Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

A week out from polling day, Newspoll gives Labor the same two-party preferred vote it had at the corresponding moment of the 1996 campaign.

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest weekly campaign Newspoll has the Coalition leading 54-46, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote, which was up three last week, is this week down four to 33%, with the Coalition down one to 46% and the Greens up one to 10%. It follows that “others”, which was down three in last week’s poll, is this week up four. Tony Abbott has hit the lead as preferred prime minister, Rudd’s 54-40 lead last week turning into a 43-41 deficit. Rudd has also hit a new low on his net personal ratings, his approval down four to 32% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is down one to 41% and up two to 51%. The sample size on the poll is the normal size, in this case 1116.

Morgan has also reported its weekly multi-mode poll, this one from a sample of 3746 respondents contacted by face-to-face, online and SMS surveying, which has the Labor primary vote at 34% (down half a point), the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens unchanged at 11%. This pans out to 52-48 on two-party preferred according to the Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated preferences figure (down from 53-47 last week), and 52.5-47.5 on the more usually favoured previous election preferences method (down from 54-46). It’s interesting to observe that Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding a spike in the “others” vote, up 2.5% to 12%. Morgan particularly spruiks a result of 4% for the Palmer United Party nationally and 7.5% in Queensland, suggesting Clive Palmer’s intensive television advertising might be achieving results.

BludgerTrack has been updated with both sets of results, including the state breakdowns from Morgan, causing the two-party preferred to shift 0.7% in favour of the Coalition, and the Coalition to gain seats on the seat projection in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, while losing one in South Australia.

UPDATE: Finally, Essential Research jumps on board, breaking with its normal form to publish weekly results from throughout the campaign rather than its fortnightly rolling averages. The latest week’s sample has the Coalition leading 53-47, out from 51-49 a week ago (the published 50-50 being down to a stronger result for Labor the previous week), with primary votes on 44% for the Coalition (up one), 35% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,024 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [Tony Abbott should be challenged the way Kevin Rudd was on Q&A tonight.]

    LoL! An hour of shuddering brainlock does not good TV make.

  2. My GOD! Not everything in an election will go your way… your side is going to win. This is an issue this PM campaigned on and it’s gotten two questions in the debates… calm down.

  3. Tony Abbott was a journalist and political staffer before entering Parliament. If he loses (unlikely) he could write columns for The Australian and pop up on The Drum.

  4. I believe the expectation of a Nielsen poll is down to Bob Ellis having blogged this morning: “Why was there no Nielsen this morning, this pre-election Monday, for the first time in world history?” You’d think people would know better by now, but there it is. There was no Nielsen on the pre-election Monday in either 2010 or 2007, and maybe not at any previous election either. It has always looked to me like Nielsen has been commissioned to conduct three polls during the campaign at fortnightly intervals, with the final one to appear on the eve of the election.

  5. It occurred to me that this election will at least put to bed the myth that Gillard was disliked because she was a woman, or a Pom (Welsh), or childless, or an atheist, or living out of wedlock; Rudd is disliked just as much or more and he’s a bloke, born here, with kids, is a believer and lives with his wife. So what do they have in common – they both lead the Labor circus.

  6. Well bugger me with a fishfork… hmmm I’d love to believe that number in QLD… but it does seem to suggest that the expectation is the PUP/KAP votes will move heavily in the ALP’s favour.

  7. Oh and the odds. Why does sportingbet lengthen Labor odds to $16 from $15 when Libs can go no lower than 1.01 before you close betting. So it’s not weight of money or any balancing or new probs, just that they’re happy to attract more of money on ALP, especially from PBers (Fran?)

    I’ve asked before – Kevin B, William .. is this something of a world record in odds on a two horse race in a democracy, one week out?

  8. Wesley Rickard- I don’t think he has used the issue as a vote getter at the 11th hour. Remember he said tonight that he changed his position five months ago before he became prime minster and he was asked he’s thoughts by an audience member.

    Also if LAbor was completely united on it, it would be Labor policy instead of conscience vote. The truth is that while in talking terms of a state like Queensland. While there is strong support in the leafy brisbane suburbs of seats of Brisbane, Moreton and Griffth. There is opposition in some of regional rural areas with seats such as Blair informing the local member they are against it 4 to 1.

    Rudd is very weary that not all potential Labor voters or swinging voters support gay marriage. But the issues is definitely starting to bite in some seats with LNP Teresa Gamabaro changing her stance on the issue.

  9. My guess is that this is indeed the poll Coorey was referring to, since he hinted it was a good one for Labor (despite Mark Kenny’s flatly wrong assertion that the poll shows Rudd has “failed to lift the party’s fortunes in the crucial state of Queensland”).

    [I’ve asked before – Kevin B, William .. is this something of a world record in odds on a two horse race in a democracy, one week out?]

    I’d very much doubt it.

  10. [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 32s
    62% of PUP voters & 55% of KAP voters said they would preference ALP. #Nielsen #ausvotes]

    Wow – I would tv have expected PUP voters to pref ALP so strongly.
    There goes Morgans crazy talk of a 75 style result on the back of PUP votes.

  11. DavidW2035 @DavidW2035

    I got stuck in traffic today and you wouldn’t believe it, bloody asylum seeker boats all over the road, so I bought them #4corners #auspol
    8:47 PM – 2 Sep 2013

  12. A fishy poll award 😛

    2/3 of clive palmers supporters supporting the alp? Its just doesn’t follow.
    However QLD polling has been bizzare. I don’t know whats really going on there.

  13. Zoidlord,

    Interesting preference flows.

    I suspect many PUP voters are Liberal voters that are unhappy with Campbell Newman hence the reason for them then flowing to the ALP

    The Katter vote will mostly come from unhappy ALP and former National Party voters who can’t stand the LNP

    Both could apply to both Katter and Pup

  14. The KAP got 11% in the state election, is it the competition from the PUP or has the KAP done something to upset people?

  15. Lefty- i wouldnt get excited just yet. I still only count 39% for alp and greens- which is probably backwards. PUP supporters may be the reason for the weird polling on the electorate and state levels in qld.

  16. PUP and KAP are the reason the QLD 2PPs are essentially unknowns, yes. But hey, that’s apparently what the PUP said when asked. Surprising tho.

    KAP pref figure is quite believable. Katter’s seat is labor, but for him

  17. Watching QANDA in W.A. at the moment. I have to admit i would find it remarkably interesting to see :monkey: get even a small dose of the questioning that has been tossed at Rudd, particularly to the kind of stabs delivered by Tony Jones.

    Would be hilarious. Peta would have to intervene i think.

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