Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition; Morgan: 51.5-48.5

Essential Research records a spike on Tony Abbott’s monthly approval rating, and finds less concern about the Senate electoral system than one feels there should be.

Essential Research and Morgan are still the only pollsters back in the game, and both have shifted slightly to the Coalition this week. The regular Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition lead up from 52-48 to 53-47, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (up one), 34% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Monthly personal ratings have Tony Abbott up five to an all-time high of 46% approval and down one on disapproval to 35%, and with a 41-22 lead over Bill Shorten (who doesn’t get his own personal ratings yet) as preferred prime minister. There are particularly large gender gaps in these results, Abbott having a net approval of plus 14 among men and zero among women, and leading Shorten 48-21 among men and 35-23 among women.

Pleasingly, this week’s supplementary questions look at electoral reform. A question on the Senate voting system offered respondents the option of keeping the present system (a surprisingly high 32%), introduce New South Wales-style optional preferential above-the-line voting (33%) or look into other options (20%). There also seems to be a benign attitude to the Senate’s crop of successful micro-party candidates, who despite having mostly scored very few votes are rated “good for democracy” by 36% and “bad for democracy by 26%, with 17% opting for no difference. Support for compulsory voting remains very high at 71% with only 25% opposed, closely reflecting results of a comprehensive Australian National University survey on attitudes to electoral reform from August. Essential also features a semi-regular question on same-sex marriage, with results essentially unchanged from May: support and opposition are both down a point, to 57% and 31% respectively.

The latest Morgan multi-mode poll, which will be reporting fortnightly for the rest of the year at least, is a better result for the Coalition than the last, having their primary vote up 1.5% to 43.5%, Labor’s down 2.5% to 34.5%, the Greens up a point to 10%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, Labor’s 50.5-49.5 lead from a fortnight ago has turned into a Coalition lead of 51.5-48.5, which aligns precisely with my own calculation based on modelling of preference flows from the recent election. Morgan is also publishing previous-election preference figures, but since they have made the curious determination to grant all PUP and KAP votes to the Coalition until the AEC makes available breakdowns from the election, they are of no value at present.

In other news, I had a post-mortem on Labor’s remarkable Miranda by-election victory in New South Wales in Crikey yesterday, available to subscribers only.

UPDATE (25/10): Morgan has published results from an online poll conducted on the weekend from a sample of 1169, which limits itself to the question of preferred prime minister. Despite the similar methodology, it’s considerably better for Bill Shorten than the Essential poll, putting Tony Abbott’s lead at 40-36 compared with Essential’s 41-22. Abbott’s lead is entirely down to those aged over 50, with Shorten leading in each of the three younger cohorts. Abbott’s lead is at 43-36 among men and 38-36 among women. Qualitative findings are also featured, which you can read here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,199 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition; Morgan: 51.5-48.5”

Comments Page 2 of 64
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  2. Guytaur.

    Dick Smith is a self serving economic nationalist – I wouldn’t be seeking any advice from him on major economic decisions.

  3. AA

    [Of course none of those on the Commission of Audit would have any vested interest.]

    Transfield Services have long wanted to build and run the second Sydney Airport.

  4. Bushfire @BushfireBill
    “NO SURPRISES” – debt ceiling up astronomically. “NO EXCUSES” – Hockey blames Labor. #Auspol now at Farce Factor #11. Media? Nodding heads.

  6. Guytaur @55

    Yeah yeah – heard it all before.

    The left wing ideologues had their chance for the last six years and didn’t that work out well….who’s the Government now?

  9. Six years of Abbott/Hockey etc ranting about Government debt and now they are doing the same.

    Borrowing at around $100million a day

  10. Well, I see the coalition are out to rob me of the equity I should have in Medibank Private which I have been a member of since its inception. MBF had to pay out its members when it sold out to BUPA but no such luck for those who have dutifully paid their Medibank Private premiums for years, helping it to build up its capital value.

    I was wondering if I would have a direct personal reason to hate the Abbott Government (apart from despising what it’s doing to other people) but it looks like I’ve got the reason now.

  11. [PeeBee
    Posted Tuesday, October 22, 2013 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

    And as someone who actually has a PhD in science, I know that you can’t demonstrate that any single bushfire is due to climate change.

    Just like no-one can point to which cigarette caused the cancer.
    ]

    To get your analogies right I think it would have been better to write:

    [Just like you can’t show the cancer was caused by cigarette smoking even if the sucker smoked.]

    The cancer and bushfires are the result.
    Cigarettes and climate change add to the risk.

  14. Crank

    This Commission of Audit is Abbott’s “WorkChoices”

    Everyone does know Labor left the place in good shape despite the LNP lies.
    When cuts hurt people purely for ideology the party that is hurting the people loses voter support rapidly

  15. “@lyndalcurtis: Coming up on #capitalhill the Finance Minister @MathiasCormann & the Shadow AG Mark Dreyfus. Plus our MPs panel @ABCNews24 in 5 mins.”

  16. Crank

    I think the Government should look at the whole running of Government therefore why not include a tax person.

    A Tax person will be able to provide insight into the tax system and how it interacts with the economy.

  17. ajm – and the rest of us taxpayers don’t own any equity?

    Where in you agreement does it say you were part of some ownership structure?

  21. Lets take Tony Shepard, I have heard him asked what sorts of things would he do and his answers are somewhat vague.

    Its all good to argue that government should let business get on with doing business but government needs to function.

    If Government doesn’t function then business is bound to suffer the flow on affects.

  23. One of the joke audits tor.

    -privatisation of Commonwealth assets.

    So get ready for Medibank Private, Aust Post, ABC and SBS to be in the firing line. You know Rupert wants it.

  24. Mexicanbeemer – we had the Henry Review but the ALP ignored it.

    It’s a review of expenditure and outcomes – not tax.

  26. I don’t think there is a market for the ABC and SBS

    The current FTA networks are struggling and that doesn’t look like changing anytime soon.

  29. “@Picketer: Given Joe outsourced the Commission of Audit to BCA, there should have been a competitive tender. @MattCowgill & I might have made a bid.”

  32. This one’s a hoot.

    [to make recommendations to achieve savings
    sufficient to deliver a surplus of 1 per cent of GDP prior to 2023-24. ]

    So we now have the Libs return to Surplus date, a decade away.

  39. There is a difference between the Cigs-cancer and AGW-bushfires link.

    Cigs-cancer is definite.

    The best scientific evidence is that it is “highly likely” that there will be more bushfires by 2050.

  40. CTar1 – DFRDB is a defined benefit scheme and the issue is that it is the only Government Pension scheme left out of all the increases in recent times – I thought you lefties were all into equity and fairness – DFRDB Pensioners have been treated atrociously.

  43. [CTar1 – DFRDB is a defined benefit scheme and the issue is that it is the only Government Pension scheme left out of all the increases in recent times]

    How can a defined benefit be a pension? Any public servant on an old defined benefit scheme (ie most over 65) are indexed by CPI. So why the difference for Defence, who want to be indexed like Carers.

  44. From the commission of audit –

    [ National Commission of Audit – Terms of Reference
    CONTEXT

    Commonwealth government has expanded significantly, as has the remit of some of its activities.

    It is therefore timely that there should be another full
    scale review of the activities of the Commonwealth government to:

    – ensure taxpayers are receiving value for money from each
    dollar spent;

    – eliminate wasteful spending; ]

    So start with politicians expenses claims first.

  45. Rumbles in Spring St, Melb?
    [John Ferguson@theoz ‏@fergusonjw 3m
    TED Baillieu pushing to become planning minister, according to multiple sources. #springst ]

  47. For you Confessions from one of my Twitter followers re The Universe Isn’t it beautiful?

    The APOD android app is a good one. Puts these on as my phone wallpaper as they come out.

  48. DFRDB people can double-dip.

    ie You can retire at 35 on a full pension then get your mates to give you a APS job and get the benefit of a 20 yrs APS pension as well.

  49. [cigs – cancer is as definite as climate change – bushfires.]

    No it’s not.

    There is no scientific proof that climate change has led to more bushfires yet. The IPCC says it is “highly likely” that there will be more bushfires by 2050.

    “Highly likely” is not nearly as definitive as the link between lung cancer and smoking. Smoking increases your risk of most types of lung cancer by about 10 times.

    We aren’t exactly getting ten times as many bushfires.

  50. [The issues of coal seam gas and free trade are combining to create a perfect storm for the National Party, and in turn, the Coalition government. Tony Abbott obviously saw the clouds on the horizon before the election and responded by declaring that a Liberal would hold the Trade portfolio for the first time since Menzies was prime minister.

    But while keeping the Nationals at arm’s length from trade negotiations might have been easy, holding their votes in the Senate could be much harder.]

    http://www.tai.org.au/content/trade-threatens-split-coalition

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