BludgerTrack: 55.8-44.2 to Coalition

The only national polls this week have been the regular weekly Essential Research and Morgan, which respectively moved a bit to Labor and a bit to the Coalition. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is accordingly little changed.

Little change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week (see the sidebar for details), though what’s there is enough to send the Greens to a new low and “others” to a new high for the current term. The only new additions are the latest numbers from the two weekly pollsters:

• Essential Research has moved in Labor’s favour, their primary vote up one to 36% with the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 8%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46. The monthly personal ratings record very little change, with Julia Gillard down one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 54%, while Tony Abbott is steady on 40% and down one to 49%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 41-39 to 40-39. Pleasingly, further questions concern campaign finance and find 29% support for public funding of political parties against 47% who think they should be funded only by donations; 65% support for donation caps against only 17% for unlimited donations; and only 5% opposed to public disclosure of donations (Institute of Public Affairs, take note). Thirty-six per cent supported the $1000 disclosure threshold originally proposed by the government, 26% favoured the $5000 agreed to under the doomed compromise with the Liberals, and only 17% supported the present $12,000 threshold. Other questions concerned tolerance (69% rating racism a large or moderate problem in Australian society) and Pauline Hanson (58% think it unlikely she would make a positive contribution to parliament against 30% for likely).

• The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor down half a point to 31%, the Coalition up half to 46% and the Greens steady on 9.5%. Both previous election and respondent-allocated preference measures of two-party preferred are at 56-44, compared with 55.5-44.5 and 55-45 last week.

Further polling:

• The Sunday Fairfax papers carried results from a ReachTEL automated phone of 3500 respondents in six Labor seats, which found Jason Clare on 48% of two-party preferred in Blaxland, Peter Garrett on 49% in Kingsford Smith, Bill Shorten and Wayne Swan on 53% in Maribyrnong and Lilley, and Jenny Macklin on 57% in Jagajaga. Also covered was Craig Emerson’s seat of Rankin, but here we were told only that he was trailing. The poll also inquired as to how people would vote if Kevin Rudd was returned to the leadership, which had Labor improving 4.5% in Kingsford Smith, 8.4% in Blaxland, 3.6% in Lilley, 11.8% in Rankin, 3.1% in Jagajaga and 8.6% in Maribyrnong.

• Roy Morgan also published a phone poll of 546 respondents on Friday which found 21%, 16% and 16% of respondents would respectively “consider” voting for Julian Assange’s Wikileaks Party, Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party. The Australian Financial Review also reported that Labor pollsters UMR Research had found 26% of respondents “would be willing” to support Assange’s party. Personally, I don’t find questions on voting intention of much value unless respondents are required to choose from a limited range of options.

Preselection news:

• Martin Ferguson’s announcement that he will bow out at the coming election has unleashed a preselection struggle for possibly the safest Labor seat in the country, the inner Melbourne seat of Batman. The vacancy was immediately perceived by Julia Gillard and Bill Shorten as a chance to accommodate Senator David Feeney, a Right powerbroker and key Gillard ally who has been stranded with what looks to be the unwinnable third position on the Victorian Senate ticket. However, Feeney is meeting fierce opposition from the local Left and those who believe the seat should go to a woman after Tim Watts was chosen to succeed Nicola Roxon in Gellibrand. Penny Wong and Jenny Macklin are in the latter camp, while Julia Gillard’s intervention has been criticised by Brian Howe, the Keating-era Deputy Prime Minister who held the seat from 1977 to 1996. The early talk was that Feeney might be opposed by ACTU president Ged Kearney, but she soon scotched the idea saying she wished to remain in her current position. Support is instead coalescing behind local Left faction member Mary-Anne Thomas, executive manager of Plan International. Two early starters have withdrawn to give her a clear run: Tim Laurence, the mayor of Darebin, and Hutch Hussein, refugee advocate and former national convenor of Emily’s List. Brian Howe has come out in support for Thomas, while Martin Ferguson is backing Feeney despite his long association with the Left. Stephen Mayne and Andrew Crook of Crikey have an extremely detailed review of the situation in the local branches.

• Ed Gannon of the Weekly Times reports the Victorian Liberal Party has defied Tony Abbott and angered the Nationals by resolving to field a candidate in Mallee, which will be vacated by the retirement of Nationals member John Forrest. The Nationals candidate, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad, said any opponent fielded against him would be “another Liberal Party muppet run out of Melbourne”, which Liberal state director Damien Mantach said was a “shrill outburst … unbecoming of someone who is aspiring to be a local leader and elected to high office”.

• Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party have unveiled high-profile Senate candidates in country singer James Blundell and former Western Bulldogs AFL player Doug Hawkins, who will respectively run for the KAP in Queensland and the PUP in Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,070 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.8-44.2 to Coalition”

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  1. Ah yes but Labor’s rise in essential is only because “the people” know that the ubermensh is coming back.

  2. [Should also add that those who actually let their position on abortion determine their vote ]

    Only rednecks and religious nutters would allow abortion to be the absolute determining factor when casting their vote.

  3. Am I missing something or are the rechtel polls showing that the Western suburbs are still in Play?
    A policy to bring some order to the question of irregular arrivals could well win this election.

  4. Carey Moore

    The ACL will be delighted Gillard has put abortion on the agenda – just before losing to Abbott. He has said he will not intervene as PM to veto RU486 being put on the PBS, but getting what he can describe as a ‘mandate’ he might change his position.

  5. Carey:

    I think you’re getting a bit carried away.

    Her remarks were a statement of the obvious, pitched to a particular audience. Secondly there is no way the LOTO could credibly use an election result to tighten controls on women’s fertility.

  6. Don’t get me wrong, I am happy we have a pro-choice PM but it would’ve been nice if that rhetoric was around back when the country was still giving her a chance, not when the main narrative is her fighting for her political life.

  7. I suspect most voters who see abortion as the key issue are already vodting CDP or DLP and preferencing the coalition.

    BTW does any one else find the Rev Fred Nile’s private life a little creepy?

  8. The WFG Facebook page informs that a transcript of her speech will be posted when it comes through.

    I didn’t get to see her speech as I was at work, so am looking forward to reading it when it’s available. 🙂

  9. Carey – no offense but you have an amazing talent for painting the darkest possible picture of everything the PM says. According to an account of a person that was at the launch the whole abortion thing is just being blown out of proportion. I have been listening to Abbott & Pyne & Morrison for some time & although they will not change the current state laws on abortion they will not act to forward them either. I respect the right for women to make their own decisions without interference. If you want to blame anyone blame the media.

  12. [Don’t get me wrong, I am happy we have a pro-choice PM but it would’ve been nice if that rhetoric was around back when the country was still giving her a chance, not when the main narrative is her fighting for her political life.]

    it is desperate and political opportunism. her political smarts are totally non existant. her comments today could actually be the straw that breaks her leadership once and for all.

  13. [… it would’ve been nice if that rhetoric was around back when …]

    Damned if you do and damned if you don’t – that’s what JG is subjected to each day. Stop complaining and get behind her FFS – she is a pro-choice PM which is a good thing.

  14. [Just desperate, stupid and myopic. I don’t care what the echo chamber here thinks. In the real world, she’s becoming increasingly isolated.]

    Agree, she’s lost it.

  16. What is all this delusion about “pitched to a particular audience” and an “event closed to the media”?

    Are you people completely naive? This little stunt was planned carefuly, down to the so-called “amateur” video that happened to be released to the media. Barring the media ensures you can tailor the message. The lines about abortion were scripted in a way of ensuring they would make the 30 second grabs.

  17. I find it funny this board is saying “Oh those who are against abortion are just religious nutters who never vote for us”, yet when we talk about same sex marriage, we keep hearing about how important socially conservative Catholics are to the Labor vote (they’re against abortion as well)

  18. Personally I think the PM’s message today was either a poorly thought out strategy, a sign of real desperation or the ramblings of someone who has lost the plot. I hope it’s not the latter because I still have some residual respect for the PM.

  19. [ … her comments today could actually be the straw that breaks her leadership once and for all … ]

    “But then again … maybe … but what if … how about … ”

    Damned if you do and damned if you don’t – that’s what JG is subjected to each day.

  20. I see, it’s the media’s fault Gillard has put abortion on the agenda for the election. It was all for public consumption:

    [“Addressing the launch of Labor’s Women for Gillard campaign…
    Speaking to a wall of young female ALP supporters, Ms Gillard highlighted abortion as a key election issue.

    ”We don’t want to live in an Australia where abortion again becomes the political plaything of men who think they know better,” she said.

    ”That’s not the future we should choose for our nation.”

    In a veiled reference to the Coalition’s male leadership team, Ms Gillard told the gathering: “I invite you to imagine it. A prime minister – a man in a blue tie – who goes on holidays to be replaced by a man in a blue tie. A treasurer, who delivers a budget wearing a blue tie, to be supported by a finance minister – another man in a blue tie.”]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/women-banished-under-abbott-pm-20130611-2o1hc.html#ixzz2VtqXTuAN

  22. the spectator – her political smarts are totally non existant (sic)

    Right, a female PM launches a campaign for female Labor supporters talking about women’s issues.

  23. [“But then again … maybe … but what if … how about … ”

    Damned if you do and damned if you don’t – that’s what JG is subjected to each day.]

    we’ll toughen up princess, politics is a tough old game and JG knows that all too well. she did after all knife a first term PM.

  25. Thanks jv for reposting, because it is worth reposting again:

    [We don’t want to live in an Australia where abortion again becomes the political plaything of men who think they know better]

    and

    [I invite you to imagine it. A prime minister – a man in a blue tie – who goes on holidays to be replaced by a man in a blue tie. A treasurer, who delivers a budget wearing a blue tie, to be supported by a finance minister – another man in a blue tie.]

    I find it funny that the very people deriding the PM for her statements today are the same people who say Labor isn’t progressive enough.

  26. Women of the Coalition can be assured they’ll never be chosen to fill an “artificial quota” and not because they are the best candidate for the job IRRELEVANT of their race, sexuality or gender.

    Labor can’t make the same promise. Labor will select people who they aren’t the best candidate, they will reward the lazy, and punish the high performers. To Labor reaching a “quota” is the most important issue for them. Women will need to know that to get ahead in the Labor party isn’t about being the best person for the job it’s about not having a penis or being part of some minority.

    And that I think most women would find abhorrent.

  27. We have this as a heading

    “Abortion will become the plaything of men: PM”

    This in the article

    Abortion will become the “political plaything” of male politicians if the Coalition wins the September federal election, Prime Minister Julia Gillard says.

    and then the actual quote

    We don’t want to live in an Australia where abortion again becomes the political plaything of men who think they know better

    The last doesn’t mean quite the same as the first two. Isn’t that odd.

  28. When I read it, I can unfortunately hear Gillard enunciating that sentence today, “That’s not the fu-ture we should choose for our na-tion.”

    How many times? And who writes that awful muck?

  29. JG is attacked from the right and the left simultaneously as per usual. I find it incredible that the lefties here can complain about her position on this subject and the occasion she chose to raise the issue. I guess if it was SHY or Mother Christine it would be considered a landmark speech.

  30. DN

    [“We don’t want to live in an Australia where abortion again becomes the political plaything of men who think they know better,” Ms Gillard said.

    “That’s not the future we should choose for our nation.”]

    She’s clearly saying that voting for Abbott would mean choosing for abortion to be a plaything of male politicians.

  31. [we’ll toughen up princess, politics is a tough old game and JG knows that all too well. she did after all knife a first term PM.]

    So now we get to the core of your complaint … she’s not KR.

    Pathetic.

  32. [The last doesn’t mean quite the same as the first two. Isn’t that odd.]

    I knew she would be launching the initiative, and knew I’d be interested in what she said, and so knew that I’d have to weed through the OM distortions to get actual quotes.

    I ignored headlines and bylines and just looked for actual quotes, hence my surprise at how her speech had been perceived, esp by Liberals. Do they want to live in the Australia the PM described?

    Their over-reaction, along with others has been just stupid.

  34. I think this whole abortion thing might have come from the ALP borrowing tactics from the democrats in the USA again. Australian politics losers (of both sides) can get very impressed with American campaign tactics and strategies and can be eager to put them into action here.

    The sad thing is we are very different societies and political systems/cultures. What works there doesn’t necessarily work here. Gillard should know better than to try the abortion thing, but she seems to have lost the plot.

  35. Dio, hardly. Her actual words refer to the *possiblity* that Australia could *move towards* a particular state. The reinterpretations by the smh are *definite* statements that that we’ll *be in* a specific state under the next Coalition government.

  36. Hi Confessions,

    Can you please name the last Australian Prime Ministers to openly oppose abortion.

    Looking forward to your answer.

  38. Tom Hawkins

    [if it was SHY or Mother Christine it would be considered a landmark speech.]

    Possible as they don’t often say much that’s comprehensible.

  39. Turkey – Australian politics losers (of both sides) can get very impressed with American campaign tactics and strategies and can be eager to put them into action here.

    Would you be referring to Cory Bernardi?

  40. Poroti @7:23pm – I don’t think that those lists of US & Australian cties are comparing apples with apples. For example, New York’s population of about 8 million is for the five old boroughs. The whole NY metro area spreads over 3 states with a population approaching 20 million. Likewise the greater LA metro area has nearly 15 million. It’s hard to make comparisons because especially in the US it’s hard to know where one city ends and the next begins. Even in Australia it can be difficult, e.g is Maitland NSW still a separatex’city’ from Newcastle, about 35km distant?

  43. And voting for Abbott will mean women are banished from the core of our political life. Presumably Julie Bishop won’t be allowed to speak.

    [“It’s a decision about whether once again we will banish women’s voices from the core of our nation’s political life. I invite you to imagine it: a prime minister – a man with a blue tie who goes on holidays to be replaced by a man in a blue tie.”
    ]

  44. Sean – Can you please name the last Australian Prime Ministers to openly oppose abortion.

    No, but if Abbott by some mirracle get’s to be PM it will be him,

  45. [Can you please name the last Australian Prime Ministers to openly oppose abortion.]

    It doesn’t matter what previous PM’s believed. The only thing that matters is the present and future ones.

    Abbott is a socially conservative Catholic, of course he’s anti-abortion. And given that he believes in socially shaping society, he’d probably want it completely banned. He might be pragmatic enough to leave the issue alone. OTOH, he might decide that Gillard’s comments today would help with whipping up the religious and socially conservative vote up for – if just to give the impression that the issue helped him and deserves a look after he gets in.

  49. Scratch that @141. I actually had the same thought Carey did (independently :P) until I read the actual quote.

    That doesn’t neccessarily mean I think it’s wise to make it a political issue, just that my reaction to the actual quote is not as harsh as my reaction to the smhs interpretation.

  50. I think most Catholics can live with the abortion laws current in most jurisdictions except Victoria. The role that the Victorian laws played in Balliaeu’s downfall is yet to be explored.

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