt is a disaster and the casual observer needs to be alerted to it.]
Not saying that Labor should sit back, but I’d say the casual observer is already alert to it.
“Disaster” is the word to use.
“The Abbott Liberals – what a disaster” will be the 2014 (and beyond) campaign catchcry.
Ashu,
What it shows is that public opinion about the reality of AGW waxes and wanes depending on the weather or circumstances of a particular time. In the last few weeks there have been a number of extreme weather conditions around the globe, so people think there is something happeneing. Should milder weather return then their concerns will abate.
rossmcg
[Do they introduce him as the man who paid back 50 grand in the phone card rort and was shown to have lied over children overboard?]
Even less relevant than Richardson and that’s saying something!
rossmore
Been offline, thanks for your response in previous thread re the Timor Leste matter
[ We are stuck with this govt until 2016 unless their hubris causes Tone to call a double dissolution. ]
No chance of that. Peta wouldn’t let him.
rossmcg,
They’ll never call Peter Reith “wallmaker”.