ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49

An automated phone poll conducted today supports the broader polling picture of ongoing drift away from Labor, although a new Galaxy poll is somewhat more hopeful for them.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 up from 52-48 last week, from primary votes of 36.9% for Labor (down 0.6%), 46.9% for the Coalition (up 1.2%) and 8.9 for the Greens (down 0.7%). On the all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47, up from 50.9-49.1 in the poll conducted on Sunday immediately after the election was called.

UPDATE: And now another Galaxy poll, this time national, and slightly better for Labor than other recent results. The Labor primary vote is at 38%, down two on the last national Galaxy result of a fortnight ago, with the Coalition and the Greens each up one to 45% and 10%. On two-party preferred the Coalition leads 51-49, compared with 50-50 last time. Kevin Rudd maintains a handy 47-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, although it’s down from 51-34. There are also questions on the respective leaders’ greatest weaknesses which you can see here. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1002.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,822 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49”

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  1. I purposely did not see the debate but have read some commentary and seen 5 news reports on it, as was my plan.

    Ch 9, 10, ABC and SBS called it for Rudd, whilst Ch 7 and Sky were for Abbott (although PvO called it for Rudd narrowly).

    Not sure what all the hooha on here is about biased commentary.

    It’s irrelevant anyway. It’s just about gone.

  2. Sean Tisme

    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Sam Dastayari… the guy Eddie Obeid reckons wore the carpet out in his office and who is the NSW State Executive has won Senate Pre-selection.

    Yet Rudd does nothing. Yet Rudd told us he’s taken over NSW Labor. Is Sam Dastayari one of the faceless men pulling Rudd’s strings and when will the stench of corruption stop in Labor?
    ———————————————————
    And the Liberals are so pure….

    Mr Sinodinos was a director of AWH, which ICAC has heard is an Obeid-related company.

    In early 2012 the NSW Coalition government awarded AWH a 25-year water infrastructure deal without any tenders. Corporate records show that Mr Sinodinos was a director of AWH from November 2008 until November 2011.

    Towke is also a long-serving member of the Liberal Party. In July 2007 he won preselection for the then safe federal Liberal seat of Cook. He was set to replace the outgoing member, Bruce Baird. The contest attracted a large field, including Paul Fletcher, who recently won Liberal preselection for Bradfield (vacated by the former Liberal leader Brendan Nelson), and a former state director of the NSW Liberal party, Scott Morrison.

    Towke won easily. On the first ballot, he polled 10 times as many votes as Morrison, 82 votes to 8, who was eliminated in the first round. His victory meant that a Lebanese Australian would represent the Liberal Party in the seat where the Cronulla riot and revenge raids had taken place 18 months earlier, in December 2005. ”The campaign against me started four days after preselection,” Towke said.

    Two senior people within the Liberal Party, whose identity is known to a widening circle within the party, went through Towke’s nomination papers to find every possible discrepancy and weakness. Then they started calling selected journalists to tell them Towke was a liar. The first story appeared in The Daily Telegraph on July 18, 2007, under the headline, ”Liberal ballot scandal in Howard’s backyard.” Three days later, on July 21, a second story appeared in the Telegraph: ”Towke future on hold.” The next day, in The Sunday Telegraph, a third story: ”Party split as Liberal candidate faces jail.”

    ”That was the story that sent my mother to hospital,” Towke told me.

  3. Hey guys, what the heck do you think is going on here.

    Its titled “Rudd hammers Abbott on costings” and the text goes..

    [KEVIN Rudd used his first televised encounter of the 2013 election campaign with Tony Abbott to hammer the Coalition over a “continued policy of evasion” on election costings but the Opposition Leader declared voters deserved more than a “cheap scare campaign”.]

    Yet, the URL goes “abbott-lead-over-rudd-strengthens.. ”

    And at the top is a video about the polls.

    Confused? Has been edited? What?

  4. [And before you say building out into the sea is impossible better ask the Japanese on that one. ]

    Lets see a CBA. Where is the money coming from?

    But tories just sell stuff. They don’t build.

    They apposed the Snowy Mountains Scheme.

  5. [I thought Rudd won too, but not by so much that it will still matter 48 hours from now.]

    Agreed. I think quite a bit of the froth and bubble from the media will now be about how the next debates occur or not, with both sides claiming that the others reluctance to commit to their proposed formats shows that they actually lost the first debate and are running away. Suspect :monkey: will come off worse in that since he has a record of running from pressers and questions the ALP can exploit.

  6. AA:

    Of course it will be householders who wind up paying polluters to reduce their carbon emissions, not the other way around as it is under Labor.

  7. Mod Lib

    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

    I think they should build the second airport underground where it wont be so noisy
    ————————————————————
    careful, that could be on Seans agenda….either that or “all at sea”.

  8. [I think they should build the second airport underground where it wont be so noisy]

    I know you’re just trying to be silly Mod Lib, but there is actually one place near Sydney you can build an airport and it will cast a noise footprint on almost zero dwellings.

  9. ta William 1688 … Was on the look out for early XTC vinyl, but I tell you it’s as rare as hen’s teeth these days.

    Did pick up though a first rate J Richman’s Rock n Roll with the Modern Lovers album ….. The one with Ice Cream Man …. Possibly the most under-rated song of the 20th century…

  10. [ta William 1688 … Was on the look out for early XTC vinyl, but I tell you it’s as rare as hen’s teeth these days. ]

    Not in my house. Perhaps that Ten Feet Tall flexi-disc of mine is actually worth something.

  11. Speaking as someone who has no dog in this tussle and who listened carefully to Newsradio rather than watching TV…

    I thought PMKR won it handily. Abbott failed to make use of his allotted time at the start and finish and appeared to expanding out his commentary. By comparison, PMKR used every second he had and some that he didn’t to squeeze in more material.

    In questioning PMKR was well structured and paced and spoke to Abbott’s weaknesses — his blackhole, climate change scepticism and the barrier reef, the GST, workforces after Abbott affirmed the role played by nurses. About the only missed opportunity was PMKR not going directly to challenge on the conscience vote until Abbott didn’t need to respond, He even showed Abbott was lying on the permit price despite Speers trying to shut him down before answering on boats. Oh and he missed pointing out that the LNP had supported dismantling the Pacific Solution.

    Abbott was purely reactive and spoke from the crib sheet and not convincingly either. He rambled and offered no clear case for turning out the regime. It really was the plaintive “we can’t afford 3 more years like the last 6” but absent a well founded claim that he could do better nor any of his claims of chaos, a non-committed would wonder why Abbott should be PM.

    So for me, this wasn’t close.

  12. China are moving to pricing carbon, why didn’t Rudd hammer that important point.

    The world moving to price carbon yet Abbott doing the opposite 😯

  13. Taken from Comments in the Guardian.

    That Rupert Murdoch’s life has turned into a tabloid tale is … well, more justice than anyone might reasonably ever wish for.

    He’s on his way to looking like the louche, out-of-control, sex-crazed older men (at 82, he pushes that envelope) who are so joyfully featured in his tabloid properties, the New York Post and The Sun in London.

    Read on…

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/wolff/2013/08/05/michael-wolff-murdoch-becomes-tabloid-subject/2621141/

  14. Meaningless though it is, the SMH readers’ poll gives Abbott 63% to Rudd’s 30%. Odd too, because when I looked a little earlier Rudd was ahead. I guess Abbott’s Twitter followers have moved as a swarm of locusts on the SMH, amongst other targets.

  15. [ About the only missed opportunity was PMKR not going directly to challenge on the conscience vote until Abbott didn’t need to respond]

    Fran,

    Rudd also missed an opportunity to bring Abbott to heel over his lies regarding the NBN.

    Abbott claimed the NBN was over budget. Its not. Abbott claimed indirectly the $94B figure the Liberals invented as the cost of the NBN.

    Rudd should have very quickly said “these figures are simply wrong. NBNco is on budget and the figures being used by Abbott are as real as their 2010 election costings”

  16. [Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 10:03 pm | PERMALINK
    Looks like about $40k has been wagered on Betfair in the last 3 hours…..is that a lot or not much, who knows?]

    the ASX turns over about $4,000,000,000 each day. Watch the betting there is you want to know what is going on, not the pissant online bookies.

    $40k is a fraction of what 1 tobacco company or big miner donates to the Liberal Party each year. Why not game the bookies, just like Tony Abbott’s Facebook likes and Twitter followers were bought to give that momentum impression.

  17. Perhaps instead of cutting company tax by 1.5% and reducing revenue to increase productivity etc it would be better to cut it by 3.0% and reduction in revenue and increased productivity could fund an airport for Sydney in the ocean.

    Why do things in half measures??

  18. [ Why not game the bookies, just like Tony Abbott’s Facebook likes and Twitter followers were bought to give that momentum impression. ]

    For that matter, why wouldn’t the online betting companies themselves be willing to drop 40k or so (untraceably, no doubt), to ensure 100k or so of free advertising and comment on blogs like this?

  19. sprocket_

    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 10:15 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 10:03 pm | PERMALINK

    just like Tony Abbott’s Facebook likes and Twitter followers were bought to give that momentum impression.
    ——————————————————-

    all those paid for Stalkbook likes were an early birthday present for Tony from Rupert

  20. I wonder how Sean, or any devoted Liberal feels about Turnbull promising to borrow 30 billion dollars (just like Labor are doing) and “invest” it in NBNco (just as Labor are doing) and then direct NBNco to spend that money on copper and create something that is worth nothing in 5 years, when it could have been invested on future proof fibre technology that will continue to be profitable for decades to come.

    I just don’t know if the Lib fan boys can even conceive the Liberals would do something that stupid. some don’t even seem to think that Turnbull is indeed, promising to borrow 30 billion dollars and put it into a GBE.

  21. I wonder how Sean, or any devoted Liberal feels about Turnbull promising to borrow 30 billion dollars (just like Labor are doing) and “invest” it in NBNco (just as Labor are doing) and then direct NBNco to spend that money on copper and create something that is worth nothing in 5 years, when it could have been invested on future proof fibre technology that will continue to be profitable for decades to come.

    I just don’t know if the Lib fan boys can even conceive the Liberals would do something that stupid. some don’t even seem to think that Turnbull is indeed, promising to borrow 30 billion dollars and put it into a GBE.

  22. [Why not game the bookies, just like Tony Abbott’s Facebook likes and Twitter followers were bought to give that momentum impression. ]

    I don’t think Labor has money to just throw away on bookies!

  23. rummel@1734

    I think they should build the next sydney airport on stilts over Lake George…..

    I think they should build the next Sydney airport on Abbott’s ever-expanding bald spot. Should be able to land a 787 on that baby with room to spare!

  24. Carey Moore

    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    Yes Sean, reclaiming land from the sea is a great option, yet the NBN is apparently beyond our means…
    ———————————————————

    copper NBN is well within our means despite Turnbull investing his own money in the French FTTH

  25. Oakeshott Country@1653

    TP
    You have been telling us for years how great a campaigner Rudd is and this will be Labor’s salvation.

    Well guess what – tonight shows what a delusion this was.

    Rubbish driven by your irrational Rudd hatred.

    Only the obviously biased 7 worm had Rudd not a clear winner.

    Gillard would not have done near as well.

  26. An Airport at or near Lake George not a bad idea….put it about an hour away from Sydney towards Canberra and Wollongong and put a fast train between Sydney and Canberra (plus Brisbane and Melbourne).

  27. cud chewer

    Yes, but that’s the format that Abbott was protected.

    We could have had a knockout BUT Speers kept pulling the fighters apart.

    That’s why Rudd won but only 54/46 I’d score it.

  28. The main reason I thought Rudd won is that he was made to look prime ministerial – Abbott had no opening to remind people that he’s only been in the job for a couple of weeks, with all that that entails. Abbott didn’t do badly though, although his laughter at Rudd near the end was the one jarringly false note of the evening. It brought back memories of the health policy debate he had with Rudd at the NPC in early 2010, if anyone still remembers it. It was Rudd’s attempt to recover the initiative as things were going off the rails for him, and it appeared to work. Abbott arrived over-confident and without any policy work of his own to sell, and responded too aggressively as it became clear that the debate was going against him.

    Abbott did have a good line with “if the mining boom is over it’s because the government has killed it”, which I think is most of the reason Laurie Oakes called the debate for him. However, I think it also shows that Laurie’s been working in television too long. Grabs like that are indeed what wins you the nightly news battle, but debate viewers are actually paying attention.

  29. There was an article I read recently that showed the bookies are full of crap when it comes to poll odds.
    It showed you can’t put big money on the coalition with these odds. If they are such a sure thing why can’t somebody put 50,000 on them to win. Simple fact is you can’t.

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