Seats of the week: Swan and Dawson

Two seats which Labor might hope to gain if they can recover from historically poor results in their respective states in 2010.

As talk firms of a September 7 election, we review another two seats which might form part of a hypothetical Labor majority, being conservative marginals in the relatively promising states of Western Australia and Queensland.

Swan (Liberal 2.5%)

The perennially tight marginal seat of Swan covers areas of inner Perth bounded to the north by the Swan River and the west and south by the Canning River. It extends from South Perth and Como north-eastwards through Victoria Park to Belmont, and south-eastwards through Bentley to Cannington. There is a division in the electorate between the affluent and Liberal-voting west and lower-income Labor-voting east, reflected in the corresponding state seats of South Perth and Victoria Park which are respectively safe for Liberal and Labor. The combination of the two areas has left the federal electorate finely poised, being decided by margins of 164 votes in 2007, 104 votes in 2004 and 294 votes in 1993.

Swan in its present form is unrecognisable as the seat that was created at federation, which covered the state’s non-metropolitan south-west. The seat’s inaugural member was John Forrest, explorer, colonial Premier, federation founding father and senior minister in early non-Labor governnments. The electorate was drawn into the metropolitan area when parliament was enlarged in 1949, at which point it continued to cover the eastern suburbs as far north as Midland. Labor only intermittently held the seat until 1969 when it was won by Adrian Bennett, who retained it until his defeat in 1975 by John Martyr.

Swan returned to the Labor fold in 1980 with the election of 32-year-old Kim Beazley Jr, future party leader and son of the Whitlam government Education Minister and long-serving Fremantle MP Kim Beazley Sr. Beazley strengthened his hold on the seat with consecutive swings of 8.1% and 8.6% in 1980 and 1983, but the expansion of parliament in 1984 cut his margin by 4.1% by transferring inner eastern suburbs around Bassendean to Perth. A sharp swing at the 1990 election further pared back Beazley’s margin, and he began to cast around for a safer seat after surviving the 1993 election by 294 votes. A safety hatch opened when Wendy Fatin retired in the somewhat safer seat of Brand along Perth’s coastal southern suburbs at the 1996 election, which Beazley was nonetheless able to retain by just 387 votes.

Swan meanwhile fell to Liberal candidate Don Randall, who was tipped out by a 6.4% swing in 1998 before returning at the 2001 election in his present capacity as member for Canning. The new Labor member for Swan was former farmer and prison officer Kim Wilkie, who barely survived a poor performance by Labor in Perth at the 2004 election despite a disastrous campaign for his Liberal opponent Andrew Murfin. A correction after the Liberals’ under-performance in 2004 presumably explains the seat bucking the trend of the 2007 election, at which the seat was one of only two in the country to fall to the Liberals, the other being the northern Perth seat of Cowan.

The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Steve Irons, a former WA league footballer and proprietor of an air-conditioning business. Irons’ tiny margin was erased by a 0.4% redistribution shift ahead of the 2010 election, but he retained the seat with a 2.8% swing that was closely in line with the statewide result. Labor’s candidate is John Bissett, deputy mayor of the Town of Victoria Park.

Dawson (Liberal National 2.4%)

Extending along the central Queensland coast from Mackay northwards through the Whitsunday Islands, Bowen and Ayr to southern Townsville, Dawson has had a wild ride after the past two elections, firstly falling to Labor with an epic swing of 13.2% in 2007 before returning to the conservative fold in 2010. The swing on the latter occasion was 5.0%, approximately in line with the statewide result, which rose to double figures in the Whitsunday region booths around Airlie Beach and Proserpine. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, and has consistently been centred on the sugar capital of Mackay. While Mackay has consistently been an area of strength for Labor, the surrounding rural territory has tended to keep the seat in the conservative fold. The only Labor member prior to 2007 was Whitlam government minister Rex Patterson, who won the seat at a by-election in February 1967 and kept a tenuous hold until his defeat in 1975.

The Nationals retained the seat throughout the Hawke-Keating years, despite close calls in 1983 (1.2%) and 1990 (0.1%, or 181 votes). De-Anne Kelly succeeded Ray Braithwaite as the party’s member in 1996, become the first woman ever to represent the party in the House of Representatives. The swing that unseated Kelly in 2007 was one of three double-digit swings to Labor in Queensland at that election, and the only one to strike a sitting member. Labor’s unxpected victor was James Bidgood, a former Mackay councillor noted for linking the global financial crisis to biblical prophecy. Bidgood bowed out after a single term citing health problems, and was succeeded as Labor’s candidate by Whitsunday mayor Mike Brunker. Brunker however proved unable to hold back a statewide tide at the 2010 election which almost entirely undid the party’s gains of 2007.

Dawson has since been held by George Christensen, a former Mackay councillor and local newspaper publisher who sits in parliament with the Nationals. Christensen suffered an embarrassment during the 2010 campaign with the emergence of newsletters he had written as a university student containing what Tony Abbott conceded were “colourful” views on Jews, gays and women. He has more recently been noted for his hostility to Islamic radicalism, having been the only federal MP to attend rallies held in Australia by controversial Dutch politician Geert Wilders. His Labor opponent for the coming election is Bronwyn Taha, a former Proserpine restaurant owner and electorate officer to state Whitsunday MP Jan Jarratt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,259 comments on “Seats of the week: Swan and Dawson”

Comments Page 41 of 46
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  2. [george wright ‏@wrightgb 5m
    .@LoughnaneB Thanks for the letter. Remember when Tony said this? “Name the date, start the campaign. I’ll debate him every day.” 1/2

    george wright ‏@wrightgb 4m
    .@LoughnaneB The PM’s offered to kick things off with a debate tomorrow night. Sky say they’ll host. Is Tony in? 2/2]

    Bet he wimps it George, Abbott sticking by his word, ha.

  6. zoidlord

    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

    @AA/1995

    Is that a high mark or a low mark for Abbott?
    ——————————————————–

    Looking at his lack of empathy and compassion it’s so easy to see why he was not successful in the seminary.

  7. ….praying for an outcome rather than praying for a person?

    Well no. Do I care if he goes ? Don’t care. Do I care if he survives. Don;t care about that either.

  12. Rudd also rubbed it in to abbott by saying abbott would had been pm today if an election was held yesterday

    Labor is going to be retain

  13. 1920
    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    [Crabb is the Doris Day of political commentary]

    I have only seen 2-3 episodes, but I think Crabb’s attempt via Kitchen Cabinet to look at pollies in another setting, from a different side, engage with them in an more casual domestic setting, is a worthwhile experiment.

    Whether it works or not remains to be seen, but certainly worth trying. IMHO.

  15. [The outlook for the ALP must be diabolical if this is as good as it gets and JuanKRudd thinks he needs to call the election now without having a winning polling lead.]

    You have to understand Rudd’s delusion.

    When he looks in the mirror he see’s a political popular genius that can’t be defeated. It’s the trait of Rudd that will see his down fall.

  16. Why would anyone vote for Abbott/Liberals when they hae no policies.

    All they have is “What Rudd says but bigger”

    Policy on the run, policy on the run with back flips, policy without consultation with Shadow Caucus.

  21. guytaur

    ALP wins six seat in Qld on 48-52 to LNP. The headline 2PP nationally means very little this election. Shows how difficult it is for Tony to win.

  26. 1946
    Meguire Bob
    [Oakeshott said he would think about realasing what Abbott begged with them, only if abbott conitnues to deny he will not make deals

    Well Abbott is continuing tosay he will not make deals

    Oakeshott and windsor should release them]

    Give it a couple of weeks, let him tie himself in a few more knots, then spill the whole story… 🙂

  27. The “pamphlet” is being pushed hard by Liberals.

    When you got nothing else I suppose they don’t have much choice but to deceive the voters with a pamphlet that says nothing about policy and nothing about costings

  28. rua

    Yeah thats true but my point remains if only asking Liberal and Labor primary voters that cuts out Green KAP etc possible preferences

  32. Just Me

    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    1946
    Meguire Bob

    Oakeshott said he would think about realasing what Abbott begged with them, only if abbott conitnues to deny he will not make deals

    Well Abbott is continuing tosay he will not make deals

    Oakeshott and windsor should release them

    Give it a couple of weeks, let him tie himself in a few more knots, then spill the whole story… 🙂
    ———————————————————–

    There is a video on Youtube.

    Wish I wasn’t an analogue guy in a fibre optic world (copper world if Abbott wins) or I could paste the link here.

  33. Boerwar – I don’t generally put a lot of weight on PPM but so many here do it’s nice to just highlight it when necessary.

  34. “@PaulBongiorno: I like Jeff Kennett but an independent commentator on7 News? Tonight he was trying to save Tony Abbott’s bacon. Quelle surprise!”

  35. [Why rooty hill]

    It is probably an arrangement with Murdoch. The Sunday Telegraph today had a front page spread claiming Western Sydney voters desperately want an immediate election.

    [FRUSTRATED voters in the western Sydney seat of Parramatta want an election immediately – and they will vote on the economy, the cost of living and childcare.

    Residents in the marginal seat – held by Labor MP Julie Owens – say they have waited long enough to go to the polls, with many already locked in on who will receive their vote.]

  38. 1972
    guytaur
    [ “@ABCNews24: The AEC says they have ordered 120,000 magnifying glasses that will be tied to the voting screen at all polling places. #ausvotes” ]

    That’s an aging population for you.

  41. “A New Way” . . . to select a backstabbing PM?

    “A New Way” . . . for the ALP to rack up debt and deficits.

  44. Compact Crank

    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    So when is the ALP rolling out Piggy Howes to tell all the minions how to vote?
    ——————————————————

    You think? You really think that unionists don’t know who to vote for and need to be told?

    You insult their intelligence. They know that Abbott will re-introduce Work Choices, they know that Abbott has no real policies, they know he’s too gutless to have the PBO cost his promises, they know he’s too gutless to say upfront that he will change the GST….and so on

  47. You voted for Labor to stop the boats… Labor took boat arrivals from 120 a year to 17,000 a year

    You voted Labor to deliver a budget surplus… Labor took the $4 Billion Surplus and turned it into a $30 Billion Dollar deficit

    You voted Labor because they promised never to introduce a Carbon Tax under the government they led… you found out after the election this was a cruel lie

    Labor is full of crap, they can’t be trusted to deliver anything post election they promise pre-election

  48. Compact Crank@2034


    So we are meant to trust Rudd?

    On what basis?

    What of his untrustworthy history are we supposed to ignore?

    Sounding pretty worried there cc.

    Keep it coming, the more – the more you’re worried.

  50. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 15m

    #ReachTEL Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 (-1) L/NP 52 (+1) #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5m

    #ReachTEL Poll Primary Votes: ALP 37.5 (-1.8) L/NP 45.7 (+0.3) GRN 8.2 (-0.1) #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m

    #ReachTEL Poll Preferred PM: Rudd 49.1 (-3.3) Abbott 50.9 (+3.3) #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m

    #ReachTEL Poll Effectively manage economy: ALP 39.3 L/NP 60.7 #ausvotes

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