Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

True to form, Essential Research offers a more subdued reflection than its rivals of the apparent decline in the government’s political stock.

Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s direction, with the Coalition lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48, although it may have been helped along a little by the use of preference flows from the recent election for the first time. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 36%, the Coalition down one to 44% and the Greens down one to 8%. We are also told the Palmer United Party is on 4%, a figure not usually provided by Essential. The poll also finds 53% opposed to lowering the $1000 GST threshold on imported goods, with 35% supportive; and 70% opposed to lifting the pension age to 70, with only 24% supportive. Other results deal with respondents’ media consumption and internet use.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

696 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Ctar1
    [‘PC’ means ‘personal computer’.]
    Der. Um, seriously now.

    [Calm down, Sarah.]
    Sarah is my niece. Not an alter ego. So no crackers for you.

  2. kezza2 @307

    What are you going on about?

    I assume you were trying to defend Fran, but am not sure. In any case I was having a go a Turkey not Fran.

  3. This morning I posted this:

    [I notice that while no-one is commenting on matters of intelligence, because it is traditional not to do so, and it is bipartisan not to do so, just about every ractionary hack in the Australian MSM has obviously been privately briefed by one, some or all of: ASD backgrounders, by Brandis, by the PMO or by Brandis’ office.

    As a result of this backgrounding said reactionary hacks are talking wisely about all sorts of intelligence matters like the wise old parrots that they are. And, by one of those odd coincidences, they are all parroting the same tune on the same day:

    (1) call Snowden a ‘traitor’.
    (2) cast doubt on Snowden’s documents (unverifiable)
    (3) attack the Guardian
    (4) attack the ABC
    (5) deny any unsuitable facts of the matter
    (6) itemize intell successes vis-a-vis terrorists.

    Of course (5) and (6) are completely untestable and unverifiable because we do not talk about intelligence matters.

    Here is the main message: Abbott’s catspaws will be primed to talk about intelligence matters to Abbott’s heart’s content. Intell will be used by Abbott in party partisan fasion. Intell will be spilled to Abbott hacks as required. But, of course, Abbott will not discuss intell.

    What all this shows clearly is one thing: Abbott is not fit to be prime minister.]

    Perhaps all that was really to prepare Australians for a lawyer to be raided, for a whistleblower to be arrested and for what are likely to be some noxious revelations in the Hague.

    And for why? The national interest?

    Where do the national interest, the personal interest of Downer and the organisational interests of the Liberal Party (and of the Liberal Government) intersect?

    There is something rotten in the State of Australia.

  4. [This little black duck
    Posted Tuesday, December 3, 2013 at 7:21 pm | PERMALINK
    Otiose / Kezza,

    I just got room 404 in Chrome as well. Has worked before.]
    Same here X 4

  5. Looks at knot tied on thumb.
    Thinks, what is that knot doing there.
    Light bulb goes ‘flash’.
    Memo: Do not sent posts to the Black Hole of Eight Pee Em Bludger.

  6. poriti

    [Diogenes is a real artiste when it comes to surgery and trees.]

    Nice but when he can make Swans out of old car tires I’ll take notice.

  7. rummel
    [In any case I was having a go a Turkey . . .]
    Pull the other one, it plays jingle bells.

    Tis the season to be jelly
    wobble, wobble, wobble.

  8. Sean, there is nothing illegal about being a refugee, or coming by boat and then claiming asylum.
    Only deadheads, and bigoted bogans would demean themselves by referring to them as “illegals”

  9. Otiose

    Where possible use HTML 5. Google lets you specify with youtube so maybe with other things.

    HTLM 5 is industry standard and works on all platforms

  10. Really all this spying is just an extension of the technology that allows you to capture and record anything. Governments use these snooping tools because they can! A bit like dogs licking their nether regions.

    There is no such thing as privacy anymore.

  11. Abbott wants to punish the House for the Senate not passing legislation.

    Good plan. He is going to punish more Liberals and Nationals than Labors and Independents: for nothing more than a stunt.

  12. How many years has Pyne been the Liberals’ education spokesperson?

    [Education Minister Christopher Pyne is still working out the details of his schools funding deal including what conditions, if any, are placed on the states getting billions of dollars.]

    The broader policy details such as the conditions placed on the states should’ve been worked out a long time ago, leaving just tweaking at the margins with the new funding quantums to the states announced yesterday.

  13. [Otiose
    Posted Tuesday, December 3, 2013 at 7:33 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza2

    Stumped – up til now, and just now TLBD, Safari user my only complaint 🙁 Will try reload – brb]
    Hey, don’t worry.
    I amuse myself with imaginations of what’s on your spreadsheet. Especially when those I most admire on here think you’ve done a great job.

    I just wanted to know what I was missing out on. But I’m okay with not knowing if it’s going to interfere with so many others getting the info.

    Thanks for trying, though.

  14. Pyne was caught in a contradiction today.

    On the one hand he was essentially putting down any notion of command and control.

    On the other hand, officials were working on the details of his agreements with the states.

    What details? If there is to be no ‘command and control’ why have ‘details’?

  15. The Howard-Downer bastardry to Timor Leste over the gas and oil rights coming back now to haunt the diplomatically challenged Abbott government is particularly sweet poetic justice.

    No doubt that little bucket of shit has been kept quietly fermenting in the back room by the aggrieved party, waiting for just the right moment, and Abbott has handed it to them on a silver platter.

  16. Bw

    [15 agents raided the joint!]

    No mention of the AFP who must have been present also as ASIO cannot raid anything by themselves.

  17. Pyne asked three questions on education in three years as education spokesperson. Did you really think he would have a policy to implement.

    As far as the Libs are concerned, education is a costly extravagance and ripe for cutting.

    It’s just that they have found the voters don’t agree with them. Especially, when they don’t have an alternative plan that is credible.

  18. [Where do the national interest, the personal interest of Downer and the organisational interests of the Liberal Party (and of the Liberal Government) intersect?

    There is something rotten in the State of Australia.]

    You missed Woodside and that Sir Dolly of Downer is a paid lobbyist for the said Woodside Petroleum, that the former Treasurer Viscount Peter of Higgins stooped a takeover of Woodside in the national interest, maybe Shell would not go so far as to steal resources from a neighbour.

  19. CTaR1
    I have the feeling that the MSM might find itself under threat in relation to anti-terrorism laws if it even reports the raid.

  20. gg

    [As far as the Libs are concerned, education is a costly extravagance and ripe for cutting.]

    But only for certain classes of people.

  21. [Pyne asked three questions on education in three years as education spokesperson. Did you really think he would have a policy to implement.]

    Yes I think voters could be expected to think they’d have a policy to implement because for 3 years they told us they were ready to govern.

    That Pyne asked only 3 QT questions on education is immaterial.

  22. I see that one of the consequences of the Liberals cutting $4.5 billion in aid is that more people will die of malaria.

    Well done, the Liberals.

    Lucky country?

    Nah.

    Filthy Rich Selfish Country.

  23. Only deadheads, and bigoted bogans would demean themselves by referring to them as “illegals” like Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison.

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