The latest weekly BludgerTrack update has been added to the sidebar, adding results from Newspoll, Galaxy and Essential Research. I have replaced my ad hoc rolling average calculation with LOESS, the polling wonk’s smoothing method of choice. As well as making my graphs look prettier, this makes for smoother trendlines and should reduce volatility from one week to the next. I’ll be applying some further methodological tinkering next week, including updating the Newspoll bias measures to account for the Western Australian election result – on which more below.
First though, it should be noted that the Financial Review has published results from a JWS Research automated phone poll of 4070 respondents in 54 marginal seats, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday. This records an aggregate swing of Labor of 9.3%, compared with a quite bad enough result of 4.8% when the exercise was last conducted in mid-January. In the aftermath of last week’s leadership chaos, it may well be significant that the shift was heavily concentrated in Queensland.
Preselection news:
• A general meeting of the ACT Liberals has voted down a motion to overturn Senator Gary Humphries’ preselection defeat at the hands of former ACT Opposition Leader Zed Seselja by a margin of 168 to 138. There had been compaints from Humphries supporters that many party members had been wrongly excluded from the February preselection vote, which Seselja won 114 to 84.
• The plot has thickened in the preselection to choose a successor to Nicola Roxon in Gellibrand, with three credibly rated candidates in the field. Unidentified sources quoted by John Ferguson in The Australian suggest opposition to Tim Watts, Telstra executive and former staffer to Stephen Conroy, amounts to a test of Conroy’s influence, which is said to be “starting to wane”. Josh Gordon of The Age reports a 2008 factional realignment reserved the seat for the Shorten-Conroy Right sub-faction, but Roxon has entered the fray by sending a letter to local party members urging for them to support her former adviser Katie Hall. There is another prospective candidate in Kimberley Kitching, a former Melbourne councillor, current acting general manager tasked with restoring order to Health Services Union No. 1 branch, and wife of VexNews provocateur Andrew Landeryou. Gordon reports the Turkish community is emerging as a source of support for Kitching, as Conroy has roused its opposition by refusing to offer up the state seat of Footscray to the “so-called Turkish bloc”.
• The preselection to replace Richard Torbay as Nationals candidate for New England will be held in Tamworth on April 13. Barnaby Joyce will certainly be a starter, but there have been suggestions he will or should face opposition from Nationals Farmers Federation president Alexander “Jock” Laurie, including from Calare MP John Cobb.
• With the state election out of the way, WA Labor is now proceeding with federal election preselection processes, chief among which is determining its Senate election ticket and filling the casual vacancy caused by the retirement of Chris Evans. Suggestions Labor might be reduced to one Senate seat in Western Australia mean that more than prestige is at stake in ordering the top two positions on the election ticket. The two incumbents are Louise Pratt of the AMWU Left and Mark Bishop of the SDA Right, with the latter generally expected to be deposed by Joe Bullock, who succeeded him as the SDA’s state secretary. Other nominees are former state Bassendean MP Martin Whitely, a critic of party preselection processes generally and the Joe Bullock ascendancy in particular; Brett Treby, a Wanneroo councillor who ran for the state seat of Wanneroo; John Welch, secretary of the Western Australian Prison Officers’ Union; Kelly Shay, assistant state secretary of United Voice; and Sue Lines, assistant national secretary of United Voice.
• Sue Lines is getting more attention for her parallel nomination to succeed Chris Evans, a position claimed by the powerful United Voice sub-faction of the Left. Lines is rated as one of two-front runners along with Sharryn Jackson, who won the lower house seat of Hasluck in 2001 and 2007 and lost it in 2004 and 2010. The aforementioned Martin Whitely, John Welch and Kelly Shea have also nominated for the Evans vacancy, together with Linda Morich and Ashburton councillor Peter Foster. Both matters are scheduled to be determined at a state executive meeting on April 15.
Finally, a review of Newspoll’s performance at the WA election and some related musings on the two-party preferred measure. The scorecard for Newspoll reads thus:
2PP ALP L-NP GRN Result 57.5? 33.1 53.2 8.4 Newspoll 59.5 32 54 8 Difference +2.0? -1.1 +0.8 -0.4
This is a very sound result, with all primary votes well within the margin of error. However, it’s worth noting that it’s the eighth pre-election Newspoll out of the last nine to shoot low on the Labor primary vote, and the seventh to do so by more than a percentage point – remembering that in most cases two-party preferred ended up near the mark because support for the Greens had been overstated (although this hasn’t been evident on the two most recent occasions).
Keeping in mind that my two-party result is based on incomplete data, Newspoll’s two-party preferred result proved less accurate than the primary votes, which is largely down to an issue with two-party preferred calculations involving the Liberals and Nationals. Newspoll looks to have followed the usual method of simply combining the two and then distributing minor party preferences between the two major parties, but this doesn’t account for the fact that in three-cornered contests some Liberal and Nationals votes end up in the Labor pile when the contest is boiled down to Labor-versus-Liberal or Labor-versus-Nationals for two-party purposes. This is of little concern at federal elections, where competitive Nationals-versus-Liberal contests are uncommon. However, the WA election had no fewer than 17 three-cornered contests out of 59 seats, with both Liberal and Nationals polling strongly in most cases.
It should be noted that it makes a difference whether a Labor-versus-Liberal or Labor-versus-Nationals count is used, because Nationals voters are more likely to preference against their coalition partners than Liberal voters. This seems to be especially pronounced in those regional corners of the state where the Nationals have won a new constituency of former Labor voters who are still not keen on the Liberals. The precise result of the final two-party result will thus be influenced by the WAEC’s ruling on whether it conducts Labor-versus-Nationals or Labor-versus-Liberal counts in the eight seats where such counts remain to be published. In 2008 they went Labor-versus-Liberal in each case, which meant the Nationals were only used in seats where the final count had been between them and Labor (I believe this only applied to Pilbara, where only 7517 formal votes were cast, and that this will again be the case this time). The results were thus more favourable to Labor than they might have been if the WAEC had employed an alternative rationale, such as conducting Nationals-versus-Labor counts where the seat was won by the Nationals, as was the case in six of the eight seats with counts still outstanding.
And then there’s that other unambiguous claim..: “Generic Person”…are we talking self-deprecation as a form of humour in choosing THAT call?
Superannuation tax concessions to the wealthiest 10% cost the average employed person about $15.00 per week, increasing to about $22.00 per week in two years’ time if nothing is changed. If Rupert Murdoch decided that he didn’t approve of superannuation tax concessions, this would be the screaming headline in all our main tabloids.
($30 billion in superannuation tax concessions, increasing to $45 billion in two years; 30% of that goes to the top 10%; 11.6 million employed persons in Australia)
SO
Is BHP a private company? Is Holden a private company?
They receive huge sums of money from the government.
Are people wanting to stop funding of private schools also wanting governments to stop propping up businesses like the car industry?
I do love how progressives here argue that Labor should focus on delivering a progressive policy agenda, often singling out ‘middle class welfare’ as one of the targets, then when there’s a suggestion that Labor is going to do just that get all concerned about why they’re doing it now, when they’re so far behind in the polls…
Mutty
I suggest you read WB methodology.
Only half of the data included in the update is post the fake challenge and retirements. Of this two of the polls seemed to show no shift, suggesting that they collected data BEFORE the ministers resigned.
Next week the real impact of the last week of trouble will be felt. THEN you can gloat just 45/55 but till then keep the champagne on ice.
Heard Morrison with Sabra Lane on 774 this morning.
Subject, of course, BOATS.
I was pleased that she got annoyed enough with him to accuse him of verballing her 😉
His message seemed to be that when the Abbott govt orders the Navy to turn back the boats (if it’s safe cop out included) the servants of the govt will do what they are told, no questions asked.
He doesn’t actually know how this will happen I think, doesn’t know how, where or when, but THEY WILL OBEY ORDERS.
I’d love a bit of whistleblowing from (prhaps retired) chaps to put a bit of detail on this stuff.
With the communication on the fire situation.
Any message has to get from the fire ground through to District command then on to State command,takes time. In the last two days there was a fast moving grass fire with a predicted two wind shifts on the fire ground. Grass fires can and do travel very fast
Have your fire plan handy and if not sure put the plan into effect. See smoke, smoke over head, time is of the essence
Zoomster
From the article I read yesterday, the less said about one of the women candidates the better.
Bankruptcy makes you ineligible I think
Kinkajou
I didn’t know you could still get it.
Question is whether to just leave it to the Liberals to deal with. There’s some argument that allowing the Liberals to take unpopular decisions may put Labor at a more competitive position in 2016/7 should the election be a wipeout as the polls suggest.
I allowed to point out the shameless self-promotion of BludgerTrack on the headline ? 😀
Zoomster
I differ from most here and have a more Whitlamite view. I believe in middle class welfare so long as it is equitable for every one.
I hate the means test divide because it makes welfare seem somehow weak or unjustified.
Programs like medicare and public education and pensions are popular because they apply to EVERYONE not just the “poor”
Once you start means testing welfare its support in the community falls, quality declines and it becomes a target for conservatives to cut.
ltep
Problem is I doubt that the Libs will fix the super as it will hurt their mover and shakers. Perhaps best for Labor to do it. Smart selling could persuade voters that … yes, I know.
There is an illustrated story over one-third of page 2 of the
News Corp Staff Bulletin, Australian EditionAFR this morning of the impendinghttp://www.afr.com/p/national/brooks_to_visit_australia_at_same_NdRBDs1PmFcxKNfNqLfhGK
More interesting grist for the mill of Stutchbury’s editorial judgement.
DTT
In three months time there’ll be no difference because the Polls over a short term will always be all over the place.
You should be good at looking at dots by now.
According to the AFR poll on present trends labor is heading for a shellacking with only 35 seats in the next parliament. Yet, according to the same poll, a majority do NOT want a change of government. I kid you not. That is just appalling.
Bottom line: JULIA MUST GO.
It won’t be long before the rest of caucus works out that the camarilla around Julia has been spouting nonsense when it says she can beat Abbott.
As the saying goes: We all go mad together, but we wake up one by one.
diog
Mexican pharmacy special I’m told
‘Superannuation tax concessions to the wealthiest 10% cost the average employed person about $15.00 per week, increasing to about $22.00 per week in two years’ time if nothing is changed.’
Gee how cool would it be if someone from the government could say something as concise and lucid as that.
daretotread
don’t necessarily disagree with you there – and I don’t think you’ll find many posts from me (if any) arguing for means testing.
However, what goes hand in hand with universal benefits is high rates of taxation, and — alas — that’s not a banner any Australian political party, including the Greens, seems prepared to wave.
What I am arguing is that it’s the height of hypocrisy to claim – as many here do – that Labor’s poor polling is the result of failing to prosecute a progressive agenda, and then to whinge about the polls when they try and do exactly that.
I think the evidence shows that Labor’s agenda is quite progressive enough, thank you, and that further lurches to the left will see a further erosion of the Labor vote.
To make that observation, I point out, is not to agree that it’s a good thing.
KevinOneSeven
gee, a totally unpredicable response from someone with a moniker like yours!
Of course, another way of interpreting this disconnect is that voters are sending a stern message to Labor – ‘we want to vote for you, but you need to get your s*it together’ – totally understandable in the circumstances.
I will note that the circumstances also include media reporting based on leaks designed to undermine the current leader – something which is also happening on the other side of the aisle, but which is not nearly so widely reported.
At the end of ‘Mad as Hell’ last night, there was a montage of Liberal MPs – a sort of ‘these are your future leaders’ thing.
Interesting to note that Sophie Mirabella’s picture was the one which got the biggest laugh.
Now before everyone choruses that we cannot afford it here are some suggestions
1.Put a 60% or even 75% tax rate for people earning more than $1 mill per year. If just 1000 individuals earn on average $2 mill per year, then you raise $200 mill from a 60% tax hike. If there are say 10,000 in this income range then you get $2 bill. No political damage either.
2. Place a tax on all moneys sent off shore or changed into other currencies. This would give a mild stimulation to Australian manufacturing and also raise a motza. It might slow the offshoring of Australian jobs. It should be set at a level which as a minimum recovers the cost of unemployment benefits paid by the Australian government when a company decides to offshore jobs.
my say
Posted Thursday, March 28, 2013 at 9:20 am | Permalink
scrolling through seems some fell off the wagon,
plse renew your pledge, note the concern trolls
there are some that just post things like, gosh we have to stop this maddness or dear this is dreadful ect, one in particular i notice
. concern trolls come in many forms.
easter
time of renewal for all not just christians, symbol of love and light and new beginings,
the betrayal, to have happened and noted and courageously delt with , in the lead up to easter has great symbolisim for me i would say most christians,
30 people they say 30 peices of silver ?
easter is a symbol of great light {good} renewal,lets stand together as one with our PM and courageous stand this past week,
it starts here with your pledge , easter is a time of good over evil
enjoy the break, but the pledge worked so well dont let if fall over, think of jullia and how steaddfast she is in her committments. we can do the same
hope you all enjoy tooomuch cholcolate easter egg searches are my favourite for the
It’s ok poster 66 , laurie ferguson and Joel fitzgibbon will still make it in the new parliament to lead the fight back.
Apology to William – he’s referring to a slightly different article to the one I thought he was.
But really, who would have thought ‘The Age’ would basically run an article based on almost identical information two days running?
I thought the idea of calling it ‘news’ was that it was, you know, based on ‘new’ information…
my favourite for sunday is the easter egg hunt with the gran children,
Mutt
Sorry that is just wRONg.
Three polls now have shown huge swings. Not sure if William will include the recent JWS, and he is yet to include the Morgan megapoll. If these are included then the pol tracker will change dramatically.
William, needs to start to include megapolls or his system will become outmoded almost as soon as he sets it up.
Yes. It’s very interesting that Abbott has already flagged that any changes by Labor will not be reversed by the Liberals. Even they know the present situation cannot go on unchecked and are quite willng to let Labor take the blame for making the hard decisions.
When that is done, rich people leave in droves and tax havens benefit.
Besides, there are many “poor” voters on $1m or more. Just ask Fitzgibbon. 😉
my goodness your lot are hoplesss
PHES WILL NOT BE HAPPY
o well we tried
zoomster the idea is not to converse with these people
think of Julia she would NOT be conversing with
for instance fitzgibbon, i imagine she would just let him talk to him self these people love you to converse with them it takes up space so the labor voice does not get out,
sadly you have let the side downa again all that have not stuck to your pledge
and i am not sorry for plain speaking,
William’s given his reasons for not including it.
Can you read, daretotread?
There is not enough data from the megapolls to include them with any confidence.
Another missive to try to keep the tax debate on here going. It sounds as if they are considering upping the concessional super tax rate for some or all of the contributions made by PAYE wage earners earning over $150k (or thereabouts). Presumably this would be from 15 cents to 30 cents in the dollar. This would raise up to $3,750 per taxpayer from this group, which has also been heavily hit in recent years in terms of the private health insurance rebate and changes to family payments.
I think these sort of changes are reasonable to the extent that the budget needs urgently to be brought closer to surplus (economists seem to be divided on this), but I’m still bothered that the strategy appears to be to make yet another hit on this group and then “give it to Gonski”.
I really don’t think Gonski is a vote-winner. It might be worth doing anyway: we’ll have to see about that (I still fear it’s mainly about giving more $$$ to whinging teachers). But the people who will benefit are typically rusted-on Labor.
If I were wanting to start a class war in Australian politics, I don’t think I’d pick a time when the unemployment rates, inflation and interest rates were so low, and a huge proportion of the Australian population are taking an overseas holiday each year.
there was a liberal politician with the name
ST. JOHN do you realy think a labor person would pick a name like that,
are you all blind,
WAKE UP THE JULIA NEEDS YOU its holiday time and the trolls are not working they are working here
one thing would be nice is to see this place see no one here tomorrow
but then i would be dreaming
Sigh.
OK, so there’s a preselection for a seat with one of the biggest margins in the country, and people are fighting over who the candidate is going to be.
Didn’t we just go through exactly the same thing in the ACT?
Isn’t one of the whinges about the Labor party to do with democratic processes and transparency?
Surely several candidates offering themselves up for preselection, backed by different groups, having a robust contest for ‘a job for life’ is the essence of democracy?
Apparently not. If one takes ‘The Age’ reporting at face value, it’s a sign of poor management.
Obviously, to take ‘The Age’ ‘s logic further, Julia Gillard should have just imposed a candidate on Gellibrand, to avoid the appearance of party disunity.
Of course, that wouldn’t have caused any ructions at all….
Agree darn. Equity has to drive economic policy.
Crazy ideas reign here.
one thing i dont read polls up there above my head
why would any one get so involved in polling six months from an electin
it really annoys me,, that its even up there
had my say,l
mysay
incorrect. The idea is not to talk about He Who Should Not Be Named and not to engage with a handful of posters who are here to push a certain agenda.
I would also point out I haven’t signed up for ‘The Pledge’ because I reserve the right to make my own decisions, being a grown up and all, despite appreciating its motives.
Vacating the ground entirely means the other side wins.
Depends on the process you’d imagine. If multiple candidates put themselves forward for selection by one person, for instance, that wouldn’t be democratic.
i am afraind cartri some people here need to join
a group to help them stay away from talking to trolls
posters annom or something like that
they dont see evil if it came up and bit them
i think we all need to go to the garden of
The Garden of Gethsemane
Not necessarily if the commentary offered up by the other side is rubbish. Then they defeat themselves.
This unwanted interference from Fitzgibbon could well turn out ok if the government is planning to go higher up the food chain than expected. I doubt that there would be much concern in voterland if people on more than say $300,000 per annum were asked to pay a bit more.
Expert Commentary
■Tingle | The great irony is that some of those most responsible for Labor’s present woes are likely to survive the coming rout, while much of the rising talent – among both Rudd and Gillard backers – will fall.
Tingle has got it- we’re left with Gillard, Shorten, conroy,
Morning all.
Is there a link to Latham’s AFR article?
Meanwhile the PM is standing firm on education reform.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/16460536/gillard-warns-wa-over-education-reforms/
yesterday zoomster they where all ignored
we had a great day discussing policy
dont u see these people put YOU on a merry go round
u of all people who have so much knowledge to share with the lurkers
who come here, instead you answere and statment and questions put to you by liberal trolls who would
never concede any points
so then you have to talk to them again
if you see something that is wrong post what is right
yesterday they had me convinced, that the super platform was already agreed to
RATSTARS to his great credit explained it to me
which was then explaining to any one reading the blogg
do you realy think lurkers needing to know things are going to read all your backward and forward posts
with people who dont want to get the answer at all
they just want to take your time they would know by now that you are an alp member
so its there way of shutting you down,
i do not converse with any of them
if you where on a tv show yes you would have to counter the argument
but here where you can write what the truth it is stays in black and white and can be just read
i think this blog is made up of a lot people who just want to argu a fact, we are past that time now
we just want people puzzled to read the truth
meher
Not sure why you have such a bee in your bonnet about teachers (were you bitten by one as a child?) but it’s clouding your view of Gonski.
The present school funding system is unsustainable, and directs funding to private schools and away from public schools. If allowed to continue, the Budget forecasts are that this trend will accelerate over the next few years.
Obviously this is inequitable, particularly given that there is no discernible educational benefit in providing more funding to private schools and there is one (arguably) to providing more for public schools.
If we continue your (ignorant) argument that school funding is all about teachers, what you appear to be supporting is that more money go to private school teachers (who get longer holidays, btw, than public school ones, which seems to be one of your bugbears).
If we look at the issue without those blinkers, we have an inequitable and unsustainable funding system which needs to be overhauled.
If you’re a sensible human being, you don’t overhaul something without looking at what needs to be done and the best way to do it — which is what Gonski does.
You also then base your actions on expert evidence.
Very few people looking at the situation with education funding dispute the idea that something needs to be done, and needs to be done with some urgency.
Gonski has provided answers to the questions of what needs to be done, and how it should happen.
daretotread@45
dtt
Thanks for that. So the average Newspoll covers around 10 people per electorate.
Absolutely no reason to take them seriously at all then and anyone who does is living in la-la land.
Point well made Finns. And that is what the government needs to be doing from now on whenever the term “class warfare” is raised. Point out the unacceptable reality that the less well off are currently subsidising the very well off. If the term “fair go” still has any currency in this country you would think that such an approach just might ring a chord.
mysay
I don’t know whose posts you’re reading, but they’re not mine.
Mine today have been about policy.
I don’t see daretotread or meher as trolls, and I can’t see who else I’ve responded to who could be described as such.
I have made some general comments about misleading newspaper columns and some about false arguments but can’t see how either can be classed as engaging with trolls.
But I’m not interested in defending myself further: as I said, I didn’t take The Pledge and don’t intend to.
@ezraklein: I don’t think this should be particularly decisive, but gay marriage: Good for the budget! http://t.co/sT2yePh3iL