Seat of the week: Canberra

Labor lost its grip on the electorate covering the south of the national capital amid the wreckage of the Whitlam and Keating governments, but there have been few suggestions it will go that way again this time.

The electorate of Canberra covers the southern half of the national capital together with the bulk of the Australian Capital Territory’s thinly populated remainder, with northern Canberra accommodated by the seat of Fraser. Both seats were created when the territory was first divided into two electorates in 1974. The Australian Capital Territory had been a single electorate since the expansion of parliament in 1949, but its member only obtained full voting rights in 1968. A third electorate of Namadgi was created for the 1996 election, accommodating Tuggeranong and its surrounds in Canberra’s far south and pushing the Canberra electorate north of the lake to include the city’s centre and inner north. However, the previous order was reinstated when the seat entitlement to slipped back to two at the 1998 election, in large part due to Howard government cutbacks to the federal public service. The two ACT electorates presently have enrolment of around 130,000 voters each, compared with a national average of around 96,000.

The Australian Capital Territory electorate was won by an independent at its first election in 1949, but was held by Labor after 1951. Kep Enderby came to the seat at a 1970 by-election and carried over to Canberra in 1974, serving as Lionel Murphy’s successor as Attorney-General in 1975. He was then dumped by a 10.4% swing to the Liberals at the December 1975 election, and for the next two terms the seat was held for the Liberals by John Haslem. The seat’s natural Labor inclination finally reasserted itself in 1980 with the election of Ros Kelly, who served in the Hawke-Keating ministries from 1987 until she fell victim to the still notorious “sports rorts” affair in 1994. Kelly’s indulgent departure from parliament a year later was followed by a disastrous by-election result for Labor, with Liberal candidate Brendan Smyth gaining the seat off a 16.2% swing.

Smyth unsuccessfully contested the new seat of Namadgi at the 1996 election, and Canberra was won easily for Labor by Bob McMullan, who had served the ACT as a Senator since 1988. The reassertion of the old boundaries in 1998 caused McMullan to move to Fraser, the Labor margin in the redrawn Canberra being 5.1% lower than the one he secured in 1996. Canberra went to Annette Ellis, who had entered parliament as the member for Namadgi in 1996, while Fraser MP Steve Darvagel agreed to go quietly after a brief parliamentary career which began when he succeeded John Langmore at a by-election in February 1997. Ellis added 7.2% to an existing 2.3% margin at the 1998 election, and held the seat safely thereafter.

In February 2010, both Ellis and McMullan announced they would not contest the election due later that year. Large fields of preselection contestants emerged for both seats, with the front-runner in Canberra initially thought to be Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr and a former adviser to opposition leaders Mark Latham and Kim Beazley. However, Cooney shortly withdrew amid suggestions Kevin Rudd was ready to use national executive intervention to block him. The eventual winner was Gai Brodtmann, a former DFAT public servant who had established a local communications consultancy with her husband, senior ABC reporter Chris Uhlmann. Together with Andrew Leigh’s win in Fraser, Brodtmann’s win was seen as a rebuff to local factional powerbrokers who had pursued a deal in which the Left would support Mary Wood, adviser to Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek and member of the Centre Coalition (Right), and the Right would back the Nick Martin, the party’s assistant national secretary and a member of the Left, in Fraser. However, Brodtmann was able to build a cross-factional support base of sufficient breadth to prevail over Wood by 123 votes to 109.

The Liberal candidate for the coming election is Tom Sefton, a Commonwealth public servant who has served in Afghanistan as a commando officer. Sefton polled a respectable 4.2% as a candidate for Molonglo at the October 2012 Australian Capital Territory election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,897 comments on “Seat of the week: Canberra”

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  10. [An election date has already been announced.]
    BIG DEAL! There is nothing stopping the election being called for a new date!
    [What narrative (for want of a better word) can possibly be used to justify a leadership change other than poor polling?]
    Err, what about not many people like Julia Gillard? That’s a pretty good reason!
    [In which case, this makes my point for me: desperation and clinging to the last vestiges of a possible election win.]
    Are you really so delusional that you think Gillard has ANY chance of winning?

    Get out more mate!

  14. confessions….I think this week will be critical in Australian political history. While I have no inside knowledge about what may unfold, I believe that caucus must assert itself. Labor has generally been on the right side of history throughout its long life and has been able to reinvent itself. Let’s hope they can keep it that way.

  15. You need to get out more shows

    Just because carlton and Hadley don’t like Gillard doesn’t mean she is unpopular

    Have you watched the ABC show yet?

  16. I’m sure that many here who want Rudd to take the leadership back don’t dislike Gillard, they want to be competitive at the election.

  19. [Just because carlton and Hadley don’t like Gillard doesn’t mean she is unpopular]

    She’s unpopular because a large majority think she’s unpopular.

  21. [Just because carlton and Hadley don’t like Gillard doesn’t mean she is unpopular

    Have you watched the ABC show yet?]
    Grow up mate. Carlton complained to the ABC about how he was depicted in that show.

  22. [1796
    confessions

    briefly:

    An election date has already been announced. What narrative (for want of a better word) can possibly be used to justify a leadership change other than poor polling? In which case, this makes my point for me: desperation and clinging to the last vestiges of a possible election win.

    It won’t work.]

    Then we must reconcile ourselves to defeat.

  24. briefly:

    We’ll see what the week brings. Ultimately, the govt needs unity, otherwise it doesn’t have a chance in hell of being competitive.

    I rather suspect R*dd knows this, and so will continue the destabilisation right up until the election if need be.

  25. CC

    before Sophie, the Libs up here were so flush with volunteers they used to open offices during the campaign in even quite small towns.

    Now they don’t do any.

    She’s reduced the 2PP majority here to record lows, so I don’t think she has anything to teach anyone.

    (And since she dipped her toe into the waters of local politics, the Minister for Local Government has had to call for an investigation into her local council…)

  26. [Then we must reconcile ourselves to defeat.]

    I’m already suffering from TAPMPS (Tony Abbott Prime Minister Preparedness Syndrome)

  27. Kirky

    Shows On did outline some very valid points of why Gillard is unliked in the electorate the last time you asked him the same question 😆

    In my opinion the two main reasons are:

    1. The carbon tax lie.

    2. She is seen as the one who knifed Rudd.

  30. [Everyone lathering up in excitement?]

    There’s some notable unhingement, but otherwise the rest of us are having a courteous discussion.

  33. @Cofessions/1824

    If Rudd becomes PM next week, then that should solve alot of disunity.

    Not saying I support Rudd coming in, but I have open mind.

    Policies at risk you know.

  35. davidwh

    Yes a government getting things done. Media reporting in such a way it seems the voters know nothing about it.

  37. [Three years ago this hour:]

    Yep.

    And now they must go back (restore the mistake made 3 years ago) 😎

    Back to the future 😛

  38. [1823
    guytaur

    briefly

    Not if the party unites behind PMJG to extent MSM cannot write anymore fiction about leadership
    1824
    confessions
    Posted Sunday, June 23, 2013 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    briefly:

    We’ll see what the week brings. Ultimately, the govt needs unity, otherwise it doesn’t have a chance in hell of being competitive.

    I rather suspect R*dd knows this, and so will continue the destabilisation right up until the election if need be.]

    These two positions are correct and yet and demonstrate the inherent dysfunction of the current situation.

    Caucus should act to restore order, focus, unity and to leadership to the Government. This is its duty.

  39. [If Rudd becomes PM next week, then that should solve alot of disunity.]

    No, it will make it worse. All those Cabinet and front bench resignations will simply fuel more leadershit focus from the media.

  40. [briefly

    Not if the party unites behind PMJG to extent MSM cannot write anymore fiction about leadership]
    You’ve got serious issues mate. Most people don’t like Julia Gillard and won’t vote Labor if it is lead by her.

    You spend WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY too much time in your own insulated bubble of circle jerkery. You’ve got to get out more and talk to people in the real world.

  45. I see Bob Ellis thinks Martin O’Shannessy should be jailed.

    He’s married to my cousin.

    She’d have Ellis’s balls for ear rings before the fat c$&t could get off the couch.

  47. I will explain tomorrow to you the relevance of the ABC show and the Carlton article

    Glory nailed it I don’t know why you don’t see it

  48. shows

    I know what revolving leaders does. NSW revolving leaders proved it.
    Making Rudd PM again will be seen not as righting a wrong, but an admission of defeat.

    FYI PMJG is the most popular leader of the major parties. Howard was not liked but he still won elections.

  49. mind you gambling is not my sport — but its intuitive like politics.

    still amazed one man can have such effect for three long years (irony). deserves to be noticed (not ironic)

  50. Centre,

    She knifed Rudd as you say and yet he was prepared to stand for the Leadership in 2010, that says everything. He had lost support of his own party and now for the past three years he has been in the background undermining the current leader for what he perceives in his own mind was a wrong.

    Seriously, do people actually believe this man to be a saviour. For gods sake support the PM who has the backing of her party, has delivered policy in the most difficult climate of minority government, has seen no scandals of any note and yet we still have an economy growing and the envy of the world.

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