Morgan and Essential polls

Neither Morgan nor Essential finds the government enjoying much of a honeymoon, while Morgan has Anthony Albanese well ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred Labor leader.

Morgan has published its first multi-mode poll since the election, and Essential its second online poll (the latter will henceforth publish on Tuesdays rather than Mondays). Even if you doubt the value of voting intention polling at this point of the cycle, the results are of interest with respect to the Labor leadership. If you don’t doubt the value of voting intention polling, the results are of interest in pointing to a weak Coalition honeymoon.

Starting with voting intention:

• Essential Research has the Coalition lead at 51-49 on the current two-week rolling average, combining results from 1042 respondents in this week’s survey from Thursday to Sunday and 844 from the week before. This leaves the Coalition two points down on a less than spectacular showing last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 43%, Labor up one to 37% and the Greens steady on 9%.

• The Morgan SMS, online and face-to-face poll of 2999 respondents, conducted from Saturday to Monday, has the Coalition on 43.5%, Labor on 34%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 4%. This compares with election results on current counting of 45.6%, 33.4%, 8.6% and 5.5%. This translates into a headline two-party figure of 50.5-49.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but it’s a more comfortable 52.5-47.5 on preferences from the September 7 election (though I’m not sure exactly how minor party preference splits were determined given all the votes aren’t in). It is of course enormously unlikely that minor party preference allocations would have changed so dramatically over a fortnight, a further pointer to the dubiousness of respondent-allocation.

• Morgan has good news for Anthony Albanese, who is favoured over Bill Shorten 41% to 23% among all voters, 46% to 32% among Labor voters, 38% to 18% among Coalition voters and 48% to 12% among Greens voters. The gap is widest and narrowest and Albanese and Shorten’s respective home states of New South Wales and Victoria. The qualitative findings here are unusually interesting: “Electors who preferred Anthony Albanese often mentioned Shorten’s role in the demise of former Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, Shorten’s strong links to the unions, and also his links to the Governor-General as well as Albanese’s better policy expertise, experience and personality.”

• Essential finds Tony Abbott with similarly modest leads as preferred prime minister over both Albanese (37-31) and Shorten (37-32).

• Essential at least has had a bounce on personal approval, in net terms at least – his approval is up only one point since his last poll as Opposition Leader on September 2 to 41%, but his disapproval is down 13% to 36% (making for a big increase in “don’t know”.

• Essential finds 45% concerned about the lack of women in cabinet against 50% not concerned, with splits of 39-57 among men, 51-42 among women, 67-29 among Labor voters and 17-80 among Coalition voters.

• Also featured in Essential are questions on trust in use of personal information by various professions and organisations, and the value or otherwise of foreign investment in farm land.

UPDATE: Morgan has kindly provided me with its qualitative responses from the Labor leadership question, and I’ve run the responses through a word cloud generator. Note that in doing so I’ve merged together a couple of words like “don’t like”, “don’t trust” and “prime minister”. You can get a considerably bigger image by clicking on the images below.

First up, the 443 responses from Anthony Albanese supporters, for whom the primary reason for backing Albanese appears to have been Bill Shorten:

And now the 229 responses from Bill Shorten supporters:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,277 comments on “Morgan and Essential polls”

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  1. [Psephos
    Posted Friday, September 27, 2013 at 8:35 pm | Permalink

    Here is a extensive presentation of Indonesia’s base line. You can be a lot further than 22KM from Java and still be in Indonesia’s teritorial waters.

    Not off the south coast. Territorial waters is 12 nautical miles (22km).

    Not the case; their base line is specified by points, not the coast. The Navy will know this even if ABC reporters and Psephos don’t.

  2. So all this hoohaa is about one boatload of AS being returned to Indonesia, but what about the ten or so boats with over 1000 AS passengers that have arrived since the Abbott became PM?

  3. zoidlord

    Posted Friday, September 27, 2013 at 8:23 pm | Permalink



    So why were the navy used?
    Because they were the nearest ship that could render assistance

  4. Most of those boats arrived between election day and when Abbott was sworn in as PM.

    Three years to go. If the boats are down to one a month or so in three years time all this hoo ha will look quaintly old-fashioned.

  5. DisplayName

    Psephos, maybe Australia has already crashed its train full of money into Indonesia? ]
    It was nae accident that Howie, to the surprise of all , promised Indonesia a lazy billion dollars after the tsunami.

  6. DisplayName@3099


    To strike a deal, both sides have to be better off.
    So what would it take to make Indonesia feel better off without Australia being worse off (worst case) or significantly better off (best case)?

    That merely sets a minimum that Indonesia might take them back for. For Indonesia it’s win-win. For Australia as a whole, it’s lose-lose. For Abbott, it’s a loss if there’s no deal. The question is what price Abbott’s face.

    If you cannot strike a mutually advantageous deal that puts you in a better position than previously, you just walk away from it. If you want to seriously negotiate, you have to be prepared to do that.

  7. William

    The comments about the doco are scathing however. The Italian justice system is so bad we will never know what happened.

    The Brits really hate Knox and the Yanks love her. Everything about the case is coloured.

  8. One of Howard’s very good decisions was to provide a very, very quick $1 billion loan to Thailand when the hedge funds were trying to destroy the Thai currency. Naturally the hedge fund investors would not have given a toss about the collateral damage in human misery. Once they realized that Australia was prepared to step in a back the Thai currency it was all over red rover with the trashing.

    Howard was not all bad.

  9. Relevent bits:

    The 44 asylum seekers and two crew members were on a boat which issued a distress call 40 nautical miles off Java yesterday morning.

    It is understood the handover took place just outside the 12 nautical mile limit of Indonesian territorial waters.

    Picked up 40 nautical miles off Java… delivered 12 nautical miles off Java

    Like you said Nastie Me you can have your own opinion but not your facts.

    It is understood the handover took place just outside the 12 nautical mile limit of Indonesian territorial waters.

    Why did you delete the word “outside”?

  10. [Not the case; their base line is specified by points, not the coast. The Navy will know this even if ABC reporters and Psephos don’t.]

    The maps that you yourself were good enough to provide show that off the south coast of Java Indonesia’s territorial waters do not extend to any significant extent beyond the traditional 22km zone.

  11. [ promised Indonesia a lazy billion dollars after the tsunami. ]
    500 million grant plus 500 million highly concessional loan. Indonesia reported they didn’t really need the loan because they had received so much international aid.
    Howard said wtte meh take it anyway and fix potholes or something (aka EINRIP).
    At this time there was a completely coincidental stopping of the boats.

  12. Diogenes, Knox is the subject of a tightly connected internet hate cult which projects its various biases and neuroses on the matter (anti-Americanism most certainly being in the mix), whose adherents immediately clog up comments threads on the subject wherever they emerge. I don’t actually think we need rely on the Italian justice system to know what happened. It’s pretty straightforward as far I’m concerned.

  13. William

    If it’s so straightforward, why did Knox accuse someone who was innocent?

    I don’t understand the violent hatred towards Knox. Is it anti-Americanism from the Brits? I think it’s something more primitive than that.

  14. 40 nautical miles off Java is in international waters I take it but within Indonesia’s S&R zone under the Convention.

    Under the Convention countries can agree to arrangements in International Waters.

    It is therefore possible for Australia to agree to rescue people with Indonesia’s formal agreement on the basis that Indonesia would take them.

    Doing the handover just outside Indonesia’s territorial waters avoids engagement in a higher level of formal agreement, paricularly if the rescue was carried out by a warship.

    The question remains: Why did the Indonesians agree in this instance to accept the transfer?

  15. [If it’s so straightforward, why did Knox accuse someone who was innocent?]

    Because they told her she’d go to jail for 30 years if she didn’t. Her interrogators at this stage believed him and not her to be the murderer, and thought she was covering for him.

  16. Dio

    ‘I think Julie Bishop is a hottie but I think Janet Albrechtsen is even better.

    I can’t help myself.’

    Consult BK. He overcame an even worse affliction.

  17. BW

    [The question remains: Why did the Indonesians agree in this instance to accept the transfer?]

    Why didn’t the bloody asylum seekers refuse to get off the boat? Are they all Liberal voters?

  18. Dio
    I imagine that a lieutenant commander with an eye on rapid promotion might have offered negative reinforcement if they didn’t. Who knows?

  19. poroti, paaptsef

    So there we go then. Us bludgers are getting all excited over Abbott’s imminent failure while ignoring that he learned at the feet of a master pot hole fixer :P.

  20. Boerwar

    Posted Friday, September 27, 2013 at 8:49 pm | Permalink

    Psephos’ relevant question stands. Why did the Indonesians accept the rescued people?

    No idea. Have to ask the skipper of the Indonesian boat .

  21. In my opinion she did not either.

    One thing it shows is that if you don’t behave how the police and media expect you to, especially if you are a woman, there is he’ll to pay.

  22. [George Roberts @George_Roberts 51m
    For the 2nd time in 24 hours, Aust authorities are attempting to return asylum seekers to Indonesia after rescuing them at sea.

    George Roberts @George_Roberts 50m
    An Australian Customs ship ACV Triton is trying to get permission to enter Indonesian waters to offload 31 #asylum seekers

    George Roberts @George_Roberts 29m
    The Aust Maritime Safety Authority has told Indonesia agency “the preference is for a transfer at sea” of rescued asylum seekers to Indo]

    If this has only happened once before, now suddenly there’s 2 in 24 hours, it would seem there is a new operational approach.

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