Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

A week out from polling day, Newspoll gives Labor the same two-party preferred vote it had at the corresponding moment of the 1996 campaign.

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest weekly campaign Newspoll has the Coalition leading 54-46, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote, which was up three last week, is this week down four to 33%, with the Coalition down one to 46% and the Greens up one to 10%. It follows that “others”, which was down three in last week’s poll, is this week up four. Tony Abbott has hit the lead as preferred prime minister, Rudd’s 54-40 lead last week turning into a 43-41 deficit. Rudd has also hit a new low on his net personal ratings, his approval down four to 32% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is down one to 41% and up two to 51%. The sample size on the poll is the normal size, in this case 1116.

Morgan has also reported its weekly multi-mode poll, this one from a sample of 3746 respondents contacted by face-to-face, online and SMS surveying, which has the Labor primary vote at 34% (down half a point), the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens unchanged at 11%. This pans out to 52-48 on two-party preferred according to the Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated preferences figure (down from 53-47 last week), and 52.5-47.5 on the more usually favoured previous election preferences method (down from 54-46). It’s interesting to observe that Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding a spike in the “others” vote, up 2.5% to 12%. Morgan particularly spruiks a result of 4% for the Palmer United Party nationally and 7.5% in Queensland, suggesting Clive Palmer’s intensive television advertising might be achieving results.

BludgerTrack has been updated with both sets of results, including the state breakdowns from Morgan, causing the two-party preferred to shift 0.7% in favour of the Coalition, and the Coalition to gain seats on the seat projection in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, while losing one in South Australia.

UPDATE: Finally, Essential Research jumps on board, breaking with its normal form to publish weekly results from throughout the campaign rather than its fortnightly rolling averages. The latest week’s sample has the Coalition leading 53-47, out from 51-49 a week ago (the published 50-50 being down to a stronger result for Labor the previous week), with primary votes on 44% for the Coalition (up one), 35% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,024 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Media really want Labor out don’t they?

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 17s

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Rudd 41 (-3) Abbott 43 (+3) #ausvotes

  2. This pattern is getting boring – Rudd smashed again in polls, and again, and again. He may yet reach my predicted target of 45/55 by Saturday.

  3. It is going to be interesting to see the difference between this Newspoll and Essential.

    The Leaders of the parties are not acting like its all over.

  4. Anyway, as I was saying.

    I don’t know any male at least who has had a fantastic experience of Viagra.

    The persons who have recounted their experience of it to me speak of a hugely uncomfortable and unrelieved swelling, which may take more than 24 hours to recede.

    Even sex makes no difference, apparently. I am not sure about ejaculation. I suspect it doesn’t happen.

    The Joy of Anticipation. Bit like LNP.

  5. [Eh, it’s not as if the world will end. If it does end, those of us who managed to survive can just vote Abbott out in another 3 years.]
    Perhaps I am being too pessimistic, but I recall they described Joh Bjelke-Petersen as a temporary” premier at the start of his 19 years in office. Of course, Joh was a cynical opportunist right eing politician who layed the religion card whenevre needed. Abbott is not like that….?

  6. Yes well if the Greens and Others have gone up then it will make for some interesting seat results on Saturday. The experts will be watching preference flows.

  7. Hmmm Those of us who said that this whole THLV caper would fall on its face are going to have to fight the urge to say we told you so …

    Really, on this showing, Gillard could have done no worse — and maybe better. The ALP surrendered to Murdoch for nothing — and he used their surrender to him to finish them off. You have to admire the artistry, though it was a little obvious.

  8. Yes the horses are being bridled to the band wagon. By Saturday it will be 55/45 and the seat count will be lucky to have a 5 in front of it.

  9. I remember when Newman as mayor of Brissie was the highest ranking Lib pollie in the land a few years back. Don’t despair you rusted-on Labor LOSERS, it will turn. Your problem is that you can’t accept that the tide turns from your party to the other also, but it’s called democracy. Happy is the man who’s not rusted-on to either but can make a decision each election as he/she sees fit. That’s a really good part of democracy – you should try it some time.

  10. It is going to be interesting to see the difference between this Newspoll and Essential.

    The Leaders of the parties are not acting like its all over.

    Only one has to pretend.

  11. [$1.01 for a Coalition victory? Fair dinkum why would you bother!]


    Which proves my point, the last week of betting is not the most important as many suggested – you’ve missed the boat.

    The most critical period of betting in this election was when the odds were:

    – LNP $1.40
    – ALP $3.00

    The betting was going to turn one way or the other.

    Like I said: 😛

    – Had the ALP firmed in to $2.75, Rudd wins.
    – Had the LNP firmed in to $1.20, Monkey wins.

    I called at the crucial market turning point, back on Aug 11 from memory 😎

    You read it first 😀

  12. The PPM stats will hurt an egotist like KRudd more than any other number. He can handle losing 30 seats but having ‘folks’ rate him as less popular than Tony Abbott could lead him to self harm.

  13. [Yes the horses are being bridled to the band wagon. By Saturday it will be 55/45 and the seat count will be lucky to have a 5 in front of it.]

    Yep. A very plausible scenario. Especially if Labor act like they’ve given up.

    I also note that new signs have been put up here. Basically they are just anti-Rudd “Clean the house!” signs. My guess is they’re trying to redirect voters to focus on their dislike of Rudd, rather than focus on local issues and local candidates (a strategy that was yielding positive results for Labor here) and just sweep the seats.

  14. Okay

    Just completed the week before seat predictions and i suspect that i am on the high side again.

    2 Independent
    55 ALP
    95 LNP

    No change in either SA or WA
    Tassie 2 Lib gains
    Bass, Braddon
    Victoria 4 Lib gains
    Corrangamitte, La Trobe, Deakin, Bendigo
    NSW 12 Lib gains
    New England, Lyne, Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Reid, Parramatta, Dobell, Barton, McMahon, Fowler
    Queensland 5 Lib gains
    Fisher, Moreton, Petrie, Lilley, Capricornia, Rankin

    Of the ALP loses depending on how the last week goes i could see the ALP pulling back about half a dozen seats.

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