The new government’s first opinion poll is testament either to a striking weakness in its honeymoon effect, the fact that it’s only partly a post-election poll, or the observed tendency towards constancy in results from the pollster in question. That pollster is Essential Research, and its poll is its routine fortnightly average of federal voting intention conducted online from samples of about 1000 respondents each week. The latest result was thus half-conducted over the period of the election itself, such that one might dispute its provenance as a post-election poll (which you can pile on top of general doubts about the value of any polling conducted immediately after a change of government). For what it’s worth, the poll has the Coalition on 44% of the primary vote (45.7% at the election on current figures), Labor on 36% (33.5%) and the Greens on 9% (8.4%). The published 53-47 two-party preferred (the current election result being 53.4-46.6) is weaker for Labor than the primary vote shifts suggest it should be, which may be because they are still using preference allocations from the 2010 election.
Further questions, which unlike voting intention were derived from this week’s sample only, have 38% rating the election of micro-parties to the Senate as “good for democracy” against 25% for bad, although I’d like to see more specific questions in relation to this topic. Forty-four per cent believe the lack of a Coalition Senate majority will make for better government against 30% for worse. Respondents were asked about various aspects they might expect to get better or worse under the new government, including the surprising finding that cost of living and interest rates are expected to be worse. A finding on the state of the economy is an instructive insight into the influence of partisan considerations on such polling. Overall, 40% describe the state of the economy as good and 25% as poor, compared with 36% and 30% when the question was last asked in mid-July. Tellingly, the good rating among Coalition voters is up 14 points to 32% while poor is down ten points to 35%, while Labor voters are down nine points on good to 50% and up four points on poor to 18%.
As to proper election results, this site continues to follow close counts in dedicated posts as linked to on the sidebar. As far as I’m concerned, there are four seats which are still in serious doubt – two in the House, and two in the Senate. The 1550 votes in Indi are too few to reverse Sophie Mirabella’s 405-vote deficit against Cathy McGowan, while the 849-vote lead of Labor’s Julie Owens in Parramatta is enough to withstand anything the outstanding 3258 votes might conceivably throw at it. That leaves:
Fairfax. Continuing an ongoing trend, Clive Palmer’s lead shrank yesterday from 502 to 362. This resulted from a heavy flow of postals against him (758-465) being greater than an advantage on absents (722-569 in his favour on yesterday’s batch), both of which reflect the earlier trend of postal and absent counting. The number of outstanding absents and postals has diminished to around 1000 each, which leaves the ball in the court of about 2500 outstanding pre-polls, which have so far gone nearly 57-43 against Palmer. If all existing trends continue over the remainder of the count, Palmer will land a few dozen votes short. He will then perhaps take the matter to the Court of Disputed Returns, his current Federal Court injunction to have counting stopped presumably being doomed to failure. Palmer has been invoking an anomaly in the count, much remarked upon on this site, in which the Coolum Beach pre-poll voting centre result had a more-than-plausible number of votes for LNP candidate Ted O’Brien and a mismatch with the number of votes recorded for House and Senate. However, much as Palmer might wish to invoke a ballot box-stuffing operation at once brilliantly efficient in execution and bone-headedly stupid in conception, the AEC’s explanation that the Coolum Beach and Nambour PPVC results had been entered the wrong way around is likely to stand up in court. It is a duly troubling prospect that Palmer’s Senate representatives may emerge as important players in the looming round of electoral reform.
McEwen. After late counting initially flowed heavily against him, Labor member Rob Mitchell has rallied with a strong performance on absents and late-arriving postals. He now leads by 192 votes, which will widen if the tide continues to flow his way. However, it remains to be seen what as many as 5000 pre-polls hold in store. The first batch favoured Mitchell 497-458, but the remainder might come from less favourable areas.
Western Australian Senate. The most excellent Senate modelling of PB regular Truth Seeker illustrates the delicate balance of the count here, and the stars that need to remain aligned if Wayne Dropulich of the Australian Sports Party is indeed to find his way to the Senate off 0.2% of the vote. Key to the outcome is Dropulich remaining ahead of the Rise Up Australia party after distribution of preferences from Australian Voice, after which his snowball builds all the way to a quota. This might yet be undone by a gentle trend towards RUA on late counting, together with the unknown quantity of below-the-line votes. Should Dropulich fall short, not only will his own seat instead go to Zhenya Wong of the Palmer United Party, but the complexion of the race for the final seat between Scott Ludlam of the Greens and Labor’s Louise Pratt will change. This is because the comfortable win presently projected for Ludlam is achieved off Palmer preferences, which won’t be available to him if the votes are used to elect Wong. Truth Seeker’s projection is that Pratt will “almost certainly” defeat Ludlam on a scenario in which Wong is elected.
Tasmanian Senate. The issue here can be neatly observed on the ABC results calculator, the crucible of the outcome being the second last count (Count 24). Here the calculator, which treats all votes as below-the-line, has the Liberal Democrats leading Palmer United Party candidate Jacqui Lambie by 29,705 votes to 28,608. Since Palmer preferences favour the Liberals over the Liberal Democrats, their candidate’s exclusion then delivers victory to the third Liberal, Sally Chandler. However, if that gap of 1097 should close, the Liberal Democrats will be excluded instead, and most of the votes then distributed will flow to Lambie and secure election for another PUP Senator. The size of the gap might make that appear unlikely, but Tasmania has an unusually high rate of below-the-line voting, and one might surmise that it will favour the greatly more visible PUP over the Liberal Democrats. UPDATE: Looks like I wasn’t taking the Sex Party challenge with due seriousness – they win the last seat that might otherwise go to Liberal or the Palmer United Party if they stay ahead of Labor at Count 21, as they get Palmer preferences ahead of the Liberals. The current count has them doing this by the grand total of 14,275 to 14,274.
zoomster:
If I haven’t already done so, congratulations on getting Indi to marginal seat status. While McGowan may have been the challenger to tip out the sitting member, you deserve much of the credit for whittling away her large margin over the years.
[Julie Bishop is a – what’s the expression for a woman who has accepted all male standards and attitudes towards her own sex?]
Stockholm Syndrome?
confessions
🙂 🙂 No. 🙂
lizzie
My daughters are not so sure that JBishop is actually a woman. 😀
Re Julie Bishop. For what it’s worth.
I only ever had 1 personal encounter with her and found her to be warm, humorous and engaging.
She was managing partner of the Clayton Utz Perth office – leadership roles in firms such as that are extraordinarily challenging.
She has adopted a political persona which is at odds with her real life personality (one of my cousins, much to the chagrin of my dyed in the wool Labor voting uncle) has had extensive contact with her, and thinks the world of her, as a person. She is smart, witty and very intelligent, or so I am assured.
I am appalled by her performance in her FA role in opposition, especially with regard to Indonesia. That’s a different matter.
But a lot of the personal attacks on her that have appeared here, especially in the past few days, are essentially misogynistic. What we should be attacking her for is her failures in her job, of which there are many to choose from.
victoria
I know exactly what they mean. 😉
“What are her attributes that confer merit in the Liberal Party? Hmmm!”
JBishop is a “good, loyal girl”!
Outsider
I am judging JBishop on her public persona. What other measure is there for the majority of Australians. Her conduct relating to Indonesia has been simply appalling
Peter Reith is the absolute benchmark for slimeball grubs.
To be frank, the laughing fool could not lie straight in bed.
I think though, that Cormann might give Reith a run for his money within a year or two.
Time will tell
[Mike Kelly
Well I said TA was yesterday’s man who would lead us back to the 50s. His ministry speaks volumes in proving that point.]
Victoria. On that I absolutely agree. It’s a shame that so many politicians adopt public personas at odds with their real life personalities. Julia Gillard definitely suffered from that. So too (in my experience) did Paul Keating. The “real Julia” and the “real Paul” were so much more like able in person than the public ever could see. It seems to be a fact of life in politics, and the world of the tv prism.
I have 2 points that I was trying to articulate.
One, don’t assume Julie Bishop is some kind of dumb, brainless, bottle blonde fairy floss, in Cabinet to make up the numbers. That’s misogyny in my book. She is there on her merits.
Two, judge her by her performance (a clear fail in my book)
Outsider
I dont think JBishop is dumb at all. She does nasty really well and again her handling of our relationship with Indonesia gets a big fail from me. Her latest comments have not alleviated my concerns one iota.
It is going to be a long three years.
When I reflect, i get so mad with the Labor Party. They stuffed up on so many levels. How did they allow the C team in to run this country
Oh and another thing, I have not forgotten JBishop’s conduct during the G Blewitt AWU Saga. How she managed to get away with this total lapse in behavioural standards is also beyond me
Cormann and Joyce will make for interesting ministerial viewing sonsidereing that their starting position is being unhinged. God help those unfortunate public service people who will be working for them. After the pogrom, that is.
Outsider
alas, one thing ‘extensive experience as a candidate’ means is that I’ve never set foot in a booth after 6 pm on election day.
You do hear stories of votes being misallocated, but more in the small country booths – my fav being the scrutineer who asked the AEC official why he was putting a bunch of clearly Labor votes in the Nat pile being told, “I know these people, and that’s how they would have intended to vote.”
I don’t think the full time AEC officials would be so cavalier, however!
[And it seems we have a gun-supporting senator now?
Imagine if all the pollies carried guns into QT]
issue them with rubber bullets or paintballs
…could be amusing
interesting read – and about spot on I reckon. I can’t see either Albo or shorten ever choosing to work with the Greens. shorten because he is essentially anti-environment (sees the future economy of Australia built on mining and unsustainable resource exploitation. I predict labor will cave in the carbon price and super profits tax under him, and would essentially shadow/govern as abbott-lite, which is why he will get the murdoch media’s, business groups and mining sector financial support in coming weeks), and albo because his own seat is threatened by the greens. Albo is the best chance of winning back the Greens voters and would but an alternative vision to abbott on the future of the country, which is why the murdoch media will smear him in coming weeks. anybody want to wager that shorten does not gets support from the Big End of town in coming weeks?
BK
With each passing day, the stomach churns at the reality of just exactly who is in charge now.
The thought of Cormann, Joyce, Pyne, Brough, Abetz, Brandis et al is doing my head in
From Bernard Keane
The economy may well need some additional fiscal support in coming months. Hockey has already flagged the Coalition will not be aggressively cutting spending to return quickly to surplus and flagged that if stimulus is necessary, monetary policy is near the end of its capacity to provide it. That is, Hockey is going about the task of managing the economy sensibly.
Too bad that when Labor did the same, he could do nothing but attack it. Labor has every right to repay him in kind.
Yes vic, it’s going to be quite a ride!
Ooops – here’s the link I meant to put in my last post
http://theconversation.com/with-friends-like-these-labor-hatred-of-the-greens-is-self-defeating-18230?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+17+September+2013&utm_content=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+17+September+2013+CID_ba63d1c330064812b993778bd0ac6da8&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=With%20friends%20like%20these%20Labor%20hatred%20of%20the%20Greens%20is%20self-defeating
spot on I think
Victoria. Agreed on both counts. She’s smart and a very tough political operator. That’s why she is a senior Cabinet member.
If I have a very genuine concern about her, it is the narrowness of her background. Commercial lawyers don’t usually take a very nuanced view of the world. The practice of the law, especially at the big end of town, by its nature, is adversarial. You either win or you lose. It’s not a great background to take into the FA role. She would have been far better suited to the AG role in my view.
In that respect, another example of appalling judgement by Abbott. Brandi’s should have been booted from the cabinet. I’m not sure who should have taken on FA. Which of itself is a reflection of the very small talent pool available to Abbott from which to draw his ministers.
again from Keene
Coalition voters have suddenly changed their view of the Australian economy, courtesy of a change in government, today’s Essential Report shows.
In short, if further evidence were needed, we can confirm voters’ view of the economy is strongly influenced by whether their preferred political party is in office.
Outsider
Josh Frydenberg might be preferable in Foreign Affairs
Outsider
JBishop stating that Australia is not seeking permission by Indonesia but their understanding to implememt their boat policies is the height of arrogance and stupdity
Thank you Zoomster. I love your anecdote!! I had forgotten about the prohibition on candidates, but I’m sure you’ve heard a wealth of stories from your scrutineers over the years! That ones a beauty!! But hardly evidence of the systemic failures in the system that Palmer is now alleging.
I actually met Palmer in person at a conference once. An outrageous and hilarious man!!! Obviously with a few strange ideas….
Well BK and Victoria.
I’m strapped in and am looking forward to where it all ends.
My only wish now is for Puff Adder out… Big Clive IN and let the fireworks begin.
If it wasn’t going to be so serious it would dead set be funny.
Victoria. Julie Bishop, for all I have said about her this morning, is an appalling choice as FA minister. For the same reason she was an appalling choice as Treasury spokesman. Tony Abbott has not demonstrated much capacity to align the “talents” of his ministerial pool with portfolio allocations.
jeffemu
The way I feel at present, I am not in the least bit amused. In many respects, I am more angry with the Labor party. How self indulgent have they been. They have been politically stupid on so many levels and now we have Abbott and his cronies in charge. How did it get to this
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/asbestos-dustup-overcooked-as-pollies-turn-up-heat-20130603-2nm85.html
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especially for the outsider
outsider
comment re
MY MINE REALLY
jeffemu
Today is the day we may see the Puff Adder come out from its hole and spittingly unhinge while conceding.
It’s an oddity of Australian politics that the more professionalized approach of Labor – if you like, that long dedication to involvement in the party/unions as a prerequisite to pre selection (with a few obvious exceptions which, I might add, generally end in tears) produces far more competent MPs. I know that’s a generalization, but from my observation is also true.
The Liberal process, on the other hand, produces a mish mash of MPs who have often sought refuge in politics as an alternative to a generally unspectacular business or professional career (again with obvious exceptions, eg, Turnbull and Julie Bishop). It severely limits the talent pool from which to draw future ministers.
Tony Abbott is backpeddling from his promise to end car industry assistance. Add $500 million to the Liberal budget blow out.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-17/tony-abbott-demands-car-makers-such-as-holden-boost-exports/4961844
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The $500 million pales into insignificance when compared to the subsidies for the mining industry
I am waiting for the current Chief Scientist, Prof. ian Chubb to come out swinging. I know from personal experience that he does not suffer fools gladly.
VICTORIA
no; don’t agree indulgent where, when
please don’t forget all the bills [passed the ind.
and the media’
how remarkable we even got one bill through let alone 500 and some outstanding ones also that may be trashed I would say
the nbn of course I doubre NDIS will stay and gonski
frankly I don’t care as long as we get rid of them next exlection its notup to us to stay on track no looking back
don’t rewrite history
we did our best under dreadful circumstances
had a lady say about all the infighting
I said well yes.,
but who spread the rumours
and if it had of been the libs and I bet there was
it would not have got a mention in the press. she blinked and said yes you know that true,
so no I don’t see us as self indulgent
yes a couple of who thought they new best
and looking back JG could of been one of those 2
but not going there. every again
just my thoughts
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My Say. Julie Bishop is a dud as FA Minister.
The only point of my post this morning was that Labor folk should not resort to misogyny. And that the prism of politics distorts the real person. Julie Bishop has an awful political persona.
While I’m at it, Alexander Downer in person is a hilarious man! His political persona was to take no prisoners. The fact that he and Nick Bolkus have a long standing business partnership speaks volumes for the way in which he was one of the few politicians in recent memory who could actually form personal friendships across the political divide. Downer was a far far far better FA Minister than Julie Bishop could ever hope to be.
You know I’m a staunch Labor supporter. This is a time for us all to reflect. Abbott has botched his Minsterial appointments. Julie Bishop being the best example. God help us all for the next 3 years.
notup ////NOW UP TO US and add to that mps,,, I just hope the most self indulgent can shut mouth.
end of comments
[The thought of Cormann, Joyce, Pyne, Brough, Abetz, Brandis et al is doing my head in]
thinking Dr Strangelove +++
Of course the international papers tell it like it is
[Again and again the women of Australia were reassured by conservative spokespeople that Tony was no sexist, but that it was Gillard herself who’d played “the gender card” in her famous speech. The Abbott daughters spoke at their father’s campaign launch. His wife gave exclusive interviews about how much he loved women to just about everyone. He got elected.]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-politics/10313055/Why-some-Australian-women-loathe-Tony-Abbott-especially-now.html
Outsider, I agree. A lot of them are quite nice in person – they just play up an act.
at least there’s very little chance of grudging respect occurring
Victoria @ 79
I understand where you are coming from. I too feel the way you do.
But, I think there is a lot of good that can come out of all of this bad period for the Labor party. If we don’t learn from this then we never will.
In saying that I think a lot of the electorate might really need to experience some hard medicine. A lot of the people I talk to have never experienced the bad times and are in for a nasty shock. A lot live in a bubble world that it will never happen to them.
Well now when it does happen they will not be able to point the finger at the Labor Party. The protected species known as the Coalition will have to start making policy and not just hold up little blue books and keep repeating their often used slogans.
It’s time to deliver and I dont think they can.
Thanks, fess!!!
my say
Labor has been internally divided for so long, and that is why they failed to get the confidence of the electorate. Fr this, they deserve derision. That is why we know have this third rate mob running the country.
Oops now
BK@82
Revenge is a dish best served cold. You’ve waited a while for this, enjoy it!
:devil: 😀
I think it’s a little harsh to say that Bishop is a failed FM the day before she is sworn in.
Kinkajou
Lol!
Electronic voting has its problems as seen in the USA.
I think Clive was “off” with his conspiracy theory that the AEC has too many ex-military personnel.
But the comment, I think it was “X” that booths be electronically linked so that a person can’t go to another booth has merit, and also the idea that ID should be shown.
Someone tweeted “need ID to get in a club but not to vote”