Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

True to form, Essential Research offers a more subdued reflection than its rivals of the apparent decline in the government’s political stock.

Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s direction, with the Coalition lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48, although it may have been helped along a little by the use of preference flows from the recent election for the first time. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 36%, the Coalition down one to 44% and the Greens down one to 8%. We are also told the Palmer United Party is on 4%, a figure not usually provided by Essential. The poll also finds 53% opposed to lowering the $1000 GST threshold on imported goods, with 35% supportive; and 70% opposed to lifting the pension age to 70, with only 24% supportive. Other results deal with respondents’ media consumption and internet use.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

696 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. A couple more yellows but too much noise to hear who they were. It seems as if those on Madame Speaker’s left are doing a round robin of yellows while no individual cracks it for a red.

  2. Rishworth managed to crack two yellows and a red in the same session, which must be a parliamentary record.

    Bishop cannot count.

  3. Labor should choose its battles. Allow Abbott and Hockey to bluster on for a few more days then pass it, saying Abbott is just mad enough to damage the country if he doesn’t get his way.

  4. Re #6 – that was about the debt limit. The other thing is that we don’t want this to become a regular thing that would come back to bite a future Labor government.

  5. Pyne just admitted that he did not know what was in the agreements because officials were still working it out.

    That should be headlines… if the journos are up to it.

  6. As for TPVs, I’m in two minds. They didn’t work. If Morrison can easily find a workaround and keep issuing and reissuing extensions to temporary residence, maybe Labor should just let that one go, making it clear that they didn’t and won’t work. Then focus on the big items:
    1. Carbon pricing – easy – all the Coalition needs to do is demonstrate that they have a workable alternative plan that would work to meet their commitment to reduce emissions by 5% by 2020. Of course at the moment they don’t even have a plan that won’t work.
    2. Mining tax – the Coalition have to say how they will fix the hole in the budget, given that revenues from this tax in future years are projected to be much higher than has been received too date.

  7. I don’t know why Labor is claiming Gonski. Rudd got rid of Gonski when he was buy rebranding all of Gillard’s achievements.

  8. I’m just catching up with a QT recording having just come back from two lightning strike fires.
    I am struck with Abbott’s arrogance and the Speaker’s ineptitude.

  9. WOW! Again! LOL why ask the same question 6 times in a row?
    It happens to be the same question as yesterday.

    Also where is the point of order? no point of order? come on labor getting sloppy.

  10. [ I am struck with Abbott’s arrogance and the Speaker’s ineptitude. ]

    Do they really think such carry on will endear them to voters?

    Sure they don’t give a stuff – so in a way let them do even worse – abbott will come a gutsa and it will be all the more enjoyable.

  11. Dreyfus gets a yellow.

    Madame Speaker must have been shaken by yesterday’s events and is sprinkling yellows like confetti at a gala kerosene refinery opening.

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