The weekly BludgerTrack update erases the 0.5% edge the Coalition gained in the wake of last week’s Newspoll, and finds Labor the tiniest fraction more likely than the Coalition to win a majority of seats. Labor has made a net gain of two on the seat projection, Queensland again showing its sensitivity with a two-seat shift on the basis of a very small vote change and a second gain projected for Labor in Western Australia (though I’d be a bit careful with the smaller state results at the moment, polling at that level having become leaner recently). This has been counterbalanced by a one seat move to the Coalition in New South Wales, where the Labor score remains on the cusp of 25 and 26.
The primary and two-party vote results are all but identical to the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which is the weightiest of the new data points. Included as always are Morgan, which was unusually soft for Labor this week, and Essential, which retains its slight lean to the Coalition relative to the rest of the field but has perhaps been trending slightly to Labor over the past few weeks. The one very bad new poll for Labor, the weekend’s ReachTEL result showing Labor to lose three of its four Tasmanian seats, has been included in the state relativities calculation. While its inclusion has weakened Labor’s two-party vote projection in the state by nearly 3% in relative terms, the model is not persuaded that Lyons will be joining Bass and Braddon on the casualty list.
The trendlines on the sidebar now paint a picture of monotonous consistency since the Rudd restoration, the so-called “sugar hit” having endured long enough to offer the Coalition real cause for alarm. However, very close observation of the primary votes provides some indication of movement beneath the surface. A poll aggregator like BludgerTrack presumes to have a margin of error of a bit over 1%, and while this is founded on dubious assumptions, it at least gives a rough pointer to the size of movement that should and shouldn’t interest us. One move outside the range concerns the Greens, who opened their account under Rudd at around 9%, sagged nearly a full point by the time of the asylum seeker policy announcement (remembering the margin of error diminishes the further a result gets from 50%), and have now recovered back to the starting point.
The other noteworthy change involves the “others” vote, which started the year at around 10%, increased to 12.5% as Labor bled primary vote support in the last six months under Julia Gillard, snapped back to around 9% when Rudd returned, and has trended downwards over the past four weeks to its present 7.5%. Part of that may have been absorbed by the Coalition in a general trend resulting from the media losing interest in some of the minor players, but it seems intuitively likely that a greater share comes from Labor leaners who have been won over after initial hesitancy by Rudd’s political initiatives. There may have been some deflation in the Rudd honeymoon balloon going on concurrently, with the Coalition primary vote at least holding level and perhaps rising slightly, but Rudd’s evident political successes have at the very least cancelled it out.
New2This@3087
Glad you mentioned those Fib mis-nomers. Let’s quickly review them.
Home Insulation Program – successful according to 3 independent reports. Shonky contractors whose negligence contributed to industrial deaths being prosecuted.
BER – Successfully kept thousands in work and, except for a small number of cases, delivered value for money.
Grocery Watch, Fuel Watch – plug pulled before they incurred much expense.
Trade Training Centers – ? Are you referring to the Commonwealth run TAFEs Howard wanted to set up?
Live Cattle Cruelty – could have been handled a little better but results achieved and trade resumed.
Boats – let’s see how they go this month.
New2
You mean like never introducing Medicare? Oh wait ……
Zoidy @3085 US and Australian economies are fundamentally different. We cannot safely carry the same level of debt that the US can.
[Enjoy the votes while they last, a week, a month, a year perhaps? That sinking feeling in gut is your conscience and guess what? That does last]
And the silence nearly all Liberal supporters on this blog on this issue does not draw your ire nor even a cursory glance. One could suggest you are playing partisan politics with this.
Home insulation program Four kids died you jackass not to mention the houses razed and pensioners living in fear. Rudd admitted in his mea culpa … I get it
Mod Lib@3098
Oh OK, so now you are lying about being selective in your quotation.
It’s OK Mod, that is nowhere near as bad as your liking for people drowning. Now you stick true to that principle of yours. 👿
Nice response there Bemused.
And don’t forget that heaps of voters will be reminded of how proud they are of the new school halls/libraries etc when they go there to vote on whatever date it is.
Mod Lib
“When you have a real mother in front of your eyes being cruel doesn’t feel so right any more does it?
Its easy to demonise parents trying to do the best for their children when they are out of view…..when you see their faces, its a little harder to be cruel to them.”
True. Some might argue putting your kid on a leaky boat in rough seas is cruel as well, of course.
New2this
We’ll never see NDIS? It’s already here, idiot.
[Zoidy @3085 US and Australian economies are fundamentally different. We cannot safely carry the same level of debt that the US can]
Good thing we’re not then isn’t it. Which countries don’t have debt by the way?
Rudd spent the last three years being a complete prick to his labor team and Gillard and is now rewarded.
New2This
Never was a handle more apt.
New to this, alright.
I think it’s even doubtful the US can efficiently carry the level of public debt they carry. I don’t think a strategy of Australia trying to emulate US or Europe debt levels is a smart strategy.
I can’t see it happening but I suspect that unless Abbott dies a double back flip and pike and supports the NBN then come polling day a lot of people that answer ‘Yes’ to the polling about voting liberal will change to ensure the NBN gets completed.
Turnbull is being hammered. Hundreds of responses to a Facebook blog on the FTTH LNP alternative and not one in support.
https://m.facebook.com/malcolmturnbull/posts/10151851761561579
[And the silence nearly all Liberal supporters on this blog on this issue does not draw your ire nor even a cursory glance. One could suggest you are playing partisan politics with this.]
The silence about the Liberal supporters?
Haha 🙂
I have been having a field day by handcuffing the likes of Psephos and ShowsOn to the ultra Liberal supporters Truthy and Generic Person!
From ridiculing them, so many here have done a coimplete flip flop to claim that Truthy and Generic Person were right all along apparently!
Did you not notice that by doing that I was showing how dumb all were (Psephos, ShowsOn AND their companions Truthy and Generic Person?????).
I criticised those posters consistently for years on this blog as anyone who has been here for more than a microsecond will remember all too well.
Perhaps, New2This,
since you’re “new to this” you might get
started by acquainting yourself with the
facts.
If it’s not too much trouble that is.
As new2tbis doesn’t specify what he’s exactly new to, I’m going to guess it’s considered debate.
[And don’t forget that heaps of voters will be reminded of how proud they are of the new school halls/libraries etc when they go there to vote on whatever date it is.]
*laughs*
You’re about 3 years too late on that front.
New2This@3105
The Commonwealth does not administer State OH&S legislation.
Or do you want the Commonwealth to introduce Commonwealth regulation of that?
How does that fit with your mob’s continual bleats for less regulation?
Who is getting charged over those deaths? Any Commonwealth officials?
Rate of house fires due to insulation actually dropped as CSIRO established.
Mod Lib
“Did you not notice that by doing that I was showing how dumb all were (Psephos, ShowsOn AND their companions Truthy and Generic Person?????).”
You haven’t demonstrated anything of the sort, you just incessantly claim to.
How do you mean Confessions?
There are several new school halls in my own area, and various parents have made entirely unsolicited remarks in recent months about how great these facilies are.
What’s this about 3 years too late? A lot of people get to schools rarely, and some of these projects are not all that long since finished.
I think it’s a very significant factor in the way people will think about the Labor government.
@Mod Lib/3099
Yes, and what did most of the economic specialists said back in 2012 “It was dumb to promise a surplus”?
Yet Hockey is complaining and still complaining about Surplus – Hockey isn’t talking about delivering Surplus, he is complaining about his counterpart about not delivering it.
@New2This/3100
Gonksi is law.
NDIS is law.
In fact, I would go further: In a world with a whole lot of “virtual” stuff going on, these gleaming new school halls are very in-your-face reminders of the way that Labor helped keep this country from suffering the worst effects of the GFC. I’m in a highly marginal electorate and I am convinced the school halls success will play a significant role when it comes to voting day.
@New2This/3105
Home Installation was at fault of everyone involved, that is what the judge/report said.
Coalition Party want to remove safety/red tape can go right ahead.
[True. Some might argue putting your kid on a leaky boat in rough seas is cruel as well, of course.]
I can’t imagine the circumstances in which a parent would take that risk, but that is because I have never been so unfortunate to be in a situation where I feared for my life and was searching for the least catastrophic action to take.
The difference is that I will not demonise people who are fleeing a well founded fear of persecution.
I have steadfastly rejected the notion of being cruel to them.
Others here have gone from rejecting the cruelty, and now not only advocating for cruelty, but insulting those of us who never stopped rejecting the cruelty. However, it is not all cruelty, apparently, it is just some cruelty which is good, and other cruelty such as stopping a mother seeing her dead baby, is bad.
Flip
Flop
Votes
alias@3116
I don’t think it is actual knowledge of the facts that is the problem.
It is their penchant for lying about the facts and misrepresenting the truth.
@CC/3103
This is true, but the economics back in 2012 said surplus shouldn’t be a promise.
Even NAB say we don’t have enough debt.
AT # 3117:
small typo in the liar from Menzies House handle, should be News2This (we hack dead kids phones and lie on an industrial scale)
Well I enjoyed Husic telling Alberici to keep asking Pyne questions it was fun to watch Pyne twisting in the breeze
Goodnight
Mod Lib@3125
Yes, your position of favouring drowning people does have the advantage of simplicity.
And you could hardly say your mob have been consistent.
I want Pyne for Opposition Leader!
With him, how could Labor lose! 🙂
alias:
The new school halls meant jack last election. I’d bet they mean similarly this election, esp after 6 years of coalition whingeing about waste and mismanagement.
Mod Lib
“I can’t imagine the circumstances in which a parent would take that risk, but that is because I have never been so unfortunate to be in a situation where I feared for my life and was searching for the least catastrophic action to take.”
Maybe. I reckon the kid would still be alive if the mother in question took the risks seriously, though. Also was the mother’s life at risk in Indonesia? Or was it merely a very hard one?
It sucks this happened but for as long as people choose to get on boats their kids will be drowning.
Cud Chewer
I think it’s a very, very close contest between Abbott and Pyne as to who would be the more awful Opposition leader. A hair’s breadth in it.
Debt, who cares , its only heading to $18,000 per person in Aus. Shouldn’t be a prob. Someone will explain to the newborns why they have to pay it. Some one will also explain what we bought with it. But who cares lets rack up more after all someone else is going to have to pay.
@silmaj/3135
Debt is an issue only if you let it control you, and if you think short term not long term.
[In fact, I would go further: In a world with a whole lot of “virtual” stuff going on, these gleaming new school halls are very in-your-face reminders of the way that Labor helped keep this country from suffering the worst effects of the GFC.]
You remind me of me 3-4 years ago.
The coalition has successfully trashed Labor’s stimpac to the point where pink batts, school halls are code for waste and incompetence. s
Confessions
I disagree. As I say, various parents in my own area have commented about how great these facilities are. Granted, they may not necessarily equate these great new facilities with a competent and visionary Labor government, but it surely can’t hurt right?
And I think a key point is this: One of the LNP talking points is that Rudd is all talk, no implementation.
But hang on, these halls are there for all to see. And with the LNP embarrassingly signing on to “Better Schools”, this just underscores the point that Labor has strong vision on education.
I know the facts. I was sending letter after letter during HIP asking questions of garret and Rudd. No reply to this day.
No, Confessions, I don’t think the ‘waste and mismanagement’ angle hit home. Most people accept that Government delivered programmes are a little less efficient than those delivered by the private sector, but they are still glad to have them there.
davidwh@3113
They aren’t.
Thats the point.
International Corporate and financial leaders laugh and continue to laugh at tory and business ‘so called’ leaders on this.
Attentive viewers will also notice that Clines comments highlighting this was stripped from Fridays Fairfax articles – as apposed to the same articles the day before.
silmaj
“Debt, who cares , its only heading to $18,000 per person in Aus. Shouldn’t be a prob. Someone will explain to the newborns why they have to pay it. Some one will also explain what we bought with it. But who cares lets rack up more after all someone else is going to have to pay.”
Yeah, us. For the next five years or so. Hell, maybe even 10.
Difference it will make to this taxpayer’s life: 0. Difference it will make to a 5 or 10 year old? Less than that.
[Did you not notice that by doing that I was showing how dumb all were (Psephos, ShowsOn AND their companions Truthy and Generic Person?????)]
No, you were criticising them for embracing what once they opposed.
[What! no surplus?…… but Swany said so]
I’m starting to get the feeling Labor are getting Meguire Bob to do their books…
Well we had $165 billion of net debt before the latest economic revision and now it’s likely to go well over $200 billion so just how much is enough debt? An economist would probably say “it depends” on our ability to service and repay the debt and that is largely dependent on future economic factors unknown.
However I think we are still comfortable however we must be getting close to moving from comfortable to just a little twitchy.
@Sean/3144
So they left Coalition Party their books to you after WA Treasury rejecting Hockey?
@Davidwh/3145
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/we-have-a-debt-problem-says-nab-chief-20130801-2r29e.html
”Most investors around the world are up to their eyeballs in northern-hemisphere government paper. We have a unique window, as a AAA nation, with strong demand for AAA debt, to issue that debt and divert it to productive infrastructure.”
things like NBN etc.
[It sucks this happened but for as long as people choose to get on boats their kids will be drowning.]
The milk of human kindness doth overflow
New2This
“I know the facts. I was sending letter after letter during HIP asking questions of garret and Rudd. No reply to this day.”
Maybe they were too busy responding to the same ridiculous talking points in parliament. Look at Hansard.
Dave I agree we aren’t trying to emulate the US and Europe however those are the economies our politicians love to compare us to.