ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49

An automated phone poll conducted today supports the broader polling picture of ongoing drift away from Labor, although a new Galaxy poll is somewhat more hopeful for them.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 up from 52-48 last week, from primary votes of 36.9% for Labor (down 0.6%), 46.9% for the Coalition (up 1.2%) and 8.9 for the Greens (down 0.7%). On the all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47, up from 50.9-49.1 in the poll conducted on Sunday immediately after the election was called.

UPDATE: And now another Galaxy poll, this time national, and slightly better for Labor than other recent results. The Labor primary vote is at 38%, down two on the last national Galaxy result of a fortnight ago, with the Coalition and the Greens each up one to 45% and 10%. On two-party preferred the Coalition leads 51-49, compared with 50-50 last time. Kevin Rudd maintains a handy 47-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, although it’s down from 51-34. There are also questions on the respective leaders’ greatest weaknesses which you can see here. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1002.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,822 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49”

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  2. [An Airport at or near Lake George not a bad idea]

    Built on pontoons? 🙂

    Seriously Mod Lib you are missing a much closer site. And one that meets every requirement you can think of. A LOT of room, and miles from anyone.

  4. The other jarring note for Abbott in the debate was how old, stale and repetitive his mantra has become.
    In our household we were literally quoting him before he spoke the words – we will stop the boats, there is nothing wrong with this country that a good govt can’t fix, we will axe the carbon and mining tax and so on. It was also at this point that the worm turned south.
    People are sick of his repetitive bull.

  5. #Galaxy Poll QLD Preferred Premier: Newman LNP 54 (-1) Palaszczuk ALP 31 (+2) #qldpol #auspol
    Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 11m
    #Galaxy Poll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: LNP 57 (0) ALP 43 (0) #qldpol #auspol

  6. William,

    I think Rudd won because I don’t give a toss for how they looked or how “effective the rhetoric” was. What I saw was Rudd having the facts to back him up and Abbott carelessly tossing of untruths.

    Rudd won convincingly in terms of hard fact and consistent well thought out policy.

    Now, will that matter in punterland? I don’t know. But I wouldn’t totally dismiss it just now.

  8. William is right about Abbott’s laughter – totally out of place. I thought it showed he was nervous and unsure what to say.

  12. confessions

    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    AA:

    Of course it will be householders who wind up paying polluters to reduce their carbon emissions, not the other way around as it is under Labor.
    —————————————————-

    I’ve been pushing that wheelbarrow for a looonngg time.

    The money to fund carbon reduction has to come from somewhere and that “somewhere” will always be the wallet of the taxpayer

  14. William @1747

    I think Rudd put Abbott on the defensive at the start. Abbott had difficulty getting the lines out with the same impact that he’s had previously. He had to resort to Gillard at one point.

    At the end, Abbott was starting to get his points across well but it was a bit forced.

    Rudd did a decent job. Could’ve done better but it was good enough

  16. [ The money to fund carbon reduction has to come from somewhere and that “somewhere” will always be the wallet of the taxpayer ]

    Exactly. Which is why we need the most cost effective carbon pricing mechanism, not some expensive flim-flam policy like “Direct Action” – which is just as expensive, and makes it look like you’re doing something – but which ultimately doesn’t achieve diddly squat.

  17. You have all missed the biggest story of all …….. Abbott was wearing a grey tie not a blue one.

    NEITHER OF THEM WAS WEARING A BLUE TIE!!!!

    What the? :devil:

  18. cud chewer

    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    An Airport at or near Lake George not a bad idea

    Built on pontoons? 🙂

    Seriously Mod Lib you are missing a much closer site. And one that meets every requirement you can think of. A LOT of room, and miles from anyone.
    —————————————————

    plenty of room in WA —-hahhahha

  19. The laughter and the way he pointed at the viewers really shows Abbott is a misfit for PM.

    Still I don’t think too many are going to change their vote after that debate.

  20. rudd maintained a steady formal informative style that any debate in any other western democracy except one infected by the teenager uninformed show off back of classroom antics by abbott would be valued. it is good to see some controlled debate for a change in this country, despite abbott failed attempts to turn it into a boxing match. i would not let that cheezy sleezy ingratiating clown near a populist town hall meeting esp after manipulation shown by one station tonight … more formal ‘insights’ type studio form with representative audience perhaps at best … i will say my prayers again for abbott to be trod on

  21. [Abbott claimed the NBN was over budget. Its not. Abbott claimed indirectly the $94B figure the Liberals invented as the cost of the NBN.

    Rudd should have very quickly said “these figures are simply wrong. NBNco is on budget and the figures being used by Abbott are as real as their 2010 election costings”]
    It is hard. If you dwell too much on Abbott’s lies then it just makes you sound too argumentative

    I thought Rudd did well, but not well enough to change the election result.

  23. [I’ve been pushing that wheelbarrow for a looonngg time.]

    Same same.

    [Abbott was wearing a grey tie not a blue one.]

    From memory it was the same light blue tie he’s been wearing for ages now.

  24. Staying on message is seen as a strength normally. There must come a time, however, when it becomes a liability, when it’s been repeated over and over so many times the audience realises it’s being conned with rehearsed, pre-digested, focus-group tested waffle.

  28. perhaps rudd went too early on non conflict good guy technique weeks ago … some bad cop ads (not featuring hom) might be needed to balance the mafia tactics of oppositon and murdoch who are not dressing themselves up as clean cut positive reasonable types in ads after fours years of destroying public democracy in this country

  31. William …. I will look out for the Go 2 vinyl … But there’s barely any XTC stuff at the record fairs. Were you their only Oz fan?

  32. One more thought on the debate

    I felt Rudd inserted an uncertainty element on Abbott and the economy

    We’ll see how that works out. Personally, I don’t think the debate influences much unless one candidate really screws up and neither did

  35. By the way, the Nine News Update before mentioned the debates and very much gave it the minimal dry coverage I anticipated. Certainly didn’t highlight any errors or anything.

  36. Centre 1769

    ‘The laughter and the way he pointed at the viewers really shows Abbott is a misfit for PM’.

    I heard the sour laughter and commented on it.

    I was not watching at that moment. Pointing at the viewers sounds exactly as he did in the Launceston get together.

    The questioner was going through his spiel. Tony looked to a part of the audience, smirking slightly, as if to invite their patience and contempt in hearing out the old fart.

  37. If, and it is a big if, the Gem worm audience, were a genuine cross section of the swinging voters in this election, then Rudd is still in with a chance, provided he can get the messages out to them en masse? Lots of ifs and buts but I wouldn’t be calling it for the Libs just yet. Still early days … But Abbott looks the more likely if an election called today….

  38. Kevin the Massiah, supposedly the best debater in the world could barely give evil knuckle dragging Abbott a gentle Chinese burn with a goose feather. And all along reading from his notes. Who was the scripted drone again ?
    I bet there must be a mass thumping sound echoing around Canberra as ALP cabinet ministers are smacking their heads against the nearest wall while incoherently crying “what have we done ?”. Kevin needed a massive win to cement his recycled leadership. All he has done is actually make Abbott look better despite winning by a sliver of a margin. What happened to all the “floor wiping”, “ass kicking”, ” crushing debater” that the Messiah Kevin’s supporters were so desperately promoting ? Did someone lob something of Kevin in the last 3 years ?

  39. no newspoll tonight?

    morpheus the 3 properly vetted audiences gave Rudd a comfortable victory.

    Oh i forgot, your side do not particularly care for facts.

  40. look, howard at least made an effort at a debate. how do you debate a laughing clown full of contradictions, lies, and insults? rudd had no right of reply. i think he did well.

    btw did i hear wrong but did abbott call rudd a mob at one stage, then correct to rudd. truly i dont think one can think badly enough about the cretinous logic of that profoundly unethical insincere and unchristian man

  41. [provided he can get the messages out to them en masse? ]

    That’s the trick isn’t it. Talking to a room full of people who have given you their undivided attention is different to trying to appeal to a country full of undecided voters who are giving minimal attention.

  47. Should have stuck with Gillard.

    In fact, in 2006 they should have made Gillard Leader, Rudd deputy—Gillard had higher support than Rudd. The whole Rudd experiment has been a disaster—and reading “The Stalking of Julia Gillard” it seems it was a predictable disaster!

    Abbott gets in, get Costello to do an “audit”—and the economy descends into recession!

    Rudd—a four letter word!

  48. The Liberals have a problem. They don’t accept that the GFC ever existed and believe that if they are elected the world will just automatically reset in 2007 before the election.

    The ignored the GFC while it was happening and instead of joining the Government in the spirit of bipartisanship to provide what was best for Australia they hid under a rock emerging every now and then to say “we could do better” but never saying how.

    They deserted Australia in a time of need…never to be forgiven

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