Bordered to the north by the Murray River, the electorate of Indi covers an area of northern Victoria including Wangaratta, Benalla and the border town of Wodonga. It produced one of the biggest boilovers of the 2013 election with the defeat of cabinet minister-in-waiting Sophie Mirabella at the hands of conservative independent Cathy McGowan, whose win marked the first time since 1931 that the seat was not in the hands of one of the main coalition parties. Indi has existed without interruption since federation and only ever won by Labor in 1910, 1914, 1928 (when Labor’s Paul Jones was elected unopposed after Country Party incumbent Robert Cook forgot to nominate) and 1929, from which time it shifted decisively to the conservatives. It was thereafter fought over between the Country Party and the Liberal Party (together with its predecessor the United Australia Party), the member from 1937 to 1949 being Country Party titan John “Black Jack” McEwen, who moved to the new seat of Murray with the expansion of parliament in 1949. The Nationals last held the seat in 1977, when their incumbent Mac Holten was defeated by Liberal candidate Ewen Cameron on Labor preferences. The Nationals contested in 2001 when Cameron’s successor Lou Lieberman retired, but managed only 12.3%.
The new Liberal member in 2001 was Sophie Panopoulos, a barrister and Australians for Constititutional Monarchy activist. Panopoulos married in 2006 and assumed her husband’s surname of Mirabella. Mirabella became noted for her aggressive parliamentary style, and was promoted to shadow cabinet in the innovation, industry, science and research portfolio when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009. McGowan’s challenge to Mirabella arose out of a local activist group called Voice for Indi, which initially declared itself set on “improving the political process in the electorate” rather than mounting an electoral challenge. The group says it resolved to field a candidate after Mirabella gave their concerns short shrift, informing them that the real concerns of her constituents aligned with her party leader’s oft-repeated soundbites.
The candidate nominated by Voice for Indi was Cathy McGowan, a rural affairs consultant and former regional councillor for the Victorian Farmers Federation who had once worked for Liberal member Ewen Cameron. With McGowan to rally behind, the organisation proved adept at fund-raising and use of social media, and it soon became apparent that it was succeeding in tapping into a perception that Mirabella was a Melburnian careerist with an insufficient connection to the local area. McGowan’s profile was further lifted when retiring New England independent Tony Windsor told the ABC’s Insiders program that the “nasty” Mirabella was the person he would least miss in politics, and that McGowan was an “excellent independent” whose campaign he might lend support.
Also lending McGowan support was Ken Jasper, who served Wangaratta and surrounding areas in state parliament for 34 years, retiring as member for Murray Valley at the 2010 election. McGowan appeared to benefit from friction between the coalition parties spilling over from the contest for Mallee, which the Liberals were seeking to win upon the retirement of Nationals member John Forrest. Reports indicated that local Nationals had been quietly told they would not face disciplinary action if they lent support to McGowan.
McGowan went on to prevail after polling 31.2% to Mirabella’s 44.7%, which was down from 51.8% in 2010. This left McGowan well clear of the Labor candidate on 11.6%, down from 28.2%, and she was narrowly able to close the primary vote gap after picking up 79% of Labor and minor party preferences.
NB: Hat tip to Ben Raue at The Tally Room, whose Google Earth maps I’m using for the electoral boundaries displayed in the map above. Raue does tremendous work on his blog and deserves donations. Note also that you can get a slightly bigger image of the above map by clicking on it.
BC 1215
Now “not who came to dinner but what happened afterwards”
My mind boggles at that threesome 😀
DN
[I demand a better quality of troll. We deserve a better quality of troll.]
Unlikely I’m afraid. Those with the wit to approach your standard generally take their ideas seriously enough to prefer making a serious point than trolling. It’s my impression that trolls are, overwhelmingly, intellectually inept and lacking the capacity to be creative or lateral in their thinking.
That’s probably why so many of them are on the right. The right controls most of the public discourse and they can simply copy and paste their memes — knowing full well that the ubiquity of the meme and its obvious flaws is precisely what will draw the negative attention of anyone possessed of at least a modest intellect and the capacity to read and compose whole sentences.
[That’s probably why so many of them are on the right.]
I could take a fence to that Fran 🙁 but I won’t. 🙂
Fran – Your comment on Q&A is almost as long as the transcript.
😀
davidwh
Sane, polite, slightly misguided but hey, 2/3 ain’t bad!
Your on fire today Fran! Keep it up! 🙂
Thirteen seats swung to Labor at the election on 2PP with another (O’Connor, WA) having a primary vote swing to Labor (0.19). Some of the rural seats must’ve been from KAP/PUP preferences as the ALP primary was down
NSW
Fowler 8.15%
Greenway 2.67
Gilmore 2.0
Vic
Batman +3.1
Qld
Blair +1.0
Bowman 1.5
Groom 2.1
Hinkler 1.5
Maranoa 0.8
Moreton 0.5
Wide Bay 2.3
WA
Pearce 0.9
NT
Solomon +0.35
😀
Sean Tisme
Posted Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 12:13 pm | Permalink
People Smugglers clearly support the ALP position.
It’s been a real money earner for them… 50,000 illegals at $10,000 a pop, you do the maths.
==============================================
why can’t you?
Liberal, that explains why he is asking someone to do the maths for him.
Hockey can’t help
Fran, our enemy is ignorance. It is dangerous, and growing in numbers and confidence, even in cabinet.
Labor only had Conroy and Ludwig in Cabinet, but there is a smorgasboard of idiots in ministries now.
Nastie Me (AKA Sean) must very pleased to know that the might of the ADF is taking on leaky wooden boats full of unarmed men women and children.
Labor never got around to dealing with the problem of housing prices, being afraid to reform the negative gearing mess created by Costello’s change to capitla gains tax in 2000. New Zealand might have a good solution here though:
[New Zealand’s are taking the form of what bankers are calling a “10/80 rule,” whereby only 10 percent of new mortgages underwritten can have to loan-to-valuation ratios
of more than 80 percent.
The measures are designed to cap household debt as much as head off an asset bubble.]
http://www.theage.com.au/business/world-business/facing-a-housing-bubble-new-zealand-may-have-the-answer-20130924-2uaxj.html#ixzz2fmBzt7IT
1257
The Batman figure is 2CP not 2PP. It is ALP versus Green. It is because the Liberals switched their HTVs preference advice from the Greens to the ALP.
The 2PP figure for Batman has not been calculated yet.
AussieAchmed@1261
Bloody Kids
Operation Silent Borders has been criticised by a people smuggler:
[A people smuggler jailed in Indonesia has ridiculed Scott Morrison’s vow of silence about new asylum boat arrivals, saying the smuggling networks do not rely on Australian government press releases for their information.
“When the boat is being rescued and the passengers on board see the Australian authorities, they call the Hawaladar from their satellite phone. Then the smuggler gets the money,” Amiri said…
“This new policy can work only if the Abbott minister buys all the satellite phones in Indonesia (like they want to buy the scrap boats),” Amiri said.
“That’s a stupid policy. The politicians are wasting their time.”]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/people-smuggler-ridicules-scott-morrisons-silence-on-boat-arrivals-20130924-2ub2z.html#ixzz2fmCsf6uV
Morrison press conference
https://twitter.com/StanSteam2/status/382340906143072256/photo/1/large
C;mon Guys
Give Tony some love, in 12 days he is already the best PM we have had for the last 6 years, at least he had not been sacked by his own party, or the public or both in some cases.
NBN = No Boat News
Socrates, see my previous post
What did you think people smugglers would say?
If they turn around the boats, noone will want to employ our service of ferrying them from Indonesia to Indonesia, my piggy bank set up by the ALP would be ruined, I will be out of a job. I will have to sell my fleet of fishing boat at a great loss, and go look for a job in the ALP?
They are going to continue to encourage people to give them thousands for ferrying them from Indonesia to Indonesia
No achmed, here is the Morrison press conference. Scott is wearing white.
Peter Foster @CrPeterFoster 33m
Buswell calls for State income tax powers – The West Australian http://au.news.yahoo.com/local/wa/a/-/local/19078192/buswell-calls-for-state-income-tax-powers/ … via @thewest_com_au #WAPol
Bloody Liberal Govt – can’t control their spending and now want to bleed the voters dry
Socrates
Posted Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 1:24 pm | Permalink
No achmed, here is the Morrison press conference. Scott is wearing white.
——————————————
people always say turkeys go gobble gobble
Yesiree Bob
Posted Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 1:17 pm | Permalink
AussieAchmed@1261
Nastie Me (AKA Sean) must very pleased to know that the might of the ADF is taking on leaky wooden boats full of unarmed men women and children.
Bloody Kids
————————————————
Sean T?????????
Sabra Lane @SabraLane 6m
The Communications Minister @TurnbullMalcolm will outline the Govt’s ‘interim statement of expectations’ for the NBN at 2pm
dovif
Posted Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 1:21 pm | Permalink
C;mon Guys
Give Tony some love, in 12 days he is already the best PM we have had for the last 6 years, at least he had not been sacked by his own party, or the public or both in some cases.
————————————————–
Can’t find him to sack him!!!!
dovif
I criticised Labor when they screwed up, so I am certainly going to call it when the Liberals talk rubbish. Any policy that will not motivate either the Indonesians or the people smugglers to change their plans is doomed to failure.
Shop the Boats and Turn Back the Press Releases are both stupid policies, aimed at low information voters, designed by a nasty but stupid minister. Morrison is not an evil genius, he is just evil.
Back to work for me.
AussieAchmed@1273
[Buswell calls for State income tax powers – The West Australian http://au.news.yahoo.com/local/wa/a/-/local/19078192/buswell-calls-for-state-income-tax-powers/%5D
That option has been dead since the 1942 High Court case. Good luck with that Troy.
1278
It was ruled that the Commonwealth does have the power to effectively force the states not to tax income. There is no constitutional obstacle to any such barriers being removed.
The biggest surprises haven’t come from Tony Abbott and his ministers themselves, but rather from how quickly they have reignited the culture wars. Whatever the weary protests of those burnt out from the last round of conflict during the Howard era, the culture wars are unmistakably back.
Tony Abbott has re-started the culture wars. https://newmatilda.com/2013/09/24/abbott-has-got-culture-war-he-wanted …
In part, this is due to the amazingly ideological nature of the new government’s targets: senior public servants, scientists, climate change bodies, public health agencies, academic researchers and the board of the National Broadband Network. The score-settling has been open and unashamed.
—————————————————
Abbott and his crew behaving like spiteful little children
Socrates
I believe there will be some negotiation. I believe the cattle was a major reason why the boats came. I believe Indonesia can help stop them and it will probably involve money.
If they are not able to get to Australia, the Asylum seeker wont go to indonesia too.
What happened to the guy who resigned as WA Treasurer because he wanted to do Federal politics did he get in?
CTar1
Won the seat of Pearce.
poroti – Ta.
Seems LNP only has a mandate of 30,000 votes, and abbott would not be PM.
https://newmatilda.com/2013/09/24/thirty-thousand-votes-and-abbotts-gone
What happened to the guy who resigned as WA Treasurer because he wanted to do Federal politics did he get in?
==================================================
Porter got elected and will be sitting on the back benches
Is sitting on Tony’s backbench better than sitting on Colin’s Frontbench?
CTar1
Ambitious would be an understatement so look out current Lib leader hopefuls . Comes from Lib “royalty. Father was a W.A. state director and grandpappy at Ming’s request was one of the founders of the Qld Liberal party.
[Today’s Essential: Tony Abbott is preferred to Anthony Albanese as Prime Minister by 37% to 31% and to Bill Shorten by 37% to 32%.]
poroti/AA
Being on the Federal back bench is probably better than being WA Treasurer when you lose your AAA rating.
William used national polling to come up with a very close result so I think national polls are generally a good guide. With election results it doesn’t much matter how close things are providing you have the numbers to form government.
Wait till Joe loses AAA ratings.
[It’s my impression that Most PB posters are, overwhelmingly, intellectually inept and lacking the capacity to be creative or lateral in their thinking.]
Nice description.
lizzie@1289
So effectively the ALP contender vote was split two way. It will be interesting when there is an ALP leader to go head to head against Abbott.
RM
[Wait till Joe loses AAA ratings.]
I give him 2 or less budgets to do just that.
Geoff
What! You mean there is comething wrong with Incompetant ALP -> Good, Abbott is bad
Abbott is bad had been the Gillard motto for 3 years. What can go wrong?
IS THIS FOR REAL?! Abbott turning off the Christmas Island mobile phone tower to stop residents from contacting the mainland????!
[Geoff
What! You mean there is comething wrong with Incompetant ALP -> Good, Abbott is bad
Abbott is bad had been the Gillard motto for 3 years. What can go wrong?]
um what? Not sure what you are on about.
I find it funny however that people complain about trolls when PB is a troll pit already.
Anyone who stumbles in here is soon bundled up tied to a pole and spit roasted.
[@climatecouncil: In just 13 hours we’ve had 5,400 founding members donate $160,000! Thank you #peoplepower pic.twitter.com/CBa0s9H065 #auspol]
Geoff
um what? Not sure what you are on about.
I find it funny however that people complain about trolls when PB is a troll pit already.
—————————————————–
but they are OUR trolls 🙂
…. we are in OUR tent pissing out ….. and dont kindly take to Lib Trolls on the outside pissing in …..