Nielsen: 50-50

The first Nielsen poll since the leadership change follows the general trend in finding Labor drawing level with the Coalition after spending a long period in some place lower than the doldrums.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the first Nielsen poll since the leadership change has Labor bouncing from 57-43 behind to dead level, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (up 10), 44% for the Coalition (down three) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are 51% approve and 43% disapprove, while Tony Abbott is on 41% (down three) and 56% disapprove (up three). Rudd leads as preferred prime minister by 55-41. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables plus leadership attributes results, courtesy as usual of the ghost with the most.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The ever inflexible Essential Research still has the Coalition lead at 52-48, although Labor is up a point on last week to 39% with the Coalition steady on 46% and the Greens down one to 7%. Also featured are personal approval ratings, with Kevin Rudd on 50% approve and 35% disapprove against 39% and 51% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 50-35 as preferred prime minister. There is also very strong support for Kevin Rudd’s notion that party leaders should be chosen by members as well as caucus, with 56% approval and 19% disapproval. A question on the state of the economy finds a sharp deterioration since April, with good down nine points to 36% and poor up four to 30%, with the usual huge disparities according to voting intention. Thirty-eight per cent thought the economy headed in the right direction, up two since July, against 42% for the wrong direction, up three. There is also a question on respondents’ personal involvement in the past week, showing 56% had watched federal politicians on television, 50% discussed federal politics with friends and family, and 43% had seen television advertising by the parties.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Morgan has both Labor and the Coalition up on the primary vote, respectively by half a point to 42% and 1.5% to 41%, with another bad poll showing for the Greens who are down 1.5% to 7%. This causes last week’s attention-grabbing 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred to rein in to 52.5-47.5, but the size of Labor’s lead last week was inflated by a blowout in respondent-allocated preferences which has come down somewhat this week. On the stable measure of two-party preferred using preference flows from the previous election, the change is from 52.5-47.5 to 51.5-48.5. And bless their hearts, they are continuing to provide weekly state breakdowns, which find the position in Queensland returning to a believable situation of parity between the two parties after last week’s blowout of 57-43 to Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,530 comments on “Nielsen: 50-50”

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  1. Evening all. I was delighted to see that Labor is changing the car FBT rules to help pay for the ETS. Win – win! The car FBT rules are used to subsidise middle and upper class excess, increasing consumption of cars and fuel. Good riddance to a bad rort. Car makers will cry that some of the leased vehicles are Aussie made. Too bad! A large majority are foreign made, many quite expensive.
    [Carmakers have warned of dire consequences for the automotive industry after the Federal Government proposed changing fringe benefits tax rules to help pay for scrapping the carbon tax.]
    Compared to the first attempt at the mining tax, I hope this time Rudd does not back down. This is a good idea both environmentally (less fuel use) and economically (less capital waste). Only those on reasonable incomes find it attractive, so this has nothing to do with helping struggling families either. It is classic middle class welfare, if not upper class welfare.

  2. oh no, Coalition Party released a policy….

    Anthony Albanese ‏@AlboMP 4m

    Coalition have finally announced a Bruce Hwy Policy that has less money ($2.1b) in 1st 4yrs than Labor’s ($2.25b)

  3. cud chewer@2454

    So what was the politics of FBT and why couldn’t it have been done before?

    In a word… “Gillard”.

    No, I am not being fair. But Rudd and team are showing considerable imagination in changes they are making.

  4. confessions, looking at the inland rainfall @ PWL…just bugger all rain in the wheatbelt…this is about the strongest front we’ve had this year, but there’s almost nothing in it…certainly not enough for the cereal producers to get excited over.

  5. briefly:

    Are you sure this is the strongest front we’ve had this year? I recall around 5 weeks or so ago we had a very strong front go through. I think that one delivered a fair bit of rain as well.

  6. 2457

    No, the Gillard government made another sensible cut to FBT (stopping it from encouraging driving by giving vehicles driven for longer a bigger FBT discount) as well. Before that it had remained the same since the FBT was created under Hawke, as far as I am aware.

    Cutting FBT concessions for cars has been on environmental, public transport and anti-tax rort campaigners policy wish lists for many years.

  7. cud chewer@2459

    A slightly better answer would be nice

    Well the first bit was flippant and mischievous, but the second point was correct as far as it went.

    I see it as a further paring back of middle class welfare.

    And may there be more of it!

  8. Further to 2451, it is quite conceivable that the previous FBT arrangements also increased our foreign trade deficit. Most of the FBT treated cars are foreign made, so we have been subsidising people to spend a lot of money on expensive imported goods.

    I do not think this move will help local car sales, but it will not make that much difference either. They are in trouble either way. Te reason car makers are complaining is that this means they will sell fewer cars, or have to drop their steep markups on imported cars. All the Aussie car makers sell many imported models as well.

  9. [Cutting FBT concessions for cars has been on environmental, public transport and anti-tax rort campaigners policy wish lists for many years.]
    Very true. I work in transport planning and economics, and the FBT rules are hated by anyone who analysed them in the public interest.

  10. Rossmore@2461

    Bemused 2457 A long bow …. evidence?

    You have access to the same facts that I do.

    Essentially, Gillard and Swan were just appearing to be paralysed by the situation whereas Rudd & team seem to have been able to break clear of that situation and take the initiative.

    Your interpretation of the facts may be different.

  11. Every new leader has a short window of opportunity to surprise. Rudd to his credit has taken the opportunity. Bamboozling is the word that comes to mind as the LNP will scramble to respond to the FBT changes. Not a lot of votes lost to the ALP in the Maserati, Ferrari owning class …

  12. Bemused 2466 fortune favours the brave, I agree, but it is a fleeting moment and shouldn’t be overplayed. There’s a fine dividing line between hubris and stretegy

  13. The Community Cabinet: boring, BUT could you imagine Abbott trying to host one of these?
    Anyway, Rudd looked in complete command of the proceedings, and if it helps Labor retain Capricornia, it will have served its purpose.

  14. [Compared to the first attempt at the mining tax, I hope this time Rudd does not back down.]

    It was Gillard and Swan wot neutered it.

  15. [An indigenous attendee scalded Mr Rudd and his ministers for not acknowledging the traditional owners of the region before they each spoke.

    Mr Rudd was not impressed.

    “Can I just say in response to that mate, we had an official welcome to country and as the bloke who delivered the national apology to all indigenous Australians, I honour all first Australians wherever I go,” he said.]

    Ugh. Talk about arrogance. “Me, me, me!”

  16. Rossmore@2469

    Bemused 2466 fortune favours the brave, I agree, but it is a fleeting moment and shouldn’t be overplayed. There’s a fine dividing line between hubris and stretegy

    I must admit to being surprised just how quickly Rudd got going. He obviously was not wasting his time on the back bench.

    I think he probably has quite a bit more to come and Abbott must be having nightmares by now.

  17. [2477

    An indigenous attendee scalded Mr Rudd]

    Wearing my Fran Bailey outfit, perhaps the reporter meant to say Mr Rudd had been “scolded”. Had the critic “scalded” the PM, I’m sure he would have been arrested.

  18. [Karen Middleton ‏@KarenMMiddleton 11m
    Another boat has sunk off Christmas lsland. 150 believed on board. Warramunga & Albany rescued 144. Four bodies recovered. Search now off.]
    I’ve got a feeling we’re going to have an election campaign dominated by bloody boats.

  19. Confessions,

    apart from the ‘WE had an official welcome to country’

    Rudd did not return the grace.

    And it is me, me, me.

  20. TP2474

    Sorry you were right, Rudd was rolled before he could finish the original MRRT. Anyway, this FBT move is a good policy change, so stick to your guns, please Mr Rudd. The usual suspects will oppose it, but you won’t hear a lot from ACOSS or anyone who actually represents people genuinely in need.

  21. crikey whitey:

    The apology to stolen generations was delivered by the government. I think he needs to remember that.

  22. Albos on fire on Twitter tonight …

    Anthony Albanese ‏@AlboMP 24m
    Last LNP Govt with Truss as Minister funded $1.3b Bruce Hwy over 12 long years . Labor has committed $5.7b already since 2007

  23. [Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has thrown his support behind a new NRL team for central Queensland.

    Mr Rudd told a community cabinet in Rockhampton on Tuesday night the federal government would put $500,000 towards a CQ NRL bid consortium’s feasibility study into a new rugby league stadium for the town.]

    Now I’m sure all those who criticised Gillard for committing govt funding to a new football training facility in Perth will also be critical of this.

  24. IN a foreign affairs spat bettween Bob Carr and Scott Morrison I know who I’d back …

    Money quote:

    Senator Carr reacted angrily, telling Fairfax Media: ”That is an astonishing statement and it confirms again how ill-equipped the bovver boys of Tony Abbott’s opposition are to take over the task of diplomacy on behalf of Australia. Fancy saying that about the foreign minister of a friendly country whose friendship is so indispensable to Australia in so many ways.”
    Senator Carr stressed that given Indonesia’s size and the spread of its archipelagian territory, Australia could not solve the asylum-seeker problem without Jakarta’s help.

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