Bordered to the north by the Murray River, the electorate of Indi covers an area of northern Victoria including Wangaratta, Benalla and the border town of Wodonga. It produced one of the biggest boilovers of the 2013 election with the defeat of cabinet minister-in-waiting Sophie Mirabella at the hands of conservative independent Cathy McGowan, whose win marked the first time since 1931 that the seat was not in the hands of one of the main coalition parties. Indi has existed without interruption since federation and only ever won by Labor in 1910, 1914, 1928 (when Labor’s Paul Jones was elected unopposed after Country Party incumbent Robert Cook forgot to nominate) and 1929, from which time it shifted decisively to the conservatives. It was thereafter fought over between the Country Party and the Liberal Party (together with its predecessor the United Australia Party), the member from 1937 to 1949 being Country Party titan John “Black Jack” McEwen, who moved to the new seat of Murray with the expansion of parliament in 1949. The Nationals last held the seat in 1977, when their incumbent Mac Holten was defeated by Liberal candidate Ewen Cameron on Labor preferences. The Nationals contested in 2001 when Cameron’s successor Lou Lieberman retired, but managed only 12.3%.
The new Liberal member in 2001 was Sophie Panopoulos, a barrister and Australians for Constititutional Monarchy activist. Panopoulos married in 2006 and assumed her husband’s surname of Mirabella. Mirabella became noted for her aggressive parliamentary style, and was promoted to shadow cabinet in the innovation, industry, science and research portfolio when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009. McGowan’s challenge to Mirabella arose out of a local activist group called Voice for Indi, which initially declared itself set on “improving the political process in the electorate” rather than mounting an electoral challenge. The group says it resolved to field a candidate after Mirabella gave their concerns short shrift, informing them that the real concerns of her constituents aligned with her party leader’s oft-repeated soundbites.
The candidate nominated by Voice for Indi was Cathy McGowan, a rural affairs consultant and former regional councillor for the Victorian Farmers Federation who had once worked for Liberal member Ewen Cameron. With McGowan to rally behind, the organisation proved adept at fund-raising and use of social media, and it soon became apparent that it was succeeding in tapping into a perception that Mirabella was a Melburnian careerist with an insufficient connection to the local area. McGowan’s profile was further lifted when retiring New England independent Tony Windsor told the ABC’s Insiders program that the “nasty” Mirabella was the person he would least miss in politics, and that McGowan was an “excellent independent” whose campaign he might lend support.
Also lending McGowan support was Ken Jasper, who served Wangaratta and surrounding areas in state parliament for 34 years, retiring as member for Murray Valley at the 2010 election. McGowan appeared to benefit from friction between the coalition parties spilling over from the contest for Mallee, which the Liberals were seeking to win upon the retirement of Nationals member John Forrest. Reports indicated that local Nationals had been quietly told they would not face disciplinary action if they lent support to McGowan.
McGowan went on to prevail after polling 31.2% to Mirabella’s 44.7%, which was down from 51.8% in 2010. This left McGowan well clear of the Labor candidate on 11.6%, down from 28.2%, and she was narrowly able to close the primary vote gap after picking up 79% of Labor and minor party preferences.
NB: Hat tip to Ben Raue at The Tally Room, whose Google Earth maps I’m using for the electoral boundaries displayed in the map above. Raue does tremendous work on his blog and deserves donations. Note also that you can get a slightly bigger image of the above map by clicking on it.
bemused Posted Monday, September 23, 2013 at 10:04 am @ 68
The difference is that Governments face an opposition that often actively campaigns against the change. Add to that opposition from vested interests and a media that promotes controversy and conflict and selling change becomes difficult. I think it’s one reason proposed changes are often not subject to full public debate. More’s the pity.
Yes, Australian fauna must feel terribly “rejuvinated” at the moment. Extinction is very “rejuvinating”.
Tricot Posted Monday, September 23, 2013 at 10:38 am @ 111
Not quite. Few women, lots of private school Catholics
Geoff Posted Monday, September 23, 2013 at 11:11 am @ 148
After having one of its driest Julys, and July is normally out wettest month. If it hadn’t been for the desal plants Perth would just about be out of water.
The WA Farmers wouldn’t be bleating so much if the dollar was lower and commodity prices higher.
B.C. – you make it sound as if relying on Desal Plants is a bad thing.
Shold human life only rely on rainfall held in dams? No other sources?
B.C.@151
You make a valid point, and what is taught is aimed at change within an organisation, such as a company or government department.
But just as governments and political parties have opponents, any suggested change in an organisation will encounter opposition from vested interests who will be disadvantaged.
The principles of communicating and building support for change remain much the same.
AA
[The water we have on earth is all we have. There is no more water, there is no magical water pipe from outer space to replenish what we have.]
True, but irrelevant. The planet has roughly as much water as it had 4.4 billion years ago. The problem is not with the volume of water but its distribution and condition. We want potable (or near potable) water where it suits us, when it suits us and not where it doesn’t and that requires energy — lots of energy — if the places on the land humans occupy aren’t well served by the ecosystem in this respect or if the sources we do get become tainted.
[If it hadn’t been for the desal plants Perth would just about be out of water.]
This is a result of a growing population in an area that has large swings in wet and dry.
[148
Geoff
You just had the wettest month since 1996 and you are set to have another wet month.
You will find that the next 3-7 years (maybe more) will be good for WA.
Inland farming will spring back to life.
After that you will go back into a drought cycle for another 5-10 years and inland farming will suffer.]
How do you know? Do you know? Or are you just guessing? Or just wishing? What is the basis for your forecast?
This is also a good article by Peter Martin Abbott’s poorly built cabinet can’t hope to last.
And Larry Graham on GST: the new vein for Barnett’s spending addiction where he explains why WA shouldn’t complain too much about the distribution of GST revenue.
B.C. @154 – so, instead of desal plants we should be using the the South West Yaragadee Acquifier?
Agreed – if it is cheaper than Desal.
Compact Crank
Posted Monday, September 23, 2013 at 11:12 am | Permalink
AA @145 – economic development leads to improved environmental outcomes – cleaner air, cleaner water and improvements in soil managmeent, reafforestation and fauna rejuvination.
========================================================
Without controls and limits on pollutions in place development only leads to an increase in pollutants, land degradation and defroestation. (ie Co4 plan for Tas forests)
There is cost to proper development that reduces pollutions. And that cost is borne by the consumer one way or another. High taxation or high prices.
The current carbon price (tax for the less intelligent) is the equivalent of $550 per year, one pint of beer per week.
How are people going to explain to their grandchildren/future generations that they thought this was too expensive? Or is going to be – it was a plan of a political party we didn’t like so we did away with it for political reasons not because we had a better plan.
[Is it true, by the way, that over half the Abbott cabinet is Catholic? Not that it matters.]
The Coalition cabinet has the highest amount of Belgians in it in Australian history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathias_Cormann
Will Labor start setting Belgian quotas?
Compact Crank Posted Monday, September 23, 2013 at 11:20 am @ 156
I actually think it was a good move by the Gallop Government to build the plants. Far better than Barnett’s Kimberly pipe dream.
[The WA Farmers wouldn’t be bleating so much if the dollar was lower and commodity prices higher]
Yes they would, they’d be bleating about something else.
[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 42s
Govt borrowing in the week ahead: $800mil for 3 years; $500mil for 3 mths; $500mil for 6 mths; $800mil for 11 years. Total $2.6bil by Friday]
[How do you know? Do you know? Or are you just guessing? Or just wishing? What is the basis for your forecast?]
It is part of the Australian Drought Cycle. Having years of drought then years of plenty is not new for Asutralia.
Geoff
Those “good” numbers reflect the trend for “winter rains” to fall later. Winter saw rainfall 126 mm below average. The trend of the SW of Australia to dry out continues.
Socrates 11
My view is the clause of boats arrival is the Cattle issue. We humiliated the Indonesian government over the issue, so they stop harrassing the Boats operators, who then have a free hand in delivering more and more people to Australia. Which at the same time reduces the refugee issue in Indonesia.
However this green light is leding more people to go via Indonesia to Australia today and will take time to stop
[The climate has always changed and always will. The question that is unresolved is … whether or not it is politcially and economically possible to ameliorate that impact]
The answer to that question is an unqualfiied and unreserved yes. The problem is not that it is politically impossible, it is that the Liberal party is attempting to make it impossible. That’s not politics, that’s the Liberal party.
AA @163 – what actual physical impact would Australia’s CO2 Tax have on Global and Australian Temperatures and when?
Lloyd Rayner judgment handed down soon. Will be very interesting.
[The trend of the SW of Australia to dry out continues.]
But when does your trend start?
Has the last drought cycle been rather harsh on Australia? Yes.
But Can you argue that is due to Man Made Climate change?
FarQU @171 – what Australia does doesn’t mean four fifths of SFA – climate change is a global issue that requires a global agreemetn that is economically, environmentally and politically effective. The Kyoto protocol has been a complete failure – global emmissions have skyrocketted. Copenhagen was an abysmal failure. The world can’t even agree on effective global trade agreements and stoping each other killing ourselves – and you think an agreement on global emmissions is going to be achieved?
[ AA @163 – what actual physical impact would Australia’s CO2 Tax have on Global and Australian Temperatures and when? ]
Classic stage 4 denial question. Straight off the hymn sheet.
Yes, it’s funny to argue that “something is politically impossible” … as a political tactic to be self-fulfilling.
If there weren’t people arguing that “it’s all too hard”, it wouldn’t be too hard.
[ FarQU @171 – what Australia does doesn’t mean four fifths of SFA – climate change is a global issue that requires a global agreemetn that is economically, environmentally and politically effective. The Kyoto protocol has been a complete failure – global emmissions have skyrocketted. Copenhagen was an abysmal failure. The world can’t even agree on effective global trade agreements and stoping each other killing ourselves – and you think an agreement on global emmissions is going to be achieved? ]
Ditto.
Player One
I thought the same. 😉
Sean Tisme
Posted Monday, September 23, 2013 at 11:31 am | Permalink
Is it true, by the way, that over half the Abbott cabinet is Catholic? Not that it matters.
The Coalition cabinet has the highest amount of Belgians in it in Australian history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathias_Cormann
Will Labor start setting Belgian quotas?
=====================================================
I hope you are wrong that we have people who are not Australian citizens in our Parliament.
Another moron comment fro Nastie Me
Geoff
How can a request for specific data be satisfied by the response that the data is “part of the Australian Drought Cycle”. That’s just a hand wave.
It sounds as if you are simply making this up. It wouldn’t be the first time that opponents of science-based policy in climate have done so.
Compact Crank
Posted Monday, September 23, 2013 at 11:30 am | Permalink
B.C. @154 – so, instead of desal plants we should be using the the South West Yaragadee Acquifier?
Agreed – if it is cheaper than Desal.
=======================================================
And when the levels in the aquifier drop and we get a problem with salt on the land, trees dying because the levels have dropped what then?
It can’t always just be about money. Although it is very seen that Liberals have taken to worshipping money about everything else
Shellbell – is this the defamation case, and is it based only on the fact the police said he was the ‘prime and only suspect’ in the murder of his wife?
What do you make of it? Is this a problem for police releasing information publicly about investigations if this case is successful?
lizzie
Posted Monday, September 23, 2013 at 11:34 am | Permalink
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 42s
Govt borrowing in the week ahead: $800mil for 3 years; $500mil for 3 mths; $500mil for 6 mths; $800mil for 11 years. Total $2.6bil by Friday
======================================================
So this is how Abbott and the Coalition-of-Four Govt address the budget “emergency” – borrow more money.
Sorta reminds me of the person with several credit cards taking money from one credit card to make the payments on the other credit cards and so on.
Jackol Posted Monday, September 23, 2013 at 11:53 am @ 183
No, this is the crown’s appeal against some of the Judge’s decisions in Rayney’s aquital.
Player One
Posted Monday, September 23, 2013 at 11:47 am | Permalink
AA @163 – what actual physical impact would Australia’s CO2 Tax have on Global and Australian Temperatures and when?
Classic stage 4 denial question. Straight off the hymn sheet.
===================================================
Abbott has really sold people on the lie that Australia is the only country doing anything.
Gullible and stupid are those who believe that.
Its obvious that these people have a computer, they are posting on here, – but they seem unable to use their computer to verify facts. Scared they will find out the truth about what other countries are doing?
It has been a while (certainly pre-election) since anyone at this blog (or in other places I frequent on the web, has mentioned boats and “drownings” on the web.
I’d say that means that the Political Cant Index has declined (though this may need to be seasonally adjusted as the LNP has just won an election and the ALP no longer needs to pretend that their policy was driven by concern over drownings. The last rationale I’ve seen here (democracy@work) focused on the well worn “queue jumpers” and the Howardesque Psephos doing the sovereign borders schtick.
I suppose that’s progress in the struggle against bullsh|t.
Jackol @183 – no, it’s the appeal against his acquittal.
That’s a silly comment AA. If the ALP were still in charge they would be doing exactly the same.
Your argument is valid in criticizing the LNP for rabbitting on about a “budget emergency” and then taking no action, but making dodgy analogies about regular financing does your argument no credit.
BC, CC, thanks.
If publishing the number of boat arrivals ‘helps people smugglers” (Morrison), then Scott has been working for them for the last few years.
[Phillip Hudson@PhillipMHudson3m
McEwen update: @RobMitchellMP has won by 336 votes – in today’s count of final votes his lead over Donna Petrovich slipped by 9 #Ausvotes]
No probs.
I think he did/arranged it but whether a Court can prove it beyond reasonable doubt is another matter.
Yes – the acquittal of Rayner which was handed down by WA’s Chief Justice with the appeal then conducted by NSW’s finest barristers before three judges, two from NSW and one from Victoria.
Very difficult to overturn an acquittal.
Fran
I don’t think it’s a sign of progress.
It was a fight between bullshit and loud bullshit. Loud bullshit won and is now busy so all we hear from is the other kind :P.
With regards to the borrowing – it’s goign to take a while to turn the ship around – Abbott made that very clear before the election.
As for all the angst about not reporting the arrivals – load of crud – the journos always knew beore the press releases from the ALP – and they still will – either through AMSA publicly available information or unoffical sources.
[How can a request for specific data be satisfied by the response that the data is “part of the Australian Drought Cycle”. That’s just a hand wave.]
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ninocomp.shtml
http://home.iprimus.com.au/foo7/droughthistory.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a
http://austhrutime.com/climate.htm
Do you need more?
Jackol:
[Your argument is valid in criticizing the LNP for rabbitting on about a “budget emergency” and then taking no action, but making dodgy analogies about regular financing does your argument no credit.]
Yes indeed. Just recently, I accepted a deal from Citibank to balance transfer nearly $10,000 worth of debt that would within 30 days start attracting 13.5% interest to 0% for 12 months (less a $49 annual fee). I use the money I would havfe serviced the former debt with to offset my mortgage instead (currently under 5%). Just before the 12 months expires,I will either take another low balance transfer offer or if that’s not available, clear the debt with the accumulated funds.
Debt is neither good nor bad per se. It’s what you do with the liquidity made available by the debt that counts.
Shellbell
Acquittal not a surprise to me. From the media reports it seemed like there was only circumstantial evidence at most.
Rayney judgment at 11.30am WA time.