ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49

An automated phone poll conducted today supports the broader polling picture of ongoing drift away from Labor, although a new Galaxy poll is somewhat more hopeful for them.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 up from 52-48 last week, from primary votes of 36.9% for Labor (down 0.6%), 46.9% for the Coalition (up 1.2%) and 8.9 for the Greens (down 0.7%). On the all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47, up from 50.9-49.1 in the poll conducted on Sunday immediately after the election was called.

UPDATE: And now another Galaxy poll, this time national, and slightly better for Labor than other recent results. The Labor primary vote is at 38%, down two on the last national Galaxy result of a fortnight ago, with the Coalition and the Greens each up one to 45% and 10%. On two-party preferred the Coalition leads 51-49, compared with 50-50 last time. Kevin Rudd maintains a handy 47-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, although it’s down from 51-34. There are also questions on the respective leaders’ greatest weaknesses which you can see here. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1002.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,822 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49”

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  1. [Abbott is a C-grader trying to play in League and survives by being protected by the Referees and commentators in the stands.]

    Agreed. But how to get the average punter to see this?

  2. Rudd was superior with content most of the time, but spoiled it a bit with a couple of waffly answers and the inability to land a killer blow.

    Abbott was exposed when failed to answer some questions but maintained a presence and didn’t stuff up.

  3. TP
    You have been telling us for years how great a campaigner Rudd is and this will be Labor’s salvation.

    Well guess what – tonight shows what a delusion this was.

  4. [If you start resurrecting “The Fellowship” (or whatever it was called). then I for one am out of here!

    by Player One on Aug 11, 2013 at 9:39 pm]

    For this insolence, The Fellowship has demoted Player One from the status of dwarf, which was achieved on 25th March 2013, down to Hobbit.

  5. [Gorilla
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 9:37 pm | PERMALINK
    Evening bludgers. I’ve only been lurking since Ruddstoration. Partly out of disappointment, mainly because I had nothing to say that hadn’t been said.]

    Welcome Gorilla.

  6. My favorite quote from LOTR..

    [Hoom, hum, I have not troubled about the Great Wars’, said Treebeard; ‘they mostly concern Elves and Men. That is the business of Wizards: Wizards are always troubled about the future. I do not like worrying about the future. I am not altogether on anybody’s side, because nobody is altogether on my side]

  7. That quote is quite appropriate in current Oz economics: Bilbo said it at his eleventy-first birthday party.

  8. Gorilla:

    I don’t know that i’m waiting for a killer blow, more for something more inspiring than the ho hum we’ve had so far. 🙁

  9. [TP
    You have been telling us for years how great a campaigner Rudd is and this will be Labor’s salvation.

    Well guess what – tonight shows what a delusion this was.]

    Might I suggest analgesic suppositories?

  10. TT

    ‘Abbott was exposed when failed to answer some questions but MAINTAINED A PRESENCE…

    You mean he didn’t cut and run.

  11. mick

    no rudd sorry. not interested in your slogans. yes he could have been tougher, but steady as goes is also big virtue when surrounded by bullies like yourself perhaps. it is good to exemplify formal steady debate for a change and not feed into the maniacal mouthing of abbott for a change. i agree with overall station assessments for what worth – rudd 55+

  12. At times, being a Labor supporter is like being an Australian fan during this Ashes series.

    It’s depressing to watch them fumble out there, while the other side make ease of it. The other side are far from perfect and make mistakes but never have to pay for it.

    And then, occasionally, you get a glimmer of hope. The stars seem to start to align for your side, then they drop the ball completely. That’s the part that stings the most.

    Of course, you have your blind supporters who will always believe they’re in a winning position and yell at the commentators when they’re saying the match is starting to escape their side.

    In the end, there’s either a sweet victory or another defeat. In case of victory, it warrants a two finger flip off to the media who called it otherwise. In (the more likely) case of defeat, we shrug our shoulders and say “next time!” – an optimism that fades quickly when you see the clowns running the team still making the same mistakes and favouring the same non-performers.

  13. Thanks sprocket.

    Bloody Sky news are a disgrace.

    And I’m pissed off with Speers, he had a shocker.

    Rudd had to refer to a previous question that needed to be challenged from the Abbott lies AND Abbott got away with his NBN claims and the percentage of people that found their way back to Australia after being sent to Nauru.

    Not good enough from Speers and the Sydney airport Q was stupid, Rudd answered it correctly.

  14. Would have thought 2nd Sydney airport would have been an easy reply for rudd.

    Hawke/ keating bought land at Badger Creek and it was howard who stopped it going ahead.

    The libs supported and voted for the dismantling of howards pacific solution at both senate committee level, unanimously and in the parliament.

    Why not say so tonight and shove it up abboott ??

    Tonight was the time to say it!

  15. T.P 1643

    ‘Everyone knows Abbott is a hopeless debater and knows very little about any policy subject, even his own’.

    Not everyone knows that. A five minute listen in on Sky prior to the debate had Speers and coy lauding his debating skills, fiercely forged in his uni days.

  16. Rudd was over the issues far better, but Abbott did nothing to upset his followers.

    No idea what swining voters thought. Who are they, anyway? Probably not the sort of people who watch debates.

  17. daviddw
    [RuddV2 doesn’t have the presence of RuddV1.]
    True – he’s 6 years older and not exactly a novel new face like he was first time round. I’m hopelessly biased because of my intense dislike of Gillard, Rudd and the Greens but I think winning is and always was Mission Impossible for Rudd and he wasn’t put in again for that purpose. However nobody is reminding him of that and it’s likely he’ll burn some of the furniture that he was supposed to save in his zeal to be recrowned.

  18. Rudd probably saw in Benson’s annoyingly Sydney-centric question an opportunity to get the point across that he, unlike Benson, did in fact care about the other 80% of the country. Although I’m not sure how good an idea that was.

  19. What about when Abbott pointed straight to the TV screen to talk to us?

    You’d could nearly die of larfter 😆

    A monkey, that’s what the Libs have put forward as leader, a monkey!

  20. Sam Dastayari… the guy Eddie Obeid reckons wore the carpet out in his office and who is the NSW State Executive has won Senate Pre-selection.

    Yet Rudd does nothing. Yet Rudd told us he’s taken over NSW Labor. Is Sam Dastayari one of the faceless men pulling Rudd’s strings and when will the stench of corruption stop in Labor?

  21. Box Hill Record Fair in Melbourne today …

    No mention of politics at all but much entertaining vinyl banter. Lots of 20 somethings buying 60s and 70s stuff. “Lots of ‘Got any Hawkwind or Yes queries?’….. sigh ….

    Picked up an excellent copy of The Who Live at Leeds and sundry other gems.

    Learnt from one dealer the reason for some vinyl covers having a section cut out … A tax breakscam byAmerican dealers who did it deliberately to excess stock and so claimed the goods as damaged and then shipped them overseas for sale.

  22. [A monkey, that’s what the Libs have put forward as leader, a monkey!

    by Centre on Aug 11, 2013 at 9:51 pm]

    …and beating your guy, which says something about the quality of the current ALP, I guess, doesn’t it?

  23. [Why not say so tonight and shove it up abboott ?? ]

    Direct Action was another opportunity to hammer home the reckless spending of the coalition. Even Speers said it alone would cost billions of taxpayer dollars.

  24. This week should be all about the Coalition’s costings while the bubble conservatives will keep going on about whether Rudd used notes during the debate

  25. thanks William for the Live Debate Thread.

    I hold the view that it showed more about what political bent people are as to which channels they watch.

    One channel I was watching had the “worm” showing Abbott scoring high even when all he was doing was breathing and I think Peta told me he had to breath.

    The other channel had Rudd at 61% and Abbott at 39%.

    I don’t think this debate made any difference to people’s voting, this debate was the not about swinging voters but the results were based on who had the most “rusted ons” watching which channel etc

  26. William, I thought the point Rudd was trying to make was that a decision such as a second Sydney airport must follow the proper processes before a final decision is made.

    I think Rudd won, but not convincingly enough, I don’t think the format was designed for any knockout blow.

  27. confessions

    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    Why not say so tonight and shove it up abboott ??

    Direct Action was another opportunity to hammer home the reckless spending of the coalition. Even Speers said it alone would cost billions of taxpayer dollars.
    —————————————————–

    without any idea of what services will be cut to fund the program.

    it wont be business taxes it will be the hip pocket of the “average” punter

  28. [Rudd probably saw in Benson’s annoyingly Sydney-centric question an opportunity to get the point across that he, unlike Benson, did in fact care about the other 80% of the country. Although I’m not sure how good an idea that was.]

    While I was thinking it and agreed with it, considering Rudd can’t afford to piss off Sydney voters, it probably was ill-advised. Fortunately, being in a debate, it probably won’t be a problem but had it done it on the road in the campaign, that would be a big blunder (and no, I don’t think those annoyed would be compensated with those who appreciate the sentiment.)

  29. [William, I thought the point Rudd was trying to make was that a decision such as a second Sydney airport must follow the proper processes before a final decision is made.]

    Translation: Lets piss fart around and do nothing for another 6 years

    Personally I reckon the second Sydney airport should be built out at sea next to the current one. Turn one into a domestic airport and the other into an International terminal.

    And before you say building out into the sea is impossible better ask the Japanese on that one.

  30. [Sam Dastayari… the guy Eddie Obeid reckons wore the carpet out in his office and who is the NSW State Executive has won Senate Pre-selection.

    Yet Rudd does nothing. Yet Rudd told us he’s taken over NSW Labor. Is Sam Dastayari one of the faceless men pulling Rudd’s strings and when will the stench of corruption stop in Labor?]

    In a rare moment, I actually agree with you there Sean.

  31. Rossmore more have you heard The Who Live At Hull? It’s the show before Live at Leeds and believe it or not is even better.

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