Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

The new government has its first poll, sort of. Also featured: an overview of in-doubt seats from the real election, of which I count four (two House, two Senate).

The new government’s first opinion poll is testament either to a striking weakness in its honeymoon effect, the fact that it’s only partly a post-election poll, or the observed tendency towards constancy in results from the pollster in question. That pollster is Essential Research, and its poll is its routine fortnightly average of federal voting intention conducted online from samples of about 1000 respondents each week. The latest result was thus half-conducted over the period of the election itself, such that one might dispute its provenance as a post-election poll (which you can pile on top of general doubts about the value of any polling conducted immediately after a change of government). For what it’s worth, the poll has the Coalition on 44% of the primary vote (45.7% at the election on current figures), Labor on 36% (33.5%) and the Greens on 9% (8.4%). The published 53-47 two-party preferred (the current election result being 53.4-46.6) is weaker for Labor than the primary vote shifts suggest it should be, which may be because they are still using preference allocations from the 2010 election.

Further questions, which unlike voting intention were derived from this week’s sample only, have 38% rating the election of micro-parties to the Senate as “good for democracy” against 25% for bad, although I’d like to see more specific questions in relation to this topic. Forty-four per cent believe the lack of a Coalition Senate majority will make for better government against 30% for worse. Respondents were asked about various aspects they might expect to get better or worse under the new government, including the surprising finding that cost of living and interest rates are expected to be worse. A finding on the state of the economy is an instructive insight into the influence of partisan considerations on such polling. Overall, 40% describe the state of the economy as good and 25% as poor, compared with 36% and 30% when the question was last asked in mid-July. Tellingly, the good rating among Coalition voters is up 14 points to 32% while poor is down ten points to 35%, while Labor voters are down nine points on good to 50% and up four points on poor to 18%.

As to proper election results, this site continues to follow close counts in dedicated posts as linked to on the sidebar. As far as I’m concerned, there are four seats which are still in serious doubt – two in the House, and two in the Senate. The 1550 votes in Indi are too few to reverse Sophie Mirabella’s 405-vote deficit against Cathy McGowan, while the 849-vote lead of Labor’s Julie Owens in Parramatta is enough to withstand anything the outstanding 3258 votes might conceivably throw at it. That leaves:

Fairfax. Continuing an ongoing trend, Clive Palmer’s lead shrank yesterday from 502 to 362. This resulted from a heavy flow of postals against him (758-465) being greater than an advantage on absents (722-569 in his favour on yesterday’s batch), both of which reflect the earlier trend of postal and absent counting. The number of outstanding absents and postals has diminished to around 1000 each, which leaves the ball in the court of about 2500 outstanding pre-polls, which have so far gone nearly 57-43 against Palmer. If all existing trends continue over the remainder of the count, Palmer will land a few dozen votes short. He will then perhaps take the matter to the Court of Disputed Returns, his current Federal Court injunction to have counting stopped presumably being doomed to failure. Palmer has been invoking an anomaly in the count, much remarked upon on this site, in which the Coolum Beach pre-poll voting centre result had a more-than-plausible number of votes for LNP candidate Ted O’Brien and a mismatch with the number of votes recorded for House and Senate. However, much as Palmer might wish to invoke a ballot box-stuffing operation at once brilliantly efficient in execution and bone-headedly stupid in conception, the AEC’s explanation that the Coolum Beach and Nambour PPVC results had been entered the wrong way around is likely to stand up in court. It is a duly troubling prospect that Palmer’s Senate representatives may emerge as important players in the looming round of electoral reform.

McEwen. After late counting initially flowed heavily against him, Labor member Rob Mitchell has rallied with a strong performance on absents and late-arriving postals. He now leads by 192 votes, which will widen if the tide continues to flow his way. However, it remains to be seen what as many as 5000 pre-polls hold in store. The first batch favoured Mitchell 497-458, but the remainder might come from less favourable areas.

Western Australian Senate. The most excellent Senate modelling of PB regular Truth Seeker illustrates the delicate balance of the count here, and the stars that need to remain aligned if Wayne Dropulich of the Australian Sports Party is indeed to find his way to the Senate off 0.2% of the vote. Key to the outcome is Dropulich remaining ahead of the Rise Up Australia party after distribution of preferences from Australian Voice, after which his snowball builds all the way to a quota. This might yet be undone by a gentle trend towards RUA on late counting, together with the unknown quantity of below-the-line votes. Should Dropulich fall short, not only will his own seat instead go to Zhenya Wong of the Palmer United Party, but the complexion of the race for the final seat between Scott Ludlam of the Greens and Labor’s Louise Pratt will change. This is because the comfortable win presently projected for Ludlam is achieved off Palmer preferences, which won’t be available to him if the votes are used to elect Wong. Truth Seeker’s projection is that Pratt will “almost certainly” defeat Ludlam on a scenario in which Wong is elected.

Tasmanian Senate. The issue here can be neatly observed on the ABC results calculator, the crucible of the outcome being the second last count (Count 24). Here the calculator, which treats all votes as below-the-line, has the Liberal Democrats leading Palmer United Party candidate Jacqui Lambie by 29,705 votes to 28,608. Since Palmer preferences favour the Liberals over the Liberal Democrats, their candidate’s exclusion then delivers victory to the third Liberal, Sally Chandler. However, if that gap of 1097 should close, the Liberal Democrats will be excluded instead, and most of the votes then distributed will flow to Lambie and secure election for another PUP Senator. The size of the gap might make that appear unlikely, but Tasmania has an unusually high rate of below-the-line voting, and one might surmise that it will favour the greatly more visible PUP over the Liberal Democrats. UPDATE: Looks like I wasn’t taking the Sex Party challenge with due seriousness – they win the last seat that might otherwise go to Liberal or the Palmer United Party if they stay ahead of Labor at Count 21, as they get Palmer preferences ahead of the Liberals. The current count has them doing this by the grand total of 14,275 to 14,274.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,075 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 22
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  3. Posted Tuesday, September 17, 2013 at 9:10 am | Permalink
    I am waiting for the current Chief Scientist, Prof. ian Chubb to come out swinging. I know from personal experience that he does not suffer fools gladly.
    BK

    I saw him on NPC just before the elecgtion, saying we had to get more involved I think stem cell I said to myself your ar joking abbotts religions will will decide what science roads are taking never thinking he would go this far, is it about global warming or creationism or both
    how must the scientist feel ,same level as the age carers feel

    same level as most woman now feel

    he may think he is very clever with this,, lets see

    don’t think so ,

    we just have to get some bad money policies and job loses and the Interlectual snobs re science and other forms of science
    the bogans with out money back and that’s the 3 percent we need for 2016 no scandals the media can dredge up I feel there is not much for them to say now, this morning on there talk back something about tim and car use I read on twitter,

    but the media, who knows ,, Fairfax seem to have got more balanced hope social media does not get bored I think that will ebb and flow according to the new s of the day

    ==============================================

  4. I think it’s a little harsh to say that Bishop is a failed FM the day before she is sworn in.
    —————————————————-

    As FM-elect she has failed.

  5. The late, great, Fred Daly was one of those politicians who could form friendships across the political divide. His sense of humor endeared him to all (remember his retort that the Country Party only had two policies: one for people and one for sheep!). Outside Parliament he was a great mate of Jim Killen. Inside Parliament they were the best of enemies!!

  6. Yes Lizzie …on “with respect” … one might add also “I’ll be honest with you …” I knew a real estate agent who used that phrase on average at least once per minute. It was hard not to smile. After about the sixth iteration I eventually asked — so should I disregard each of the last five allegedly honest observations?

    On another matter:

    [Russian man shot in quarrel over Kant’s philosophy ]

    Like meher baba, I see this is a rather good story. The stereotype of Russians is of vodka-swilling racist louts. I love the idea of being in a country where the categorical imperative entails shooting someone on a philosophical point.

    I suspect the matter was far more prosaic in practice, but it is an uplifting thought. 😉

  7. the C team

    is bought to you by the ( some media} don’t ever lose sight of that one

    I doubt our lady ministers played to an audience I think what u see is what u get.

    j bishop well sorry I don’t see what u see outsider

  9. I have a feeling Taliban Tony just gave the ALP a big free kick on the ministry.

    This shit just won’t wash in 2013. I wonder how long it will take the LNP to work that out?

  10. I doubt Fred Daly ever met Barnaby Joyce, but he must have had him in mind with his sheep joke!! Fred was a devout Catholic so maybe he was being guided by spiritual forces in foreseeing the future of the National Party c2013. Nothing much has changed!!!!

  12. melmcveigh 1h
    so proud AUS is now such a progressive country – NOT! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-politics/10313055/Why-some-Australian-women-loathe-Tony-Abbott-especially-now.html … Apparently Afghanistan has more women in cabinet than AUS.
    …………

    Retweeted by Van Badham
    View summary
    =======================================================
    you have to wonder = how lib men found wives and partners

    with their attitudes to woman

  13. ‘ What are her attributes that confer merit in the Liberal Party? ‘

    All the blokes think they might be a chance at getting a bit of that ol’ thing….probably?

    Can’t imagine why. Such an ‘orrible ol boiler.

    Still,I bet she’s happy she doesn’t have to share the party room with a Kate Ellis….she’d have to tighten up a bit and get that little mince of hers perkier…..

  15. yes the taliban

    they blow up and icon
    ============================================================================================
    tony want to take tas heritage listing away

  16. Julie Bishop’s performance as shadow did nothing to recommend her as competent to run the FA ministry. Perhaps she will grow in the job, but I will be surprised if she does.

    As to whether she was appointed “on merit” this is a more complex question. There isn’t a great deal of merit in the coalition, so “merit” in this case is relative. Bishop may well be in the top 10 people on that side of the parliament, while being nevertheless, a mediocrity.

    It also seems to me that in as much as perceptions by the public form part of the confidence people have that their government is “of the people” there are arguments for ensuring that there is a balance in the parliament and in the cabinet that to some extent reflects the population as a whole. If JB were not in the cabinet and not replaced by another female, then this standard would have been failed even more blatantly. So simply being female would in this context constitute merit. In a position interview it would come under “desirable”. It wouldn’t outweigh more pressing attributes, but in a thin pool where one must appoint and can’t readvertise? Yes.

  17. It’s been great reading sensible posts by all posters here this morning without the smatarse comments from those who seek to turn this blog into a gotchas paradise. I just hope the standard hold up.

  18. rosemour

    yuk what

    well ive got a lot to do

    and slowly getting over my depression

    but not my passion to rid us of this lot next election

    stay on message yes I agree with outsider

    re what ever can never spell that word

    its the job they do as ministers we should be looking at

  19. sadly gary

    libs play gotchas every day

    tony has with the science portfolio and one lady in mins

    in fact if she was a real trooper

    for woman she would say stick your job tony

    I certainly would

  20. My Say. It’s up to us all to fight the good fight. Live by our values. The Abbott experiment with ruthless politicization may well end in tears. He has a weak Ministry and is constrained by some awful policies. Lets hope our new Labor leader will take up the fight to him every day. Supported by a team of loyal, committed and hard working shadow ministry and back bench members. Every day, this mob have to be held accountable – for their meanness, lack of vision, and the general incompetency that will plague this government for its term. Is it doable in 3 years? You bet!

    People like Zoomster should be an inspiration to us all. Doggedly fight the good fight.

  21. Fran Barlow

    In a popular series of Russian comedy films one of the main characters was a forest ranger and a devotee of Zen Buddhism. His observations during the movie from that angle provided a number of funny moments.

  23. It could also be pointed out that Bishop isn’t in Abbott’s Cabinet due to his personal choice. She’s there as elected deputy of the party and gets to choose her own portfolio.

  24. Some months from now the Token Woman in cabinet is not likely to rate much interest.

    However, the real issue is how clever is the politics?

    There are probably half-a-dozen plausible reasons (excuses) the conservatives can trot out, from Abbott’s ‘disappointing’ – whatever that is supposed to mean, to the fact that there are just no other able women in the government. It might just be true.

    However, just as Roxon and WA Senator Evans was it? decided to announce their retirements at around the same time, and just as PMJG was seeking to pull Labor together, the politics looked bad, bad.

    PMJG had to pretend she did not know about these potential loses to her side, or she did know and “respected these decisions” and so on. No matter, it looked a little like the rats jumping ship.

    It was the bad politics which became the topic for the conservatives.

    The same applies to this cabinet selection by Abbott.

    Given that the Murdoch press hacks keep telling us how much more clever the conservatives are at the game of politics, this whole fiasco gives a total lie to their belief.

    The West’s editorial this morning tried to make light of it by trotting out the “good” reasons why there are not more women, but the damage is to be seen and heard elsewhere.

    That such a stupid arrangement could be made by such “good” political operators only served to confirm every malevolent thought that many have to Abbott.

    All that trotting out of the ‘hot daughters’ (vote for my dad) the loving wife routine and the ‘sex appeal’ of one of the candidates, all so carefully orchestrated and trashed in one act.

  25. tricot

    Indeed trashed in one act. Which begs the question, does this mean that Abbott is merely a figurehead, and has no real authority?

  26. AA
    [But the comment, I think it was “X” that booths be electronically linked so that a person can’t go to another booth has merit, and also the idea that ID should be shown.

    Someone tweeted “need ID to get in a club but not to vote” ]

    They have the crossed-off names and addresses from all the booths, so any evidence of multiple voting is there. On ID, if you pretend to be someone else then that person should be picked up as being a multiple voter, and then it can be checked out.

    Although the system has holes, I don’t see a great need to change it unless there is evidence of fraud to a significant degree. ID checks and electronically connecting booths would slow down and complicate what seems to be a simple system that works well. It doesn’t need to be perfect. It just has to work.

  30. Vote gap between ALP/Sex in Tasmania slowly closing on ABC calculator. Now only 69 votes in it. Must be a joke there somewhere.

    (insert proviso re BTL votes)

  33. A lot of the things Abbott said or did while in opposition were never intended to last past the election. It’s not by accident they’re being discarded.

  35. [Natalie Kotsios ‏@NatalieKotsios 2m
    AEC’s Steve Kennedy says 415 votes to be counted today, another 457 have arrived from interstate 1/2 #indivotes #AusPol

    Natalie Kotsios ‏@NatalieKotsios 1m
    2/2 – These 457 votes will be processed today, ready for counting tomorrow… #indivotes #AusPol ]

    Why not count them today? On election night they count 75% of all the votes. After that they go into slow-motion mode.

  36. triton

    yes, often the methods used to deter fraud are worse than the cure.

    Any Centrelink recipient knows of the endless hoops you have to jump through in order to qualify for assistance – all in the name of preventing the odd fraud. It’s likely any CBA would discover that the extra time spent in excessive due diligence far outweighs the risk.

    The ALP now has so many measures in place to stop branch staking that it’s almost impossible to open a new branch and new members can find themselves held up for years when they’ve innocently tried to join a ‘suspect’ branch.

    “Newsroom” had an episode dealing with the impact of changes there to deter voter fraud. Hundreds of thousands of voters were being disendorsed to prevent a couple of hundred fraudulent votes …strangely enough, the kind of person who lost their voting rights were those more likely to vote Democrat than Republican!

    Sometimes cures are worse than diseases.

  38. Outsider

    Julie Bishop worked with my father in a law firm. He said he can barely remember anything about her so she wasn’t especially unusual.

  39. [ Yes,well done zoomster.

    I dare say McGowan wouldnt have made it without you chipping away there over successive elections.]

    I’ll second that. It’s testimony that we can all make a difference.

  44. “@KJBar: Liberal MP @DennisJensenMP says he is confused about the Govt’s absorption of the science portfolio. Says it is “schizophrenic” @abcnews24”

  45. Dio. Junior solicitors rarely are! However a large firm like Clayton Utz appoints people to senior management positions on merit. That’s what she did pre-politics. She must have shined later!!

  47. z

    [One of my favorite Chinese proverbs is “Sit on the banks of the river long enough and the bodies of all your enemies float by.”]

    Not if you use enough concrete.

  48. Indeed. In my experience, the junior solicitors who stand out generally do so for all the wrong reasons! The year 1 superstars are often the year 5 duds. And it’s often the case that those who end up being most successful are the ones who barely noticed initially, but have the capacity to think, and who tend to shine later. I’ve been in the game for 30 years. Most of the memorable ones are for all the wrong reasons!!

  49. I don’t think it can now be seriously argued that Abbott is not sexist. There has already been plenty of evidence to demonstrate that he is …and his quotes to that effect are easily ‘Googled’..

    But the sexism seems to run much deeper than that in the Liberal party …and we now know that it starts at the pre-selection level …and then runs throughout the career pathway from that point..

    Josh Freydenburg and one other male Lib MP (? name)started their parliamentary careers at approx the same time as Kelly O’Dwyer …they are in, but she is out. Although I can’t stand O’Dwyer, I think she would be justified in feeling discriminated against on the basis of gender..

    So, it seems to me that there is systemic sexism within the Liberal party …that will dog them throughout their one term in office, and will bite them on their male dominated bums come election 2016…

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