Seat of the week: Wills

Located in Melbourne’s middle north, Wills was once home to Bob Hawke, is now home to Kelvin Thomson, and was home in the interim to independent Phil Cleary. It has never been home to the Liberals.

Red and green numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and the Greens. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Wills covers an area of Melbourne’s middle north, from long-established Brunswick in the south and Coburg in the centre to post-war suburbs further north. Like its eastern neighbour Batman, it straddles the divide between the Greens stronghold of the inner city and the expansive Labor heartland of Melbourne’s northern suburbs. However, the former area carries lesser weight in Wills than in Batman, being confined to the area around Brunswick, which makes the seat substantially more secure for Labor. The electorate was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, though at that time its southern end was covered by the since-abolished electorate of Burke (an unrelated electorate of the same name covered Melbourne’s outer north from 1969 to 2004). Prior to 1949, an electorate called Bourke had boundaries similar to those Wills has had since Burke was abolished in 1955. Labor’s strength in the area was established early, with Bourke being held by either Labor or socialist independents from 1910 until it was abolished.

The inaugural member for Wills was Bill Bryson, who had won Bourke for Labor in 1943 before losing to an independent in 1946. Bryson was among seven Victorian “groupers” who were expelled from the party during the split of 1955, and he contested that year’s election as the candidate of the Australian Labor Party (Anti-Communist), which would shortly evolve into the Democratic Labor Party. However, Bryson was defeated by Labor candidate Gordon Bryant, who went on to serve as Aboriginal Affairs Minister in the Whitlam government. When Bryant retired in 1980, the seat was used to accommodate Bob Hawke’s long-anticipated entry to parliament, enabling him to assume the prime ministership three years later.

Hawke resigned from parliament immediately after losing the leadership in December 1991, providing Paul Keating with an early electoral test in the form of a by-election for a seat the party had never lost before. The test was failed disastrously: in a record field of 22 candidates, local football identity Phil Cleary outpolled the Labor candidate 33.5% to 29.4%, prevailing by 15.7% after preferences. The result was declared void the following November when the High Court ruled Cleary had not been qualified to nominate as his job as a teacher constituted “an office of profit under the Crown”. The imminence of the 1993 election meant no new by-election was held, but Cleary won the seat at the ensuing election by a margin of 2.4%. Cleary’s position was subsequently weakened when redistribution pushed the seat westwards, and Labor candidate Kelvin Thomson provided his party with a rare highlight at the 1996 election when he polled 50.0% of the primary vote to prevail over Cleary by 5.8% after preferences.

A member of the Labor Unity (Right) faction, Thomson entered politics as the state member for Pascoe Vale in 1988, and served in the shadow ministry following the Kirner government’s defeat in 1992. He was elevated to the federal shadow ministry in 1997, serving in portfolios including environment and regional development. However, he resigned from the front bench in March 2007 when it emerged he had given a reference to colourful Melbourne identity Tony Mokbel. From February 2013 until the government’s defeat he served as a parliamentary secretary, first in the trade portfolio and then in schools after Kevin Rudd resumed the leadership in June, after which he returned to the back bench. Thomson supported Julia Gillard in the February 2012 leadership ballot, but was among those who defected to the Rudd camp in June 2013. Together with the rest of his faction, he supported Bill Shorten in the post-election leadership contest. While Thomson’s electoral position has at all times remained secure, the Greens achieved a minor milestone at the 2013 election when they finished ahead of the Liberals to secure second place, ending up 15.2% arrears after the distribution of preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,597 comments on “Seat of the week: Wills”

Comments Page 2 of 32
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  1. “the Liberals” are going to rectify the situation, as “the Liberals” always have, but it will take more than 4 weeks.

    And they have started by borrowing more and borrowing to give $8.8 billion to the RBA..off to a good start.

    For sale signs will going up on taxpayer assets in no time. Just like during the Howard years.

    By time the Liberals are finished the Australian taxpayer will own nothing – all assets sold off to Liberal mates

  2. Mod, we have a two party system.

    One party goes backwards. The other party goes forward. We vote the other party in when we’ve had enough of the current direction. Neither can change direction without causing a problem for voters.

  3. [sprocket_
    Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 10:37 pm | PERMALINK
    ModLib

    Do you know if Tony Abbott will be putting on a knees up for right wing bloggers at Kirribilli House?]

    I would love to have an invitation to Kirribilli House….have had invitations to Government House and Admiralty House….just never Kirribilli…..sigh.

  5. Mod Lib

    Lets forget about the ALP for a moment, if the Liberal Party had been in government over the past six years would there have been a budget surplus.

    I seriously doubt any government would have delivered a surplus due to the broader economic conditions

  6. I have no doubt that we would be in surplus if the Liberals had been in power for the last 6 years.

    They would have spent less on the GFC, therefore borrowing less, they would not have slammed the brakes on with the Carbon Tax and scared off investors with the Mining tax debacle.

  7. Mod Lib

    Okay,lets for a moment say we did that and the worst case occurred with unemloyment reaching 8% which would result in a massive level of welfare spendign and lost revenue has the middle class professionals spending declined.

    Surely that would have resulted in recession.

  10. Just been outside. Counted a whole 10 drops of rain on the roof….more please.

    Just hope the lightening strikes don’t start more fires particularly between here and Broome. Road was closed the other day because of fires 170k south of Broome.

    FMG had to evacuate one camp, Cloud Break out by Newman I think.

  11. Mod

    they would not have slammed the brakes on with the Carbon Tax

    So you do recognise Turnbull was never Liberal party leadership material!

  12. There is always the opportunity to provide ongoing measures to improve the economic position if it continued to deteriorate. The ALP just borrowed and spent and when they were boasting about having got us through the GFC they were still spending at the same rate (or higher) as when they said they needed to spend to get us out of it in the first place.

  13. [I have no doubt that we would be in surplus if the Liberals had been in power for the last 6 years.]

    No doubt.

    But there would’ve been more unemployed and more human collateral as a result.

    I guess it’s a question of priorities.

  14. The only people saying the Carbon “Tax” put the brakes on are the Liberals and their mates.

    Investment continued. Remember the Gina/Roy Hill debate?

    Investment has continued – traffic bridges being built over mining company rail because they are going to build second rail lines. The miners wouldn’t be investing in second lines for the hell of it.

  16. [AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 11:26 pm | PERMALINK
    The only people saying the Carbon “Tax” put the brakes on are the Liberals and their mates.]

    ….and the ALP Prime Minister
    ….and the ALP Treasurer
    ….and the ALP Minister in charge

    It must really annoy you guys that your own side blows up your arguments just as you are trying to formulate them! 😉

  17. If the Liberals had been in power for the last 6 years.

    one word – recession.

    Austerity is being tried in the UK and they are now almost worse off than they were during the GFC.

  19. Mod

    … your own side blows up your arguments …

    Wait, are we rusted on or aren’t we? I thought we didn’t think for ourselves? How about some consistency in your criticism?

  20. [DisplayName
    Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 11:30 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod

    … your own side blows up your arguments …

    Wait, are we rusted on or aren’t we? I thought we didn’t think for ourselves? How about some consistency in your criticism?]

    The fact that you are continuing to spout the arguments that have already been debunked by your own side is precisely a manifestation of being a blind partisan hack!

  21. ….and the ALP Prime Minister
    ….and the ALP Treasurer
    ….and the ALP Minister in charge

    When?

    I have looked and can’t find any such statements.

  24. Also, I would like a response regarding the noted inconsistency in support for Malcom Turnbull. He must be sorely disappointed, don’t you owe him an explanation?

  25. AA:

    Are you saying that you cannot find any statements from Rudd, Bowen or Dreyfus on the carbon tax?

    I am happy to help if that is what you are really saying.

    Is it?

  28. hey guys, re debt
    I thought Mr Hockey looked crestfallen and worried other day.
    The magnitude of the problem looked overwhelming for him, i thought. I reckon if he could he would cancel NBN, PPL and NDIS and start all over but those services are all expected now.
    It will take at least five years I reckon to look at a surplus. But that depends on having the one government in place for some years.

  35. paaptsef

    Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    Just one surplus….one…..is that so much to ask?

    pity we could only sell Telstra once
    ————————————————–

    In fairness around $40 billion of the funds from the sale of Telstra provided the start-up funding for the Future Fund.

    The billions in other asset sales such as our gold bullion are what assisted Howard.

  36. Mod Lib
    I would vote informal rather than for M. Turnbull.
    Voting informal is a statement in itself these days anyway and not being irresponsible so I wouldn’t feel bad about it.

  38. [What about the effects of the carbon tax on businesses and consumers.

    “Cost of living”…..remember?]

    Oh dear. You are slipping.

  39. Mod Lib

    Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    What about the effects of the carbon tax on businesses and consumers.

    “Cost of living”…..remember?
    —————————————————–

    remember inflation remained within the RBA range after the introduction of the carbon price. The effect on CoL was minimal

  42. So, Mod requires a party that Mod doesn’t like remain dysfunctional for as long as possible so that a party which Mod won’t vote for may remain in government as long possible and hopes that a politician, believed to be unsuitable by Mod, becomes its leader.

    That’s twisted!

  43. Despite the dire warnings about the carbon tax, Australia’s economy is still growing, creating jobs and registering a quite stunning lift in wealth, writes Stephen Koukoulas.

    The carbon price has been a dud. A dud that has supposedly been fuelling an inflation blowout and is wrecking the economy.

    News on Wednesday that the annual inflation rate has been a miserly 2.4 per cent in the 12 months since the carbon price was introduced puts paid, once and for all, to the claims that it was going to be an oppressive addition to cost of living pressures.

    Furthermore, since the price on carbon came into effect, more than half a trillion dollars has been added to the combined value of housing and stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. That is $500,000,000,000.00, or the equivalent of $22,000 for every man, woman and child, all of which has accrued in just over a year.

    And this half a trillion dollar does not include dividends, in the case of stocks, or actual and imputed rent on dwellings. Dividend payments on stocks over that time are around an additional $65 billion or so.

    This has been a period of stunning wealth creation in Australia, and more notable given many of the high-profile predictions that the introduction of a price on carbon would have on the economy.

    By Stephen Koukoulas

    Updated Fri 26 Jul 2013, 1:44pm AEST

  44. The Green voting proportion of this electorate are likely to increase because Melbourne is growing in population at above the state average and thus will loose area to seats including Wills and Brunswick also has growing infill density.

  45. Mod Lib

    Posted Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    The effect on CoL was minimal

    Tell the ALP Prime Minister, Treasurer and Minister Butler…
    ————————————————-

    Tell the RBA

  46. [ In fairness around $40 billion of the funds from the sale of Telstra provided the start-up funding for the Future Fund. ]
    it won’t be long until we’ve foregone 40 billion of Telstra profit if we haven’t already

  48. [That’s twisted!]

    The way you have contorted things to make it twisted certainly is! :devil:

    Mod wants Turnbull to lead a moderate Liberal party and keep the Union dominated ALP sell-outs as far from the Treasury benches for as long as possible.

    Not that hard really!

  49. prettyone@78


    hey guys, re debt
    I thought Mr Hockey looked crestfallen and worried other day.
    The magnitude of the problem looked overwhelming for him, i thought. I reckon if he could he would cancel NBN, PPL and NDIS and start all over but those services are all expected now.
    It will take at least five years I reckon to look at a surplus. But that depends on having the one government in place for some years.

    You are the dumbest person on the planet –

    PPL is abbott’s pet project. It should abandoned. But he is your hero.

    NBN might just help a lot of regional areas to get on their feet – so you are anti country as well ?

    NDIS – you don’t want to help fellow Australians live a full productive dignified life.

    Do everyone a favour – flush yourself down the dunny.

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