The weekly BludgerTrack update erases the 0.5% edge the Coalition gained in the wake of last week’s Newspoll, and finds Labor the tiniest fraction more likely than the Coalition to win a majority of seats. Labor has made a net gain of two on the seat projection, Queensland again showing its sensitivity with a two-seat shift on the basis of a very small vote change and a second gain projected for Labor in Western Australia (though I’d be a bit careful with the smaller state results at the moment, polling at that level having become leaner recently). This has been counterbalanced by a one seat move to the Coalition in New South Wales, where the Labor score remains on the cusp of 25 and 26.
The primary and two-party vote results are all but identical to the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which is the weightiest of the new data points. Included as always are Morgan, which was unusually soft for Labor this week, and Essential, which retains its slight lean to the Coalition relative to the rest of the field but has perhaps been trending slightly to Labor over the past few weeks. The one very bad new poll for Labor, the weekend’s ReachTEL result showing Labor to lose three of its four Tasmanian seats, has been included in the state relativities calculation. While its inclusion has weakened Labor’s two-party vote projection in the state by nearly 3% in relative terms, the model is not persuaded that Lyons will be joining Bass and Braddon on the casualty list.
The trendlines on the sidebar now paint a picture of monotonous consistency since the Rudd restoration, the so-called “sugar hit” having endured long enough to offer the Coalition real cause for alarm. However, very close observation of the primary votes provides some indication of movement beneath the surface. A poll aggregator like BludgerTrack presumes to have a margin of error of a bit over 1%, and while this is founded on dubious assumptions, it at least gives a rough pointer to the size of movement that should and shouldn’t interest us. One move outside the range concerns the Greens, who opened their account under Rudd at around 9%, sagged nearly a full point by the time of the asylum seeker policy announcement (remembering the margin of error diminishes the further a result gets from 50%), and have now recovered back to the starting point.
The other noteworthy change involves the “others” vote, which started the year at around 10%, increased to 12.5% as Labor bled primary vote support in the last six months under Julia Gillard, snapped back to around 9% when Rudd returned, and has trended downwards over the past four weeks to its present 7.5%. Part of that may have been absorbed by the Coalition in a general trend resulting from the media losing interest in some of the minor players, but it seems intuitively likely that a greater share comes from Labor leaners who have been won over after initial hesitancy by Rudd’s political initiatives. There may have been some deflation in the Rudd honeymoon balloon going on concurrently, with the Coalition primary vote at least holding level and perhaps rising slightly, but Rudd’s evident political successes have at the very least cancelled it out.
Lateline going to be fun tonight.
Mr Shadow Education having to explain the 180 after 2 years of no by saying yes to Gonski
@Mod Lib/3049
Liberals crash and burn, we do not need that.
That’s how you give economy’s “heart attacks”.
Take the NHS Health in the UK under Tories gov.
They got a big mess to clean up.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-23545742
Asylum policy Rudd, Gillard and Labors mess.
NBN disaster Rudd, Gillard, Windsor and labors mess.
ETS carbon tax Rudd, Gillard labors mess.
Need I go on. You can only polish a turd for so long.
Now Pyne v Husic Lateline
Mod Lib@3047
You really are jumping the shark tonight aren’t you Mod?
That is a decision by Indonesian authorities.
[Its not that there is a problem with accumulating debt]
That wasn’t so hard was it
SEPTEMBER 7
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pm-eyes-september-7-poll-20130802-2r52b.html
[At some stage you have to pay it back]
Do you? The US has been running a large debt position for the last 200years. Debt has worked for them for a long period of time and will continue to do so.
[New2This
Posted Friday, August 2, 2013 at 10:53 pm | PERMALINK
Asylum policy Rudd, Gillard and Labors mess.
NBN disaster Rudd, Gillard, Windsor and labors mess.
ETS carbon tax Rudd, Gillard labors mess.
Need I go on. You can only polish a turd for so long.]
Dont forget the Mining tax fiasco, and the surplus jokes!!
@New2This/3053
WA? is a Turd to Long?
guytaur:
I can’t imagine Pyne will experience any discomfort in taking whatever position he assumes on Lateline.
Mod, you have to ask the right questions first. The answers you get from the wrong questions are irrelevant :P.
Well there you have it, the spectator advocating the virtues of a $16 Trillion debt.
Thankfully, you guys wont be in power long enough to accumulate it, otherwise I would be worried, very, very worried!
[So are you guys happy that the grieving Tamil mother has been prevented from seeing her dead baby until the DNA testing proves she is the mother?
That kind of nastiness might stop folks getting on boats, so I assume you are all for it, eh]
Another of John Howard’s legacies. You rightly get stuck into the ALP, but you’re silent on the Libs involvement in it all.
[SEPTEMBER 7]
Meh, Kenny. When it’s on-the-drip Hartcher, wake me up.
🙂
Pyne lies: damaged the confidence of the international market. really AAA ratings from three ratings agencies record low borrowing rate on govt debt. Massive foreign investment in Aust on mining and energy projects. Complete and utter lie CPyne.
3037
I have not seen a political ad at a cinema but I have seen ads for other things.
I think that cinema ads could be a useful political tool for localised campaigns, particularly in suburban regions. I think they would be particularly useful in Melbourne in the next Victorian election because of the current state government governing for only 1 side of the Yarra.
[You really are jumping the shark tonight aren’t you Mod?
That is a decision by Indonesian authorities.]
So?
The question is whether or not you support it. If you are advocating being nasty to the asylum seekers trying to come here by boat, how good would it be to show the pix of the crying mother with the caption:
“and we didnt even let her see her dead baby. Haha. Thats what we will do to you if you dare come to Australia by boat”
That will stop the boats and that is all you guys want isn’t it?
Cruel to be kind, and all that…..
50 years later I still remember this one. Obviously an effective ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQwo4bpqO_E
[but you’re silent on the Libs involvement in it all.]
oh really?
[How much are we paying annually in interest repayments on this very small debt position?]
How much are we benefitting from this debt position? What if debt is essential to the healthy functioning of a capitalist system? Wouldn’t that just make you an ideological zealot?
3041
cud chewer
[Malcom getting a pasting. Not only intellectually dishonest but foolish trying to get away with stunts like that.]
Foolish in the extreme. What was he thinking?
Husic doing well. Maybe its just how poor Pyne has done.
Mod Lib@3068
Mod, I don’t support it, but neither I nor anyone else here has any influence on the Indonesian Govt so what’s your point?
[Well there you have it, the spectator advocating the virtues of a $16 Trillion debt.
Thankfully, you guys wont be in power long enough to accumulate it, otherwise I would be worried, very, very worried!]
No debunking your foolish vitriol on repaying debt which is a very damaging argument. Aust needs debt to fund infrastructure. Companies need debt. It is good management to have a level of debt to function appropriately and guess what 10-20% of GDP debt is nothing. In the US context they have a 100% of GDP debt position and they actually had more than that level after WWII. Please look at facts.
[and the surplus jokes]
You can never have too many jokes
[bemused
……
Mod, I don’t support it,]
You don’t support it?
WHAT?
Why?
Spectator clearly does not understand the fundamental differences between the US economy as global currency and the Australian economy which is subject to massive speculative currency flows.
OC:
Those arrows to Australia remind me of a coalition advert circa not too long ago!
The more things change etc….
And Mod, I read your earlier moronic claims that the Govt had lost $15B.
You know full well that the Govt has not lost a cent. What has happened is that Treasury revenue estimates have fallen.
So Mod, what services do you recommend cutting or taxes raised to bridge that gap?
And don’t rant about ‘waste’ or other such nonsense.
Alberici brings up LNP axing funds to car industry when Pyne starts his FBT Rant. Does not stop him for long
[bemused
Posted Friday, August 2, 2013 at 11:03 pm | PERMALINK
And Mod, I read your earlier moronic claims that the Govt had lost $15B.]
bemused:
The ALP government was positively boasting about being in surplus now.
Today the ALP government was proudly telling us we now have a $30+ Billion deficit.
Credibility = 0
Husic etaliates with how wtte of how hard is it to fill out log books
Redoing 3083
Husic retaliates with WTTE of how hard is it to fill out log books.
12 weeks out of five years
@CC/3078
Australia is also linked with Asia as much as USA.
e.g. I could have got yen at 95 earlier this year, but now it’s about ~88/89.
Mod Lib@3077
You know Mod, you play stupid really convincingly.
Because it seems a needless cruelty unless the body is in such a state that it would be unidentifiable visually and would further traumatise the parents.
I forgot to mention pink batts, school halls, computers in schools, grocery watch, fuel watch, trades training centers, the live cattle fiasco and did I mention the boats…
[oh really]
Pretty much. Not completely, but overwhelmingly so.
New2this
Gonski yesterday LNP claim its a disaster. Today its a unity position.
Flip floppers
Mod Lib@3082
I am on record as saying Swan was foolish to present an uncertain forecast into a promise.
However, you have not addressed the point about your idiotic claim that the govt had lost $15B when we both know it hasn’t.
[Because it seems a needless cruelty ]
Bingo.
When you have a real mother in front of your eyes being cruel doesn’t feel so right any more does it?
Its easy to demonise parents trying to do the best for their children when they are out of view…..when you see their faces, its a little harder to be cruel to them.
Husic laughing
Ed Husic is good. I like his style.
[Spectator clearly does not understand the fundamental differences between the US economy as global currency and the Australian economy which is subject to massive speculative currency flows.]
Nothing of the sort Compact. But it is good to see that you agree the US debt position is fine at 100% of GDP. You are clearly comfortable with Aust small debt position in comparison.
@Mod Lib/3082
So was Joe Hockey “Year after Year”, “First year in Goverment”.
That was two promises made on the back of Swan’s promise of Surplus.
Who is the idiots now?
Mod Lib@3091
Selective quoting Mod.
A fairly low rent trick even from you.
[forgot to mention pink batts, school halls, computers in schools, grocery watch, fuel watch, trades training centers, the live cattle fiasco and did I mention the boats…]
Your forgot the Gonski debarcle woops you’ve signed up to that one. what about NBN and NDIS.
Haha 🙂
When I quote your words, you claim it is selective quoting.
I completely understand why you are squirming bemused.
The problem is not me, though, the problem is that you have sold out principles for votes.
Enjoy the votes while they last, a week, a month, a year perhaps? That sinking feeling in gut is your conscience and guess what? That does last.
[zoidlord
Posted Friday, August 2, 2013 at 11:11 pm | PERMALINK
@Mod Lib/3082
So was Joe Hockey ]
Joe Hockey laughed when Swan said “these four surpus budgets we announce today” and he said “This ALP government will NEVER deliver a surplus”.
Hockey was right and the ALP was wrong.
Well on form with Labor we will never see Gonski. We will never see NDIS. Hospital reform pffft. On form the programs under Labor are either a disaster or undelivered promises in the never never. Oh and when in strife announce a train or second Sydney airport.