GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest weekly campaign Newspoll has the Coalition leading 54-46, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote, which was up three last week, is this week down four to 33%, with the Coalition down one to 46% and the Greens up one to 10%. It follows that “others”, which was down three in last week’s poll, is this week up four. Tony Abbott has hit the lead as preferred prime minister, Rudd’s 54-40 lead last week turning into a 43-41 deficit. Rudd has also hit a new low on his net personal ratings, his approval down four to 32% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is down one to 41% and up two to 51%. The sample size on the poll is the normal size, in this case 1116.
Morgan has also reported its weekly multi-mode poll, this one from a sample of 3746 respondents contacted by face-to-face, online and SMS surveying, which has the Labor primary vote at 34% (down half a point), the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens unchanged at 11%. This pans out to 52-48 on two-party preferred according to the Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated preferences figure (down from 53-47 last week), and 52.5-47.5 on the more usually favoured previous election preferences method (down from 54-46). It’s interesting to observe that Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding a spike in the “others” vote, up 2.5% to 12%. Morgan particularly spruiks a result of 4% for the Palmer United Party nationally and 7.5% in Queensland, suggesting Clive Palmer’s intensive television advertising might be achieving results.
BludgerTrack has been updated with both sets of results, including the state breakdowns from Morgan, causing the two-party preferred to shift 0.7% in favour of the Coalition, and the Coalition to gain seats on the seat projection in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, while losing one in South Australia.
UPDATE: Finally, Essential Research jumps on board, breaking with its normal form to publish weekly results from throughout the campaign rather than its fortnightly rolling averages. The latest week’s sample has the Coalition leading 53-47, out from 51-49 a week ago (the published 50-50 being down to a stronger result for Labor the previous week), with primary votes on 44% for the Coalition (up one), 35% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).
No. Oakeshott. I was referring to men who had as far as I know, according to them, had no need of it. So they said.
Though that Cavaject thing does come into ‘play’ if I could put it like that.
Keating actually had worse personal ratings than this in ’93. He had a -32 netsat and Hewson led him as PPM by 6 points. Difference was, Labor were at 50-50 not 46-54.
Murdock played Labor like a violin. Threw everything he had had Gillard and Labor where suckers and got rid of her.
By Wednesday we’ll see the ALP campaigning on “The country needs a competitive opposition, so don’t kick us too hard” just like they tried in Qld.
BTW – I notice today that Bob Hawke has been called into the fray to ‘save’ one time ‘saviour’ Beattie. Gets funnier by the day.
So we all agree its looking worse that 1996?
I’d say closer to 1975?
A Labor government has come and passed. The innocent can never last. Wake me up when September ends. 🙁
I will say Newspoll’s ability to produce big swings compared to the others has always bugged me.
Fran Barlow Until it gets to 57-43 Rudd will have outperformed Gillard as that was the score when she was ousted. Newspoll does seem to bounce around at the moment though and Galaxy was 53-47 yesterday. Of course when the ALP lost 54-46 in ’96 they won the 2PP in ’98 so events will undoubtedly change again once the LNP gets in and takes responsibility for its cuts
It’ll be 1996-esque –
To be fair to the ALP, when Gillard was removed, she had completely lost control and was spiralling out of control.
It was acknowledged that it would be a gamble but something had to be done.
Might have turned out to be a very bad decision.
Fran -unfortunately this coming catastrophe is unlikely to destroy the cult of Rudd. Already we are hearing that he was recalled too late. TP will assure that the real problem was that some of caucus attacked him publicly 18 months ago while Bemused is already making plans about how he will reform the party as LOTO. I am sure that Geoffrey will tell us it was the right thing to do despite the results because it righted a wrong.
At least I got most of them to agree that a reasonable benchmark against which to measure Rudd is 64 seats – when it comes in about 10 less than that at least we will have some concrete evidence to refute the inevitable “JG would have done worse”.
Facing such religious mania gloating is pointless
We’ve hit the Gillard tipping point figures… At least the figures may have narrowed for Julia…
@Carey/60
It would not have mattered, Look what they doing with Rudd in the Media, they attack the Labor Leaders.
Just as they did with Gillard.
Looks like Rua was mistaken about Nielsen.
frednk
Murdoch was throwinging too much mud. Ashby, Thomson, HSU, and others.
The save the furniture thinking will have been proved right if Labor loses as this poll aggregated with others shows.
SB 58 – “Fran Barlow Until it gets to 57-43 Rudd will have outperformed Gillard as that was the score when she was ousted.”
Except that everyone said that the polls would tighten during the campaign if Labor got behind Gillard. I reckon 55/45 could be deemed Gillardesque.
Labor will be hoping Rudd loses his seat. If they only win 55 seats he’ll only need 20 supporters in caucus to stay as leader.
Gillard would have stuck with fighting on policy and Labor values. She may have lost but it would have been a principled loss.
[By Wednesday we’ll see the ALP campaigning on “The country needs a competitive opposition, so don’t kick us too hard” just like they tried in Qld.]
They do that, they’ll get close to a QLD result. I have said repeatedly that is one of the biggest electoral blunders I have ever witnessed. Basically your telling your supporters to pack it up and you’re telling voters not to bother with you this time. And voters don’t see the opposition as a safeguard against a bad government, they see themselves as it.
We the people all love Rudd and want him to be PM and will vote that way, but I see here that in fact the media is gonna vote him out. hmmmmm
I’d say the polling is about as bad as ’96. But the downwards trajectory we’ve seen and the possibility it will continue until polling day mean it could well end up worse in 2PP terms. Not necessarily in seat terms because ’96 was a poor seat result for the actual 2PP, because of the concentration of Labor marginals in the <5% range.
Irrelevant Poll emanating from Murdochracy. Check Essential tomorrow or leaked UMR polling.
You’re dreaming if you think Rudd will stay on as leader after this loss. The only scenario where that could potentially occur is a Lyn Arnold style, to “steady the ship” but, TBH, after the dramas of the last few years, I think the ALP will be eager to move on ASAP.
The big question?
Could Abbott control the Senate?
Blaming Murdooch overlooks one important fact, well two.
The first being that newspaper sales are well down so less people are buying them
The second is even with the Courier Mail attacking Newman the LNP still look politically safe.
This Government may have done some good things but politically it has been a poor government.
Joe Blow@54
Yikes. If anyone is even thinking of running that line they need to be sacked right now. Never beg the electorate for mercy.
The full set of Newspoll figures:
54-46 2PP
ALP 33, Coalition 46, Greens 10, Others 11
Rudd: Satisfied 32, Dissatisfied 58
Abbott: Satisfied 41, Dissatisfied 51
PPM Rudd 41, Abbott 43
Aug 30-Sep 1. 1116 sample.
Rudd will not be leader.
Let’s see who’s left first!
Did Bruce hawker look after the Queensland defeat…
[Gillard would have stuck with fighting on policy and Labor values. She may have lost but it would have been a principled loss.]
Yep and without all the loss of front benchers as well.
There maybe a stampede effect like inNSW and QLD- it seems to be once you go over 55 it seems to be easier to get a higher 2PP. Undecided voters are high enough to do it. Ehat was the 75 election 2PP?
Greens 10%
POPPYCOCK
You wait and see?
No need for grim.
I look forward to an Abbott PM.
A stark jerk into the real world is well deserved.
By those who would vote for their lesser well being.
Joe Blow If as expected Swan loses his seat, the ALP caucus in the new Parliament will be much more Rudd friendly, with Gillard, Swan, Combet and Smith all no longer in the Parliament. Rudd’s only potential rival is Shorten, but he has no real faction and the kingmaker is rarely the King. If polls show Rudd still most popular ALP leader and he keeps his seat he may well stay. As I said yesterday I expect Jason Clare to be next ALP PM but he is too young and inexperienced to take over straight away
frednk that is hogwash. Gillard was heading for an absolute annihilation. If Murdoch had a plan it was for Labor to dump Rudd in 2010 and Labor jumped. Your claim Gillard could of done better is dubious. Rudd was also only given two months into the job by then the voters had already made up there minds.
I’ll say this though if this swing is replicated on election day. Any thoughts of Rudd staying on, will be out of the question on this result.
The vibe this week supported by the polling has been against the Government, now before anyone says that i have taken News Limited koo aid, i actually have not read the Herald Sun front half in recent weeks.
Any betting agencies running odds on whether Rudd ‘zips’ off to the G20? I reckon its about an even money bet at the moment.
Crickey
I have prescribed Viagra for over 1000 men and not only have I never heard of this complication but it has also never been recorded in the literature.
Mod Lib Predictions 1 week to go:
Coalition start on 75 (with Lyne and New England) and I reckon these 14 are very likely (i.e. Coalition get to 89):
Corangamite
Greenway
La Trobe
Robertson
Lindsay
Banks
Deakin
Reid
Page
Eden-Monaro
Parramatta
Dobell
Bass
Braddon
Then there are likely to be 6 of these 11 (takes it to 95):
Moreton
Petrie
Lilley
Capricornia
Lingiari
Kingsford Smith
McEwen
Hindmarsh
McMahon
Franklin
Lyons
So, the final seat tally would be:
LNP 95
ALP 52
Katter 1
Wilkie 1
Bandt 1
Does Bruce hawker work for the liberal party?
So less than 50 seats, we start saying Rudd actually not only didn’t help but probably exacerbated things? 48 maybe? What’s a fair number? (I know to some, doesn’t matter how badly Rudd does, “Gillard would’ve done worse” but I mean to the realistic people here)
Well done James.
Thank you
No Julia was at $10.00 to win the election.
Rudd got down to $3.00.
Only the short minded could still only think that it was incorrect to change leader.
From the $3.00 it wasn’t meant to be.
Voters now have say on last 3 years of leadershit!
Well, that’s depressing.
No, Kevin Bonham.
Howard tried that. Along the lines of stuff left to do.
[Did Bruce hawker look after the Queensland defeat…]
Yes!
Told ya Mod Lib, 95+ 😛
If Labor lose some questions to be asked and answered.
Party reform recognising the right has too tight a grip.
Going to the right has not done much for popularity.
When Labor got in with a big popular vote they were way left to what they are now.
OC.
Hmmm. That is interesting. Maybe I am not being told the truth.
Regardless of the outcome Rudd has been successful in terms of what was required by his party.
He will save a significant amount of furniture give Former PMJG was leading them to a loss of historic proportions.
Secondly he cops all the blame for the loss leaving the real culprits with the ability to rewrite history to suit their purposes.
Given the debt and deficit and waste theme that has been so telling Wayne Swans performance as a salesman is probably at least as significant as JG’s significant unpopularity.
[So less than 50 seats, we start saying Rudd actually not only didn’t help but probably exacerbated things?]
If 64 is the KPI number then anything less than that, surely?