Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

A week out from polling day, Newspoll gives Labor the same two-party preferred vote it had at the corresponding moment of the 1996 campaign.

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest weekly campaign Newspoll has the Coalition leading 54-46, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote, which was up three last week, is this week down four to 33%, with the Coalition down one to 46% and the Greens up one to 10%. It follows that “others”, which was down three in last week’s poll, is this week up four. Tony Abbott has hit the lead as preferred prime minister, Rudd’s 54-40 lead last week turning into a 43-41 deficit. Rudd has also hit a new low on his net personal ratings, his approval down four to 32% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is down one to 41% and up two to 51%. The sample size on the poll is the normal size, in this case 1116.

Morgan has also reported its weekly multi-mode poll, this one from a sample of 3746 respondents contacted by face-to-face, online and SMS surveying, which has the Labor primary vote at 34% (down half a point), the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens unchanged at 11%. This pans out to 52-48 on two-party preferred according to the Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated preferences figure (down from 53-47 last week), and 52.5-47.5 on the more usually favoured previous election preferences method (down from 54-46). It’s interesting to observe that Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding a spike in the “others” vote, up 2.5% to 12%. Morgan particularly spruiks a result of 4% for the Palmer United Party nationally and 7.5% in Queensland, suggesting Clive Palmer’s intensive television advertising might be achieving results.

BludgerTrack has been updated with both sets of results, including the state breakdowns from Morgan, causing the two-party preferred to shift 0.7% in favour of the Coalition, and the Coalition to gain seats on the seat projection in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, while losing one in South Australia.

UPDATE: Finally, Essential Research jumps on board, breaking with its normal form to publish weekly results from throughout the campaign rather than its fortnightly rolling averages. The latest week’s sample has the Coalition leading 53-47, out from 51-49 a week ago (the published 50-50 being down to a stronger result for Labor the previous week), with primary votes on 44% for the Coalition (up one), 35% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,024 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  3. [Carey Moore
    Posted Monday, September 2, 2013 at 11:04 pm | PERMALINK
    So Rudd genuinely did well tonight? (wasn’t watching)]

    He was absolutely hammered from question 1 (same as the Town Hall- why did you spend 3 years undermining the ALP Prime Minister) followed by questions on his backflipping on multiple issues, not really being a christian etc etc

    By the end he was fighting hard and sticking to his guns and dropping the odd joke or two, so he did OK. All in all, it was a strong performance, but the hostility of the audience initially was quite clear. The ALP hacks gave him a raucous applause at the send off to keep everyone happy with the 50-60 seats on the way.

  6. If he did perform well, he should quickly get onto whatever got him in that mood and be that way for the rest of the week. It won’t stop Abbott from winning the election but it might control the damage and stop the baseball bats from being swung too hard (couldn’t hurt to try).

  7. [So Rudd genuinely did well tonight? (wasn’t watching)]

    He did okay. Muffed the economic questions via contradictory answers, the audience was genuinely hostile but his answer on same sex marriage was outstanding.

  9. Wal
    The Jonestown mass suicides were committed by drinking Kool Aid laced with cyanide (I think)
    To sip Kool Aid refers to delusional people following a messiah figure or belief system to oblivion. I could be unkind and give examples of PBers but I will restrain myself.

  13. Wow… Had no idea- Ive never heard of it.
    Feel sad reading about it.
    I guess most would never heard of the JVP uprisings which killed 1000s.
    Why do people do such things?

  15. I thought the term sipping Kook Aid was an Americanism. I don’t think you can even buy Kool Aid here, but if you can I’ve never seen it.

  16. Tony Abbott should be challenged the way Kevin Rudd was on Q&A tonight. Starting with his fraudulent estimates of the cost of the Government’s NBN ($94 billion by Dodgy Brothers Consulting) and followed up with his various positions on Climate Change, including his apparent abandonment of the Emission Reduction target.

  18. I watched Q&A tonight, to Krudd’s credit he sounded convincing, but pure spin.
    The gay marriage Q by a Christian fundamentalist priest – looked very staged to me, he did not put up an argument ???? Perhaps another ALP plant? Proven that they have done this several times during the campaign !

  19. Twitter impressed on same score:

    [Van Badham ‏@vanbadham 27m

    Rudd redeemed a lot of sins with the superb #bibleslapdown. Nice work, Kev. #qanda

    Ms Gonzo ‏@nobodysmuppet 19m

    @vanbadham @amruss1 That was the best. Courageous for a christian PM and that smug pastor prick from LNP HQ was schooled bigtime.]

  20. [looked very staged to me]

    Yeah, because thats exactly what the ALP campaign would do: knowing there’s ZERO chance someone would recognise him and spill it to the media.

  21. Wesley – time to replace your foil hat. Rudd did well = spin – bigot asks question and PM kills it = plant … don’t think I want to know what you think about 9/11

  24. [Tony Abbott should be challenged the way Kevin Rudd was on Q&A tonight. ]

    Fat chance. He’s school bully, anyone who did that would get punched up behind the toilets later.

    Timid bunch of followers, our journos.

  25. Yes, I forgot to mention in my report to Carey that there was a pastor who started off with a lovely smile and gentle words, as they do, and then went on with the usual homophobia.

    Rudd told him he was wrong in no uncertain terms. Jones offered the questioner a reply, which he used to quote the Bible and asked why Rudd, as a Christian, didn’t follow the word of the Bible. Rudd replied, a little exasperated by now, that if he followed that logic he would be supporting slavery (he said it was in some other book but I think it was actually the book of Timothy that supports slavery) and that we would have had to support the wrong side in the civil war in the USA. The crowd laughed and the questioner sank to his chair quite embarrassed.

    It was quite delicious in fact! :devil:

  28. If you want a bloke who claims travel and accommodation allowances while doing charity work and while telling everyone what a great bloke he is for all his charity work ..Vote Abbott

    If you want a bloke who claims travel and accommodation allowances while promoting his own book – Vote Abbott

    If you want a bloke who says “PPL over this governments dead body” then back flips and introduces one of the worlds most expensive PPL programs – Vote Abbott

    If you want a bloke who says “there will be no new taxes under a government I lead” then back flips and introduces a 1.5% tax increase – Vote Abbott

    If you want a bloke who punches out one of his own front bench – Vote Abbott

    If you want a bloke who hates Queenslanders so much that he campaigned against a levy to assist them – Vote Abbott

    If you want a bloke you punches walls – Vote Abbott

    If you want a bloke who thinks that while having a photograph taken with young female netballers it is appropriate to say “physical contact is a good thing” – Vote Abbott

    If you want a bloke who rates his fellow candidates by sex appeal – Vote Abbott

  30. itsthevibe, I remember when Abbott became leader (before I started posting here) and I was telling everybody “Don’t underestimate him. He has potential conservative populist appeal, like Howard in 1996.” And everybody else laughed it off and said that he was a buffoon and would just ensure Labor get another term in office and will never be PM.

    Well, yeah.

  34. [What a bizarre experience it is to read through this thread now]

    I do miss vera sometimes. Wonder what she’d make of the shenanigans of late.

  35. Mod Lib 1925 and how would Abbott have dealt with that question? Compare and contrast.
    It must be a lonely existence supporting a party that has completely abandoned its small L liberal traditions.

  36. Rudd was on fire tonight- I would of love to see this performance more in the debates. His answers were clear and concise- and as mentioned he delivered a hum dinger to the man in the audience on gay marriage.

    Still alot of undecideds floating around can Rudd pull off an unlikely 11th hour miracle? Tonight he was brilliant!

  37. Rant Rant Rant, god you lefties like listening to your own BS!
    Really, suck up it & take it on the chin & accept that a great majority will be voting against this horrible government come Saturday!

  38. Carey:

    Abbott has had a significant leg up courtesy of Labor’s internal ructions and leadership circus.

    If the govt had been stable, and particularly if Labor was re-elected in 2010 with a majority in their own right, I doubt Abbott would’ve remained as LOTO.

  40. Would that be the same great majority that voted against Howards horrible govt in 07 Wezza?

    Give it time. We’ll be back before you know it, especially with that chump youve got as leader. At least Hockey as treasurer should good for a few laughs.

  41. I’ll be overseas for the election. Will I return to a kinder, more gentle polity?

    Lucky you. As to your question, most unlikely. Abbott will talk the usual crap about governing for all Australians and ‘healing’, but I think he will be a player of wedge politics extraordinaire – divide the community and take the bigger half.

  42. I’ll be overseas for the election. Will I return to a kinder, more gentle polity?

    Lucky you. As to your question, most unlikely. Abbott will talk the usual crap about governing for all Australians and ‘healing’, but I think he will be a player of wedge politics extraordinaire – divide the community and take the bigger half.

  43. Wesley Rickard- I actually thought your post at 1918# had some credibility about Rudd performing well tonight. Until you suggested that Labor put a plant in the audience about gay marriage. Seriously not only is that unproven it’s downright loopy.

    If Labor was to use a plant- wouldn’t they get someone who would ask a Dorothy dixer? How about using some logic before making accusations that are not only not credible but also completely unfounded.

  44. could it be that there is a sleeper going on in this election? under radar … what is above has been so blatant for so long. something running deeper than dross

  45. religion broke surface. o how i would love to hear rudd and abbott on that issue. it is a rudd strength and goes to a songline in our australian culture – church and state. he should stay leader and yes might win.

    he is debater compared with abbott. abbott is a c grade student … he is an unemployable uneducated thug (not political office is not employment is sense of word)

  48. [I’ll be overseas for the election. Will I return to a kinder, more gentle polity?]

    My advice… don’t come back on a boat 🙂

  49. Well I’m hope I am wrong about that David, cause it would be dropping to lowest level ever!!!
    It just looked very sus! He did not put up an argument (the priest)?
    So it was in a sense a Dorothy Dixer, played into Rudd’s hand!!!
    I for one a liberal voter (surprise surprise) that supports gay marriage!
    I’m just angry that Krudd has used this as a vote getter at the 11th hour!

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