As talk firms of a September 7 election, we review another two seats which might form part of a hypothetical Labor majority, being conservative marginals in the relatively promising states of Western Australia and Queensland.
Swan (Liberal 2.5%)
The perennially tight marginal seat of Swan covers areas of inner Perth bounded to the north by the Swan River and the west and south by the Canning River. It extends from South Perth and Como north-eastwards through Victoria Park to Belmont, and south-eastwards through Bentley to Cannington. There is a division in the electorate between the affluent and Liberal-voting west and lower-income Labor-voting east, reflected in the corresponding state seats of South Perth and Victoria Park which are respectively safe for Liberal and Labor. The combination of the two areas has left the federal electorate finely poised, being decided by margins of 164 votes in 2007, 104 votes in 2004 and 294 votes in 1993.
Swan in its present form is unrecognisable as the seat that was created at federation, which covered the state’s non-metropolitan south-west. The seat’s inaugural member was John Forrest, explorer, colonial Premier, federation founding father and senior minister in early non-Labor governnments. The electorate was drawn into the metropolitan area when parliament was enlarged in 1949, at which point it continued to cover the eastern suburbs as far north as Midland. Labor only intermittently held the seat until 1969 when it was won by Adrian Bennett, who retained it until his defeat in 1975 by John Martyr.
Swan returned to the Labor fold in 1980 with the election of 32-year-old Kim Beazley Jr, future party leader and son of the Whitlam government Education Minister and long-serving Fremantle MP Kim Beazley Sr. Beazley strengthened his hold on the seat with consecutive swings of 8.1% and 8.6% in 1980 and 1983, but the expansion of parliament in 1984 cut his margin by 4.1% by transferring inner eastern suburbs around Bassendean to Perth. A sharp swing at the 1990 election further pared back Beazley’s margin, and he began to cast around for a safer seat after surviving the 1993 election by 294 votes. A safety hatch opened when Wendy Fatin retired in the somewhat safer seat of Brand along Perth’s coastal southern suburbs at the 1996 election, which Beazley was nonetheless able to retain by just 387 votes.
Swan meanwhile fell to Liberal candidate Don Randall, who was tipped out by a 6.4% swing in 1998 before returning at the 2001 election in his present capacity as member for Canning. The new Labor member for Swan was former farmer and prison officer Kim Wilkie, who barely survived a poor performance by Labor in Perth at the 2004 election despite a disastrous campaign for his Liberal opponent Andrew Murfin. A correction after the Liberals’ under-performance in 2004 presumably explains the seat bucking the trend of the 2007 election, at which the seat was one of only two in the country to fall to the Liberals, the other being the northern Perth seat of Cowan.
The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Steve Irons, a former WA league footballer and proprietor of an air-conditioning business. Irons’ tiny margin was erased by a 0.4% redistribution shift ahead of the 2010 election, but he retained the seat with a 2.8% swing that was closely in line with the statewide result. Labor’s candidate is John Bissett, deputy mayor of the Town of Victoria Park.
Dawson (Liberal National 2.4%)
Extending along the central Queensland coast from Mackay northwards through the Whitsunday Islands, Bowen and Ayr to southern Townsville, Dawson has had a wild ride after the past two elections, firstly falling to Labor with an epic swing of 13.2% in 2007 before returning to the conservative fold in 2010. The swing on the latter occasion was 5.0%, approximately in line with the statewide result, which rose to double figures in the Whitsunday region booths around Airlie Beach and Proserpine. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, and has consistently been centred on the sugar capital of Mackay. While Mackay has consistently been an area of strength for Labor, the surrounding rural territory has tended to keep the seat in the conservative fold. The only Labor member prior to 2007 was Whitlam government minister Rex Patterson, who won the seat at a by-election in February 1967 and kept a tenuous hold until his defeat in 1975.
The Nationals retained the seat throughout the Hawke-Keating years, despite close calls in 1983 (1.2%) and 1990 (0.1%, or 181 votes). De-Anne Kelly succeeded Ray Braithwaite as the party’s member in 1996, become the first woman ever to represent the party in the House of Representatives. The swing that unseated Kelly in 2007 was one of three double-digit swings to Labor in Queensland at that election, and the only one to strike a sitting member. Labor’s unxpected victor was James Bidgood, a former Mackay councillor noted for linking the global financial crisis to biblical prophecy. Bidgood bowed out after a single term citing health problems, and was succeeded as Labor’s candidate by Whitsunday mayor Mike Brunker. Brunker however proved unable to hold back a statewide tide at the 2010 election which almost entirely undid the party’s gains of 2007.
Dawson has since been held by George Christensen, a former Mackay councillor and local newspaper publisher who sits in parliament with the Nationals. Christensen suffered an embarrassment during the 2010 campaign with the emergence of newsletters he had written as a university student containing what Tony Abbott conceded were “colourful” views on Jews, gays and women. He has more recently been noted for his hostility to Islamic radicalism, having been the only federal MP to attend rallies held in Australia by controversial Dutch politician Geert Wilders. His Labor opponent for the coming election is Bronwyn Taha, a former Proserpine restaurant owner and electorate officer to state Whitsunday MP Jan Jarratt.
Truss is spirited? Voice modulation and everything? Sometimes I think he could star in Weekend at Bernie’s II.
Rabbott needs a week to prepare for a debate?
A joke right???
And what’s Rabbott’s obsession with Rooty Hill?
Carey, I cringed a bit too; but it fits the theme. The Libs are paid up big time by vested interests. Labor will need to rely on people power.
[That would be a “turd” time loser. ]
a polished performance then?
If Abbott won’t do deals with minor parties, is the Warren Truss in danger of collapse?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-03/budget-warning/4863116
The Treasurer Troy Buswell has already indicated the budget will be tough, arguing WA is facing more challenging conditions now than during the global financial crisis.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/wa-budget-delay-hits-hospital-spending-according-to-senior-health-bureaucrats/story-e6frg6n6-1226690714524
The Australian Medical Association WA confirmed that uncertainty surrounding the health budget had impacted on health delivery.
—-
If WA can recognize GFC? but Not Federal Coalition Party, the how we can trust them?
My raitings
1- online entertainment
2- Rudd
3- the air
4- Truss
5- Milne
6- Abbott
Socrates:
Well, spirited by Truss standards. 🙂
Bernard Keane @BernardKeane 33s
“Do you really think Australia needs another three years like the six years we’ve just had?” Good line from Abbott
No surprises he’s playing the unity, stability line.
——————————————————
Abbott will be replaced as LOTO after the election and we might end up with one who cares more about Australia and not his personal ambition to be PM
Hands up anyone here who actually believes Abbott’s promise to not do a deal and form a minority government?
Anyone?
Sean?
Suggested Abbott debate locations:
Rupert Murdoch’s office
Menzie’s House
George Pell’s office
K17
[Socrates – I’ve heard, one removed, he is terrified of becoming a two time loser.]
Well even if he loses, he’ll still be the bestest and most successful LOTO ever, as we have heard from his supporters here.
That is, I suppose, if you don’t count those who actually succeeded and became PM.
Carey Moore
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 5:39 pm | PERMALINK
I didn’t catch all the speeches, only Rudd’s (had errands to run). While it was a decent address that did a decent job of summarising what’s coming up, I found his calls for donations a bit cringe-worthy.
—————-
What rudd did which was good
was attacking dennis Shannahan and newsltd for protecting thier puppett abbott
One thing’s for sure – Australians simply can’t afford three more years of Labor’s reckless spending, debt, deficits and new taxes
——————————————————-
Sean T was going to explain to me the validity of the claim when Australia has 3 x Triple A ratings.
Something that Liberal demi-god for all his claimed great economic management could NOT achieve
You left out Fox Studios 🙂
The Greens are starting to also link newsltd to abbott
[attacking dennis Shannahan]
was excellent, reminiscent of Julia calling Paul Kelly..
The only ones who is keeping abbott in the election race is murdoch newsltd/corpe
Sean Tisme
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 5:28 pm | Permalink
“New Politics” the Same Old Bullshit
From Abbott he’s done nothing for the last 3 years except undermine our economy and shatter business confidence with his negativity
abbott reinventing the definition of stable outlook doesnt believe the ratings agency.definitions
Why is Rooty Hill important for Coalition Party?
Abbott wants a debate in Brisbane, ALP campaign HQ in Melbourne.
I guess this show where each needs to pick up votes. Good luck in Qld Tony ya got buckleys.
Confessions 1956
Well qualified :). Sort of like “smart compared to Homer Simpson”.
“@ABCNews24: The AEC says they have ordered 120,000 magnifying glasses that will be tied to the voting screen at all polling places. #ausvotes”
Cud chewer 1963
Good suggestion, I just don’t think the bugger could be dragged to a fourth debate anywhere 🙂
When you consider the opposition demands for an election campaign, no policy scrutiny, no costings, to avoid debate now is quite pathetic.
Psephos
[I’m glad I didn’t see his worst one. He has as much charisma as a dyspeptic funeral director.]
Love it!
confessions socrates
You reminded me. Job for Abbott after politics. Ashes third umpire
Tony’s debate offer.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/157988238/Brian-Loughnane-to-George-Wright
So he instructed Brian to write the letter, why did he not tell journos what was in it.
Fairfax:
[5:35pm: In relation to the debates (about which there will be a debate) the Coalition has proposed three encounters – one debate between the leaders at the National Press Club to be held in Canberra next Sunday, a forum at the Rooty Hill RSL in Sydney with questions from voters and another debate in Brisbane.
5:26pm: And that’s it from Mr Abbott.
(18 minutes and 40 seconds for my time keeping friends.)
5:25pm: But Mr Abbott fudges when asked if he is prepared to debate Mr Rudd tomorrow night.
“There will be a series of debates,” he promises but will not answer directly about the proposition for the one on offer tomorrow night.]
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/politics-live-august-4-2013-20130804-2r74i.html#ixzz2az4lvqJU
Looks like Rudd will be some more solo acts on Sky and elsewhere.
Latika Bourke @latikambourke 9m
Read the letter sent from Liberal Party Director Brian Loughnane to Labor’s George Wright re election debates here: http://latika.me/16sgq7I
The outlook for the ALP must be diabolical if this is as good as it gets and JuanKRudd thinks he needs to call the election now without having a winning polling lead.
[The Greens are starting to also link newsltd to abbott]
About bloody time. I hope that what remains of decent journalism in this country rears up and does the same.
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2yyrqma&s=5
Kev should debate, Milne, Palmer and Katter tomorrow with an empty chair for Abbott (maybe not the chair will make more sense).
[“@ABCNews24: The AEC says they have ordered 120,000 magnifying glasses that will be tied to the voting screen at all polling places. #ausvotes”]
Those will be to read the fine print in all the coalition’s policy costing statements, if we ever get them.
Why rooty hill,
Because I’m pretty certain that the Libs have something going on with the management and will be working really hard to plan as many lib-bots int he audience as possible.
Fact is that unless Abbott is in a controlled environment he can’t handle it.
Expect them to insist on the whole Town Hall stacked with lib-bots and very few if any real debates.
the BISONs dont lie pic.twitter.com/vy4vpBDGP3
Compact Crank
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 5:55 pm | PERMALINK
The outlook for the ALP must be diabolical if this is as good as it gets and JuanKRudd thinks he needs to call the election now without having a winning polling lead.
———-
Abbott will be joining john hewson
Should be a ripper campaign: the same old new way versus the same old old way.
Guytaur
I’d like to see him umpire a series in Pakistan. He isn’t racist, you know. John Howard could be the other umpire.
Abbott promises to revive productivity growth that slumped under Labor – but productivity slumped under Liberals & has revived under Labor!
MSM never challenge Abbott on this blatant lie….
Abbott promises to revive productivity growth that slumped under Labor – but productivity slumped under Liberals & has revived under Labor!
MSM never challenge Abbott on this blatant lie….
Ooh Nooooooo
Crooooooows
Moore
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 5:39 pm | Permalink
I didn’t catch all the speeches, only Rudd’s (had errands to run). While it was a decent address that did a decent job of summarising what’s coming up, I found his calls for donations a bit cringe-worthy.
=-============================================================NOT US HERE WE THOUGHT IT WAS A HINT for look we are your party the peoples party we are not controlled by big business
read in to things
“@SenatorWong: RT “@wrightgb: .@LoughnaneB The PM’s offered to kick things off with a debate tomorrow night. Sky say they’ll host. Is Tony in?””
Re various comments on Murdoch.
Especially this one…
citizen @ 1839
[This election is really the last that Rupert Murdoch can hope to influence. He has zero credibility in the UK and failed to elect Romney last November in the US. His newspaper division is declining and he himself is 82 and reportedly losing influence within the company.]
This really is crunch time for King Rupe. He is just about out of options. The UK and USA are now increasingly hostile territory where he is in serious danger of at least massive fines and a major defanging, and very possibly substantial jail time. The only possible bolt hole left for him in the Anglosphere is Australia, and only under a Coalition government.
This last great blatant power grab of his is now as much about protecting his personal liberty, as it is about hanging on, Gollum like, to his mountain range of cash and insidious political influence.
Labor owe Murdoch precisely zero favours, and they should most definitely make him and his abuse of media power, and how that relates to the NBN and the Coalition, a major theme in this campaign.
Who makes the decisions about this country’s future, and what is best for you and your children? You the Aussie voters, or that sleazy foreigner Mr Murdoch?
Time to hold Murdoch accountable. Now or never.
What has Abbott got to hide?
Ante up Tony. Show us what you got: all smuggle, no budgie?
A failed priest wants to debate in Rooty Hill..mmm
Why not return Abbott to the playground of his youth and have a debate t Sydney University campus? He would love the attention. Tony isn’t afraid of hard questions. He is no coward. No, not at all.
@AA/1995
Is that a high mark or a low mark for Abbott?
“@alexhart7: First on 7: Exclusive opinion poll, the first of the campaign. The surprising results. #ausvotes #vote7news #7newsat6”