As talk firms of a September 7 election, we review another two seats which might form part of a hypothetical Labor majority, being conservative marginals in the relatively promising states of Western Australia and Queensland.
Swan (Liberal 2.5%)
The perennially tight marginal seat of Swan covers areas of inner Perth bounded to the north by the Swan River and the west and south by the Canning River. It extends from South Perth and Como north-eastwards through Victoria Park to Belmont, and south-eastwards through Bentley to Cannington. There is a division in the electorate between the affluent and Liberal-voting west and lower-income Labor-voting east, reflected in the corresponding state seats of South Perth and Victoria Park which are respectively safe for Liberal and Labor. The combination of the two areas has left the federal electorate finely poised, being decided by margins of 164 votes in 2007, 104 votes in 2004 and 294 votes in 1993.
Swan in its present form is unrecognisable as the seat that was created at federation, which covered the state’s non-metropolitan south-west. The seat’s inaugural member was John Forrest, explorer, colonial Premier, federation founding father and senior minister in early non-Labor governnments. The electorate was drawn into the metropolitan area when parliament was enlarged in 1949, at which point it continued to cover the eastern suburbs as far north as Midland. Labor only intermittently held the seat until 1969 when it was won by Adrian Bennett, who retained it until his defeat in 1975 by John Martyr.
Swan returned to the Labor fold in 1980 with the election of 32-year-old Kim Beazley Jr, future party leader and son of the Whitlam government Education Minister and long-serving Fremantle MP Kim Beazley Sr. Beazley strengthened his hold on the seat with consecutive swings of 8.1% and 8.6% in 1980 and 1983, but the expansion of parliament in 1984 cut his margin by 4.1% by transferring inner eastern suburbs around Bassendean to Perth. A sharp swing at the 1990 election further pared back Beazley’s margin, and he began to cast around for a safer seat after surviving the 1993 election by 294 votes. A safety hatch opened when Wendy Fatin retired in the somewhat safer seat of Brand along Perth’s coastal southern suburbs at the 1996 election, which Beazley was nonetheless able to retain by just 387 votes.
Swan meanwhile fell to Liberal candidate Don Randall, who was tipped out by a 6.4% swing in 1998 before returning at the 2001 election in his present capacity as member for Canning. The new Labor member for Swan was former farmer and prison officer Kim Wilkie, who barely survived a poor performance by Labor in Perth at the 2004 election despite a disastrous campaign for his Liberal opponent Andrew Murfin. A correction after the Liberals’ under-performance in 2004 presumably explains the seat bucking the trend of the 2007 election, at which the seat was one of only two in the country to fall to the Liberals, the other being the northern Perth seat of Cowan.
The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Steve Irons, a former WA league footballer and proprietor of an air-conditioning business. Irons’ tiny margin was erased by a 0.4% redistribution shift ahead of the 2010 election, but he retained the seat with a 2.8% swing that was closely in line with the statewide result. Labor’s candidate is John Bissett, deputy mayor of the Town of Victoria Park.
Dawson (Liberal National 2.4%)
Extending along the central Queensland coast from Mackay northwards through the Whitsunday Islands, Bowen and Ayr to southern Townsville, Dawson has had a wild ride after the past two elections, firstly falling to Labor with an epic swing of 13.2% in 2007 before returning to the conservative fold in 2010. The swing on the latter occasion was 5.0%, approximately in line with the statewide result, which rose to double figures in the Whitsunday region booths around Airlie Beach and Proserpine. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, and has consistently been centred on the sugar capital of Mackay. While Mackay has consistently been an area of strength for Labor, the surrounding rural territory has tended to keep the seat in the conservative fold. The only Labor member prior to 2007 was Whitlam government minister Rex Patterson, who won the seat at a by-election in February 1967 and kept a tenuous hold until his defeat in 1975.
The Nationals retained the seat throughout the Hawke-Keating years, despite close calls in 1983 (1.2%) and 1990 (0.1%, or 181 votes). De-Anne Kelly succeeded Ray Braithwaite as the party’s member in 1996, become the first woman ever to represent the party in the House of Representatives. The swing that unseated Kelly in 2007 was one of three double-digit swings to Labor in Queensland at that election, and the only one to strike a sitting member. Labor’s unxpected victor was James Bidgood, a former Mackay councillor noted for linking the global financial crisis to biblical prophecy. Bidgood bowed out after a single term citing health problems, and was succeeded as Labor’s candidate by Whitsunday mayor Mike Brunker. Brunker however proved unable to hold back a statewide tide at the 2010 election which almost entirely undid the party’s gains of 2007.
Dawson has since been held by George Christensen, a former Mackay councillor and local newspaper publisher who sits in parliament with the Nationals. Christensen suffered an embarrassment during the 2010 campaign with the emergence of newsletters he had written as a university student containing what Tony Abbott conceded were “colourful” views on Jews, gays and women. He has more recently been noted for his hostility to Islamic radicalism, having been the only federal MP to attend rallies held in Australia by controversial Dutch politician Geert Wilders. His Labor opponent for the coming election is Bronwyn Taha, a former Proserpine restaurant owner and electorate officer to state Whitsunday MP Jan Jarratt.
mari – no panic here. I think Rudd has panicked – why call an election when you don’t have a winning poll lead? Things must look really bad in the future for the ALP.
I’m rejoicing.
Rudd has screwed the pooch this time
I don’t expect the ALP to win, I hope they do, but if not, I really hope that the LNP do not have the balance of power in the Senate. And I think having Rudd as ALP leader will ensure that.
If the LNP win,I am looking forward to a hopelessly inept and ineffectual government with Tony Abbott having several nodding fits and enraged moments- which will be entertaining and absolutely disastrous for the country.
Compact Crank
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 6:20 pm | Permalink
“A New Way” . . . to select a backstabbing PM?
“A New Way” . . . for the ALP to rack up debt and deficits.
———————————————————
Only the Liberals talk debt and deficit.
The IMF and OECD highly rate Australia.
The three rating agencies have given Australia a Triple A rating.
Only the Liberals talk the increased productivity.
Their aim has been to cause as much damage and loss of confidence as is possible to the point that I see it as close to treason.
Given Reachtel doesn’t poll mobiles, the 70-30 lead to ALP in the under 35s does not show up as much.
And I suspect this was done last week…
ALP won’t win with a FP <40. Not even close.
and the first ALP election ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMGCByEkWKA
@GrogsGamut: The ALP’s first advert: “A New Way” – http://t.co/eUKOavehAR
Sean 2045
Dead right, The Australian voters gave the Labor Govt a mandate to dismantle the Pacific Solution and is was done with bi-partisan agreement with the Liberal Party.
You are just p-ssed that the Liberals lost and won’t accept that mandate the people gave to Labor.
Very undemocratic thinking….
[Given Reachtel doesn’t poll mobiles,]
My Reachtel call today was on a landline.
Compact Crank
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 6:28 pm | PERMALINK
ALP won’t win with a FP <40. Not even close.
——–
38% labor is retain
Coaliton can not win with anythign less then 45%
[You voted for Labor to stop the boats… Labor took boat arrivals from 120 a year to 17,000 a year
You voted Labor to deliver a budget surplus… Labor took the $4 Billion Surplus and turned it into a $30 Billion Dollar deficit
You voted Labor because they promised never to introduce a Carbon Tax under the government they led… you found out after the election this was a cruel lie
Labor is full of crap, they can’t be trusted to deliver anything post election they promise pre-election]
bit angry tonight Tisme. bit like Abbott you get the sense the unhinging is not far away bit like the Crows crumbling under pressure in the heat of battle. a few gosepel truth not tech heads moments coming up.
[Compact Crank
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 6:28 pm | PERMALINK
ALP won’t win with a FP 60%. Not even close.
reachtel has labor in a minority government
“A New Way”
Don’t tell me – a new JuanKRudd.?
Something a bit odd about this Reachtel poll.
It shows a Preferred Leader neck-a-neck, while all reputable polls have a double digit difference between the two men. Intuitively, Abbott has done zilch, zero to move his position.
Just a few days ago, one of the other polls showed Labor leading in a number of concern areas, now, if you are to believe this poll, Labor has gone back to numbers like those when we had PMJG. Not plausible.
Finally, “boats” barely rate as an issue.
Something not quite right here.
Will get to see Rudds tantrum video when he was told by hawker he can’t go to G20…
Labor had 37.99% of the votes in 2010.
coalition is not picking up seats
[Just Me
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 6:28 pm | PERMALINK
Given Reachtel doesn’t poll mobiles,
My Reachtel call today was on a landline.]
Mine on Thursday was on landline too – so not sure when this poll was taken?
Liberals are so popular that they have only held power without having to form a Coaltion twice in our history.
They have near enough always had to rely on a minor party so they could form Govt..
There could be several reasons (and some I don’t guess) why Rudd has called the election now.
1. He’s still a “fresh face” compared to Abbott, yet he’s familiar to voters.
2. He’s been busy “governing” and showing “leadership” – e.g. making decisions and changing stuff. That speed can’t go on for ever, best to grasp the nettle now.
3. Coalition are still on the back foot. Look at Abbott’s policy speech (sic). All the old stuff.
4. No need to go back to Parliament and allow newer Ministers to be caught out.
5. He’s still on a high and isn’t exhausted yet.
[Given Reachtel doesn’t poll mobiles, the 70-30 lead to ALP in the under 35s does not show up as much.]
Oh for Fucks Sake… Give up!
The pollsters didn’t poll mobile phones before the QLD State Election… underestimated the LNP vote
The pollsters didn’t poll mobile phones before the NSW State Election… underestimated the Coalition vote
The pollsters didn’t poll mobile phones before the WA State Election… underestimated the Coalition vote
The pollsters didn’t poll mobile phones before the NT Election… underestimated the Coalition vote
Please cut the “Mobile Phone” Bullsheet!
A good opening ad by the ALP.
Gee Abbott looked awful during his press conference. He appeared to have cold sore on his upper lip.
zoidlord
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 6:31 pm | PERMALINK
Labor had 37.99% of the votes in 2010.
———————————-
Yes close enough to 38% – is the mark to be retain
Abbott is only in it for himself a majority or nothing
Is that right? Reachtel does not do mobiles?
If so, this must be a limiting factor in its accuracy?
Don’t you think Abbott looks tired ?
AA @2057 – there was no mandate – ALP/Rudd went to the 2007 poll on a “me too” basis on most things including Border Control and Immigration.
I thought the Coalition was the Noalition and wreckers yet when they allowed the ALP to pass legislation which they did with over 85% of legislation you shove it in their faces?
ABC going hard for Labor… when does the non-bias kick in?
ReachTEL @ReachTEL 1m
Our federal poll was conducted this afternoon. Sample=2,949. MoE= +/-1.8%. Full results: http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-4august13 … #auspol
I have been polled twice in 2 days.
The first was EMRS.
The second was a mob who I eventually hung up on after I accused them of push polling.
I’ve NEVER EVER been polled
AA @2069 – you are clutching at straws.
[AA @2057 – there was no mandate – ALP/Rudd went to the 2007 poll on a “me too” basis on most things including Border Control and Immigration.]
“We’ll just change it all when we get in” – Peter Garrett 2007
I didn’t believe it at the time… now I get it, Labor pre-election can not be trusted on anything they say
The Rudd appeal today for contributions from the public (do I have that right?) is probably the first sign of the Obama team influence.
From what I remember, the Obama campaign was “people power” against “corporations power” of the Romney campaign.
[I thought the Coalition was the Noalition and wreckers yet when they allowed the ALP to pass legislation which they did with over 85% of legislation you shove it in their faces?]
Tell someone who cares, Corey.
[Please cut the “Mobile Phone” Bullsheet]
why say bullsheet when you say FUCK
AussieA
That always makes me chortle, when Abbott takes the high-and-mighty position wtte “I will never negotiate with another Party.”
Does he ever replay himself and listen to what he says?
As we have an election date, I will honour a moratorium on Rudd criticism. I just hope the b’tard is worth it.
I suspect the OO will rush out Newspoll tonight if Labor behind.
Sky should still host Rudd tomorrow night, and have an empty chair for Abbott.
Why wont he debate, and why wont the OM call him on his cowardice?
@Sean/2082
I believe Abbott went from Turn back the boats, to supporting to PNG, to we won’t deal with other countries.
In any event, given the so-say “tough” week and “tough” messages Labor has had to deliver 48% – even with this off the cuff poll – must be a worry for the conservatives.
I think it was Bob Carr who said, just after Rudd II, that Labor was looking for 52-48 at the start of the election campaign. Looks like he got what he wanted.
Nobody has disputed that the conservatives have had a bit of fat up until now, but this will not last for long at this rate.
Mark Knights view of Turnbulls Fraudband
https://twitter.com/Margy011/status/323201562803568641/photo/1
Meanwhile in the footy world Port Adelaide supporters celebrating another great win over the luckless Crows. Lookinggood for a finals appearance on September 7!@!
All hands on deck New2, sean and Crank…..MingHo breaks out out the penalty rates
Andrew
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 6:37 pm | PERMALINK
I suspect the OO will rush out Newspoll tonight if Labor behind.
—————-
Agreed
They will make sure labor is behind , they need thier puppett abbott to win, they hope people fall gullible to these polls
my pick
newsltd and newspoll are so darn predictable
58/42
We need a “New Way”? – yep. The ALP is not a new way – they’ve had 6 years of screwing the pooch. Time for a new Coalition Government.
Labor doesn’t need a majority now. 73 will do.
Because Abbott said he will not negotiate to form a minority government 🙂
Joe Hockey wants give schools “certainty”: Labor wants to give them money.
Newsltd and the pro coalition media can not afford to let the public see
thier puppett abbott is going to lose
Propaganda is the only hope newsltd/ abbott coaliton has