ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49

An automated phone poll conducted today supports the broader polling picture of ongoing drift away from Labor, although a new Galaxy poll is somewhat more hopeful for them.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 up from 52-48 last week, from primary votes of 36.9% for Labor (down 0.6%), 46.9% for the Coalition (up 1.2%) and 8.9 for the Greens (down 0.7%). On the all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47, up from 50.9-49.1 in the poll conducted on Sunday immediately after the election was called.

UPDATE: And now another Galaxy poll, this time national, and slightly better for Labor than other recent results. The Labor primary vote is at 38%, down two on the last national Galaxy result of a fortnight ago, with the Coalition and the Greens each up one to 45% and 10%. On two-party preferred the Coalition leads 51-49, compared with 50-50 last time. Kevin Rudd maintains a handy 47-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, although it’s down from 51-34. There are also questions on the respective leaders’ greatest weaknesses which you can see here. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1002.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,822 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49”

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  1. [Sprocket: Howard lost a multitude of debates and still got re-elected. You are clutching your straws. Get over it and accept that it’s OVER!]
    True. In the end most Australians do not want intelligent PMs. They want a competent one who they imagine has the same prejudices as themselves.

  2. Seven worm was an opt-in worm; now that explains the discrepancy! Did think Nine worm was just a tad Rudd-friendly; the Sydney thing was a gaffe or at least very risky in my view.

    Generally I thought Rudd was much smoother and more confident and better at sounding like he knew what he was talking about.

  3. [New2This
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 8:51 pm | PERMALINK
    Abbott looked like a leader. Rudd looked like a reader.]

    that is Andrew Robb’s line – is it you moonlighting?

  4. [Everyone go walking somewhere, find some folk, ask them who won the debate.

    We will then add up the figures.]

    You’re not seriously trying to get us to consider anecdotal evidence, are you?

  5. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/08/history-debate-worm-australia

    In any event, “wormology” has a patchy record as a barometer of electoral success. The worm liked John Howard in 1996 and Rudd in 2007, but it also gave the 2004 debate to Mark Latham and the 1998 debate to Kim Beazley – and they both lost. In 2010 it gave Gillard a decisive win in her debate against Abbott, but the actual election result was not nearly so clearcut.

  6. So the story of the debate is how 7 managed to find a worm that gave it to Abbott when the other 3 gave it convincingly to Rudd.

    And of course the OM will go with the 7 verdict

  7. So just to recap;
    I had a feeling this is how it would pan out.
    Abbott wins.
    Abbott will be Prime minister of Australia.

    Let it sink in folks.

    It is gobsmackingly fucking incomprehensible on just about every level; but it’s gonna happen.

    Amazing.

    I feel really pissed now about the false dawn of the past few weeks.

    I think I’d rather we lost huge under Gillard and died on our feet now. Latham might have been right.

    Lets get it over with…….have the election tomorrow.

  8. [Abbott looked like a leader. Rudd looked like a reader.]
    You sound like a follower? But then, every authoritarian leader needs lots of authoritarian followers. “I know my sheep, and my sheep vote for me.”

  9. The seven worm being self selected explains a lot.

    It was not just that it was pro Abbott. It reflexively went down every time Rudd spoke, regardless of topic. Whereas the 9 and 10 ones were much more gradual.

  10. Fleetwood Mac had a legendary reputation for cocaine usage in the 70s. How they all survived is amazing. They used to have a cocaine room just off stage during their concerts so they could have a toot between songs.

  11. zoidlord@1566

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/08/history-debate-worm-australia

    In any event, “wormology” has a patchy record as a barometer of electoral success. The worm liked John Howard in 1996 and Rudd in 2007, but it also gave the 2004 debate to Mark Latham and the 1998 debate to Kim Beazley – and they both lost. In 2010 it gave Gillard a decisive win in her debate against Abbott, but the actual election result was not nearly so clearcut.

    Yep – and this applies to verdicts of who won the debate generally. Debates do not usually have much impact on the outcome unless someone does something very stupid, or unless they help the LOTO to establish themselves.

  12. pithicus
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 7:42 pm | PERMALINK
    @ Rosemour
    I go and read mumble and andrew elder when in despair.
    give it a whirl.

    Just read Mumble. Thank you 🙂

  13. Abbott is winning in the polls.

    Abbott is winning in the betting market.

    Abbott won tonights debate.

    Say hello to Prime Minister Abbott

  14. Sean, I know you are trying to sound cocky and confident. Your side wants to call it now, 4 weeks out. What is it that you are scared of? Your guy stuffing up? The numbers not adding up?

    I have never seen such triumphialism at 51-49 with a month to go. It betrays a nervousness.

  15. How about an animated ad with Abbott as a robot, pressing buttons for boats, batts, bad govmnet etc

    we want this clown as PM??

  16. Socrates Libs were tweeting supporters to opt in fir worm. Seems many did whereas Ch9 chose 100 swinging voters for audience and worm

  17. [Socrates Libs were tweeting supporters to opt in fir worm. Seems many did whereas Ch9 chose 100 swinging voters for audience and worm]

    I notice when the left are losing.. invent a conspiracy theory.

  18. Triton

    I thought Tony Hill was a reasonable umpire. It looks like he just guessing now.

    They will have to find a replacement come the summer here.

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