Nielsen: 50-50

The first Nielsen poll since the leadership change follows the general trend in finding Labor drawing level with the Coalition after spending a long period in some place lower than the doldrums.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the first Nielsen poll since the leadership change has Labor bouncing from 57-43 behind to dead level, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (up 10), 44% for the Coalition (down three) and 9% for the Greens (down two). Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are 51% approve and 43% disapprove, while Tony Abbott is on 41% (down three) and 56% disapprove (up three). Rudd leads as preferred prime minister by 55-41. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables plus leadership attributes results, courtesy as usual of the ghost with the most.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The ever inflexible Essential Research still has the Coalition lead at 52-48, although Labor is up a point on last week to 39% with the Coalition steady on 46% and the Greens down one to 7%. Also featured are personal approval ratings, with Kevin Rudd on 50% approve and 35% disapprove against 39% and 51% for Tony Abbott, with Rudd leading 50-35 as preferred prime minister. There is also very strong support for Kevin Rudd’s notion that party leaders should be chosen by members as well as caucus, with 56% approval and 19% disapproval. A question on the state of the economy finds a sharp deterioration since April, with good down nine points to 36% and poor up four to 30%, with the usual huge disparities according to voting intention. Thirty-eight per cent thought the economy headed in the right direction, up two since July, against 42% for the wrong direction, up three. There is also a question on respondents’ personal involvement in the past week, showing 56% had watched federal politicians on television, 50% discussed federal politics with friends and family, and 43% had seen television advertising by the parties.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Morgan has both Labor and the Coalition up on the primary vote, respectively by half a point to 42% and 1.5% to 41%, with another bad poll showing for the Greens who are down 1.5% to 7%. This causes last week’s attention-grabbing 54.5-45.5 lead on two-party preferred to rein in to 52.5-47.5, but the size of Labor’s lead last week was inflated by a blowout in respondent-allocated preferences which has come down somewhat this week. On the stable measure of two-party preferred using preference flows from the previous election, the change is from 52.5-47.5 to 51.5-48.5. And bless their hearts, they are continuing to provide weekly state breakdowns, which find the position in Queensland returning to a believable situation of parity between the two parties after last week’s blowout of 57-43 to Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,530 comments on “Nielsen: 50-50”

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  2. scorpio@2286

    bemused,

    Hi scorps, welcome back.


    Hello Bemused. I’ve been a fairly constant supporter of this blog for over 6 years and I loved many of its contributors dearly for their wisdom & friendship.

    I have even been tolerant enough to put up with unwarranted criticism but I don’t know that I could ever contribute here with the enthusiasm that I used to after the treatment I was subjected to some time ago by the host & one of his favoured irregular contributors.

    I recall that.

    But this place is generally more tolerant than Bullshit Bill’s Blog.

  3. “ilLiberals” are funny… CO2 is a weightless harmless un-marketable non-entity which addressing is a socialist leftist evil plot but WE can cut more of it than Labour .. hahhaha

    Did GoddoG create rightist ignorant or are all ignorant people naturally rightist??

  4. SCORPIO.

    Re Posting.
    2269
    crikey whitey
    Posted Tuesday, July 16, 2013 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

    Well, Scorpio.

    Gotta a few hours.

    Otherwise, fine.

    So pleased about your Eli, hope all is well.

    Posted here but I think you missed it.

  5. Crikey
    The old grey cells just ain’t what they used to be!
    For some curious reason moi thought it was Bob Ellis. 🙂

  7. crikey whitey,

    [ Well, Scorpio.
    Gotta a few hours.
    Otherwise, fine.
    So pleased about your Eli, hope all is well.
    Posted here but I think you missed it. ]

    Sorry I missed your comments. Felt pretty wounded by an unwarranted and unfair/totally wrong attack on my character and previous employment on this site.

    Young Eli, although a couple of months behind in development because he was premature, is going along well & apparently has decided to skip the crawling phase and has decided to go straight to walking. Or well, at this stage, to standing on his own! 😉

    I never knew that being a Grandparent could be so enjoyable. It’s wonderful. I hope to be around in reasonable shape to have a dozen of them at least! 😉

  9. Dee, Adams and Ellis are not mutually exclusive. More than one can quit at a time. There’s hope for your grey cells yet.

  10. Zoidlord. More ever tiring.

    ‘Abbott policy is just green army, which is basically what Howard did’.

    Love, NOT, the recycling of unemployed youth to serve the needs of the party.

  11. [Steve Price ‏@StevePriceMedia 23m
    @2GB873 NOW: Deputy PM @AlboMP on Carbon Tax, Boats, Fringe Benefit Tax and other burning #auspol issues.
    Retweeted by Anthony Albanese]

    Albo is venturing into the den on iniquity. Hope he has his loins girded.

  13. Dee. You’ll be right.

    (hope that apostrophe is anatomically correct)

    Think Bob Ellis was up there with Philip et al.

  14. [ But this place is generally more tolerant than Bullshit Bill’s Blog. ]

    God, you just can’t ever leave it alone, can you bemused?

  15. sprocket_

    [by Anthony Albanese

    Albo is venturing into the den on iniquity. Hope he has his loins girded.]
    As Albo said and the T-shirst says

  16. There is something counterintuitive about a media consultant issuing a media release bemoaning media coverage about a case he is consulting on.

    Disingenuous even.

  17. Scorpio.

    You are missed. Hope you have time enough to get back into it for the upcoming.

    I imagine that Eli has given you new reason for life.

    And may you live to love a million.

    Well remember in 2007/8 that you were in something of despair over your then undiagnosed medical condition. You said then that you may die without knowing what was wrong with you.

    Someone has been proven wrong. Blessedly not you.

    xxx

  18. Anthony Albanese ‏@AlboMP 2m

    Just argued the case for the ETS to address climate change to @stevepricemedia and Andrew Bolt – always a lively discussion

  19. Phillip Adams ditched his ALP membership, of 40 years standing, after Rudd was replaced.

    Don’t know whether he’s rejoined again.

  22. Scorpio, good to hear young Eli is thriving and I share your thoughts on being a grandparent.

    Time sure does fly, my youngest grand-daughter is now three and a real live wire. Never stops.

  23. feeney@2319

    Phillip Adams ditched his ALP membership, of 40 years standing, after Rudd was replaced.

    Don’t know whether he’s rejoined again.

    A shame he did that and I hope he has rejoined.

    Turns out he was right of course.

  25. And right on cue, Ellen Fanning has a special guest on her Observer Effect on SBS on Sunday night at 8.30

    Malcolm Turnbull

  26. i hope Former Prime Minister Julia Gillard has some good news on her post wipethedustofthevillagefromyourfeet career.

  28. “Federal deficits, the creation of green jobs, austerity vs stimulus packages; how do you balance it all out? There are some important lessons to be learned from Europe’s recent experience”.

    Susan George writes “Austerity as economic suicide”.

    Read more on: “Beware the peddlers of austerity economics”.
    In the latest issue of the New Internationalist magazine, celebrated author Susan George “gives a spirited lashing to European leadership, accusing it of being entirely subservient to the desires of finance and the largest corporations”.
    “European leadership is brain-dead, ignorant of economics and needlessly committing economic suicide” she writes.

    “In response to government policies, a rising public sense of their unfairness is reinforcing the campaigns for alternative strategies against debt and austerity”.

    Read more in the New Internationalist at their web site.

    Perhaps Abbott, Hockey and Robb can read it before they decide on the economic policy they present for the election?

  29. bemused
    [Turns out he was right of course.]

    A massive over-reaction. I still don’t get why he did it.

    God, Gary Hardgrave on PML. Who likes these guys and why?

  31. As my son said, Julia cleaned up the kitchen and cooked tbe dinner.now rudd gets to carve the turkey.

    Let us hope he can do that without screwing it up.
    ,

  34. Ausdavo

    [Perhaps Abbott, Hockey and Robb can read it before they decide on the economic policy they present for the election?]
    I don’t think they were planning on presenting any policies before or during the election.
    They were hoping they would coast into power on the unpopularity of the government.

  37. triton@2329

    bemused

    Turns out he was right of course.


    A massive over-reaction. I still don’t get why he did it.

    God, Gary Hardgrave on PML. Who likes these guys and why?

    Yes, I agree he over-reacted.
    Dummy spits never help.

  39. So with Parties being on TV/Radio etc, even though Election date hasn’t actually been announced, doesn’t this mean it is soon ?

  40. [And right on cue, Ellen Fanning has a special guest on her Observer Effect on SBS on Sunday night at 8.30

    Malcolm Turnbull]
    No way!

    Is Turnbull seriously trying this on at this late stage?

  41. ausdavo@2338

    Bemused

    We’ve had a fair few “dummy spits” the last three weeks here on PB.

    Yes and it has been rather curious to see just how different people reacted.

    Some surprised me with their acceptance of the new situation and others I had thought were more sensible did not cope at all well.

  45. ausdavo@2342

    Bemused

    Yes, I have been noticing that too. But surely those genuinely on the progressive side are over it now?

    You would think so, but I suspect we are now seeing the true colours of some.

    I have always campaigned for and supported the ALP no matter who the leader was (even Latham 😮 ) But it seems some precious petals must always get their own way or it is dummy spit time.

  47. The feds paid millions for the refit of an entire ward and new admin offices at our hospital.
    Newman’s board was installed and they have closed down the new ward and are now talking about spending millions to convert it to admin offices.

    All the while no cleaners on w/ends for operating rooms.
    21 wardies gone. Nurses axed by stealth.
    W/end services have been shaved to the bone.
    And the list goes on….

    It is sickening to read the local rags with Horan and Co backslapping each other for doing such a great job.

    Absolute madness!

  49. I think it is a crap situation when Gauss and Abbott think they know more science than 97% of the world’s climate scientists.

    The other three per cent seem to be mainly birthers, creationists, inventers of aids cures, and geologists on the boards of mining companies.

    Still, Gauss is well ahead of Abbott, I assume, because Gauss will actually acknowledge that CO2 does weigh something and the invisible nature of CO2 is not nearly as significant as Abbott thinks it is.

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