Seat of the week: Grey

The seat which covers most of the geographical area of South Australia has typified Labor’s decline in regional areas by transforming from safe Labor to safe Liberal status since the early 1990s.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Grey has covered the bulk of South Australia’s land mass since the state was first divided into electorates in 1903, and it currently encompasses much the same territory as it did on its creation. The state’s eastern regions north of the Riverland were at times accommodated by Wakefield, but Grey has at all times accommodated the state’s west together with the “iron triangle” cities of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie. Labor-voting Whyalla is the electorate’s largest centre with a population of around 22,000, while increasingly marginal Port Augusta and Port Pirie together with strongly conservative Port Lincoln on the lower Eyre Peninsula each have populations of slightly over 13,000. About 60 per cent of the electorate’s population is scattered through the remainder, the strongest concentration being in the rural conservative Yorke Peninsula. The latter area was added to the electorate from Wakefield when South Australia’s representation was reduced from 12 seats to 11 in 2004.

Grey’s industrial centres once made it a reliable seat for Labor, but their decline over recent decades has effected a decisive shift to the Liberals. Labor held the seat for all but one term between 1943 and 1993, the exception being after the landslide defeat of 1966. Laurie Wallis recovered the seat for Labor in 1969 and retained it by margins of 563 votes in 1975 and 65 votes in 1977, surviving on the latter occasion in the face of an unfavourable redistribution, and bequeathed the seat to Lloyd O’Neil in 1983. The turning point arrived in 1993, when the addition of the Clare Valley (since transferred to Wakefield) and the retirement of O’Neil opened the way for Barry Wakelin to win the seat for the Liberals on the back of a 4.3% swing. The Liberals’ position has been strengthening ever since, helping Wakelin to achieve swings of 6.4% in 1996, 1.9% in 2001 and 3.2% in 2004, with a correction of only 0.5% to Labor in 1998. Wakelin’s retirement in 2007 combined with the overall swing to Labor cut the margin that year from 13.8% to 4.4%, but the Liberal ascendancy has since been firmly re-established by successive swings of 6.7% and 2.4% in 2010 and 2013. The member since 2007 has been Rowan Ramsey, who runs a farming property at Buckleboo on the Eyre Peninsula.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,234 comments on “Seat of the week: Grey”

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  1. Dee

    I mentioned yesterday that here in Victoria those within the building industry refer to their Qld counterpart as “cowboys”

  2. BB

    Let the fools who voted for Abbott eat shit.

    There is no retreat or soft place to fall after wilful blindness.

    All that us who knew all along he was a dud can only keep fingers crossed that the damage to the nation he is doing is not completely irretrievable.

  3. [ Malcolm Turnbull has bit his tongue on the Republic and Climate Change for all these years for a shot at the top job, which he still craves. He’s not going to risk championing gay marriage any time soon. ]

    True. He’s not called “Malcolm Turncoat” for nothing.

  4. DEe

    [We are watching a reg.tradesman removing an asbestos roof dressed in shorts and singlet.

    His young offsider is dressed in a similar fashion and is carrying the sheets over his bare shoulder and throwing them in the skip.]

    Depending on where you live, there are several crimes being committed there.

  5. Masochists in the 2GB footprint can tune in to new Shock Jockette Miranda Devine at 4-6pm today to hear her special guest Tony Abbott.

  6. Relax, folks. Tony’s still keeping fit, but other than that, life’s not much different to Opposition Leader.

    It’s OK, Tony, we didn’t need to be told.

    [”I managed to maintain the five o’clock starts as opposition leader and so far I’ve managed to maintain them as Prime Minister,” Mr Abbott said on Friday. ”The demands of being opposition leader are scarcely less great than the demands of being prime minister. There might be a little more pressure as prime minister, and there might be a lot more consequence to what you do, but in terms of your daily life the demands are not that much different.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/top-job-fails-to-slow-tony-abbotts-fitness-regime-20131214-2ze1j.html#ixzz2nUc8oDWb

  7. psycla
    [Or is it that we’re just a nanny state and should man up and not worry about the so called dangers of asbestos]

    Exactly!

    Heard so much guff to that effect since we’ve been here.

    They are obviously working today to avoid scrutiny by the relevant authorities.

  8. Agree with the others from the West, a Grylls switch to the Liberal and he become leader (Premier) is a bridge too far.

    Apart from all the hogwash about “family time” from Grylls I suspect this time, it might have been true.

    There have been some odd things going in in WA in relation to Barnett, but the Libs are actually bereft of talent and were in the election prior to last.

    They got in, and stayed in, thanks to the perception that the Evil Ones in the East are stealing all the goodies. Even more so when it has to do with mining and Labor.

    There is always the feeling that by 2017 the current conservative government will be old here and provided Labor can get and keep its act together, it will be left with the job of fixing up public transport and roads just for starters.

  9. [ Let the fools who voted for Abbott eat shit.

    There is no retreat or soft place to fall after wilful blindness.

    All that us who knew all along he was a dud can only keep fingers crossed that the damage to the nation he is doing is not completely irretrievable. ]

    At some point, the business backers of the LNP will realize what an utter disaster Abbott has been/will be for the Australian economy – the same economy from which they derive all their wealth.

    Then Abbott will get the tap on the shoulder.

    At the rate he is cocking things up, this could happen quite soon.

  10. confessions

    It is therefore interesting that Christian Porter left state politics to enter the federal fray. He no doubt would have been the next one in line to take over from Barnett as Premier. Obviously not a high enough station for him it seems

  11. DTT

    [People often say OK this industry goes because it is not competitive without EVER nominating a realistic substitute.]

    My problem with is not with concepts such as NPV but with the “competitiveness” paradigm. While it’s rational to want to produce goods and services with as little labour and materials as possible ceteris paribus in an Australian context “opmpetitiveness” is a dogwhistle aimed at depressing the wages and working conditions of the producers, rather than a proposal to deal with the decisive drivers making goods produced here more costly.

    The workers at GMH offered a very concessional deal on wages and in the end, it got them nothing because, plainly, other things were much more decisive.

    It seems clear that the part of the economy one can describe as “ETM”* has been set back enormously by the realtively high dollar and under investment in engineering and training. The current regime is moving now to abolish trades training centres too.

    So while I’m not convinced that a local car industry (in terms of building whole cars) is viable here, it seems to me that we urgently need a plan to revitalise the ETM sector and part of that might well be in areas of engineering cognate with cars — e.g. spare parts, retrofitting and re-engineering. Plainly, the whole renewable/green sector is wide open for engineering innovation.

    The other curious feature of this discussion is that while the various jurisdictions seem to have no problem at all pouring money into various vanity projects in sport and doing upper class welfare well north of $30bn per annum (if one counts tax treatment of super for the wealthy) having a quality airline or a cutting edge ETM sector seems not to excite them all that much. Nobody will say that the state not getting good value for money is a good thing, but if as seems clear, we are willing to waste money on xenophobic angst (as we do on “boats”, and defence) or fluffing wealthy folks’ retirement income) wouldn’t it be less stupid to focus instead on stuff that might make a positive difference to people in the longer run?

    It seems to me that doing high quality R&D and training and employing engineers and scientists at good wages would be something in which all of us could feel some positive sense of ownership. I’d far sooner have Australia seen as innovative and scientifically minded and leaders in education and technology and “clean tech” than a leader in sports or stopping “boats”.

    *elaborately transformed manufacturing

  12. BW
    [Depending on where you live, there are several crimes being committed there.]
    We know but who do you contact on a Sunday?

    They are across the road and there is a strong easterly blowing over our house.

    The neighbour directly next door said there has been no sealant applied,no damping down,nothing!

  13. Over the ditch things are looking up for Labour. There was a massive vote against privatization but Key is to push ahead with his plans. It’s an issue that will move a lot of votes. Current polling has Labour-Greens 48% , National 48% .

    [Labour gaining votes as National ‘ignore’ referendum results

    The Government has resolutely vowed to push on with the sale of shares in state-owned Genesis Energy, even as a new survey reveals angry voters are turning their backs on the National Party and its asset sales programme.

    A Herald on Sunday-Key Research poll shows Labour’s vote soaring from 31 per cent, a year ago, to 40 per cent this week.]

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11172690

    [Preliminary results of referendum show of more than 1.3m valid votes cast, 67.2 per cent voted against, 32.5 per cent in favour of asset sales]
    .

  14. Last line of defence against being put on FTTN which no longer gives a guaranteed 25mbps (as I have argued it cannot using lousy, corroded and too–narrow Telstra copper, my argument now fully vindicated) is your local council.

    If you think back to the Optus/Telstra rollout of HFC  you might remember local councils were in the vanguard of resistance to these thick cables being run out overhead. Councils couldn’t do anything then but they can prohibit erection of big, ugly cabinets on their footpaths. These cabinets will be magnets for graffiti that councils will have to clean up at ratepayers’ expense. They will also be vandalised for the valuable batteries they contain.

    No FTTN crap will be run out before 2018 in my estimation (after extended negotiations with Telstra leading to a payment of $30Bn in addition to the $11Bn for remediation of pits and ducts, studies into the state of the wiring (corrosion and wire thickness) and a study into what wire goes exactly where and which premises are on pair gain. Then the (extensive and expensive) remediation of the copper can be costed and work finally begin.

    Not only that—FTTN must be run out quickly else its (overstated) revenue targets won’t be met—the slightest slowdown will have big impact!

    So, if you are in a council within the old FTTH area that is not “served” by HFC I suggest you send a letter to your council/Shire along the lines of:

    To: City or District Council or Shire of XYZ (in the FTTN area, i.e not fully in HFC area)

    Atn: (any councillor or alderman or mayor you may know)

    Subject: Expensive new cost for ratepayers

    Dear (Name or Mayor etc)

    You will likely have heard that the Federal government is going to run out Fibre to the Node in areas like this local government area. This will involve the erection of large, powered metal cabinets (the nodes) on many of the council’s/Shire’s footpaths.

    These large metal cabinets will be magnets for graffit! Many may be vandalised for the valuable batteries they contain! Graffiti that the council will have to clean up at ratepayers’ expense! Council may also have to clean up acid etc if cabinets are vandalised. I am sure council and ratepayers do not want this expense and bother!

    The cabinets will not even support the “minimum” 25mbps that Mr Turnbull mentioned before and even after the election. Apparently this speed is only guaranteed as far as the Internet Service Provider. I doubt the Telstra copper can provide even a maximum of 25mbps—for this the ratepayers have to be inconvenienced and fund graffiti removal?

    I remember when Optus and Telstra were running out the unsightly HFC cables and many councils tried to prohibit them being rolled out in their areas, unsuccessfully that time. But councils will have power to prohibit cabinets being erected on council footpaths, and should use that power.

    You may think it will be worth the bother and expense to give ratepayers faster internet. As I have explained, using Minister Turnbull’s own words, any speed increase will be minor and 25mbps[i] not guaranteed! [/i]Furthermore, those who get connected to a node won’t see any true superfast broadband for ages, even if Labor regain government in 2016.

    Please give serious consideration to my request to block the erection of large, powered metal cabinets on council footpaths.

    Yours faithfully

    (signed with name and street address)
    _________________________________

    Copies—local LNP MHR? Turnbull?

    I have sent such an email to my local council.

  15. Speaking of OHS . The cricket authorities better be careful. Temperatures expected to be a degree or two higher today.

    [Aussies and Poms Agree: It Ain’t Half Hot Mum

    CRICKET fans went into meltdown at the WACA as temperatures reached 46C, with the same heat blast set for tomorrow.

    The Bureau of Meteorology recorded 40.4C in the shade at 12.15pm, a record for an Ashes Test at the WACA.]

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/aussies-and-poms-agree-it-aint-half-hot-mum/story-fnhocxo3-1226783177577

  16. Andrew Bolt;
    Whatever the truth, the Left’s abuse of the Abbott Government is already worse than anything complained of under Julia Gillard.

    Tony Abbott has been called a “liar” by the Opposition Leader and pictured hanging from a noose on a poster at a same-sex marriage rally.
    ======================================

    Make up your own minds as to the viciousness of calling Abbott a liar compared to the comments from the shock jocks and Liberals about Gillard

  17. Hmmm … ugh!

    [While it’s rational to want to produce goods and services with as little labour and materials as possible ceteris paribus in an Australian context “opcompetitiveness” …]

  18. The only problem with the NBN FTTH plan is that it was Labor’s plan.

    The Liberals don’t do bi-partisan – no matter what the cost

  19. Fulvio last night @2304

    From everything I am hearing you and your group of friends are right on the money

    No one appears happy with this Government.

  20. Good on Tanya but she might need a lot of help to get Malcolm on board.

    Peta would prefer to eat shite rather than to allow him to join up with Tanya.

  21. Boerwar@41

    lizzie

    Humans have a genius for getting this sort of stuff wrong so they will blame the Chinese rather than the Australians.

    Incidentally, while the ‘Chinese’ girl looks Chinese, she is an Australian citizen. So she is an ‘Australian’ girl and not a ‘Chinese’ girl.

    Bravo Boerwar.
    Too many Australians see our Asian-Australians as not really Australians.

    They are. And good citizens too, with few exceptions.

    Part of the shame is that they are so used to being regarded in this way, they just passively accept it.

    The ladies at a local butchers that are of Cambodian-Chinese origin were delighted when I reminded them they were all Aussies now and showed full acceptance of them as such. Sad that so many people don’t.

  22. Japanese people spending less time on Holidays:
    http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/survey-shows-japanese-workers-least-likely-to-take-vacation-time

    “The chart shows 13 of the surveyed countries and how Japan ranks lowest in days taken off to vacation days available ratio. The gray portion of the bar represents the average number of vacation days in a country, and the blue portion shows how many of those days are actually taken.”

    “Japanese workers also ranked high in another list: the percentage of workers who don’t take any vacation. A whopping 17% of Japan is apparently so dedicated to their job that they will not take a single day of paid vacation off. Americans do, however, come pretty close with 13% of the country’s workforce not taking any time off. Meanwhile, there wasn’t a single Australian in the survey that didn’t take at least one day off during the year.”

    “Japanese Internet commenters were not especially shocked by the outcome of the survey, but many expressed their displeasure at having to face such a dismal work life. Some were decidedly unhappy about the toll “modern” and “advanced” Japan took on their personal life.”

  23. Breaking:

    China has become the third nation in history to land a space probe on the moon.

    Congratulations to China. China now intends to establish a permanent space station by 2020. But get this?

    China NEXT intends to send an astronaut to the moon.

    What?

    Send an astronaut to the moon…with all the advanced computer technology of today as opposed to the no calculator and no colour TV (black and white only) technology of 1969.

    POPPYCOCK!

    The Americans are wankers!

    What price man did not land on the moon in 1969 with the limited technology available of 44 years ago?

    I’d take $10,000 to $1,000 they didn’t go and if I could get 100/1 book me in for a $500k to $5k bet now! 😎

  24. We were talking about AFL politics and Demetriou being Labor yesterday.

    Well it turns out he is a socialist dictator according to Bolta.

    [AFL chief Andrew Demetriou is a man of the hard Left – a fervent global warming preacher and “reconciliation” proselytiser whose board has long been heavily staffed by people with deep connections to Labor.

    Under Demetriou in particular the AFL has become a metaphor for a modern socialist state. No club may succeed too well without being punished. Clubs have strict salary caps. The failing are given extra help. And, of course, the leaders of this football land run propaganda campaigns to encourage right-thinking.

    But, of course, the danger is that the inevitable one – that leaders of such a state become so convinced of their right to power that they are overbearing. Dictatorial. Almost vindictive when their power and their judgement has been questioned: ]

  25. Didn’t expect this so soon.

    [SENIOR Liberal MP Malcolm Turnbull says it is “likely” the coalition government will allow a conscience vote on gay marriage before the next election, but it is too soon to say if it will be successful. ]

  26. AA thanks for the poster of Liberal attitudes to asbestos victims.

    There are some wonderful posters out there that pithily capture the core of the argument

  27. Oh Gawd. Not long ago we had to endure a pointless ‘who really killed Kennedy’ debate. Now it’s the return of that ‘the moon landing was a fake’ nonesense. I’ll have to get a new tinfoil hat if this crap keeps being circulated here. Surely there are more important thngs to talk about.

    Why not go all conspiracy theory about who has ‘privately funded’ Abbott’s Christmas holiday in France?
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/tony-abbott-says-he-is-on-track-but-he-is-looking-vulnerable-in-the-polls/story-fnig4uyx-1226782771237

    I reckon it was Fred Nile – he’s not short of a quid and it would explain that affectionate wedding congratulations letter from Abbott.

  28. Turnbull says it’s all the other countries bringing in SSM which has given the momentum and us being left behind. He avoids Plibersek’s wedge as he’s in Cabinet.

    [“I think it is likely that we will (have a free vote), but as Tony Abbott has said, it is a decision for the party room, not for him,” he told Sky News on Sunday.

    “If a free vote is allowed I will certainly vote in favour of a marriage equality bill.”

    Mr Turnbull said it was too early to predict whether the new parliament would back same-sex marriage legislation but Australia appeared to be lagging behind other countries.

    The big change was not the composition of parliament, he said, but the international “context” in which New Zealand, Canada, South Africa and parts of the United States and the UK had legalised gay marriage.

    “If you think about the countries that we are culturally closest to, they are the big English-speaking democracies,” Mr Turnbull said.

    “So people of the same sex can get married in Auckland and Wellington, Toronto and Ottawa and Vancouver, in New York and Los Angeles, and Baltimore, in Cape Town, but not Australia.

    “It does start to look as if we’re the ones out of step.”

    Despite his support for gay marriage, the eastern Sydney MP said he would not co-sponsor a bill with Tanya Plibersek, as requested by the deputy Labor leader.

    “I can’t co-sponsor a private member’s bill because I’m a member of the cabinet,” he said.]

  29. [AFL chief Andrew Demetriou is a man of the hard left]

    So what is Andrew Bolt?

    A loudmouthed pigheaded extreme right wing fool who should stick to being an apologist for his narrow minded and economically illiterate Liberal Party.

    If you read this, come over Andrew and debate here at PB!

    We’ll straighten your climate science and ideological stupidity, promise you 😎

  30. Why not go all conspiracy theory about who has ‘privately funded’ Abbott’s Christmas holiday in France?
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/tony-abbott-says-he-is-on-track-but-he-is-looking-vulnerable-in-the-polls/story-fnig4uyx-1226782771237

    I reckon it was Fred Nile – he’s not short of a quid and it would explain that affectionate wedding congratulations letter from Abbott.
    ===================================================

    I reckon it was Murdoch. The cost of getting Abbott out of Australia, limiting his exposure and regular gaffs would be worth the money

  31. [Under Demetriou in particular the AFL has become a metaphor for a modern socialist state. No club may succeed too well without being punished. Clubs have strict salary caps. The failing are given extra help. And, of course, the leaders of this football land run propaganda campaigns to encourage right-thinking.]

    Sounds quite good, actually. Dolt makes a better case for socialism than most socialists manage.

  32. Diogenes

    [
    Didn’t expect this so soon.]

    Not after ‘Dave’ in the UK effortlessly announced that SSM will become part of the scenery from early next year.

  33. Centre

    The funny thing is Bolt objects to divisive and simplistic labelling when he is referred to as being Right or hard Right or whatever (he says he isn’t Right, he’s a conservative) but he always uses the same language when talking about the “leftist ABC” or “leftist Fairfax” etc.

    He really is a hatefilled, divisive hypocrite.

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