The last of the major polls go as follows:
• A Newspoll survey conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from over 2500 respondents has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 46% and the Greens on 9%, for a commanding Coalition lead of 54-46 on two-party preferred. Full breakdowns here.
• Nielsen concurs with Newspoll on both major parties’ primary votes in its poll of 1431 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, but has the Greens two points higher at 11%. Both The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald have exasperatingly declined to provide breakdowns, but from what I can gather from the printed copy, the poll has the Coalition ahead 56-44 in New South Wales and behind 51-49 in Victoria, while in Queensland Labor’s primary vote is on just 27% (under two Senate quotas, for those of you with an eye on that kind of thing).
• Morgan has a poll of 4937 respondents conducted by SMS, online and live interview phone polling which has Labor at just 31.5%, with the Coalition on 44%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. This pans out to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but to 54.5-45.5 on the previous election preferences method used by Nielsen and Newspoll.
BludgerTrack has been updated with all of the above, and it continues to offer a rosier assessment for Labor than the betting markets in particular would suggest (though note that I’ve knocked on the head my idea of revising the preference model to grant Labor a bigger share of the Palmer United Party vote in Queensland, which has made two seats’ difference). As I’ve noted a number of times, this is mostly down to the consistent tendency of electorate-level polling to produce worse results for Labor than that national and statewide polling that are the bread and butter of BludgerTrack. To illustrate this point, and also for your general convenience, I offer below a complete listing to all such polls published during the campaign. Averages are also provided for the swings in each state, and by each pollster. What this suggests is that the automated phone polling by Galaxy, which has generally produced highly plausible results, has not been too far out of line with national polling, and it has generally offered highly plausible results. The live interview phone polling of Newspoll looks to have performed similarly, but that’s because its sample includes the unusual cases of New England and Lyne. Beyond that three automated phone pollsters who are relatively new to the game, and whose consistent findings of huge Coalition swings should accordingly be treated with caution.
Key: NP=Newspoll, RT=ReachTEL, Gal.=Galaxy, Lon.=Lonergan, JWS=JWS Research.
NEW SOUTH WALES N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Dobell/RobertsonNP 13/8 505 35 50 8 46 -7 Lindsay Lon. 14/8 1038 32 60 3 36 -15 Lyne NP 14/8 504 26 51 7 41 +3 New England NP 14/8 504 24 53 5 34 +1 Kingsford Smith RT 15/8 610 38 47 10 48 -7 McMahon RT 15/8 631 45 50 2 47 -11 Blaxland RT 15/8 636 50 47 3 52 -10 Bennelong RT 15/8 631 28 64 8 35 -12 Macquarie JWS 15/8 710 35 51 8 45 -4 Lindsay JWS 15/8 578 35 57 3 39 -12 Greenway JWS 15/8 570 44 46 1 51 0 Banks JWS 15/8 542 43 50 4 47 -4 Werriwa Gal. 20/8 548 41 48 5 48 -9 Reid Gal. 20/8 557 38 50 9 47 -6 Parramatta Gal. 20/8 561 44 45 4 50 -4 Lindsay Gal. 20/8 566 41 50 3 46 -5 Greenway Gal. 20/8 585 45 46 3 49 -2 Barton Gal. 20/8 551 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 557 40 47 6 48 -3 Barton Gal. 20/8 575 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 575 40 47 6 48 -3 K-S/Page/E-M NP 26/8 601 37 47 11 48 -7 ALP marginals* NP 26/8 800 34 52 7 43 -9 McMahon JWS 28/8 482 44 52 3 47 -11 Average swing -6.1 * Parramatta/Reid/Banks/Lindsay/Greenway. VICTORIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Deakin RT 15/8 619 36 50 13 47 -4 Corangamite RT 15/8 633 36 54 10 44 -6 Melbourne RT 15/8 860 35 24 35 Indi RT 15/8 611 18 47 6 Corangamite JWS 15/8 587 36 48 10 47 -3 Aston JWS 15/8 577 29 59 8 37 -12 La Trobe Gal. 20/8 575 36 45 12 49 -3 Corangamite Gal. 20/8 575 35 52 9 44 -6 Chisholm Gal. 20/8 575 46 45 7 48 -8 ALP marginals* NP 28/8 800 34 47 13 47 -4 McEwen JWS 28/8 540 35 47 6 45 -14 Bendigo JWS 28/8 588 40 40 9 51 -9 Average swing -6.9 * La Trobe/Deakin/Corangamite QUEENSLAND N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Griffith RT 05/8 702 48 43 8 46 -12 Forde RT 08/8 725 40 48 4 46 -2 Forde Lon. 15/8 1160 34 56 4 40 -8 Forde JWS 15/8 568 33 54 4 40 -8 Brisbane JWS 15/8 607 36 50 9 46 -3 LNP marginals* NP 20/8 1382 32 54 5 40 -8 Forde NP 20/8 502 38 48 5 46 -2 Griffith Lon. 21/8 958 38 47 11 48 -10 Griffith NP 22/8 500 37 48 12 48 -10 Lilley JWS 28/8 757 40 48 5 46 -7 Griffith JWS 28/8 551 48 40 7 57 -1 Blair Gal. 29/8 604 39 40 8 50 -4 Dawson Gal. 29/8 550 34 48 4 43 -5 Griffith Gal. 29/8 655 41 37 12 54 -4 Herbert Gal. 29/8 589 36 47 6 45 -3 ALP marginals** NP 30/8 800 38 42 8 49 -4 Average swing -5.9 * Brisbane/Forde/Longman/Herbert/Dawson/Bonner/Flynn/Fisher ** Moreton/Petrie/Lilley/Capricornia/Blair/Rankin/Oxley WESTERN AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Brand Gal. 29/8 660 42 42 10 52 -1 Hasluck Gal. 29/8 553 34 46 10 45 -4 Perth Gal. 29/8 550 47 35 13 58 +2 Average swing -1.2 SOUTH AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Hindmarsh Gal. 22/8 586 41 44 10 50 -6 Wakefield Gal. 26/8 575 44 35 7 55 -6 Adelaide Gal. 29/8 571 40 39 12 54 -4 Average swing -5.0 TASMANIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Bass RT 22/8 541 30 52 8 42 -15 Braddon RT 22/8 588 36 51 4 43 -14 Denison RT 22/8 563 19 24 11 Franklin RT 22/8 544 30 39 16 51 -10 Lyons RT 22/8 549 30 47 11 44 -18 Bass RT 03/9 659 28 54 10 41 -16 Average swing -14.7 AVERAGE SWING BY POLLSTER N SWING Galaxy 22 -4.3 Newspoll 10 -4.7 JWS Research 13 -6.8 ReachTEL 16 -8.6 Lonergan 3 -11.3
womble 84
Of course some would say that the Greens helped Abbott become Liberal leadfer in the first place.
Whatever.
Sticking by my prediction of the worst defeat ever for the ALP.
[The Greens policy is a high immigration policy.]
I support a high immigration policy. Immigration = growth, prosperity and social health. I also support a high refugee intake. What I oppose, and what most Australians oppose, is a criminal racket subverting our immigration and refugee programs by bringing thousands of unauthorised, undocumented people to Australia against the stated wishes of the Australian government. Even if every one of them is a genuine refugee (which is not the case), no sovereign state can accept being FORCED to accept refugees it has not agreed to take.
Still, it’s too late to have this argument now. Labor has been comprehensively outflanked on this issue, and those in the party who have allowed this to happen will have to accept a large part of the blame for today’s outcome.
Tweet of the day from Andrew Leigh. Expecting he makes it onto the front bench after today.
[@ALeighMP: Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more.]
My prediction for the first “non-care” funding promise to be ditched –
The 1.5 billion dollars Abbott promised Denis Napthine for his East-West Toll Tunnel. After the Federal Libs actually look closely at the NON-business case for this they will run a mile.
Premier Napthalene may then have to “mothball” it – tunnel -builders have had their fingers badly burnt twice in Brisbane recently and are a bit wary of duds now.
41m
If Abbott wins,the poor,the disadvantaged,the disabled will be the ones to suffer the most remember them when you fill out the ballot paper.
Retweeted by Helena Karter
or “non-core” – pretty much the same I suppose
In the queue at Willoughby Girls High school (North Sydney). A grand old school about to celebrate 150 years.
Labor obtained 9% of the primary vote in the state seat here in 2011.
The chance of swinging a voter as they come onto the school grounds or once inside is diminished because there is no one here and no posters etc. Greens might come second.
sortius @sortius 6m
Seeing as polls open in a matter of minutes, here’s my article from yesterday on Abbott’s “e-Safety”: http://www.sortius-is-a-geek.com/last-minute-filtering-facts/ … #ausvotes
psephos: yes, of course it’s the loss of mining sector and other blue collar voters that has done the most damage to Labor this time. But I think those sectors have been changing slowly for a long time and those voters will be forever lost to Labor while it looks and feels like a creaky old trade union party.
It has dawned on me lately that Abbott has proved that a political party can now abandon the centre ground and still triumph. Despite how most people on PB see him, Howard was basically a centrist. Abbott is not. While his message within his own head is very confused – as we will soon see – he has, thanks largely to the excellent work of Loughnane and Credlin – projected a very clear message to the voters, especially the ageing baby boomers: everything’s going to be just dandy with the Budget, climate change is crap, if you don’t feel like you’ve got enough money now I’ll get you some more, we’ll keep those scary Moslems away (except, I forgot to mention, those ones of 457 visas who’ll take your kids’ jobs), etc, etc.
A good Labor message for the future, one that would incorporate some of what the Greens are on about (the good stuff, not the loony left stuff) could be summed up in the phrase “Australians are better than that”. This is a Labor which would care about the environment, solve the problem of boat people without exploiting them for votes, invests in education and the future, stops pandering to rooms full of union delegates and starts reaching out again to aspirational voters, etc, etc.
If Shorten has any sense, the first thing he should do is try to bring Latham into thr fold into some sort of behind-the-scenes advisory role. The man is an uncouth boor, but he has a better grasp of the way Labor needs to go that the entire current and former staff of Hawker-Britton put together.
Labor needs to stop listening to focus groups and shock jocks and start forging its own message. Let the Murdoch press and their cronies attack all they like: just develop a coherent, positive narrative and stick to it. And this should be a slightly more centre left message: right now, brand differentiation is essential. If they go with a small target strategy waiting for Tony to blow up, they might be waiting a long while. The guy is very disciplined: there must be something in those celices and hair shirts!!
THIS IS ALL TWITTER NOT ME
Not Campbell Newman @Can_do_Campbell 29m
I am going to avoid twitter today but I would like to leave you with this thought, if we wake up with Abbott as pm tomorrow, you were warned
The Guardian @guardian 2h
UK’s lowest paid employees to be classed as ‘not working enough’: http://gu.com/p/3tt2c/tf
Well I hope newspoll stuff up the 2pp by 2 points. Puff adder goes and Jason Li wins.
Image will appear as a link
news.com.au @newscomauHQ 1h
And in non-election news, James and Erica Packer are calling it quits after 6 years of marriage, http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity/was-it-stress-james-packer-and-erica-to-divorce-after-six-years/story-fn907478-1226713848470 …
JaneAustinALP 1h
Across the globe in London, my brother Robert takes up the Labor fight! #politas #auspol #standupforlabor pic.twitter.com/CMVhCQe7pa
Lovely morning to vote here in Melbourne.
My prediction yesterday that Chisholm would stay Labor may have been a bit rash.
Happy voting everyone.
Angela Wilson @ange_wilson 1h
Thinking of all our fab ALP booth captains setting up this morning! Ahoy me hearties! Great work guys x
SPOT THE DIFFERENC IN THE HUMINITY OF
n one pulling a knife on any one from out side
this was with mobile phones the new Guardian poll is showing 50.8 LNP to 49.2 ALP. plse let it be
Expand
this is the poll theY don’t want u to know about
VOTE VOTE
meher baba
Taking Abbott’s recent behaviour (reversing so many vows) as a guide, he may just curl up into a ball and suck his thumb, hoping to hang on to PMship for as long as possible by not making waves. Keating thinks Hockey is another slow-reacting sook when it comes to the big decisions.
I think Shorten will be an interim opposition leader, like Beazley (who I think would have made a good PM).
Off to vote, then to work.
Catch. [influence of teenage children]
mb
AS USUALY POSTS TO LONG cannot be bothered
watch this it may be the last thing u ever watch as the intenet slowlydies in asut
victor @otiose94 37m
UNDECIDED???
MUST SEE!!!!
@vanbadham Summarises Election Extremely Eloquently
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_FHueIfZlM&feature=youtu.be …
#auspol #ausvotes #afl #nrl
Retweeted by Van Badham
View media
Before I go and vote , Iam curious if there has been any opinion polls in Mallee. I am assuming the nat will win here.
‘Tweet of the day from Andrew Leigh. Expecting he makes it onto the front bench after today.’
Let’s hope Shorten makes him shadow treasurer.
Felicity Ogilvie @FelicityOgilvie 22m
.@Tony_Burke has moved all but a few of the unaccompanied children detained @ Pontville into community detention
Ogilvie @FelicityOgilvie 22m
.@Tony_Burke has moved all but a few of the unaccompanied children detained @ Pontville into community detention
Retweeted by Tony Burke
so what do libs thinks
myknittingwool
Tweet text
Reply to @eatatjoe2
Image will appear as a link
Scott Morrison @ScottMorrisonMP 8m
They’re voting at the modern birthplace of Australia @ Kurnell, 80 deep as booth opened. A great place to celebrate our democracy #theshire
mango @ByronBayMango 3m
I’m Voting Labor for #BetterSchools
All kids deserve a good education,
Not just those with parents that can afford to buy one.
#AUSpol
Retweeted by Marcus John Knight
[quote]19.this was with mobile phones the new Guardian poll is showing 50.8 LNP to 49.2 ALP. plse let it be
this is the poll theY don’t want u to know about[/quote]
We all know about it.
AshGhebranious @AshGhebranious 4m
Ask Andrew Robb if we should trust a party that releases two major social policies, child care and aged, late at night @BreakfastNews
========================================
slash an get rid staff ratios all on line
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oops sorry, didn’t think that posted from my phone
As to Psephos – I disagree. You don’t win a debate on an issue, even one as “big” as asylum seekers by throwing in the towel. Labor should’ve stood up for what they believed and argued for it imo
There was probably 15-20 questions asked at the Rooty Hill Forum, how many on boats? NONE – Murdoch cared about boats, 2GB/2UE cared about boats. People might say they cared about boats as issue but when it comes to voting most care more about themselves
Leadership is about bringing the people to your position not buckling at the knees and caving in
Jan 2014 – “where’s my schoolkids bonus”
Can someone put my say out of its misery.
I love the way that “educated” why typed, my say- thus proving to be a closet Lib supporter (and your lack of education).
Wonder what mad bob and frank calamari are up to this morning 😀
Australian Labor @AustralianLabor 17h
Tony Abbott would be the worst thing to happen to infrastructure in this country: http://youtu.be/yfhxOHG_Co4 Ping @AlboMP #Vote1Labor
Retweeted 51 times
watch the video
Why = my say. Auto correct strikes again 🙁
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Brad @bradthegunn 3m
Exit polls : ‘Abbott is a wanker’
Retweeted by Marquis
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sortius @sortius 57s
Is it too early for scotch? Or should I ease into my “accepting the facts” stupor by starting with beer?
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Bill Kinnaird @billkinn 1h
@TonyHWindsor All the best Tony
It is a sad day today as you leave the paliamentary pantomime.
Have a happy retirement mate.
Retweeted by EVERALD COMPTON
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☵ Z☰N Digital ® ☲ @z3n_digital 1m
RT @Dan_Gulberry: Don’t be a fucking idiot today! http://dontbeafuckingidiot.com/ #dontbeafuckingidiot #auspol #ausvotes
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Brookings Econ @BrookingsEcon 8h
What do the jobs numbers say beyond the tick down in the unemployment rate? They say “blech!” says @justinwolfers http://brookin.gs/4R4u
Retweeted by Justin Wolfers
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Arkwright @Arkwright4 7m
#furnituremovies Cabinet Fever
Retweeted by Tracey Asquith
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☵ Z☰N Digital ® ☲ @z3n_digital 1m
I voted Labor because i am not a selfish prick who only cares for oneself , i prefer everyone to have a fair go #auspol #ausvotes
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Catherine Deveny @CatherineDeveny 2m
This time next week indigenous people will be be classified under flora and fauna again. Like the old days #1950herewecome
Retweeted by Marquis
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Vote Early-Often Dan @Dan_Gulberry 2m
Don’t be a fucking idiot today! http://dontbeafuckingidiot.com/ #dontbeafuckingidiot #auspol #ausvotes
Rosemour, it won’t be as bad as 1966. And let’s see how the preferences flow I’m not convinced the polling has got them right.
If Labor keeps underestimating Tony Abbott the way meher baba and Psephos do then Labor will go out of business altogether in 2016 when he takes the rest of our seats.
My Say, why don’t you go and hand out some cards for Dick Adams instead of posting all this nonsense here?
(Yes I’m grumpy today and I’m not apologising for it.)
my say@122. My posts might be long, but at least they aren’t full of incoherent shouting. And what you said about wishing Rummel’s child to be born with a disability was beneath contempt.
When I first came to PB, I formed the impression that you were a nice old granny. Sorry, my mistake.
[quote]33.Can someone put my say out of its misery.[/quote]
I think she’s(?) planning on spamming the site all day.
*Sigh*
Is My Say from Tasmania ?
Explains the educating thing she was banging on about.
[Psephos
……And why are they doing that? Partly economic/aspirational issues. Partly corruption in NSW state Labor. But mainly I’m afraid because of Labor’s massive policy failure on border protection.]
You may not be in the my say or Meguire Bob league, but this post is classic denial, IMO.
The ALP went hard on the policy you wanted, it boasted about it up hill and down dale, it got a surge in the polling on the question “who do you support on boats?”….everything you would have hoped for (given your views had nothing to do with the issue or the people affected, just the voting impact)…..and?
What you are missing is the broader issue here that the ALP has lost its soul. It is the brand issue problem, and it started with KB back in the early 2000s.
The ALP wins when it has a strong focus on a fair go and when you sell out you get thrown out. However, don’t let me stop the NSW “Always” Right view from taking hold. You keep telling em in the ALP inner circles how right you were all along and they just need to keep listening to you as it works a treat for me and prolonged Liberal government….Abbott wont be there that long, I can wait! :devil:
, one in every eight to ten Australians are yet to make up their minds about who to vote for, making a mockery of 50-50 or 52-48 or whatever. There is a veneer of complacency in the assurances that Abbott will become Prime Minister no matter what, and underneath it is a shrillness that underlines a failure of persuasion; a government that has supposedly failed so comprehensively should be made of less stern stuff. It should not be so hard to knock over as it is
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/for-crying-out-loud.html?spref=tw
read more
don’t be mocked when u mention the polls above they are as real as any other ?????????
READ MY POST ABOUT THE GUARDIAN POLL WELL PUT TOGETHER ON THE GUARDIAN NEWS SITE ONLY 2 POINT APART
Bar Bar @138: I’m sorry that my posts are long, but don’t try to comment on them if you don’t read them. How have I underestimated Tony Abbott in any of my posts this morning? It’s the Labor leadership who have consistently and fatally underestimated him, as Bob Hawke commented this morning.
That said, I don’t expect Abbott to perform as well as PM as he did as LOTO. Like Rudd, he is a disciplined performer, but not a discplined thinker. A good PM needs to be both.
wal kolla@142: careful there. My say might be a bit erratic, but at least she’s not a Victorian.
meher baba
Hey, watch your mouth. You and I were getting on well until now!
Calling it.
Mod Lib, you have tried all year to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds. But now you are about to be in the position of being held accountable for the actions of an Abbott government, none of whose policies, by your own account, you agree with. I for one will enjoy that very much.
Apparently Tony Abbot doesn’t always mean what he says.
Laurie Oakes thinks that’s a problem.
The ALP are ok with it.
That’s why they never mentioned it.
Genius.
Pure gold genius.
Today will be a great day; Rudd and Hawker gone finally from the corridors of ALP central.
And as Oakes says. it’ll end in tears for Tony. Two things to look forward to.