Coalition 90, Labor 55, Others 5

House of Representatives numbers settled as Clive Palmer makes it over the line in Fairfax by 36 votes, pending a recount.

The AEC reports the count in Fairfax has ended with Clive Palmer 36 votes in front of Liberal National Party candidate Ted O’Brien. The scrutiny progress table still lists 107 pre-polls and seven postals as awaiting processing, but I guess these are the ones that have been “disallowed” (the numbers are about right in each case). Admitted to the count today were 304 pre-polls, which broke 178-126 to O’Brien, and 147 postals, which broke 85-62, in each case in line with the general trend of the pre-poll and postal count. That was only sufficient to chip 75 votes away from Palmer’s 111-vote margin from last night.

Assuming that result is not overturned on a recount, I would say this definitively settles the line-up of the new House of Representatives: 90 seats to the Coalition (58 Liberal, 22 Liberal National, nine Nationals and one Country Liberal), 55 to Labor, one each for the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party, and two independents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,044 comments on “Coalition 90, Labor 55, Others 5”

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  1. William Bowe@887

    Bemused, I happen to quite like Julia Gillard, but unfortunately she wasn’t particularly good at being prime minister. She was singularly lacking in the sense of what makes the ordinary voter tick that so distinguished the two genuinely successful prime ministers of my time, Bob Hawke and John Howard. As well as that, she was relentlessly undermined by Kevin Rudd and her supporters, and your determination to deny that fact borders on delusional.

    I have never doubted that Rudd and a sizeable minority of caucus greatly resented the events of June 2010 and the lead up to it when Rudd was ‘white-anted’. In such a climate there may well have been less than flattering comments made about Gillard either in front of members of the MSM to that got back to them. And there were undoubtedly such comments made about Rudd too. And Rudd was also subjected to the most vicious public attacks I can recall ever being made on an Australian MP by some of his colleagues.

    But I really do struggle to recall acts of blatant sabotage such as are alleged. OTOH, Gillard made numerous mistakes that just made her look bad. She just seemed accident prone. Was Rudd exercising mind control or something?

  2. I always enjoy it when Mr Bowe descends from the lofty heights to administer some much needed reality checks to some of the people who post on HIS blog. We are all privileged to be here.

  6. Psephos@861

    Dr Brendan Nelson is in fact the only Liberal Leader I have shaken hands with.

    Also true for me as it happens; I interviewed him for a student paper in 2002 or 03. He was very slick and smooth and well-spoken and amiable but one of his eyes had mannerisms all of its own, which made for a slightly odd impression.

  8. The reason for that was partly the plain fact that Labor was likely to lose fewer seats by putting Captain Queeg back in charge, and partly a result of their disappointment at the many examples of Gillard’s poor judgement, starting with the East Timor non-solution and ending with the knitting photo.

    It appears to me as an outsider that both Gillard and Rudd had poor management teams and advisors in complete contrast to the stage management of Abbott by Credlin and partner.

  9. [The knitting photo was the moment i was certain JG would be dumped as leader]

    And then McTernan has the cheek to write articles about how sad it was that nobody got to know the real Gillard. Well FMD! Whose fault was that, Jock, if not the fault of her communications director?

  10. victoria @ 905

    I agree.

    I cringed when I saw it.

    Who the hell was responsible for organising such a joke?

    Surely JG would have seen the damage it would do to her.

    I remember saying to my Gillard-loving neighbour “That’s it. She’s gone”.

  11. Do determine the impact of a Gillard run election would need to take into consideration and factor in the impact of the extent of Rudd, Hawker and Fitzgibbon. If these distractions were not there I am confident Gillard would have made a better case for reelection then Rudd did. When Gillard was given clear air and a chance to articulate her vision her vote went up. We will never know. But her government was far more impressive than the Rudd Ministry cobbled together in the last three months.

    I am looking forward to the Ann Summers – Gillard lectures on September 30 and October 1

  12. Abbott won votes and goodwill with his pledge to run a government of “no surprises, no excuses” but, in government, a qualification seems to have been added and that’s “no explanations”.

    ow.ly/23nLvM

  13. Oh there was another ABC News howler tonight with a claim that McEwen was the last seat remaining that had not been officially declared. In fact, 128 seats have not yet been declared!

  14. [Psephos
    ….Well FMD! Whose fault was that, Jock, if not the fault of her communications director?]

    The gift of writing the history goes to the winner, but the trouble is there is no clear winner in the Rudd vs. Gillard stoush and so both sides are going to spend the next year or so trying to write the story of the last 6 years….. IMO.

  15. [Mr Moderator, i respectfully submit that the simple existence of Sean Tisme and the intellectual “quality” of his posts should be taken to constitute “sufficient provocation”.]

    Which is pretty much the line I do actually take with him.

  16. Mod lib ‘You say you saw it 100 times, I think I may have seen it twice and I watch a lot of news……do you think it might be you?’

    Not me. Just search for ‘Gillard trip India’ to get an idea of the coverage and compare it to a similar google search for Abbott’s slip.

    I accept that you may watch a lot of news, but I think your memory has let you down. Very convenient for you..

  17. The gift of writing the history goes to the winner, but the trouble is there is no clear winner in the Rudd vs. Gillard stoush and so both sides are going to spend the next year or so trying to write the story of the last 6 years….. IMO.

    and no doubt a television series – perhaps Rats in the Ranks II.

  18. Given the ALP is winning Absent, Provisional, and Pre-poll voting in McEwen so far, and that these types of declaration votes are three quarters of what is left, and that they are only just behind in Postals, I don’t think there is much doubt that the ALP will win McEwen any more!

  19. PeeBee

    It is quite possible I did see it many times and paid not attention to it as no attention should be paid to it….you are right. However, if you think this is a strong case for media bias being the cause of the recent Abbott landslide win you are seriously misguided!

  21. KB,

    That merely proves Operation Soclvereign Borders is working. The truth got sent back from whence it came, i.e. anything other than Australian political reporting.

  23. victoria@905

    Psephos

    The knitting photo was the moment i was certain JG would be dumped as leader

    I thought the ‘At Home With Julia’ series was pretty devastating and should never have been made and once made should not have gone to air.

    How can the national broadcaster justify making such a production that completely strips the PM of dignity? And I don’t care who the Prime Minister was.

    Heads should have rolled.

  25. Mod Lib@918

    Given the ALP is winning Absent, Provisional, and Pre-poll voting in McEwen so far, and that these types of declaration votes are three quarters of what is left, and that they are only just behind in Postals, I don’t think there is much doubt that the ALP will win McEwen any more!

    I don’t think anyone much doubts Labor has retained it. But the story was not a bad item apart from the ridiculous claim at the start. They probably meant to say it was the last unresolved seat, but Fairfax isn’t really unresolved; the recount might in theory reverse it.

  28. The other day the ABC newsreader claimed the Fairfax count was the closest election result in Australian history which wasn’t right either!

  30. [Yes, where is the Four Corners “No, this is what REALLY happened in the ALP” post-election story?????]

    It’s coming. They were doing interviews for it several months ago.

  31. 923

    Such things have to be done in an evenhanded manner. They should make an “At Home with Tony” series. There should be plenty to work with.

  33. Abbott did not win government teh ALP lost it, Its divisions did little to instill confidence. There were many vpters who said they could not support Kevin but also did not want to see Tony Abbott elected. Look at the Senate vote., PUP and Xen and micro parties were the beneficiary of the divisions The Green vote halved Most people had switched off long ago at the circus, only the political junkies were following the events that unfolded.

  35. Heads should have rolled.

    Agree entirely. The ABC demeaned the office of the Prime Minister. Is the ABC going to produce equivalent At Home with Tony and Margie?

  36. Mod lib, nice deflection to a different argument.

    I don’t think it is misguided to think that bias plays a part in the political outcome, otherwise why would Rupert waste millions of dollars a year on The Australian?

    I am surprised that you would even suggest otherwise.

  39. Well, 4C did the half-baked one a while back, but given it was pre-election there was no way anyone in the ALP was going to be frank about anything, so that was all a bit pointless.

    And they can’t really do another 4C on it so soon.

    And yes, as I understood it, that was the explanation for where Uhlmann has gone … to do a miniseries or somesuch on the 6 years of ALP rule, so I imagine if there is going to be any great expose or revelation it will be reserved for that.

  40. [bemused
    …….How can the national broadcaster justify making such a production that completely strips the PM of dignity? And I don’t care who the Prime Minister was.

    Heads should have rolled.]

    Ahem….Rubbery figures???? Anthony Ackroyd as Kevin Rudd??? That political comedy hit of the 1980s the name of which is escaping me but where they mocked Hawkie mercilessly?????

    …not to mention Hollowmen and the Chaser!

  41. [I am confident Gillard would have made a better case for reelection then Rudd did.]

    Have to wonder what alternate reality you are in.

    Truly amazing….Gillard after three years in the chair was going to take Labor to a record defeat..because of Rudd. That anybody could believe this is pretty sad.

    The public pretty much hated her, so much so they were willing to swallow Abbott to not have her…that is how much they wanted her gone…to the tune of Labor 40 or fewer seat.

    Rudd or anybody else for that matter were only a leadership issue BECAUSE she was totally failing as a leader. Without Rudd you would be looking at shorten, smith, Albo or others as possible replacements…and they would have been and probably WOULD have replaced her earlier.

    The only reason they took so long to restore Rudd was because of the factional stuff up that created the issue in the first place and to protect their on going factional power system. AS it was the loss was going to be so biblical that they HAD to bring Rudd back else the Coalition would have been sitting pretty in the Senate.

    The most likely happening if Gillard remained, given the Murdoch over drive hate of Labor during the election period is that 40 seats would have been the best case scenario for her.

  42. Jackol:

    Yes, I read somewhere that Uhlmann has been taken off 730 to make that documentary.

    I can only imagine what it will be like.

  43. Scarpat@935

    Heads should have rolled.

    Agree entirely. The ABC demeaned the office of the Prime Minister. Is the ABC going to produce equivalent At Home with Tony and Margie?

    I would not advocate the ABC stooping so low ever again.

  44. I feel like there is almost nothing left for a 4C type show anyway really…..everyone knows everyone in the ALP hates everyone else in the ALP because they have already told us in public!

    ….what big revelation could a 4C provide?*

    *the most shocking one would be if two people in the ALP caucus actually said they liked each other, but Albo and Shorten are already playing this tune so that wouldn’t work either!

  46. *the most shocking one would be if two people in the ALP caucus actually said they liked each other

    the enemy of my enemy is my enemy…

  48. [….what big revelation could a 4C provide?*]

    Well they could give Gillard’s side of the story, but Anne Summers got that one.

  49. [There were many vpters who said they could not support Kevin but also did not want to see Tony Abbott elected. ]

    The fact of the matter either rightly or wrongly the public simply hated Gillard for way she came to power (with no reason and without the public actualy wanting Rudd gone)…to the public she lacked legitimacey, proper authority and was simply disliked for perceived dishonesty. NO matter the reality make this true or not.

    Gillard Labor was doomed through the manner of their making, there was no repairing, only a further sinking as they saw more of her and understood how she came to be. If she held the 2010 election a week or two later Labor would have lost. She was sinking fast.

    Jesus…the stabbed a first term PM, Labor’s first for ages, in the back for fuck all reason. You wonder why the public didn’t like Gillard.

  50. [NDIS, Carbon Pricing and a good job managing the economy and good management through the GFC.]

    Can we cut the “Carbon Price” Bullcrap… Rudd has admitted it was a Carbon Tax and told us he would scrap Gillards Carbon Tax if he was elected

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