GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll in tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids has two-party preferred at 50-50, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 44% for the Coalition. This compares with a 51-49 lead for the Coalition at the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor up two on the primary vote and the Coalition steady. More to follow.
UPDATE: James J fills the blanks: “Greens Primary for this poll is 9. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in handling the issue of asylum seekers? Rudd Labor 40, Abbott Coalition 38. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in tackling climate change? Rudd Labor 45, Abbott Coalition 31 Which of the two party leaders do you believe has the best vision for the future? Rudd 46, Abbott 36. July 23-25. 1015 sample.
We also have the Launceston Examiner reporting ReachTEL polls of 600 respondents in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons show the Liberals continuing to lead in all three, although details provided in the article are sketchy.
UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham has kindly passed on results of the ReachTEL poll of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. The polls were conducted on Thursday from respective sample sizes are 626, 659 and 617, for margins of error of around 4%. The results unusually feature personal ratings for both the Labor incumbents and Liberal candidates, which show a) implausibly high recognition ratings for all concerned (only 1.5% of Braddon respondents had never heard of their Liberal candidate, former state MP Brett Whiteley), b) surprisingly weak results for the incumbents, and c) remarkable uniformity from electorate to the next.
Bass (Labor 6.7%): Geoff Lyons (Labor) 34.7%, Andrew Nikolic (Liberal) 48.9%, Greens 9.4%. Two party preferred: 54.0%-46.0% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 50.6%, Abbott 49.4%. Geoff Lyons: 25.6%-39.8%-30.3% (favourable-neutral-unfavourable). Andrew Nikolic: 43.3%-24.0%-24.6%.
Braddon (Labor 7.5%): Sid Sidebottom (Labor) 34.6%, Brett Whiteley (Liberal) 51.3%, Greens 7.4%. Two party preferred: 56.8%-43.2% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 51.2%, Abbott 48.8%. Sid Sidebottom: 27.4%-37.8%-33.1%. Brett Whiteley: 42.7%-30.5%-25.3%.
Lyons (Labor 12.3%): Dick Adams (Labor) 32.3%, Eric Hutchison (Liberal) 46.8%, Greens 10.2%. Two party preferred: 54.4%-45.6% to Liberal. Rudd 50.7%, Abbott 49.3%. Dick Adams: 26.8%-34.3%-35.7%. Eric Hutchison: 36.8%-29.3%-18.2%.
UPDATE 3: More numbers from last night’s Galaxy poll. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-34, but Malcolm Turnbull holds a 46-38 lead over Rudd.
UPDATE 4: Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50. The poll finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue, with Labor on 25% (up eight on mid-June), the Coalition on 26% (down 12) and the Greens on 6% (down one). The issue is rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. Malcolm Turnbull is rated best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and there are further questions on workplace productivity.
psephos
Yep.
I assume that there is a further issue in that the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is not quite ‘real’ for somewhere in the order of millions of people.
ruawake@1940
That impression of precision by going to a decimal place reminds me of some training I once did on estimation where I was introduced to the concept of the WAG and SWAG.
The WAG (most estimates) was a Wild Arsed Guess.
The SWAG was the ‘Scientific Wild Arsed Guess’ which was simply the WAG expressed to 2 decimal places to give the appearance of accuracy.
Going to a decimal place is rather misleading IMHO.
shellbell
Thanks.
BW @1888 – I see no problem with moving to an ETS one year early. It’s not Kevin Rudd’s fault that the international Carbon price is so low. That will be corrected in due course. It’s better than no Carbon Price plus Direct Inaction. If the move makes the difference between Australia acting on Climate Change (however imperfectly), and effectively withdrawing from constructive action for a decade or more under Coalition governments (on the poll figures that Ms Gillard was getting) then so be it.
Asylum seekers – I am less happy with that one. But again, like drug lords, cyber hackers and the tax avoidance industry, the people-smugglers’ modus operandi and business model is evolving faster than those who would stop or regulate them can keep up. A couple of thousand arrivals a year (as it was until a few years ago) was not a problem. 25,000+ p.a. is damaging the integrity and community support of our migration program generally and our refugee program in particular. That plus the drownings and the strain on our naval resources is not sustainable. In 2008, Kevin Rudd did the right thing, based upon known and reasonably forseable facts and supported by the Opposition (although they don’t remind us of that now). In 2013, with the facts as they now are, something drastic had to be done. Yes I have my doubts but there are no nice solutions.
JV
Yes it may be too dangerous in the place they are seeking to leave but in traveling to Australia how many embassies do they pass.
We have NGO’s on the ground in places like Afghanistan that might be able to provide assistance without the need for people to pay thousands of dollars to criminals for a dangerous boat ride.
Gough Whitlam, arguably our greatest reformist PM, famously said: “Only the impotent are pure.”
Girls seeking education in Pakistan can be in fear of persecution.
Seeking education for them can get you shot
Yes, we know that.
Yet many were happy to leave the Taliban in place.
Of all the positive polls over the last month, the fact that Essential is now basically 50-50 and improving gives me the most confidence about Labor’s position.
Then there’s this on the difficulty of carrying papers when fleeing persecution (A few people around here seem to have ‘lost’ their capacity for research and reading all of a sudden):
[Asylum seekers arriving by boat are fleeing persecution.
They come from countries like Iran, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka where opponents of the government or ethnic minorities are routinely arrested, tortured and killed.
If they are caught before they can get away or in a country that does not accept asylum seekers,they will be returned and handed over to their government. Having tried to flee, the asylum seeker is viewed as a traitor as well as an opponent of the government and could be subjected to even worse treatment.
For these reasons, asylum seekers often move without identity documents so if they are caught,there is a chance they can still get away. Sometimes asylum seekers need false identity documents to be able to get away safely, in this case, they destroy the documents once they no longer need them so they or the people who helped them get the false documents don’t get into trouble.]
Essential Report:
PNG deal Approve 61, Disapprove 28
ALP voters 75-16
Libs 58-32
Greens 32-62
This is why the polls have stayed high for ALP, the majority approve of PNG “solution”
shellbell
‘I suspect the powers of the AFL concerning suspension and other punishments are carefully crafted and broad that any appeal would be difficult.’
Reports today indicate that Hird’s legal team have been systematically challenging the AFL’s behaviour during the investigation.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/james-hirds-lawyers-in-war-of-words-with-afl/story-fni5f6kv-1226687168808
I assume that this is designed to provide a basis of appeal on the fitness of the incumbents to use the AFL’s powers fairly and/or legally.
I note in this respect that there have been ‘rumblings’ about the AFL/ASADA nexus as partners in the investigation, to some extent, provides at least some degree of actual or perceived conflict for the AFL vis-a-vis its dealings with Essendon.
mexican
Julian Assange is being persecuted by the United States. See closing comments by prosecutor in Manning Trial.
Each case of an asylum seeker has to be assessed individually
Anyone wanting to defend Lee Rhiannon must first remember that she is really Lee Brown of the notorious communist Brown family. Her parents joined the Communist Party when it was a proudly Stalinist party. They could not have been members without being Stalinists. If Lee is willing to lie about that, what else is she willing to lie about?
jv
Do you have a view about the proportion of boat borne travellers who are gaming the sytem in order to expedite a backdoor access to Australian citizenship?
I would include under this heading those who seek actively to deceive the refugee assessors by means of false documentation or no documenetation or by means of lies about their personal circumstances.
Let’s use the last ten years as the time frame.
None? Some but less than one hundred? Hundreds? Thousands? Tens of thousands?
[Going to a decimal place is rather misleading IMHO.]
If the ALP were at 49.6 it would be 50-50. Its called rounding and its why some figures do not add up to 100. 😛
[From Essential
PNG asylum seeker policy: Approve 61%, Disapprove 28%]
I’d love to see what the Tampa/Pacific solution approvals were back leading into the 2001 election. It’s a pretty clear winner with the voting public. Greens can please themselves. They can rend their garments and gnash their teeth, but they have to preference Labor or else they’ll be voting for a smaller refugee intake, no carbon pricing and pretty much open slather environmental vandalism.
Plenty of the watermelons will be stupid enough to believe voting for Abbott will help bring on the revolution and the peace love and mung beans perfect government of their dreams will grow from the ashes, but probably not enough to hurt Labor at this election.
mexicanbeemer
You think those fleeing can waltz into an Australian embassy in Pakistan or Indonesia and get a visa? They cannot. If they could, then they would, which tells you they can’t.
ratsak
I see you use the words of denigration for those whom have a different view.
Guilty conscience on your part? If not do not denigrate. Just accept different viewpoint that you think is wrong
Bernard Keane with some interesting comments on the whole asylum seeker issue.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/07/29/let-them-all-come-is-stop-the-boats-for-unthinking-progressives/
JV
Why can’t they visit the Australian embassy in Indonesia?
Are there no other embassies in the region.
If they can find a smuggler surely they can find another way.
Galaxy’s 50-50 result is published on Page 6 of Adelaide’s Sunday Mail, edited by Kate Ellis’s husband, David Penberthy.
No doubt a good result for the Coalition would have been splashed on the front page.
Still, with Labor languishing in Tasmania and still expected to lose seats in NSW, it’s no wonder the PM is keeping his powder dry.
BW
[I assume that this is designed to provide a basis of appeal on the fitness of the incumbents to use the AFL’s powers fairly and/or legally.]
Looks pretty thin if that is the plan.
“Only the impotent are pure.”
One of the great man’s greatest quotes.
mexican
Indonesia has people in camps. Not free to go to Embassy. If free Indonesia would be a destination country.
I agree with Bemused that the use of a decimal point is inferring an awarranted accuracy, but Rua’s point is still right. The only way a steady Labor PV, -1 Lib PV, and Greens +2 PV can come out as a steady 2PP is if there are some close run things in the roundings.
It’s quite possible that in the raw numbers the PV has moved up to .9% and not yielded a move in the rounded number. (ie 48.5 to 49.4%), or that say the -1% against the Coalition was only 0.1% (44.5% to 44.4%).
But in the real world it is simply another piece of data indicating a very tight contest and that the rightards blowing their loads over Newspoll being the end of the honeymoon should probably call a 1800 number for help with the problem.
Guytaur
Are there no other embassies in the region?
Clearly this highlights the real problem, the complete and other failure of the UN.
The EMC PDF
http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_130729.pdf
The party best to handle asylum seekers arriving by boat mirrors Galaxy. ALP and Coalition pretty much equal. None of the above slightly ahead. I’d say this issue has been neturalised and the more the Coalition go on about it, the more they’ll be looking out of touch
Toorak , I thought nsw was looking like possible gains for alp?
Fran Barlow
“These are, in short, mere consequences of boss class rule.”
I just pinched myself to make sure I wasn’t dreaming of being at an ISO meeting.
*shudder*
mexicanbeemer
[Why can’t they visit the Australian embassy in Indonesia?]
Are there no other embassies in the region.
If they can find a smuggler surely they can find another way.]
Because they must be assessed by UNHCR to be a refugee before they can apply for a visa. Otherwise, no visa. (Please don’t ask why they don’t ‘simply’ apply for that)
[Greens 32-62]
So 32% of Green voters are also racists?
There’s a cheeky “Preferred Liberal leader” question in there too with results that are what we already know: Turnbull walloping Abbott
To smear someone as the daughter of “the notorious communist Brown family” is pretty nasty.
We are what we are, not what our parents were. Most communists were idealists and seekers of a better way.
J.V
I wasn’t going to ask that for the UNHCR has proven itself to be a complete waste of space.
Seems clear where ALP need to go now, according to Essential 35% of the “Invest more in skills and education”.
Followed by 21% want more flexibility.
mexican
You are the one arguing papers accessible. Up to you to prove it not me. I just pointed out to you why it is not the case in Indonesia.
Of course what you are doing is arguing numbers not stopping people smugglers.
To stop people smugglers you need only do one of two things. Deterrence as in PNG. or the opposite and process in Indonesia and fly accepted to Australia and rejected back home or to third country that accepts as we do now. Those appealing can do so while in Indonesian camp. Either way no customers for people smugglers.
Numbers a whole different argument
guytaur – Assange and Manning ‘persecuted’?
I think the US Govt is seeking to prosecute rather than persecute.
If they thought that the US Govt was not going to come after them them must be in the ‘not very smart’ group.
Pithicus, just going by the betting, which has Labor behind in three of its seats.
ratsak
“Plenty of the watermelons will be stupid enough to believe voting for Abbott will help bring on the revolution and the peace love and mung beans perfect government of their dreams will grow from the ashes, but probably not enough to hurt Labor at this election.”
No man, government is like, the PROBLEM. What we neeeeed is like, Australian society to be reorganised along pre-Stalin Soviet lines. Just you wait and see man, any day now Australians will wake up and be led to this by my proto-Trotskyist groupuscule!
Toorak Toff
“Most communists were idealists and seekers of a better way.”
As were Nazis. Full of lofty ideals.
Ctar
Its persecution. Assange is NOT a US citizen even if you accept the baloney that publishers should be prosecuted.
Next its the Guardian’s Greenwald for doing same with Snowden.
Guytaur
I love it when you twist things.
No, i am asking are there any other embassies in the region.
We have a number of embassies and NGO’s throughout the region and i was asking how many there were.
Historically to seek Asylum is done in an embassy, so how many are there and how accessible are they.
This is not about numbers, its about process
Time for Kevin to announce ‘boot camps’ for young bludgers and nail Tony’s coffin shut.
The punters absolutely love this stuff.
PNG; 61% approve
Boot Camps for dole bludgers; 98% approve….would be my guess.
Come on Kev you know it makes sense. Do it before Tony does.
Well to restate the bleedin obvious, the alp are 2 behind already with windsor and oakshotte’s seats, so at least 2 need to be gained to break even.
How would I rate Tony Abbott against the following…
(1) honesty
(2) integrity
(3) loyalty
(4) respect for others
(5) committment to values
(6) committment to principles
(7) committment to policies.
I rate Abbott on a par with Ivan Milat.
My choices for PM are Rudd or Abbott.
I choose Rudd.
If Abbott wins by a narrow margin, I will assume it is because of the childish decisions made by many alleged Labor supporters to vote informal.
No liberal voter will ever be so stupid as to vote informal.
MB
Process is Australian Government to sort out in line with our legal system
That has said most are genuine refugees. We have actual figures decided by our legal system on that. Claims by DIAC treat with extreme caution that culture needs to be purged.
…and 3 lost in tasmania….possibly 4….
that’s what I call starting from a long way back
MB
I also note you did not like my pointing out its numbers that count alright. The number of customers that people smugglers get.
mexicanbeemer
The UN’s performance depends on the member states. No point in criticising the organisation as some independent entity – it is derived from us and all other member nations.
We need to fund and support a UN facility in Indonesia to the level at which it can be a regional processing centre. That is the real key to the terrible situation the major parties have constructed around racism.