The last of the major polls go as follows:
• A Newspoll survey conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from over 2500 respondents has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 46% and the Greens on 9%, for a commanding Coalition lead of 54-46 on two-party preferred. Full breakdowns here.
• Nielsen concurs with Newspoll on both major parties’ primary votes in its poll of 1431 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, but has the Greens two points higher at 11%. Both The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald have exasperatingly declined to provide breakdowns, but from what I can gather from the printed copy, the poll has the Coalition ahead 56-44 in New South Wales and behind 51-49 in Victoria, while in Queensland Labor’s primary vote is on just 27% (under two Senate quotas, for those of you with an eye on that kind of thing).
• Morgan has a poll of 4937 respondents conducted by SMS, online and live interview phone polling which has Labor at just 31.5%, with the Coalition on 44%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. This pans out to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but to 54.5-45.5 on the previous election preferences method used by Nielsen and Newspoll.
BludgerTrack has been updated with all of the above, and it continues to offer a rosier assessment for Labor than the betting markets in particular would suggest (though note that I’ve knocked on the head my idea of revising the preference model to grant Labor a bigger share of the Palmer United Party vote in Queensland, which has made two seats’ difference). As I’ve noted a number of times, this is mostly down to the consistent tendency of electorate-level polling to produce worse results for Labor than that national and statewide polling that are the bread and butter of BludgerTrack. To illustrate this point, and also for your general convenience, I offer below a complete listing to all such polls published during the campaign. Averages are also provided for the swings in each state, and by each pollster. What this suggests is that the automated phone polling by Galaxy, which has generally produced highly plausible results, has not been too far out of line with national polling, and it has generally offered highly plausible results. The live interview phone polling of Newspoll looks to have performed similarly, but that’s because its sample includes the unusual cases of New England and Lyne. Beyond that three automated phone pollsters who are relatively new to the game, and whose consistent findings of huge Coalition swings should accordingly be treated with caution.
Key: NP=Newspoll, RT=ReachTEL, Gal.=Galaxy, Lon.=Lonergan, JWS=JWS Research.
NEW SOUTH WALES N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Dobell/RobertsonNP 13/8 505 35 50 8 46 -7 Lindsay Lon. 14/8 1038 32 60 3 36 -15 Lyne NP 14/8 504 26 51 7 41 +3 New England NP 14/8 504 24 53 5 34 +1 Kingsford Smith RT 15/8 610 38 47 10 48 -7 McMahon RT 15/8 631 45 50 2 47 -11 Blaxland RT 15/8 636 50 47 3 52 -10 Bennelong RT 15/8 631 28 64 8 35 -12 Macquarie JWS 15/8 710 35 51 8 45 -4 Lindsay JWS 15/8 578 35 57 3 39 -12 Greenway JWS 15/8 570 44 46 1 51 0 Banks JWS 15/8 542 43 50 4 47 -4 Werriwa Gal. 20/8 548 41 48 5 48 -9 Reid Gal. 20/8 557 38 50 9 47 -6 Parramatta Gal. 20/8 561 44 45 4 50 -4 Lindsay Gal. 20/8 566 41 50 3 46 -5 Greenway Gal. 20/8 585 45 46 3 49 -2 Barton Gal. 20/8 551 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 557 40 47 6 48 -3 Barton Gal. 20/8 575 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 575 40 47 6 48 -3 K-S/Page/E-M NP 26/8 601 37 47 11 48 -7 ALP marginals* NP 26/8 800 34 52 7 43 -9 McMahon JWS 28/8 482 44 52 3 47 -11 Average swing -6.1 * Parramatta/Reid/Banks/Lindsay/Greenway. VICTORIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Deakin RT 15/8 619 36 50 13 47 -4 Corangamite RT 15/8 633 36 54 10 44 -6 Melbourne RT 15/8 860 35 24 35 Indi RT 15/8 611 18 47 6 Corangamite JWS 15/8 587 36 48 10 47 -3 Aston JWS 15/8 577 29 59 8 37 -12 La Trobe Gal. 20/8 575 36 45 12 49 -3 Corangamite Gal. 20/8 575 35 52 9 44 -6 Chisholm Gal. 20/8 575 46 45 7 48 -8 ALP marginals* NP 28/8 800 34 47 13 47 -4 McEwen JWS 28/8 540 35 47 6 45 -14 Bendigo JWS 28/8 588 40 40 9 51 -9 Average swing -6.9 * La Trobe/Deakin/Corangamite QUEENSLAND N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Griffith RT 05/8 702 48 43 8 46 -12 Forde RT 08/8 725 40 48 4 46 -2 Forde Lon. 15/8 1160 34 56 4 40 -8 Forde JWS 15/8 568 33 54 4 40 -8 Brisbane JWS 15/8 607 36 50 9 46 -3 LNP marginals* NP 20/8 1382 32 54 5 40 -8 Forde NP 20/8 502 38 48 5 46 -2 Griffith Lon. 21/8 958 38 47 11 48 -10 Griffith NP 22/8 500 37 48 12 48 -10 Lilley JWS 28/8 757 40 48 5 46 -7 Griffith JWS 28/8 551 48 40 7 57 -1 Blair Gal. 29/8 604 39 40 8 50 -4 Dawson Gal. 29/8 550 34 48 4 43 -5 Griffith Gal. 29/8 655 41 37 12 54 -4 Herbert Gal. 29/8 589 36 47 6 45 -3 ALP marginals** NP 30/8 800 38 42 8 49 -4 Average swing -5.9 * Brisbane/Forde/Longman/Herbert/Dawson/Bonner/Flynn/Fisher ** Moreton/Petrie/Lilley/Capricornia/Blair/Rankin/Oxley WESTERN AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Brand Gal. 29/8 660 42 42 10 52 -1 Hasluck Gal. 29/8 553 34 46 10 45 -4 Perth Gal. 29/8 550 47 35 13 58 +2 Average swing -1.2 SOUTH AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Hindmarsh Gal. 22/8 586 41 44 10 50 -6 Wakefield Gal. 26/8 575 44 35 7 55 -6 Adelaide Gal. 29/8 571 40 39 12 54 -4 Average swing -5.0 TASMANIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Bass RT 22/8 541 30 52 8 42 -15 Braddon RT 22/8 588 36 51 4 43 -14 Denison RT 22/8 563 19 24 11 Franklin RT 22/8 544 30 39 16 51 -10 Lyons RT 22/8 549 30 47 11 44 -18 Bass RT 03/9 659 28 54 10 41 -16 Average swing -14.7 AVERAGE SWING BY POLLSTER N SWING Galaxy 22 -4.3 Newspoll 10 -4.7 JWS Research 13 -6.8 ReachTEL 16 -8.6 Lonergan 3 -11.3
Interesting that Newspoll’s final poll didn’t do a decimal place. Last election, their final poll was out with the actual result by 0.1% on the 2PP.
I guess when all polls are showing a comfortable coalition win, there’s no point in decimalising.
[Tony The Geek Rulz @geeksrulz 44m
Pollsters pack 2nd pair of undies RT @GhostWhoVotes: #Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (1PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48.5 L/NP 51.5 #ausvotes]
lefty e
I suppose if pollsters gets it wrong they can always explain it as being a higher number of minor party prefs skewing the result.
Womble
I read the parties above the line and thought, yep, stop the Greens, that’ll do me.
Do I know anything about the party? Nop, but I didn’t care, the name sounds ideal to me 😀
Which state are you in centre?
dave
[Antony Green called the 2007 result about 7:30 pm.
If the move is as large as is being projected, we should have an early result tonight.]
And he has finally got what he wanted and got out of the tally room, which he claims strangles his technology. So maybe he’ll call it at 6.15. 😆
@lefty e/752
That’s about 2 hrs old now, Morgan posted another one after.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 48s
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (3PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 L/NP 52 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 22s
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (3PM update) Primary Votes: ALP 33.5 L/NP 42.5 GRN 11 PUP 5 #ausvotes
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 52s
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (3PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48]
[Do I know anything about the party? Nop, but I didn’t care, the name sounds ideal to me]
they are the Outdoor recreation party,Centre
http://www.orp.org.au/index.html
I’m in Sydney, Australia’s no.1 city and on the north west seat of Mitchell.
The way morgans exit polls are trending the alp will be ahead by 4.00 oclock
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 52s
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (3PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48]
Still 48. Its holding.
As Tony the Geek sez, Pack a 2nd pair of undies, pollsters!
Bob Ellis has already called it for Labor based on the exit poll primaries. 😀
Seems to be movement from Greens and LNP to ALP and back again.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 22s
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (3PM update) Primary Votes: ALP 33.5 L/NP 42.5 GRN 11 PUP 5 #ausvotes]
That is actually 52.5%
Exit polls were all pro ALP last time….
Early voting is much bigger this time, and LNP postals are more than double ALP…..
….just saying :devil:
lefty
Holy shit, I could’ve just voted for the Libs 😆
The ALP primary vote is woeful for the exit polls
[Bob Ellis has already called it for Labor based on the exit poll primaries]
Thats nothing, Bob Meguire is naming his ministry.
ALL YOUR MARGINALS ARE BELONG TO US!
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
@AshleyLeahy 2010 pref flows, #Morgan are asking for first pref only. #ausvotes
[Centre
Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 2:55 pm | PERMALINK
I’m in Sydney, Australia’s no.1 city and on the north west seat of Mitchell]
Heavens! We could have been standing next to each other when we voted!
:devil:
Do you know where the preferences for “Stop the Greens” go? You didn’t just help get Pauline Hanson elected did you?
I think you did, Centre.
Nah,just kidding: theyre a genuine right wing fringe group. :p
The voters always getting it right is not the justification for democracy. The justification is that it’s better than the alternative. In that sense only is there something in the remark attributed to Hawke because despite error/noise it generally works better than anything else.
Bob Ellis: a alp vote in the hand is worth two NATs in the bush
What was the exit poll primary result from Morgan at this stage last time?
Ugh Alex Hawke – you have my deepest sympathies
Young Alex won’t be too please with my ballot paper, let me tell you!
lefty
Yep, they sound real right wing 😐
The name got me in.
Stop the boats – Stop the Greens 😯
Morgan’s (only) exit poll last time was 51-49 to ALP.
[At 1pm today a special sms Morgan ‘Exit’ Poll shows the primary vote is ALP 38.5% , L-NP 43%, Greens 12% and 6.5% Others and Independents. On a 2 Party Preferred basis this still translates to 51% ALP 49% L-NP as reported in the 7News Morgan Poll last night and this morning on Sunrise.]
So its still only 52/48 would i be right in presuming the really undecided wont vote until late arvo.
Okay back to the footy.
Again that exit was based on 2007 flows…
My observation from voting in marginal Deakin
– young and middle aged men largely had lib htvs only
– asian voters had largely a full set of htv cards
– not many young voters about
– older people were only ones noticed with labor green htvs only
ML
The poll is being done via SMS and includes early voters.
We’ll have the actual results in a few hours time.
The result is likely to be known before the polls close in WA, as per usual.
Morgan exit 2010 (1pm): 38.5% – 43% – 12% – 6.5% (49% to 51% – a 1% ALP overestimate)
Morgan exit 2013 (1pm): 34.5% – 42% – 11% – 13% (51.5% to 48.5%)
So a 4% primary vote swing away from the ALP and 1% swing away from the LNP & Greens
And a 2.5% TPP swing to the Libs
ML – again… any poll which is wedding too much to 2010 AND makes assumptions on PUP/KAP flows are a bit risky.
[So its still only 52/48 would i be right in presuming the really undecided wont vote until late arvo.
Okay back to the footy.]
Yessir… The trend is clearly with the alp.
A comfortable alp majority.
Abbott to lose his seat.
Diaz to win greenway and get elevated to LOTO.
Mirabella as deputy.
@Mod lib/785
With a difference being KAP, Greens, PUP and others high.
That doubling of others to 13% … it will all come down to those preferences so there are still some surprises in store potentially, but obviously 33/34% primary for the ALP is atrocious regardless.
The majors are both being given the middle finger, unsurprisingly.
The footy is uglier and nastier than anything Labor and Liberal have provided this campaign.
It may not be true because it was reported on ABC24.
Rudd has said that if he retains his seat he will not continue for the full term of the 2013 govt.
J341983 (where does that name come from by the way????):
The preference flow question is a big one, granted. However, isn’t PUP preferencing LNP?
The surge in others in the Exit poll (and recent polling) is mostly PUP and most of PUP goes LNP, so the 60% preference flow of “Others” doesn’t seem too far off to me. If it is 40% going to the LNP and PUP get 6% the difference in the TPP would only be about 1%….not enough to make a difference IMO.
Centre, the only centre you’re near is the centre for self obsessed cultural supremacy.
That’s a right wing spot if I’m not mistaken.
[i think Juulia will be getting many phone calls from labor mps and ex-mps apologising for being so wrong and not purging the party of the rudd cancer earlier
by castle ]
I think you mean Gillard and others will be ringing Rudd apologising for ruining the party blaming him and stabbing him in the back for personal gain and for character assassinating him to try and help their cause.
Sunny Coast report.
[The AEC Returning Officer has just sent though the official figures of the number of Pre Poll votes.
There were a record number. Fairfax 24,000 and Fisher 19,000]
Lots of people just taking Clive HTVs, booth very quiet no early kick the Govt out queue. My bet, no primary swing away from ALP in Coolum.
It took NSW voters a series of attempts to get it right.
Labor should have been thrown out at least one election before they were, possibly two.
The only mitigating factor was many regarded the tories as worse than the ALP at the time.
‘Always get it right’ eventually – is more accurate.
Looking like 2010 was a 1993 reprieve situation as well and 2013 like 1996.
Sky news currently talking about when Kevin will do his concession speech, etc etc. Are the results already known? Has Murdoch bought the AEC? Makes you wonder.
lizzie:
I’m hoping he’s only saying that because he can’t very well say at this point that he’ll cause a by-election.
Mod Lib
Neilsen found a majority of PUP preferences going to the ALP in Qld. But it may not happen in the booth.
Ah love how that Green vote is staying around the 11 percent mark!