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| Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Calwell covers suburbs around Melbourne Airport in the city’s north-west, including Keilor, Sydenham and Taylors Lakes to the west, Tullamarine to the south, and from Broadmeadows north along Sydney Road to the southern part of Craigieburn. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 but at that time the electorate was oriented further to the west, with only the Keilor and Sydenham area west of the Maribyrnong River carrying over to the electorate in its current form. The redistribution which took effect at the 1990 election shifted it eastwards to include Broadmeadows, which it has retained ever since. Substantial changes at the 2004 redistribution saw the electorate lose the areas west of the river to the new seat of Gorton while gaining Sunbury and Craigieburn to the north from abolished Burke, but these were reversed at the 2013 election, when Sunbury and most of Craigieburn were transferred to McEwen and Keilor and Sydenham were returned from Gorton.
Calwell has been won by Labor at each election since its creation by margins ranging from 7.1% in 1990 to 19.7% in 2010, which were respectively the worst and best elections for Labor in Victoria during the period in question. The seat’s inaugural member was Andrew Theophanous, who had been member for Burke from 1980. Theophanous quit the ALP in April 2000 after claiming factional leaders had reneged on a deal in which he was to be succeeded by his brother Theo, who served in the Victorian state upper house from 1988 to 2010 and as a minister from 2002 to 2008. Andrew Theophanous was facing criminal charges at the time of his departure from the party for receiving bribes and sexual favours from Chinese nationals seeking immigration assistance, for which he would eventually be sentenced to four years’ imprisonment, which was halved after one of the major charges was quashed on appeal.
Labor’s new candidate at the 2001 election was Maria Vamvakinou, who shared Theophanous’s Greek heritage and background in the Socialist Left faction, having spent the eight years before her entry to parliament as an electorate officer to factional powerbroker Senator Kim Carr. Vamvakinou went entirely untroubled by Theophanous’s forlorn bid to retain his seat as an independent, which scored him 9.6% of the vote. Vamvakinou had her 17.7% margin at the 2001 election pared back 1.6% by redistribution and 6.9% by a swing to the Liberals at the 2004 election, before enjoying a thumping 11.1% swing in 2007 and a further 0.4% swing in 2010. The redistribution before the September election increased her margin another 0.4%, but she went on to suffer a 6.2% swing that was slightly above the statewide 5.1%, reducing her margin to its present 13.9%. Vamvakinou has remained on the back bench throughout her time in parliament.
If only this happened to Abbott !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sVdXg0aYYw
‘fess
[You can’t beat the ‘Dud Root’ headline from the 1st Test!]
I didn’t see that.
Classic.
Peter of Marino
Don’t give up hope it may well just happen.
Over a million.
It’s painful having to listen to highly professional overseas commentators like Jonathan Agnew and Harsha Bogle being sat next to this offensive fuckwit Kerry O’Keefe and having to pretend to be amused by his juvenile idiocy. I’ve emailed almost these exact words to the ABC about ten times, so I’m probably in the “cranks inbox” by now.
The rest of the crew I don’t mind. Jim Maxwell is a bit dull but knows his stuff, as does Drew Morphett.
Psephos:
Kerry O’Keefe is the one reason I can’t listen to the ABC coverage. For all the stupidity of the Ch9 commentators at least they are largely inoffensive. O’Keefe is truly revolting.
CTar:
https://twitter.com/Rob_Stott/status/403774440745340928/photo/1
I quite enjoy the contrast between Kerry O’Keefe and the other commentators, I miss Glen Mitchell though. Very badly treated by the ABC.
Taylor’s high voice and tendency to whinge sometimes can be grating. However, at least he talks about the game and knows what he’s talking about.
‘fess 😆
[pollution in Shanghai has reached record levels causing the government to ban cars and cut production across factories. ]
This would be a major factor in China now taking measures to control pollution and carbon emissions. Every resident of China can see and breathe what is happening. The growing middle class is demanding action. The Chinese national and provincial governments are responding to this pressure – it’s a pity the same cannot be said for Australia at present.
@citizen/161
Aussies are dumb compared to our Asian neighbors.
Carey @136 – sounds like the recent change of government.
130
fredex
So much of a person’s sense of identity, security and self-belief is derived from their work, that these findings surely come as no surprise.
Forced redundancy really is about loss as such – that is, it is about a kind of bereavement. Considered this way, it is obvious that genuine, reliable, practical and trusted support needs to be available to “displaced” workers. Considering as well that rapid, large-scale change is now a permanent feature of the economy, the relative lack of such support is quite striking. In Australia, the State (thanks to JWH) has outsourced these functions to the Job Network, a patch-job replacement for the services once provided directly by the Commonwealth.
Somehow, in a market economy it is taken as a given that such losses will automatically fall on individuals and their families. The misfortunes of economic rationalisation are thus largely personalised and atomised rather than socialised, even though the benefits of rationalisation accrue to the economy as a whole and drive the income gains of the whole population.
In all this, those who lose the most are the ones who have the least social and financial power. Surely the State has a more active role to play in ameliorating the losses that fall on the relatively powerless.
The one thing that really stands out about Abbott’s reaction to the problems at Holden is his “take-it-or-leave-it” style. It speaks of a basic indifference to the fortunes of the industry and those who have both built it and now depend on it.
Last night I watched for the first time the video of Bishop Junior’s reception and treatment by the Chinese.
What an embarrassment for Australia! She (and we} would have been better off with her not going.
I’ve seen farting dogs treated with more respect.
[165
Fulvio Sammut
Last night I watched for the first time the video of Bishop Junior’s reception and treatment by the Chinese.]
The Chinese are very good at Profoundly Cordial, and can be equally good at Undisguised Disdain. They have figured out that Bishop is unlikely to have much of a role in the future of this country and is therefore hardly worth talking to.
Obviously the Government of China has the same opinion of the Abbott Government (I’m tempted to call it the Peta Abbott Government), as I do. I’m not entirely sure if this is a good thing, but since I usually like the way the Chinese think, I’m going with it for now.
fulvio
The look on the Chinese FM’s face while Bish Jnr grins inanely!
[Obviously the Government of China has the same opinion of the Abbott Government as I do.]
Not unless you’re a communist. Are you a communist?
Abbott/Morrison on a Unity Ticket with people smugglers
@Psephos/168
Not sure where you going with that comment, considering the way Abbott has been acting since election day, he’s acting like a communist by restricting information flow.
briefly
[Are you a communist?]
‘Or have you ever been?’.
FMD
[156
confessions
Psephos:
Kerry O’Keefe is the one reason I can’t listen to the ABC coverage.]
O’K is a clown. Why the ABC thinks they should employ him is really mystifying. Perhaps the producers are sick of the cricket and want to get rid of it completely, and O’K is a tool in their plot.
[Not sure where you going with that comment,]
China is governed by the Communist Party of China. The Chinese government’s view of Julie Bishop, as of everything else, is the view of the Communist Party. The reason they are being hostile to Australia at present is that Australia, quite rightly, is supporting our friends and allies the US, Japan and South Korea in resisting China’s attempt to establish a unilateral hegemony over the East Asian region. I would hope a Labor government would be taking the same position.
[168
Psephos
Obviously the Government of China has the same opinion of the Abbott Government as I do.
Not unless you’re a communist. Are you a communist?]
lol. nice touch.
I only experience fraternal solidarity on Sundays when I’m sleep-deprived and languishing from the after effects of pain killers.
@Psephos/173
Yeah I was pointing out the fact this is a Abbott Goverment, not a Labor one.
Psephos, the irony was intentional…as I’m sure you would detect.. 🙂
I maintain my (obviously minority) view that Bishop is one of the few members of the Abbott government displaying signs of competence, and that if Abbott does indeed fall over before the next election, she is more likely than Turnbull or Hockey to be the successor.
poroti & B CTAR1
Posted Sunday, December 8, 2013 at 11:01 am | PERMALINK
mari
Saw a brilliant comment about Edinburgh that gave me a smile. The winds there a very lazy, they go through you rather than around
That is very true but wasn’t this past summer, even had a heat haze for British Open. Just come up from the beach where I was looking for a breeze
AA @169: not to mention scuttling the Malaysia option, doing their damndest to talk down the PNG option in the hope that it would collapse before the election and above all annoying the hell out if Indonesia to the point where they have ceased all cooperation with Australia on people-smuggling.
[Psephos, the irony was intentional…as I’m sure you would detect.]
This is not a good medium for conveying irony. Perhaps we need an agreed “irony symbol.”
mari
[where I was looking for a breeze]
Just enough breeze here in Canberra yesterday and today to make it very pleasant.
Many people walking dogs.
177
Bishop toppling Abbott, in this term, would help make this government appear to have more of the previous government`s failing in the eyes of a large chunk of the public. The ALP leader would however have to change his name`s spelling to Chorten to maintain alphabetical order.
[I would hope a Labor government would be taking the same position.]
Even if the you agree with Bishop’s view, which I struggle to do, why should Australia be involved at all in a silly squabble over some islands between two trading partners, surely you’d have to agree the loud Americanish, but without the economy or military of the Americans, bullying diplomacy without nuance has been about the very worst any Australian Government could do.
I would say bull in a … but I wont.
[Therefore Abbott and Shorten will be absent from QT at some stage this week.]
Nope, funeral is next Sunday. Reps sits till Thursday.
[Bishop toppling Abbott, in this term, would help make this government appear to have more of the previous government`s failing in the eyes of a large chunk of the public. ]
That’s true. But as we saw with R*dd, when a leader is all of incompetent, unpopular and disliked by their colleagues, something has to give. Abbott’s not in R*dd territory yet, but the signs are not good.
Bill Lawry of pigeon racing??
CTAR1 181
A very good exercise, the breeze has arrived thankfully probably in 2 hours I will be wishing it would go away, those north easterlies are pretty strong at times, like put away the chairs and table on the patio if you want to keep them
The cricket ‘lunch break’.
Not only ‘mute’ but change station.
Oh dear psephos. Communisist. Boy I have not hear THAT term used by sane people for thirty years.
Tell you a secret!! the Berlin wall fell. Them thar evil commies took a big hitski.
China is about as communist as Barnaby Joyce or Stephen Conroy.
You must distinguish between communism and socialism, nationalism and national self interest, totalitarianism, jingoism and imperialism versus national security, capitalism and indeed fascism.
China is clearly nationalistic and it would seem rather totalitarian. There are some residual elements of socialism but relatively few, and the country is largely capitalist, albeit with some powerful state owned companies.
China operates a trade system which meets its national self interest as do ALL countries as they should.
The fact that China’s self interest clashes with those of other countries including some of our allies is important and relevant to us but it is childish and outdated to kick the commie can.
[177
Psephos
I maintain my (obviously minority) view that Bishop is one of the few members of the Abbott government displaying signs of competence]
And yet by making a public demonstration of the “calling in” the Chinese Ambassador to deliver the rebuke over the declaration of the Aviation Security Zone, she showed a complete lack of diplomatic talent.
It’s one thing to express disagreement with China. It’s another to deliberately insult them in broad daylight give it symphonic treatment in the media. This Government has really shown it does not understand China and does not care either. They are as ignorant in their dealings with Beijing as they have been with Jakarta.
I think Bishop deserves quite a bit of the blame for this, though Abbott himself is a very disruptive force.
If Bishop really wanted to have an influence with China she would not have tried to hold them publicly accountable for creating regional tensions, and then delivering a little homily on the matter afterwards. She could try diplomacy instead.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=748442645170119&set=a.368113029869751.101164.248063755208013&type=1
Says it all
mari
[like put away the chairs and table on the patio if you want to keep them]
Nephew and I did this in London not to long ago after I spotted an almost 3 year old perched on a chair on the balcony … only 32 floors down to the Podium.
George Bush senior is not going to the Mandela memorial. I thought not.
[George Bush senior is not going to the Mandela memorial. I thought not.]
Yeah. He might throw-up in someones lap … again.
189
daretotread
dtt, take it from me, in China the State exercises power that western governments could only dream of. They own and/or control all the key instruments in the economy and determine most of the content of social, cultural, educational, intellectual and material life.
It hardly matters what name they give it. There is a power monopoly in China, and it runs through everything.
Even so, I think they have achieved a great deal and that they should be accommodated as equals and partners. I dare say I am very biased as a result of a lifetime of contact with Chinese people who I trust and understand as friends.
180
Psephos
Perhaps we should give text a score on the Fran Meter, a low score signifying high irony content and a high score the complete absence of this compound.
ru
Lyndal Curtis earlierr mentioned that Abbott and Shorten would be absent on Tuesday and wednesday to attend memorial for Mandela, They will return in time for last sitting day of year
[A national memorial service is then scheduled to be held on Tuesday in the 90,000-plus capacity sports stadium in Soweto that hosted the final of the 2010 World Cup, where Mandela made his last public appearance.]
Speaking of idiodic cricket talk – Where is Philip Clive Roderick “Tuffers” Tufnell?
[It’s one thing to express disagreement with China. It’s another to deliberately insult them in broad daylight give it symphonic treatment in the media. This Government has really shown it does not understand China and does not care either. They are as ignorant in their dealings with Beijing as they have been with Jakarta.]
What I was thinking but expressed well