Newspoll: 9% swing in Sydney marginals

An 800-sample Newspoll survey supports an impression that Sydney alone stands to put victory beyond Labor’s reach.

Newspoll today brings a poll from a sample of 800 respondents from the five most marginal Labor electorates in Sydney – Greenway (0.9%), Lindsay (1.1%), Banks (1.5%), Reid (2.7%) and Parramatta (4.4%) – which suggests the whole lot will be swept away, and perhaps others besides. Labor’s collective two-party preferred vote across the five seats is put at 43%, which compares with 52.1% at the 2010 election. The primary vote has Labor down from 43.2% to 34%, the Liberals up from 42.8% to 52%, the Greens down from 7.9% to 7% and “others” up from 6.1% to 7%. On two party preferred, Labor is down from 52.1% to 43%. Tony Abbott is also given better personal ratings (47% approval and 46% disapproval) than Kevin Rudd (37% and 55%), and leads 46-40 as preferred prime minister. The margin of error for the poll is about 3.5%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham observes in comments: “These five were all surveyed by Galaxy which averaged 48:52 in the same electorates, via robopolling, with a much larger sample size, last week. It’s not likely voting intention has moved anything like five points in a week. So either someone has a house effect or someone (most likely Newspoll) has an inaccurate sample.”

UPDATE 2 (Galaxy Adelaide poll): The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan poll): Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,483 comments on “Newspoll: 9% swing in Sydney marginals”

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  1. David

    If your post #45 was partly directed at me, I am not comparing the two Labor leaders. I believe that the people behind Labor’s campaigns are simply less effective than those strategising Liberals.

  2. David Agreed. Fredrik Unless Rudd loses by 57-43 he will have done better than Gillard when she was ousted. As for this costings row, outside of political junkies no one will notice, the main headlines are Rolf Harris and Syria, everyone knows the ALP says the Coalition is going to cut more than it says, the Coalition disagrees if are worried about extra cuts you will vote ALP, if you are worried about the deficit you will vote Coalition simple as. The idea that the average swing voter is floating on every detail of the exact percentile cut of the Coalition’s budget and the statements of a few Treasury officials on which version of the accounts you use to measure it is laughable! The only thing that may have swung any votes this week if at all is the debate, which Rudd clearly won whereas the last two were draws. This newspoll of Sydney seats was done before the debate took place and since it was taken from last Friday to Wednesday really adds nothing beyond what has already been said in the national polls and is basically already old news!

  3. Morning.
    Page 6 of today’s Age, in an article by Tim Colebatch and Richard Willingham on micro-parties and the Senate:
    [One industrious electoral addict writing on The Poll Bludger website as ”the truth seeker” recounted that he had carried out 1000 computer simulations of the possible result in Victoria, using slightly different preferences each time. In 53 per cent of them, Mr Fenn won the right’s final seat, in 45 per cent Senator Kroger won, and the other 2 per cent went to a range of small parties.]

    The online version:
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/microparties-may-help-family-first-win-seat-20130829-2stmy.html

  4. I wonder why Turnbull has been photoshopped (rather clumsily) out of the Liberal advert “Choose real Change”.

    And I wonder what he thinks about that.

  5. Morning all. Media bias or not, costingsgate will not help Labor. They need to move on and still focus on the cuts and unfair policies (PPL). I agree with various comments that the arithmetic does not matter that much to voters. Most of Cabinet is bad at arithmetic too, so I suppose that shows we have representative democracy.

    Bruce Hawker should not run another Labor campaign. The play bookm is too old and needs a rewrite.

  6. [Simon Baker
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:39 am | Permalink

    David Agreed. Fredrik Unless Rudd loses by 57-43 he will have done better than Gillard when she was ousted.]

    The press have only started on Rudd. With a bit of support from her party Gillard may have been able to pull it back, there was nothing left to throw.

    As one able body Labor Voter said yesterday; Gillard was a serious politician, Rudd is just a clown, all I could say was yes, but Abbott is a bigger one.

  8. [An Abbott government plans to shut down an independent review of Australian Security Intelligence Organisation security assessments that have condemned almost 50 refugees – including a mother and her three children – to indefinite detention.

    ASIO rulings in relation to the security risk posed by a person in immigration detention will not be reviewable.

    The Coalition has also cut off on any prospect of the refugees being released from immigration detention on special conditions, including wearing monitor bracelets.

    The hardline stance is outlined in response to questions from the Law Council of Australia, with the Coalition declaring: “ASIO rulings in relation to the security risk posed by a person in immigration detention will not be reviewable.”

    The ASIO assessments were of “extreme importance” and a Coalition government would rely on them “absolutely”, the Law Council was told.

    The responses mean a review process set up by Labor in October – that has so far led to two adverse findings being overturned – will be abandoned before retired Federal Court judge Margaret Stone hands down a decision in almost 40 cases.]
    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/coalition-to-axe-reviews-on-refugees-20130829-2stve.html#ixzz2dOgOtHhu

  10. To change the topic to something les depressing, there is an interesting article on the Essendon scandal by sports medicine doctor Peter Brukner.
    [Two things have saved the individual Essendon players from being charged with taking a banned drug. One is the alleged lack of detailed record keeping, which makes it impossible to know which players took which drugs.
    The second is the initial confusion at ASADA about the status of AOD-9604, with conflicting advice given regarding whether it is a banned substance. The players have escaped punishment, but there is no excuse for those involved in administering a banned, non-approved drug to young men.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/why-did-dank-use-aod-on-the-essendon-players-20130828-2sqxe.html#ixzz2dOgLon3S

    If that is true, and Essendon players have only gotten off on a technicality, then James Hird has zero credibility, and Essendon have been lightly punished.

  11. Problem is that the media will never change unless both major parties refuse to accept ownership saturation and influence.

    The Coalition are of course happy as pigs in shit because for the majority of time Murdoch is barracking for them.

    Even Hewson exposing the ‘threat’ from Paul Kelly and LtdNews, which was essentially do as we like or else, seems to have been largely ignored.

    The Coalition are held to ransom just as the ALP, though from differing positions.

    LtdNews is prepared to ignore Rabbott’s promises to the people as they know their influence can model an escape for him because there has been essentially a promise to deliver ?? for Murdoch in exchange for an election win.

  12. Regarding the poll, MOE or not Sydney was always going to sink Labor. At this stage Labor needs to hold enough votes to save the Senate. It is certainly no time to kick the Greens either, as Labor is about to desperately need them.

  14. Seat predictions – let’s see
    Base of 73
    -3 in Victoria
    -3 In Tasmania
    -7 in Western Sydney
    -2 on Central Coast
    -2 on North Coast
    -2 in Queensland (could be a little worse)
    No change in WA, SA and territories.
    Leads us to 54

  15. In the self righteous Liberal statement about their costings, I note the following too
    [With 10 days to go until the election, Labor still has not launched its campaign and still not released the bulk of their costings.]

    Why is that? Why has Labor delayed its campaign launch to so late? I see no benefit in doing so.

    Have a good day all.

  16. Where were the similar headlines when treasury blew a 7-11b hole in the coalitions costings last election?

    To think so many will vote for a change of government based on misinformation and spin

  18. One final comment. It is not PC but I think this comment by a Liberal candidate is correct.
    [Ray King, a former Liverpool police commander standing against Treasurer Chris Bowen in McMahon, claimed the burqa was a ”sign of oppression”, according to one attendee.]
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/burqa-a-sign-of-oppression-20130829-2stn9.html#ixzz2dOl8jAAT

    The burqa, and indeed sharia law, is not in the koran, and is not an essential part of Islam. It is a cultural practice, from a culture that is highly misygonistic.

  20. Rudd slapped Sydney and NSW in the face last week over proposing to close Sydney’s Garden Island Naval Dock Yard in favour of his beloved Brisbane as the new location. A lot of people I know, some of who live in these 5 electorates have altered their voting intention based on Rudd’s QLD vote grab. A lot can happen in a week. Sydneysiders are angry! Perhaps the Newspoll is on the mark.

  21. Fredrik – The latest Essential Research has it 50-50 and they got 2010 almost exactly right, this poll is basically a week old. The Coalition are still probably ahead, but until we see whether the debate has had any impact etc we will not have a more up to date picture, we will not know until after the weekend polls

  22. Andrew

    The whole system has been corrupted by undue media influence.

    And I blame both major parties for not having the guts to do anything about it.

  25. Lets just say that Abbott got exactly what he wanted, enough muddiness around costings to get him through to the election.

    All that’s left is his character. Yes they will bring up the Rudd swearing tape, and the air hostess, but I still think the mad Riley nodding footage is the best example of why Abbott is not fit to be PM. Someone from Rudds side leaked against Gillard in the middle of the campaign FFS, why can’t they go hard on Abbott now?

  28. Yes Dee, and it has never been as bad as this campaign. And given the treatment Gillard got last campaign, that is saying something.

    Why were the leaks so damaging? Cos the media told us they were
    Why didn’t the coalition costings matters? Cos the media told us they didn’t
    Why didn’t the Riley mad nodding matter? Cos the media told us it didn’t
    Why has the government not been good at selling their achievements? Cos the media told us so

  29. Simon Baker
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:39 am | Permalink

    David Agreed. Fredrik Unless Rudd loses by 57-43 he will have done better than Gillard when she was ousted.

    The press have only started on Rudd. With a bit of support from her party Gillard may have been able to pull it back, there was nothing left to throw.

    As one able body Labor Voter said yesterday; Gillard was a serious politician, Rudd is just a clown, all I could say was yes, but Abbott is a bigger one.

    frednk I have not seen a poll that had Labor polling at 44% on two-party preferred that Gillard was getting. Gillard was also going to lose every seat in Queensland. She was going to lose safe Labor seats in Victoria and NSW and in WA we were set to lose every seat. No one is talking in those kind of terms now.

    Just before Gillard was ousted her advisers “plan” was to get Labor’s primary vote up to 37% to win the election. That just showed how hopeless the cause was under Gillard.

  30. I think Rudd will do better than Gillard would have, but can we just call bullshit on all those polls which showed a bigger shift in vote than has transpired?

  32. One more thing about this dodgy poll. I thought western Sydney was all about boats? Difficult to get tougher on boats than no visa policy, so what’s the deal.

    And what happened to those boats? They haven’t slowed after the PNG deal have they? Haven’t been hearing too much about them

  33. [I think Rudd will do better than Gillard would have, but can we just call bullshit on all those polls which showed a bigger shift in vote than has transpired?]

    Remember, Palmer admitted to giving polling companies large sums of money to secure the desired results.

    It gives the rags copy and influences momentum.

    That is not denying the reality the ALP faces but you do start to question which polls, when, etc…. all of which Alberici ignored.

    I would have thought this explosive if Palmer was pressed and could prove his claims.

  34. [ABC has gone full metal partisan

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-27/lies–more-lies-propaganda-and-the-unemployment/4916922

    running conspiracy theories that ABS is cooking data for the govt]

    The report is by the Centre for Independent Studies, a right wing libertarian think tank modeled like the IPA on American right wing think tanks.

    Age had a good article on them a while ago, like the IPA will not disclose their funding.

    Supporters of Centre for Independent Studies projects include Dame Elisabeth Murdoch, J. O. Fairfax and McDonald’s Australia, while BHP, Shell, ICI and Western Mining are among companies that provided funds when the centre started in 1976. Its current subscriber base includes 70 companies and 1200 individuals.

    CENTRE FOR INDEPENDENT STUDIES

    ■2005 REVENUE $2 million
    ■FOUNDED 1976, Sydney based.

    ■Board members include businessman Robert Champion de Crespigny and National Australia Bank chairman Michael Chaney.

    ■Donors have included McDonald’s Australia, Philip Morris, Dame Elisabeth Murdoch, Fairfax.

    ■EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Greg Lindsay. The former mathematics teacher set up the centre from his suburban shed. Influenced by libertarian thinkers such as Murray Rothbard, Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman, Lindsay wanted “to promote the study of liberty”.

    ■Depicted by critics as right wing, the centre supports a philosophy of individual freedom, choice and responsibility. Influenced the Howard Government on welfare changes.

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/thinkers-of-influence/2005/12/09/1134086810518.html?page=fullpage

  35. Dear bludgers,

    re : My poll day predictions

    These are an objective impartial look at things. no bias and not what I want but what will likely hap as I see it. we shall see in a weeks time I know. so I do not wish / want to argue / debate at all on this, as it deals with events as yet to happen. And there is no point arguing over what has not yet happed and may / may not hap. It is insanity to argue if something is correct over future event / s. It is totally illogical. The only reason one would argue over such is pure fantastical emotional delusion, as you just don’t know if correct or not.

    I think the coalition will poll federally 2 PP sep 7 @ 57 and a bit % ( 57.? % ), and the ALP 42.? %.

    As to seats that is tricky but a stab at the highest probabilities judging how trends are going and the fact a lot of voters are yet to decide still. And I think the Rudd factor is over, and the honeymoon from JG’s knifing in the back is diminishing rapidly and things are headed south for the ALP like wildfire the seats are as follows —

    HoR

    Coaliion 120 seats

    ALP 27 seats

    Independents 3 seats

    I put these on record to see how I go. I picked the 120 seats ages ago. The 57.? % to coalition is separate and confident it may be correct. My 57 has nothing to do with this Newspoll by the way. A coincidence, or is it?

    cheers

    John

  36. [An Abbott government plans to shut down an independent review of Australian Security Intelligence Organisation security assessments that have condemned almost 50 refugees – including a mother and her three children – to indefinite detention.]

    GOOD!

    Potential terrorists shouldn’t get to review their negative ASIO assessments, they should be kicked out of the bloody country. They came here illegally by boat, why are we paying for these people to stay?

  38. I’m concerned that the LNP’s proposal to make public schools ‘independent’ includes the curriculum, which means the crazies may want to teach such wonderful ‘science’ as intelligent design and denialism.

    I don’t really want people educated like that staffing our hospitals in the future.

  39. It is worth asking why Annabel Crabb, a justly famous comic author, correspondent and thinker, and, in my experience, a superlative cook, should be so deliriously and mistily and girlishly parrotting the vile Murdochist phrase ‘thought bubble’.

    How, may I ask, does this coinage differ from ‘thought’? It is well known that Isaac Newton in an instant, in the twinkling of an eye, thought of gravity; Fleming of penicillin; Stoppard of a play about Rosencrantz and Guilderstern. It is known that Sondheim wrote, words and music, ‘Send In The Clowns’ in fifteen minutes, Gershwin ‘Our Love Is Here To Stay’ in seven minutes when he had a week to live. It is known Martin Luther King improvised, on the spot, ‘I Have A Dream’ in three.

    Why then should Kevin Rudd, who is quick on his feet in debate and rapid in speech and creative in tendency, be disdained or cursed or derided for conceiving a protected North, and a nourished Ord, if he did, in less than three hours? Or a navy harboured in Townsville in less than two?

    Surely this is what leadership means. On a battlefield, a great general improvises a strategy, like Monash, and wins a World War. On a film set, a great director, like Kubrick, re-imagines a moment in Roman history. On the floor of the House of Commons, a great politician, like Churchill, thinks up the phrase ‘our finest hour’. Or a great President, like Lincoln, writes the Gettysburg Address in ten minutes in a notebook on his knee on a train.

    This is what leadership means. It is dealing in an instant with an emergency. Coming up with a phrase, a plan, a roadmap, a vision, that changes lives, guides nations.

    And Annabel, a once good woman, calls it a ‘thought bubble’.

    The word ‘bubble’ is redundant.

  40. [In Stunning Move UK Parliament Rejects Syria Military Strike, Obama “Willing To Go It Alone”

    Moments ago the UK House of Commons, in a razor thin vote, rejected the Cameron proposal for military action in Syria with a vote 285 to 272.

    Cameron promptly said he would respect the will of the House of Commons and UK Defense Secretary Phillip Hammond confirmed there would be no UK military intervention in Syria. ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-29/uk-rejects-syria-military-strike-obama-willing-go-it-alone

  42. only one in ninety phone calls is completed, and the respondents are, on average, over sixty-five.

    This is supported by this morning’s Newspoll, which took six days to get through to 800 respondents in Parramatta, Reid, Banks, Lindsay and Greenway. This means 160 voters in each electorate, a statistically worthless sample (it should be 800 in each), many in their eighties, had once voted for Menzies, or eight times voted for Menzies, and were still of the same cast of mind.

    This is not valuable information. No mobiles were rung, and perhaps no more than twenty people under thirty-five interviewed. The figures were then ‘adjusted’. I’ll bet they were.

  44. I advise people to stop listening to the media on the state of the campaign. The Age headline is a shocker, and the story total rubbish.

    And you can laugh at anyone who thinks what we need now is a bit more of that ‘moving foward’ vibe from 2010. Lol.

    The cuts theme is getting through. Rudd will do as well as he was ever going to, and better then Gillard

    My predictions are already out..

  45. Simon Baker, Many of those, like myself, who watched last weeks leaders debate believe Tony Abbott won the debate; over 5000 viewers on Chanel 7s worm awarded the debate to Tony Abbott. Sevens Mark Riley called it a draw! As to the supposed ‘undecided’ voters at the debate; how many were left wing hacks who infiltrated Galaxy’s selection process? Galaxy got caught out in Brisbane a week earlier when a well known left winger was outed after the debate.

  46. Morning all

    From the Geek

    [To be fair to Murdoch and News Corp., the MSM are a in it together, writing a big blank cheque for LNP. MSM has long ago abandoned its role]

    Yep.

  47. Socrates

    Both points are well-established:

    (1) No-one, except possibly Dank, knew or knows which Essendon player was injected with what. And Dank, has repeatedly declared that as far as he knows everyone, including himself, is 100% innocent. He is not talking to anyone except the MSM. Perhaps not entirely helpfully, he publicly offered to help Hird in his defence against the AFL charges.

    (2) ASADA may have given mixed messages on AOD9604.

    You are quite right about the disjunct between Hird whinging publicly about having to give up ‘the fight’ for the good of the club on the one hand, and the actual and/or potential impacts on players’ health, careers and finances on the other. Then there is the impact on AFL fans more generally.

    BUT

    WADA has consistently stated that AOD9604 is banned. Simple as that. Jobe Watson has publicly stated that he was injected with it.

    Watch that space.

    Incidentally, a Canberra Raider’s player has been stood down. He may get up to two years for taking a banned peptide and an extra two for trafficking same to other players.

    IMHO, it may well be that Cronulla will be unable to field an A grade team by the time ASADA has finished with the Sharks.

  48. Guytaur

    What is normal, normal process is being ignored.

    It’s the momentum of misinformation.

    Deliberate misinterpretation is being accepted and regurgitated with frenzied delight.

    As Shorten said this morning.

    The Coalition not revealing costings is being reported as a virtue whilst hammering the ALP over normal process as something dodgy.

  49. Boerwar

    I heard reporter from the Daily La La this morning. He said that the ASADA investigation should wrap up in October. Apparently, the investigation started back in 2011 due to some tip offs. ASADA then went to the Aust Crimes Commission and that is when they conducted their report which was handed down in February. The common denominator is drum roll……Stephen Dank

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