Galaxy: 50-50

Contrary to talk of stalled momentum for Kevin Rudd after a relatively weak Newspoll, a new Galaxy poll has Labor’s primary vote with a four in front and a dead heat on two-party preferred.

GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll in tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids has two-party preferred at 50-50, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 44% for the Coalition. This compares with a 51-49 lead for the Coalition at the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor up two on the primary vote and the Coalition steady. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J fills the blanks: “Greens Primary for this poll is 9. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in handling the issue of asylum seekers? Rudd Labor 40, Abbott Coalition 38. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in tackling climate change? Rudd Labor 45, Abbott Coalition 31 Which of the two party leaders do you believe has the best vision for the future? Rudd 46, Abbott 36. July 23-25. 1015 sample.

We also have the Launceston Examiner reporting ReachTEL polls of 600 respondents in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons show the Liberals continuing to lead in all three, although details provided in the article are sketchy.

UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham has kindly passed on results of the ReachTEL poll of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. The polls were conducted on Thursday from respective sample sizes are 626, 659 and 617, for margins of error of around 4%. The results unusually feature personal ratings for both the Labor incumbents and Liberal candidates, which show a) implausibly high recognition ratings for all concerned (only 1.5% of Braddon respondents had never heard of their Liberal candidate, former state MP Brett Whiteley), b) surprisingly weak results for the incumbents, and c) remarkable uniformity from electorate to the next.

Bass (Labor 6.7%): Geoff Lyons (Labor) 34.7%, Andrew Nikolic (Liberal) 48.9%, Greens 9.4%. Two party preferred: 54.0%-46.0% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 50.6%, Abbott 49.4%. Geoff Lyons: 25.6%-39.8%-30.3% (favourable-neutral-unfavourable). Andrew Nikolic: 43.3%-24.0%-24.6%.

Braddon (Labor 7.5%): Sid Sidebottom (Labor) 34.6%, Brett Whiteley (Liberal) 51.3%, Greens 7.4%. Two party preferred: 56.8%-43.2% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 51.2%, Abbott 48.8%. Sid Sidebottom: 27.4%-37.8%-33.1%. Brett Whiteley: 42.7%-30.5%-25.3%.

Lyons (Labor 12.3%): Dick Adams (Labor) 32.3%, Eric Hutchison (Liberal) 46.8%, Greens 10.2%. Two party preferred: 54.4%-45.6% to Liberal. Rudd 50.7%, Abbott 49.3%. Dick Adams: 26.8%-34.3%-35.7%. Eric Hutchison: 36.8%-29.3%-18.2%.

UPDATE 3: More numbers from last night’s Galaxy poll. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-34, but Malcolm Turnbull holds a 46-38 lead over Rudd.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50. The poll finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue, with Labor on 25% (up eight on mid-June), the Coalition on 26% (down 12) and the Greens on 6% (down one). The issue is rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. Malcolm Turnbull is rated best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and there are further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,216 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

Comments Page 42 of 45
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  1. a thoughtful piece by John Menadue, worth reading in full

    [In my blog of July 20, I referred to the Regional Settlement Agreement with PNG. With some reservations I described it as the least-worst option. Some were surprised at my comments. I wish it were otherwise, but in the toxic and poisonous political debate over refugees since John Howard’s time, we have had to face up to many unpalatable facts.

    The coalition has been the principal cause of this toxic situation. It broke with bipartisanship on refugees because it felt it was to its political advantage to focus our fears on the foreigner. I don’t think the coalition has genuinely wanted the boats to stop whilst ever it was in opposition. It was political manna from heaven to have the boat arrivals continue.

    The Greens have taken a “holier-than-thou” political position and have sided with Tony Abbott in the Senate on the key issue of the agreement with Malaysia. The Greens and many NGOs have wanted the government to undertake a political ‘mission impossible’.

    The government has failed to provide political leadership or rebutted the crude politics of the coalition. So paralysed by boat arrivals it has failed to develop effective ‘upstream’ policies to reduce boat arrivals on our doorstep. These upstream policies offer the best prospect of success. I will refer to them below.

    ]
    http://johnmenadue.com/blog/?p=629

  2. guytaur

    Assange’s only record will be that’s he’s always seriously wanted to get up peoples noses.

    Be happy – he’s succeeded.

    The resolution is just a footnote now – sooner or later he will have to come out.

  3. CM

    Pretty much to the point I would think.

    Many have indicated, even before Rudd II came on the scene, that NSW and Qld was likely to be the places the election would be won and lost.

    Mind you, the Tassie seats are a worry as three seats are three seats.

  4. Ratsak @ 1967 I’d love to see what the Tampa/Pacific solution approvals were back leading into the 2001 election.

    From memory, pretty much the same as those you quote for the PNG option.

  6. 1808
    ltep
    [>I’m a huge fan of Gillard, but I’ll willingly be a ‘friend’ of Rudd or anybody else who might save the NBN from the clutches of the destructive liar Abbott.

    That’s how I see it too. I’ve always disliked Rudd, but whilst the Coalition maintain a policy of rolling back or stopping the NBN in any way I will not vote for them. It may be selfish or whatever, but I truly think it will make life better.]

    Anybody who stands in the way of the NBN proper, is the enemy, far as I am concerned.

    (It is also not selfish. It is one of the most critical, and urgently needed, pieces of physical infrastructure Australia could build. It will benefit all of us like very few public policies could.)

  7. I can’t believe Tasmania is looking so bad for Labor?

    Don’t they realise that they’re going to get shafted out of their GST allocation if the Coalition wins?

    Dumbest State in Australia – toss up between Tassie and QLD?

    *catch u later

  11. absolutetwaddle@1991

    Toorak Toff

    “Most communists were idealists and seekers of a better way.”

    As were Nazis. Full of lofty ideals.

    Rubbish!

    Nazism was a racist murderous ideology with no redeeming features.

  15. ratsak, bemused,

    Rounding the result of a computation that took as input already rounded numbers is a good way to introduce – or if done repeatedly, accumulate – errors. Alternatively, meaningless digits are not just restricted to lying to the right of the decimal point (e.g. who’s to say that that units, tens, hundreds or thousands are meaningful when counting things in the millions or up).

    Don’t be prejudiced against fractional digits! 😛

  17. guytaur – I can’t be bothered on Assange.

    We must be due for a new attempted stunt though.

    Will the cold get worse, etc.

  18. Ctar

    I am only bothered with Assange when he gets persecuted for having a tech solution to the anonymous drop.

    For the rest I agree. His latest stunt is his Senate run.

  20. ShowsOn

    [WOAH! Fran Barlow is in full Michel Foucault mode today!]

    From which I conclude that you have never read Foucault, or any of the post-structuralists.

  22. [I can’t believe Tasmania is looking so bad for Labor?

    Don’t they realise that they’re going to get shafted out of their GST allocation if the Coalition wins?

    Dumbest State in Australia – toss up between Tassie and QLD?

    *catch u later]

    Their economy is languishing and they have an ages old Labor government that is suffering from a bit of NSW Labor disease. There’s anger against the party there right now. Also, on the topic of the economy, it’s natural that voters would start fishing for an alternative.

  23. Thanks for the link to Bernard Keene’s piece on refugee policy, which I agree is well written. It matches my own views that it is no longer adequate to express compassionate sentiments and argue for policies that are not sustainable. Feel good policies do not always do good.

    You can make policy to keep an interest group happy and still not do any good for the public as a whole.

    it is akin to foreign aid, where those “sponsor a child” programs are very popular. While the child may be helped, and the donor feels good, millions of other poor remain in need. Spending the same money providing a well for clean water for a village might be a far better use of aid dollars. (In fairness many of the better sponsorship programs like through Oxfam do exactly that.) But it lacks the feel good factor for the donor.

    I see the asylum seeker debate in similar terms. In terms of acting as a perverse incentive for others to take advantage of, it can lead to bad overall outcomes, even if good for the individuals who receive a new home.

    In terms of the “feel good” factor, it may make those fighting for refugee settlement benefits (they are not rights) feel they are doing good. But in their fight they create many costs for the whole society, and only help a tiny fraction of the problem group. Feeling good, does not mean you are doing good.

  26. 2032
    ShowsOn
    [{The Coalition} are trying to change the debate to something else cos they realise on actual policy they’ve been snookered.]

    Yep. Being able to hitch a free political ride on the back of the unauthorised boat arrivals was their one big ‘policy’ trump card, and they have just had it torn from them and shredded in their faces.

    Couldn’t happened to a nicer bunch of cesspit dwellers.

    Now maybe debate can focus more on other issues, like economics, education, health, and especially the NBN.

  28. Henry

    Tasmanians voted Labor State when Howard was PM so yes I would say they can.

    Remember all Tasmanian polling is small samples and done by News Limited.

  29. Boerwar – you seem to be (recently?) fond of the word “fulsome”. It sticks out because it’s a tricky word – while it does superficially mean ‘abundant’, it’s generally used as a quite negative description – ie over the top to the point of insincerity; fawning; offensively excessive.

    Fulsome praise is not something you would want to receive.

    (Since I don’t want to talk about boats or Rudd or much about current politics, a bit of linguistic pedantry is about all I can muster for Pollbludger these days).

  30. showson and justme

    You have just described why I can live with the PNG solution. Its the bottom of the barrel.

    The only way is up approach as I see it.

  31. Can one of the Labor supporters tell us what is going to happen with the 25,000 illegals sent to the “back of the queue” in the last 12 months?

    Can I assume Labor will now let them jump the queue to the front of the queue now and give into people smugglers once again?

  32. [So it seems NSW people can distinguish between state and federal issues but not our tasmanian cousins it seems.]

    Every state is capable of distinguishing between the two. Every state is capable of mixing the two.

    It depends on how angry they are. If a state has a Labor government and they are really angry with it, then Labor will be a bad name in that state on both levels (same with the Coalition). It also works the other way – a really unpopular federal government can hurt their party at the state level.

    OTOH, if there’s a desire to change a government but it’s not an angry one, voters generally can distinguish between the two levels.

  35. [I can’t believe Tasmania is looking so bad for Labor?]

    Labor and their Green puppet masters have destroyed the Tassie economy, whats so hard to believe about it?

    8.1% unemployment, 0% population growth(everyone is leaving) and massive state debt… just the Labor/Greens utopia the Tassie people have always wanted.

  36. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-29/maccallum-hockeys-costings-farce-gets-another-outing/4849878

    [And of course there is unlikely to be a hung parliament this time, with independents needing to be brought on side. But there just might be; and in any case, the electorate, having been badly stung three years ago, is likely to be a bit more sceptical of Hockey’s and Abbott’s claims to have found truly honest, transparent and believable endorsement this time around.

    Still, they will have their defenders. While most of the media reported Hockey’s announcement with some incredulity (one obvious comment was that if he did not trust or believe Treasury, he might have some difficulty administering the portfolio), The Australian ran a small story on page two by its economics editor, David Uren, under the heading: “Hockey weeds out rubbery figures.”

    Now there’s one institution the Coalition can always rely on.]

  37. guytaur@2063

    bemused

    Agree with you 100% @ 2061

    I am following WWII Tweets from 1941 and it is a real eye opener. I am learning a lot.

    When you see details like this yesterday; “Jewish women & chilren of Mogliev being deported- with SS killing squads close behind.” you get the picture of the true nature of the beast.

  38. Sean

    [Can one of the Labor supporters tell us what is going to happen with the 25,000 illegals ]

    They’re sleeping at your place tonight and expecting breakfast tomorrow.

    On ya bike.

  40. Carey Moore@2082


    So it seems NSW people can distinguish between state and federal issues but not our tasmanian cousins it seems.


    Every state is capable of distinguishing between the two. Every state is capable of mixing the two.

    It depends on how angry they are. If a state has a Labor government and they are really angry with it, then Labor will be a bad name in that state on both levels (same with the Coalition). It also works the other way – a really unpopular federal government can hurt their party at the state level.

    OTOH, if there’s a desire to change a government but it’s not an angry one, voters generally can distinguish between the two levels.

    to that point though Carey, state labor in NSW is still on the nose as the poll suggests, yet the fed govt in NSW is doing a lot better.
    does that kind of contradict what you are saying?
    Tassie needs a mini stimulus from the federal govt.
    Maybe free groceries for all tasmanians for a year?

  41. JV ‘We need to fund and support a UN facility in Indonesia to the level at which it can be a regional processing centre. That is the real key to the terrible situation the major parties have constructed around racism.

    I don’t see how that will help the asylum seekers. I don’t think their primary aim is to be classified as a refugee. I would suggest that the current desire to be classified as such By Australia is so that they can stay in Australia. Being classified in Indonesia doesn’t help them (except for the minority that may be selected by Australia as part of our 20,000 intake).

    Even if they were classified as refugees in Indonesia, the same pull factors would be there to encourage them to board leaky boats and head south.

  42. DisplayName@2065

    ratsak, bemused,

    Rounding the result of a computation that took as input already rounded numbers is a good way to introduce – or if done repeatedly, accumulate – errors. Alternatively, meaningless digits are not just restricted to lying to the right of the decimal point (e.g. who’s to say that that units, tens, hundreds or thousands are meaningful when counting things in the millions or up).

    Don’t be prejudiced against fractional digits!

    So when does the ‘Fractional Digit Liberation Front’ have it’s official launch? 😉

  43. [Can one of the Labor supporters tell us what is going to happen with the 25,000 illegals sent to the “back of the queue” in the last 12 months?]

    Your number is a bit rubbery as usual, but they will be treated in accordance with the policy in place when they arrived, or maybe they will chose to go to PNG to speed up their resettlement as they have a few more years to wait on Nauru or CI.

  44. Australia should pay New Zealand to annexe Tasmania, the Northern Territory, and South Australia inland of, but not including, the Murray River and Kangaroo Island.

    A hefty premium would make it worth their while.

  45. lizzie@2069

    bemused

    WAGS & SWAGS
    I was delighted to see you “make a funny”. A rare occasion

    You can’t be paying attention to my posts.

    Actually, I was just repeating what I was taught by a very funny guy. 😛

  48. [Australia should pay New Zealand to annexe Tasmania, the Northern Territory, and South Australia inland of, but not including, the Murray River and Kangaroo Island.

    A hefty premium would make it worth their while.]

    Perhaps we could double the national IQ and just export you.

  49. PeeBee

    Processing in Indonesia with a decision yes refugee no not refugee helps Australia..

    No people smugglers and drowning. Save huge amounts on detention facilities.

    No wonder its a long term goal for Labor. Remember PMKR is already on this track and has got Indonesia’s SBY to agree to talks.

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