Essential Research and Morgan are still the only pollsters back in the game, and both have shifted slightly to the Coalition this week. The regular Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition lead up from 52-48 to 53-47, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (up one), 34% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Monthly personal ratings have Tony Abbott up five to an all-time high of 46% approval and down one on disapproval to 35%, and with a 41-22 lead over Bill Shorten (who doesn’t get his own personal ratings yet) as preferred prime minister. There are particularly large gender gaps in these results, Abbott having a net approval of plus 14 among men and zero among women, and leading Shorten 48-21 among men and 35-23 among women.
Pleasingly, this week’s supplementary questions look at electoral reform. A question on the Senate voting system offered respondents the option of keeping the present system (a surprisingly high 32%), introduce New South Wales-style optional preferential above-the-line voting (33%) or look into other options (20%). There also seems to be a benign attitude to the Senate’s crop of successful micro-party candidates, who despite having mostly scored very few votes are rated “good for democracy” by 36% and “bad for democracy by 26%, with 17% opting for no difference. Support for compulsory voting remains very high at 71% with only 25% opposed, closely reflecting results of a comprehensive Australian National University survey on attitudes to electoral reform from August. Essential also features a semi-regular question on same-sex marriage, with results essentially unchanged from May: support and opposition are both down a point, to 57% and 31% respectively.
The latest Morgan multi-mode poll, which will be reporting fortnightly for the rest of the year at least, is a better result for the Coalition than the last, having their primary vote up 1.5% to 43.5%, Labor’s down 2.5% to 34.5%, the Greens up a point to 10%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, Labor’s 50.5-49.5 lead from a fortnight ago has turned into a Coalition lead of 51.5-48.5, which aligns precisely with my own calculation based on modelling of preference flows from the recent election. Morgan is also publishing previous-election preference figures, but since they have made the curious determination to grant all PUP and KAP votes to the Coalition until the AEC makes available breakdowns from the election, they are of no value at present.
In other news, I had a post-mortem on Labor’s remarkable Miranda by-election victory in New South Wales in Crikey yesterday, available to subscribers only.
UPDATE (25/10): Morgan has published results from an online poll conducted on the weekend from a sample of 1169, which limits itself to the question of preferred prime minister. Despite the similar methodology, it’s considerably better for Bill Shorten than the Essential poll, putting Tony Abbott’s lead at 40-36 compared with Essential’s 41-22. Abbott’s lead is entirely down to those aged over 50, with Shorten leading in each of the three younger cohorts. Abbott’s lead is at 43-36 among men and 38-36 among women. Qualitative findings are also featured, which you can read here.
ajm (60)
I agree have been unfortunately a member of Medibank Private for more years than I can remember, not at all happy
rua
[So why the difference for Defence, who want to be indexed like Carers.]
RSL pokie expences?
Thanks Imacca
I have an android tablet to should be able to download
CTat1 – DFRDB closed to new members in about 1993.
[ You can retire at 35 on a full pension then get your mates to give you a APS job and get the benefit of a 20 yrs APS pension as well.]
And get a Gold Health Care Card.
Ruawake @105
You don’t get a Gold Card for doing nothing.
@darinsullivan09: NSW Libs upset – firefighters show spirit |#MirandaVotes #NSWpol #Auspol http://t.co/dMbawAMAWf
Looking at the Audit of Commission terms of references i think there is a strong case for having at least one tax expert.
The Audit is to look at the function of government and any duplication between the difference levels of government.
This surly will require advice on revenue.
One way to save money is for the Australian Govt to beat the UK Govt over the head to make it index British Pensions in Oz.
They are paying old age pensions to people who should be fully covered by UK payments.
[
Diogenes
Posted Tuesday, October 22, 2013 at 5:20 pm | Permalink
cigs – cancer is as definite as climate change – bushfires.
No it’s not.
There is no scientific proof that climate change has led to more bushfires yet. The IPCC says it is “highly likely” that there will be more bushfires by 2050.
“Highly likely” is not nearly as definitive as the link between lung cancer and smoking. Smoking increases your risk of most types of lung cancer by about 10 times.
We aren’t exactly getting ten times as many bushfires.
]
Come on Diogenes get real.
Hot=fire.
I would argue the link is cleaner. Smoking=cancer reuires you to understand things most people don’t, like what damages DNA.
Well my now deceased grandmother had a gold card, she meet and married a war veteran after the war ended
[You don’t get a Gold Card for doing nothing.]
You just have to turn 70, if you care to look.
[ This surly will require advice on revenue.]
You miss the political purpose and intent of the entire exercise.
They already have a pretty good list of what they intend to do – handed to them by murdoch, gina, the IPA, and their other faceless backers.
You have to work at that all your life until you’re 70, rua!
diog
[“Highly likely” is not nearly as definitive as the link between lung cancer and smoking. Smoking increases your risk of most types of lung cancer by about 10 times.
We aren’t exactly getting ten times as many bushfires.]
Tsk. You know yourself this argument is complete crap.
Whether or not something causes something else has nothing to do with how much of something else there is.
Go wash your brain out with soap.
[“Highly likely” is not nearly as definitive as the link between lung cancer and smoking. ]
If your body guard said it was “highly likely” that you will be shot if you went outside would you walk outside to see if it was true ?
dave
Yes I’ve seen the IPA list and my point is more a backhander for if the government was serious it would be taking a serious look at the structure and function of government.
93
Pension is the word for fixed retirement and disability payments throughout the English speaking world. It started with a retirement home for soldiers in England and they were called pensioners (From the french for boarder) and then a scheme for paying retired soldiers not living a the retirement home, who became out-pensioners and eventually the out was dropped. They were gradually extended to the rest of the public service and parts of the private sector. From the late 19th/early 20th centuries universal/means-tested public pension systems have been set up for the whole population.
[So Hockey is going to add nearly 40% to the debt level.]
Attending weddings can be quite expensive.
Terms of Reference are there to be read.
Now would be a good time to release the findings and recommendations that the Commission is required to tailor their report around
If I recall correctly – Abbott was supposed to resign or be replaced because is personal ratings were bad – Shorten on 22 has to go, doesn’t he?
It seems the greater liar and hypocrite you are the more popular you get.
Truly depressing how the moron effect has taken over this country.
TTFAB
There are 3 Pensions in Australia.
Old Age Pension
Disability Support Pension
Carer Payment
All other payments are forms of Superannuation.
The IPA is doing abysmally in getting its’ agenda implemented if it’s only got a couple out of 75. That’s a major fail really.
Patience, CC, patience. Our lizard overlords work on a much longer timescale than we humans.
Oh dear a couple of unicorns floating around now?
Ruawake – an income stream from a superannuation fund is called a pension.
You don’t get to make up your own definitions.
And ruawake superannuation is a trust structure.
That’s the way Rex – insult the voters – #winning.
mexicanbeemer@117
They are very serious in doing what this faceless backers tell them to do. That about it. Nothing changes with the tories.
(1) Suck up to the rich
(2) Screw the ordinary person
(3) Stick it to the unfortunate
(4) Ravish the arts
(5) Root the environment
dave, are you trying to say they have sex on the brain?
Mr 22 percent – that’s even less than the ALP Membership vote for him. Lucky he’s got the Unions covering his back (with targets).
How low does the FP and 2PP go before a challenge? Any change from the Rudd-Gillard metrics?
DisplayName@131
Don’t they have lizard brains?
Cranky
Tell that to all the self funded superannuates out there, note they don’t call themselves self funded pensioners.
The issue is 3 pensions are indexed one way, the defence super payees want their super payouts to be indexed in the same way, its crap.
The woman doing the hand signal stuff at The Fire Commissioner’s briefing almost had his eye out this arvo.
Compact Crank@132
Labor has you worried so soon – otherwise you wouldn’t be ranting on about them non stop.
You would be telling us about the tory’s achievements.
Hang on! tory achievements – an oxymoron.
CTar1
I think they do a brilliant job. Most of them are very graceful.
fess
[How on earth can people think that a Senator who is elected based on minuscule voter support is good for democracy?]
I suspect that’s a comment on the fairly low esteem in which the major parties are held.
I don’t share it, but that’s it IMO.
Bushfire @BushfireBill 38m
IT’S OFFICIAL! Even The OZ agrees Joe’s #Auspol debt hike is a “surprise”. pic.twitter.com/SIUFhPx0Wr
Ange Postecoglou gets the Socceroo gig, great to see it going to an Aussie.
lizzie – This afternoon’s one is very energetic!
You cannot prove that Climate Change has caused an individual bushfire, nor can you prove that smoking caused an individual case of lung cancer. However, smokers die of lung cancer at many more times the rate of those who have never smoked. The link is clear enough that no one would encourage their child or grandchild to smoke, nor does anyone who’s grown past the phase of a teenager wanting to look grown up take up smoking.
The indications of climate change are becoming clearer and the science on which climate change is being inferred is sound. The link between burning fossil fuels and global warming is not as certain as that between smoking and lung cancer but it is becoming clearer. Minor changes and cost increases versus the disasters that would flow from a four to six degree rise in global temperatures? Maybe the 3% of climate scientists are right. Maybe when the IPCC says there’s a 95% chance that global warming is caused by human activity, it turns out to be the other 5%. And maybe you could take up smoking and live to 90. But we’d be crazy to risk it.
134
127 is correct to the extent that the income from defined benefits schemes are pensions. They may be sold under different names and have differently named sub-categories, but they are still pensions. Not all pensions are welfare.
z and frednk
Show me the scientific evidence that AGW has led to more bushfires.
There is a difference between what you would politically like to be true and what the scientific evidence currently shows.
[Not all pensions are welfare.]
The ones indexed by CPI, Male earnings or Pensioner CPI are.
(This is the issue).
[Show me the scientific evidence that AGW has led to more bushfires.]
By the time that can be put beyond doubt, Diog, it’ll be far too late.
You’re supposed to be intelligent aren’t you?
Diogenes@144
I don’t think that can be done.
It doesn’t mean voters won’t think it does though – particularly if we have a nasty summer.
steve
[The link between burning fossil fuels and global warming is not as certain as that between smoking and lung cancer but it is becoming clearer.]
Thank God we have someone who understands science. The link between CO2 emissions and bushfires is obviously less certain that the link between CO2 and climate change.
I agree with the IPCC findings.
What Dio says is correct – the predictions have not been supported by the evidence.
Bill and dave
I am NOT arguing that we shouldn’t address climate change.
I think we should be doing a lot more than Labor or Liberals planned on doing.
I am disagreeing with statements which are without a scientific basis.