As talk firms of a September 7 election, we review another two seats which might form part of a hypothetical Labor majority, being conservative marginals in the relatively promising states of Western Australia and Queensland.
Swan (Liberal 2.5%)
The perennially tight marginal seat of Swan covers areas of inner Perth bounded to the north by the Swan River and the west and south by the Canning River. It extends from South Perth and Como north-eastwards through Victoria Park to Belmont, and south-eastwards through Bentley to Cannington. There is a division in the electorate between the affluent and Liberal-voting west and lower-income Labor-voting east, reflected in the corresponding state seats of South Perth and Victoria Park which are respectively safe for Liberal and Labor. The combination of the two areas has left the federal electorate finely poised, being decided by margins of 164 votes in 2007, 104 votes in 2004 and 294 votes in 1993.
Swan in its present form is unrecognisable as the seat that was created at federation, which covered the state’s non-metropolitan south-west. The seat’s inaugural member was John Forrest, explorer, colonial Premier, federation founding father and senior minister in early non-Labor governnments. The electorate was drawn into the metropolitan area when parliament was enlarged in 1949, at which point it continued to cover the eastern suburbs as far north as Midland. Labor only intermittently held the seat until 1969 when it was won by Adrian Bennett, who retained it until his defeat in 1975 by John Martyr.
Swan returned to the Labor fold in 1980 with the election of 32-year-old Kim Beazley Jr, future party leader and son of the Whitlam government Education Minister and long-serving Fremantle MP Kim Beazley Sr. Beazley strengthened his hold on the seat with consecutive swings of 8.1% and 8.6% in 1980 and 1983, but the expansion of parliament in 1984 cut his margin by 4.1% by transferring inner eastern suburbs around Bassendean to Perth. A sharp swing at the 1990 election further pared back Beazley’s margin, and he began to cast around for a safer seat after surviving the 1993 election by 294 votes. A safety hatch opened when Wendy Fatin retired in the somewhat safer seat of Brand along Perth’s coastal southern suburbs at the 1996 election, which Beazley was nonetheless able to retain by just 387 votes.
Swan meanwhile fell to Liberal candidate Don Randall, who was tipped out by a 6.4% swing in 1998 before returning at the 2001 election in his present capacity as member for Canning. The new Labor member for Swan was former farmer and prison officer Kim Wilkie, who barely survived a poor performance by Labor in Perth at the 2004 election despite a disastrous campaign for his Liberal opponent Andrew Murfin. A correction after the Liberals’ under-performance in 2004 presumably explains the seat bucking the trend of the 2007 election, at which the seat was one of only two in the country to fall to the Liberals, the other being the northern Perth seat of Cowan.
The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Steve Irons, a former WA league footballer and proprietor of an air-conditioning business. Irons’ tiny margin was erased by a 0.4% redistribution shift ahead of the 2010 election, but he retained the seat with a 2.8% swing that was closely in line with the statewide result. Labor’s candidate is John Bissett, deputy mayor of the Town of Victoria Park.
Dawson (Liberal National 2.4%)
Extending along the central Queensland coast from Mackay northwards through the Whitsunday Islands, Bowen and Ayr to southern Townsville, Dawson has had a wild ride after the past two elections, firstly falling to Labor with an epic swing of 13.2% in 2007 before returning to the conservative fold in 2010. The swing on the latter occasion was 5.0%, approximately in line with the statewide result, which rose to double figures in the Whitsunday region booths around Airlie Beach and Proserpine. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, and has consistently been centred on the sugar capital of Mackay. While Mackay has consistently been an area of strength for Labor, the surrounding rural territory has tended to keep the seat in the conservative fold. The only Labor member prior to 2007 was Whitlam government minister Rex Patterson, who won the seat at a by-election in February 1967 and kept a tenuous hold until his defeat in 1975.
The Nationals retained the seat throughout the Hawke-Keating years, despite close calls in 1983 (1.2%) and 1990 (0.1%, or 181 votes). De-Anne Kelly succeeded Ray Braithwaite as the party’s member in 1996, become the first woman ever to represent the party in the House of Representatives. The swing that unseated Kelly in 2007 was one of three double-digit swings to Labor in Queensland at that election, and the only one to strike a sitting member. Labor’s unxpected victor was James Bidgood, a former Mackay councillor noted for linking the global financial crisis to biblical prophecy. Bidgood bowed out after a single term citing health problems, and was succeeded as Labor’s candidate by Whitsunday mayor Mike Brunker. Brunker however proved unable to hold back a statewide tide at the 2010 election which almost entirely undid the party’s gains of 2007.
Dawson has since been held by George Christensen, a former Mackay councillor and local newspaper publisher who sits in parliament with the Nationals. Christensen suffered an embarrassment during the 2010 campaign with the emergence of newsletters he had written as a university student containing what Tony Abbott conceded were “colourful” views on Jews, gays and women. He has more recently been noted for his hostility to Islamic radicalism, having been the only federal MP to attend rallies held in Australia by controversial Dutch politician Geert Wilders. His Labor opponent for the coming election is Bronwyn Taha, a former Proserpine restaurant owner and electorate officer to state Whitsunday MP Jan Jarratt.
Andrew @2088 – why won’t the ALP accept the Coalition’s Debate Invitations?
cud chewer
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 6:40 pm | PERMALINK
Labor doesn’t need a majority now. 73 will do.
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good pick up
I would be interested in the methodology of the Channel 7 poll and just how accurate it has been in the past. Or, is it just another in-house poll of dubious value?
I am amazed Rudd only managed to announce the election at 2 pm local but a full blown poll was out three or four hours later. Does not seem all that plausible to me.
Lynchpin
[Gee Abbott looked awful during his press conference. He appeared to have cold sore on his upper lip.]
Despite the bluster of the LiberalParty hacks, they are looking at losing what a few months back was the unloseable election.
And stuck with Albatross Abbott around their necks…
newsltd in desperation will have newspoll
coalition 58%
Labor 42%
abbott 50%
Rudd 35 %
in ppm
@CC/2095
Sorry CC, we already have a Coalition Goverment, it’s called liberal states.
@CC/2099
So it’s ok for Coalition Party to refuse debates, but they have to accept them from the Coalition Party?
Double standards there.
Lynchpin
[Gee Abbott looked awful during his press conference. He appeared to have cold sore on his upper lip.]
Just a little swelling from the boptox needles to try and pretty the pig.
kink @2093
I’m surprised the ALP, Greens and Unions can afford so much coverage here.
Thank God, only 34 more days till we see the back of Rudd but Labor is stuck with him as LOTO forever! I just hope PM Abbott really rub’s Rudd’s nose in it by offering Gillard ambassador to UN or some other useless international job that Rudd dreams about. Now I’m interested to see whether polls start moving from 53-47 in next few days, in Libs’ favor, to about 54-46 to the Libs on election day which is what I anticipated would happen as Rudd’s balloon deflates. How about electioneering on “all his party colleagues hate him but they want you the public to buy the Labor party’s damaged goods”.
[Time for a new Coalition Government.]
So we can go way beyond screwing the pooch?
Actuaally i dont expect people to take these picks serious but here is my picj for this week polls
essentials
labor 51%
coaliton 49%
morgan
labor 54.5%
coalition 45.5%
neison to pop up
labor 51%
Coalition 49%
Crank
its because folks believe thay’re not being paid
As much as I am expecting a temporary dip in the polls for Labor, I am very unconvinced by some of those Reachtel figures. Abbott preferred PM? I don’t think so. On the mobile question, do any polling organisations poll mobiles?
I am expecting an initial blow out for the Coalition, to be reeled in during the campaign with a tight election in the end. Still believe a narrow Coalition win is the most likely result though.
just get the sense the coalition supporters Tisme,
Compact Crank are very nervous now the starters gun has been fired. the unlosable election has commenced and their man is a complete dud. light on policy and fumbles the ball under pressure.
TLBD – @2097
The Coalition are giving certainty of funding.
The ALP wanted to create a vast new bureaucracy to be imposed on State Schools creating uncertainty – the ALP has been forced to back down.
Wow
they wheeled in Mick…that’ll cost eleventy zillion in overtime
the polls labor will behind
is newsltd newspoll and some other pro coaliiton media polls
Mick77
You’re back! You disappeared for a while after your last smug Newspoll prediction (53-47 to Coalition) fell flat on its face.
Funny the times you choose to crawl out of the woodwork.:)
Kids are celebrating tonight. Youngest can vote and all are looking forward to seeing the back end of Rudd and labor…
The rules for debates at this election are somewhat different compared to previously. At past elections it was usually the Opposition leader challenging the PM to debates, in order to obtain air time.
This time, Rudd definitely has the upper hand in calling several times for Abbott to debate him. It definitely looks like Abbott is trying to avoid debates unless he has a sympathetic audience.
New2This
“Kids are celebrating tonight. Youngest can vote and all are looking forward to seeing the back end of Rudd and labor…”
At least, that’s what they’re telling their crackpot of a father.
Goodness me the PB lounge has become Calliphoridae central.
Who said the election was unlosable for the Coalition?
I’ve always believed the truism that Oppositions do not win elections – Governments lose them.
@New2This/2117
Is this why Kids do crime? The Liberals treat kids like trash?
What will happen when Abbott squibs on a debate.. Will Rudd simply do a one man show answering questions from the media? I’d like to see an audience get involved then.
New2This
It’s a disgrace to brainwash young children.
this from essential
last week% (down one). The issue is rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. Malcolm Turnbull is rated best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey,
===============================================================so how could reachtel have abbott in the 50s as preferred pm
William for the sake of your your profession don’t u think u should ask question s about how this was obtained
MY oh saw on tv a reach tel that had abbott as preferred PM in the 50.s
my word something remarkable must of happened in the last couple of days
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The hard heads know the poll figures depend on where the seats actually are.
If Rudd stands to win a swag of seats in Queensland, lose one or two in Tassie, hold the fort in WA and SA and maybe pick up one or two somewhere else, then he will hold government.
WA is a case in point.
All current seats held. Even money in Hasluck and only 2% plus to knock off in Swan.
All very, very doable.
The trick will be to hold/win in NSW.
If this happens, Labor will win.
The ABC has been harping on all day about the two seats the Independents have left ‘which will go to the Liberal/Nationals side of the ledger’ but have not mentioned either Melbourne or Wilkie’s seat in Tassie. While they may not be pick up for Labor at this point, they are beyond the reach of the conservatives well and truly.
I would suspect, for instance that if Labor wins with a majority of 4-5, the holders of these two seats are likely to support the government in any event.
The mountain for Labor is not as high as some would believe. However, seats have to be won.
[Kids are celebrating tonight. Youngest can vote and all are looking forward to seeing the back end of Rudd and labor…]
What is so fascinating about Rudd’s behind?
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Saturday, August 3, 2013 at 5:56 am | PERMALINK
Mark Kenny wouldn’t know his foot was on fire even if the smoke alarm started screeching.]
Well, looks like Mark Kenny was right after all!
Sep 7th it is, start the countdown folks! 🙂
Compact Crank
“Who said the election was unlosable for the Coalition?
I’ve always believed the truism that Oppositions do not win elections – Governments lose them.”
You’re already shifting goalposts. I’m delighted. 😉
[Kids are celebrating tonight. Youngest can vote and all are looking forward to seeing the back end of Rudd and labor]
there’s a billy mcmahon moment…gear …fab…groovy…tony abbott…yeah!!!!
lizzie – the Unions and ecofascists are the masters of brainwashing – I can’t believe some of the crap that my kids come home with that needs straightening out.
Shaft Kevin September seven…
@CC/2131
So you blame unions instead of bad parenting?
children should do their home work
my parents brainwashed me about the liberals
till I found out about national service and Vietnam
Compact Crank
“lizzie – the Unions and ecofascists are the masters of brainwashing – I can’t believe some of the crap that my kids come home with that needs straightening out.”
Examples please, laughs needed.
@2129 – I haven’t moved any goal posts – you’re making shit up -liar.
now this is a debate to look forward to…
[Michael Fullilove @mfullilove 2h
Foreign policy junkies: the @LowyInstitute will be hosting the foreign policy debate btw @bobjcarr and @JulieBishopMP this Wed 6pm. #auspol]
My Say
Yes, hard to make any sense of Essential when compared with this recent telephone poll by Channel 7. One, or both, have some odds things called.
@2135 – black arm band view of Australian History and global warming religious brain washing.
tricot our mountain is the media
My say I think you suffered the same re-programming as Meguire Bob…
[Shaft Kevin September seven]
there you go….stuck in the negative old politix
CC
I’m sad for the world if the future is in their hands.
Mick 77
Don’t you think that Abbott looks tired ?
Compact Crank
“@2129 – I haven’t moved any goal posts – you’re making shit up -liar.”
I get it mate, if I was in your position I wouldn’t have much faith in Abbott either. Kevin Rudd wins elections, Abbott loses them, glad you’re cottoning on to this.
Compact Crank
“@2135 – black arm band view of Australian History and global warming religious brain washing.”
Too predictable to be funny. Sorry facts irritate you, bro.
[ I can’t believe some of the crap that my kids come home with that needs straightening out.]
you’ve bred? that is scary….still, something to rebel against
The language is deteriorating early tonight. I may have to move my “bedtime” forward during this election period. 😛