ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition

A second post-Ruddstoration ReachTEL result finds little change on the first, and confirms the impression that Malcolm Turnbull is strongly favoured over both the current contenders.

ReachTEL has published results of an automated phone poll of 2922 respondents across the country which has the Coalition leading 51-49, down from 52-48 in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change, from primary votes of 39.3% for Labor (up 0.5%, 45.4% for the Coalition (up 0.3%) and 8.3% for the Greens (down 0.4%). ReachTEL shows Kevin Rudd with an unusually narrow 52.4-47.6 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but the knife is nonetheless turned on Abbott by a result on voting intention under a Malcolm Turnbull leadership which has the Coalition lead at 58-42. Turnbull is also favoured 65-35 over Rudd as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,388 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Bemused. your scenario has ’em *on* boats already.
    the whole idea is to eliminate that step.

    Get on a Boat, you go to PNG.

  2. Izatso
    [The Boats must stop, the manus effect has to be seen to be Final]
    I think that is setting the bar too high. We are dealing with organised crime here, and I doubt they will give up easily. People have been doing this for years, and a few will keep trying for a while. If the policy greatly reduces the boats, that will still be a success. The other key point is that we are setting up a process to ensure these issues are sorted out with our neighbours as a region, which I think will also do a lot to stop the issue degenerating into fodder for radio shock jocks.

    Hopefully a year from now, if Alan Jones or some other radio madman asks Rudd why can’t we have policy xyz to stop the last trickle of boats, the answer should be,
    “when you can convince me that the leaders of Indonesia, Malaysia and PNG all agree with your xyz policy and they all agree to jointly enforce it to make it effective across the region, then I will listen to you.”

  3. It’s a bit fraudulent for Nauru to sign the Convention when they can’t possibly meet its requirements. It’s a barren coral atoll inhabited by 9,300 people of whom about 800 have jobs, nearly all paid out of Australian government aid. Before 2007 the detention centre was in fact the country’s largest employer.

  5. izatso?@2151

    Bemused. your scenario has ‘em *on* boats already.
    the whole idea is to eliminate that step.

    Get on a Boat, you go to PNG.

    I understand that.

    But the deterrence has had its effect if the boats start turning back and then stop departing.

    That solution has no capacity constraints and is better than actually having to send a lot of AS to PNG.

  6. The inimitable Geoff Boycott sums up Australia’s cricketers.

    “Meanwhile it seems Geoff Boycott hasn’t mellowed overnight in his opinion on the batting from both sides.

    “They couldn’t batter fish in a fish and chip shop. England isn’t batting well and Australia is batting worse.

    “I don’t think [Australia are] that talented but they’re not as bad as they’re playing but when you put together bad errors, stupid mistakes and … they look appalling.”

    Well then.

  7. Socrates, agree….. but it has to be seen as rigid from day 1, and ever so.
    Yes ! they are better bastards.which is why they will try it on, on why this procedure is established as inflexible and enforcable. no good being seen as wishy washy, or averse to bloodshed either.

    you step on a boat, you’re going to PNG.

  9. 2153

    They only signed because pro-Nauru Abbott needed them to because of his maneuvering against the Malaysia rendition scheme.

  11. Izatso

    Yes the basicpolicy principles should not change. No Australian visa for boat arrivals is a fundamental part of that.

  14. Someone earlier linked to Australian Politics and what a great article it is. Much in it to delight confessions and izatso?. 👿

    [Rudd struck another blow against Gillard and pushed Abbott just a bit more to the edge of the electoral canvas.

    He did it in the face of a coalition that sees its best laid plans going awry.

    And he did it in the face of his internal enemies and his media detractors who still ridicule and caricature him.

    In three short weeks, Rudd has justified the case for dumping Gillard, so much so that some dare to dream of a famous victory. The Labor Party was a basket case last month. Today it pulses with relief and a touch of excitement.

    Embittered supporters of Gillard no doubt still harbour a profound hurt. They may at last sense something of what drove Rudd to stay, endure and finally savour his vindication.

    Some Labor supporters may wince at the PNG solution. In times past they winced over state aid, uranium mines, foreign banks, lowered tariffs and a host of other issues. Once, before they loved them, they winced over Whitlam and Hawke. That’s what Labor supporters do from time to time.
    Each occasion involves a choice between, as Gillard would say, moving forward or staying trapped in a destructive past.

    This time it involves some unpleasant moral choices. It involves a bold political calculation.

    But, however you view it, the flow of asylum seeker boats is an unsustainable situation that has to be shaken up and reframed. No responsible party of government could pretend otherwise for any longer.

    And of course electoral imperatives matter. That irks the moral guardians. But everything about the return to Rudd has been the story of a party belatedly but finally refusing to lie down and die.

    You sense that Rudd sees it as more than that. Monday’s Caucus meeting, symbolically in the Balmain Town Hall, shouts a message about reconstruction and renovation.

    We’ll soon see where it ends. A friend of mine, a one-time Labor MP, is convinced Rudd can win. I’m not. I can’t find the seats.

    But a month ago, we were in total agreement. An Abbott victory was assured. Labor annihilation loomed. Now that’s all changed.

    Last night, however those alternative universes saw it, the contest took another decisive turn.

    – See more at: http://australianpolitics.com/2013/07/20/asylum-seekers-alternative-universes.html#sthash.Eqy2hkoF.dpuf ]

  18. Further to 2152, it is sobering to realise just how hard it is to patrol the Indonesia Australia sea border and “stop the boats” at sea. We would be lucky to find the boats.

    Consider the USA Mexico border that the USA fences and vigorously patrols. It is 1900km long and has been crossed by at least 11 million people who now live in the USA. By comparison, the Australia Indonesia sea border is nearly 3000 km long, and there are over 18000 islands in Indonesia, thousands inhabited. How can you possibly “stop the boats” or “turn back the boats” at sea, or even at departure. It is a ridiculous idea.

  19. Bemused honestly believes that the PNG solution was dreamed up in a few weeks K Rudd.

    The sheer scale of the delusion is hilarious. These sorts of agreements take months of planning (if done properly).

  22. Meanwhile on Java…

    [KEVIN Rudd’s Papua New Guinea solution has bit savagely in west Java, where Afghan asylum seekers have immediately begun telling people smugglers they are cancelling their planned boat trips to Christmas Island.
    After the Prime Minister’s announcement, it did not take long for the news to circulate in the mountain-top resort city of Cisarua, where an estimated 5000 asylum seekers were awaiting to make boat trips.
    By Saturday morning, groups of Afghan men, who are highly visible on the streets, were saying they would never accept settlement in Papua New Guinea and began instructing intermediaries working for the smugglers that they would not be going.
    Island of ash left in rioters’ wake
    The Afghans generally do not pay the smugglers in advance. Because the Afghan networks have become such an established business here since 1999, the smugglers trade on their good name and their guarantees to deliver people to Australia.
    Afghans – who travel cheaper by boat than people of other nationalities, usually paying around $3000 – told News Corp Australia that they would now register with the UNHCR and wait for legal resettlement because the idea of PNG seemed too shocking to them.]

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/rudd8217s-decision-will-stop-the-boats-afghan-asylum-seekers-declare/story-fncynjr2-1226682491915#ixzz2ZaC0cCVc

  24. The deterent is to stop them Boarding.

    you get on a boat
    your found aboard a boat
    you *ARE* going to PNG

    NO More Boats.
    Not One.
    Every Boat Will Go To PNG>

  25. [This sounds good, how many have Labor sent to PNG so far?]
    Oh ffs mate, you’re rather clueless aren’t you. What about Manus Island?

  26. [you get on a boat
    your found aboard a boat
    you *ARE* going to PNG]

    Like the Malaysian Solution, right? Zero went.

    It’s only a deterrent if you follow through with action, not words which people smugglers and their cargo know from Labor isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.

    Lets see how many Labor sends by next week

  28. [Sean Tisme
    Posted Saturday, July 20, 2013 at 9:06 pm | Permalink

    Get on a Boat, you go to PNG.

    This sounds good, how many have Labor sent to PNG so far?]

    Love it, love it, Liberal hacks left ranting in the wings.

    Love sweet karma in the morning, Liberals wedged in the sewer.

  29. Socrates@2168

    Further to 2152, it is sobering to realise just how hard it is to patrol the Indonesia Australia sea border and “stop the boats” at sea. We would be lucky to find the boats.

    Consider the USA Mexico border that the USA fences and vigorously patrols. It is 1900km long and has been crossed by at least 11 million people who now live in the USA. By comparison, the Australia Indonesia sea border is nearly 3000 km long, and there are over 18000 islands in Indonesia, thousands inhabited. How can you possibly “stop the boats” or “turn back the boats” at sea, or even at departure. It is a ridiculous idea.

    When the boats mostly converge on Christmas Island it becomes easier to locate them at that end of the journey.

    18,000 Islands? I used to think it was 14,000. Then I recently heard 17,000. Any higher bids?

    Suffice to say it is a lot, and journeys in small boats are nothing unusual that would, of necessity, attract the attention of law enforcement authorities. Stopping any significant number of departures relies on good intelligence.

  31. KEVIN Rudd’s Papua New Guinea solution has bit savagely in west Java, where Afghan asylum seekers have immediately begun telling people smugglers they are cancelling their planned boat trips to Christmas Island.

    After the Prime Minister’s announcement, it did not take long for the news to circulate in the mountain-top resort city of Cisarua, where an estimated 5000 asylum seekers were awaiting to make boat trips.

    By Saturday morning, groups of Afghan men, who are highly visible on the streets, were saying they would never accept settlement in Papua New Guinea and began instructing intermediaries working for the smugglers that they would not be going.

    These 3 paragraphs say what the majority of Aussies wanted to hear

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/rudd8217s-decision-will-stop-the-boats-afghan-asylum-seekers-declare/story-fncynjr2-1226682491915#ixzz2ZaDfF3KY

  32. [Sean Tisme
    Posted Saturday, July 20, 2013 at 9:11 pm | Permalink
    ….

    Lets see how many Labor sends by next week]

    Poor little Sean, Manus island (part of PNG for the geographically challenged) is up and running, people there allready.

  33. Talking about deterrence is missing the point.

    The point is no visa.

    This is a fundamentally more effective way of being selfish than other methods.

    Heck, we can even build really nice facilities for refugees now that they’re not required to scare people away and nobody will notice or complain because it’s all out of sight.

  35. What a ridiculous question Tisme. You really have lost it. If Tone had come up with this idea you’d be on here saying game over, as I would be and you’d be supportive of it. So cut the BS.

  36. [Oh ffs mate, you’re rather clueless aren’t you. What about Manus Island?]

    Like Malaysia where Gillard told us if you came by XXX Day you were going to Malaysia.

    We’ve heard it all before, you Labor supporters still don’t get it.. Labor have a credibility problem and no one, especially not people smugglers will take them seriously until they actually see action.

    Why do you assume the people smugglers will believe Labor on this one when Labor has folded every other time they have tested them? Labor are the greatest folders and capitulators when it comes to people smugglers the world has probably ever seen.

    Do we all remember Oceanic Viking and how tough Rudd’s resolve was with that one? Bet the smugglers do!

  37. [This sounds good, how many have Labor sent to PNG so far?]

    Even by your standards that’s an idiotic comment.
    Where is Generic Person these days? At least he was funny.

  39. Bobalot@2169

    Bemused honestly believes that the PNG solution was dreamed up in a few weeks K Rudd.

    The sheer scale of the delusion is hilarious. These sorts of agreements take months of planning (if done properly).

    Show me a shred of evidence that The Great Gillard had anything like this in planning. Yes, the sheer scale of the delusion is hilarious. But don’t let me spoil it for you.

    I have no doubt Rudd has been working out ideas for neutralising all the issues damaging Labor for some time. He could not have sprung into action as quickly if he hadn’t worked out things in advance.

  41. [KEVIN Rudd’s Papua New Guinea solution has bit savagely in west Java, where Afghan asylum seekers have immediately begun telling people smugglers they are cancelling their planned boat trips to Christmas Island.

    After the Prime Minister’s announcement, it did not take long for the news to circulate in the mountain-top resort city of Cisarua, where an estimated 5000 asylum seekers were awaiting to make boat trips.

    By Saturday morning, groups of Afghan men, who are highly visible on the streets, were saying they would never accept settlement in Papua New Guinea and began instructing intermediaries working for the smugglers that they would not be going.

    These 3 paragraphs say what the majority of Aussies wanted to hear]
    Expect Abbott and Scott Morrison to put out a press release attacking Rudd for destroying the people smuggling industry.

  42. Sean Tisme

    Posted Saturday, July 20, 2013 at 9:06 pm | Permalink

    Get on a Boat, you go to PNG.

    This sounds good, how many have Labor sent to PNG so far?
    —————————————————–

    you twit. the policy was announced less than 24 hours ago.

    FFS you really are from the shallow end of the gene pool

  43. A couple of items of interest —

    http://www.news.com.au/national-news/rudd8217s-decision-will-stop-the-boats-afghan-asylum-seekers-declare/story-fncynjr2-1226682491915

    – some asylum seekers cancelling their trips and deciding to go through UNHCR process.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/labor-saved-australia-nobel-laureate-stiglitz-20100806-11lkq.html#ixzz2ZaDBQGID

    – Nobel Laureate economist says that conservatives caused GFC, Labor did a fantastic job getting Australia through it.

  44. [Like Malaysia where Gillard told us if you came by XXX Day you were going to Malaysia.]
    Yet the Liberals and Nationals voted with your friends the Greens to stop this from happening.

    Clearly you’re clueless about this issue.

  46. Sean I remember Tampa and children overboard, the actions that started the politicisation of this issue. For that I will never every vote liberal again.

    Boy I love seeing the Liberals Wedge in the sewer.

  49. Sean T 2186 The people smugglers might not take Rudd seriously, but it sounds like their customers may …. see Sprockets link at 2172

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