The central Queensland electorate of Capricornia has existed since federation, with Rockhampton as its constant as boundaries shifted over the years. It currently has Rockhampton at its southern coastal end, from which it extends northwards to the southern outskirts of Mackay and westwards through farming and coal mining communities as far as Belyando 250 kilometres inland. Rockhampton has kept the seat strong for Labor for most of its history, the party’s only defeats after 1961 coming with the demise of the Whitlam and Keating governments in 1975 and 1996 (the margin on the former occasion being 136 votes).
The proverbial baseball bat having been wielded in 1996, the seat was recovered for Labor in 1998 by Kirsten Livermore, member of the “soft Left” tendency associated with Martin and Laurie Ferguson. Livermore picked up an 8.8% swing on her debut and retained the seat with reasonably comfortable margins thereafter, until an 8.7% swing in 2007 boosted it to very safe territory. Then came a 0.7% redistribution adjustment followed by an 8.4% swing amid the Queensland backlash of 2010, which reined it back to 3.7%. In December 2012 she announced she would not seek another term, as she wished to spend more time with her family.
A preselection to choose Livermore’s successor was held in February and won by Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner, former Belyando Shire mayor and current Isaac Regional councillor. This was despite the local party ballot being won 65-37 by Paul Hoolihan, who along with most of his Labor colleagues lost his seat of Keppel at the 2012 state election. However, Hoolihan was overwhelmed by a 41-9 to win for Freeleagus in the 50% component of the vote determined by the state party’s electoral college, which consists mostly of union delegates. Michael McKenna of The Australian reported that Freeleagus was backed by the Left faction CFMEU, but also harnessed support from the AWU Right at the behest of Wayne Swan. The implication appeared to be that this was a counter to Kevin Rudd, whose “Old Guard” Right faction included Hoolihan. The deal was also said to require that the Left back AWU Right over Old Guard candidates in future state preselections.
The Liberal National Party has again endorsed its candidate from 2010, Michelle Landry, who owns a small book-keeping business in Yeppoon. Landry won preselection ahead of real estate agent Alan Cornick and anti-council amalgamation campaigner Paul Lancaster.
Lizzie 85
Thanks for the link and an excellent quote. Unfortunately all of Gillard’s recent policy announcements are headed in the opposite direction – propping up the AWU and manufacturing. Yesterday’s policies will not win today’s elections.
I thought the papers – even the Courier mail – were fair this morning. Honest reporting of the callamatous polls, but also Abbotts gaffs, bagging the racist Morrison, and humour on Rudd. Yet the Labor bus is still headed off the cliff and refusing to change direction. It is not just leadership. There are problems with policy, communication, strategy, candidate selection (witness the ignoring of the local branch in William’s lead in on Capricornia) and the corrupt culture in NSW. At this point every Scott Driscoll clone will be angling for preselection all over Australia. They will skate in.
Off to do the shopping.
[Lizzie
Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 11:01 am | PERMALINK
Hi Mari
Congrats for all the good work you are doing on Twitter. We mortals cannot compete]
Don’t believe that re us mortals, but I appreciate what you say, can only try 🙂 the other tweeters who retweet and interact makes me very happy
@billmckibben: So–we need you again to help fight KXL. The Koch Bros never give up so I guess we better not either http://t.co/pif1Kw9lTJ
@billmckibben: NYT kills its Wall St. blog, no I mean its Wheels blog, no I mean its Bucks blog. No, actually I mean its Green blog. http://t.co/VxlYjlEFT8
[The founder of Groupon, Andrew Mason, has penned a refreshingly honest memo to staff upon his sacking as chief executive of the floundering online daily deals pioneer.
“After four and a half intense and wonderful years as CEO of Groupon, I’ve decided that I’d like to spend more time with my family. Just kidding – I was fired today.
If you’re wondering why, you haven’t been paying attention,” Mason wrote in a memo addressed to “People of Groupon”.]
http://www.brw.com.au/p/entrepreneurs/was_fired_says_groupon_andrew_mason_07rn8jl1CpxXKEbgZrNksN
His severance pay was about $370 or so. But he has stock value at about $40m
If the continued pitch to the ignorant, self-centered bogan population of Western Sydney succeeds Australia is rooted.
@SwannyDPM: Last night I delivered a speech on education and opportunity: the Mick Young Legacy http://t.co/6Zj4RadhW9
The world does not come to an end when your political party loses office you know.
Socrates@101
Socrates, why do you have such a bias against manufacturing?
Germany, for example, has a strong manufacturing industry despite having a high exchange rate.
They even compete in manufacturing such things as foot-ware because they go for quality in niche markets.
I can see a strong argument for focusing on areas of manufacturing where Australia can compete and we do have such manufacturers. Just not enough of them.
Also, given that manufacturing is so automated these days, to what extent are high wages really a factor in inability to compete? Without embarking on a research project to did out the numbers, I suspect wages are a relatively minor factor in out apparent inability to compete.
I am also very uncomfortable at the notion of Australia being a nation that doesn’t make anything and just relies on extractive and service industries.
Toorak Toff
instead of moaning on this blog and achieving nothing meaningful, print yourself off a couple of pro Labor leaflets (you can write your own, doesn’t take long, or find one of the many available on line), and go and stuff them in some letter boxes.
It’s a lovely day for it.
Sounds like a brisk walk in the fresh air would do you good.
Assett sales set to cost hundreds of regional jobs:
http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/assett-sales-set-cost-hundreds-regional-jobs/1775678/
That’s Newman & Abbott for you.
BK
Mark Latham is right about the Western Sydney stereotype. Just consider one of those suburbs is Cabrammatta fondly nicknamed Vietnamatta.
It is Western Sydney that is the traditional ally and home of equality. All Labor has to do is to engage that part of Western Sydney that can overcome the poison spouted by Morrison and Co.
I believe Labor can and will do this. Western Sydney has a good representation in Mardi Gras tonight too and it was in Western Sydney that Marriage Equality was first made a big election issue in 2010 at the Rooty Hill forum.
That stereoptype of Western Sydney is a media and LNP myth.
Poll the same idiots in Western Sydney who crave a Rudd return on simple math or English or history and laugh/cry at the results.
Isn’t it a little bit bizarre the same guy who claimed he wouldn’t “lurch to the right” on asylum (he would have, zero doubt about it) gets a large part of his support from the most racist and xenophobic electorates in Australia? Or that they vote Labor at all? Obviously these are now natural Coalition seats, and they can fucking keep them.
Abbott Presser from Western Sydney coming up.
Costello’s plan to slash Queensland debt:
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/costellos-plan-to-slash-queensland-debt-20130301-2f9uv.html
It suggests health, bus, rail, child safety, mental health, corrective services and public housing services could be outsourced.
guytaur
Immigrants often have a an equally or even more hostile attitude to AS than the average stereotypical bogan.
Once they’re here it appears they want the gate slammed shut.
I don’t think decrying the people of Western Sydney (or any other voters) as bogans helps.
The OM are now at the stage where they feel no evidence is needed as they just hurl abuse and derision at Labor. This is a sign of their emptiness but it is also harder to respond to effectively.
For a lesson in partisan invention and gymnastic spin, Shanahan should be compulsory listening. On radio this morning he attacked the PM for the Rooty Hill “stunt”, because he does not know what she will be saying beforehand. Anything could happen! Its a circus! This makes her a figure of ridicule and she is being mocked by journos according to Dennis as he reports on their mocking and his own in a circular pattern.
He also claimed without any evidence that the announcement of an early election date has only cemented opinions and more people are confirmed in their attitude to vote against Labor. This hardening of the vote has happened at 31% for Labor..
On asylum seekers DS was asked about Morrison’s statement and DS reckons the govt is creating an underclass of unemployed who will only be ostracised and forced into terrible living conditions and it is all the governments fault. This is particularly clever as he turned Morrison’ statement into a plea of concern for the welfare of the asylum seekers against the unfair ostracising of them caused by the Government. That takes some skill.
Bemused and Mod Lib
[So what on earth is lizzie referring to?
How about an honest explanation lizzie?]
There was no dishonesty. Don’t be so aggressive.
I was simply referring to Anne Summers’ para which I quoted above my remark and saying it reminded me of several posters. I quote it again.
[She’s such a loser, this woman, they say. Ergo, everything, every single little thing she does, is wrong, stupid, ill-judged, and thus both the reason she will lose the election and why she deserves to.]
Quite obvious, I think, that there are several PBers who have this attitude – on both sides.
[How many of you actually would answer an automated phone poll?]
I’ve had a couple in the last year. As with all polling I just try to be random, or if possible give contadictory answers to similar questions. Why make life easy for polling companies & psephologists.
Excellent article by Peter Harcher which realistically sets out some of the dilemmas facing Labor.
Hating Kevin, loving the saviour
[If you haven’t already seen the Liberal Party’s new anti-Rudd attack ad on YouTube, you need to know that it is a staccato collation of soundgrabs of the Gillard government’s damnations of Kevin. The executioners on the executed. Labor on Labor. And every bit as ugly as that sounds.
And Rudd loves it.
…
Instead, it’s really just evidence of how nervous the Liberals are at the prospect of facing Rudd at an election. It’s an implicit tribute to Rudd’s potential to upset the election the Coalition considers to be otherwise in the bag.
Is this why Rudd enjoys it so much? Perhaps. But what he’s laughingly told colleagues is that he considers it to be not only slightly desperate, but also a great character reference.
He’s right. By abusing Rudd a year ago, Gillard and her claque only lifted him higher in the esteem of the people. Rudd remains, by far, the preferred Labor leader. The venom, the bile, the anger spewing from the frontbench of the Gillard government has only demeaned the government itself.]
And the Gillard dilemma.
[The Prime Minister is trapped in a cycle of mistrust and mismanagement so vicious she cannot even make a routine visit to some marginal electorates in western Sydney without making it politically contentious and the subject of ridicule.
The best way for Gillard to improve her standing with the voters, it turns out, is to disappear.
“Her vote improved while she was away” on holidays, says the pollster for Newspoll, Martin O’Shannessy. “It’s something I’ve noticed the last couple of times Parliament’s been in recess too.”
Tony Abbott is no better, O’Shannessy says.
“They’re both unpopular, and they’re both less unpopular when they’re less visible.”
…
In other words, in an electorate of 14.3 million enrolled voters, Labor has lost the support of at least a million voters in the past 2½ years.
And its leader is held in such low regard she cannot campaign to win them back without risking that she will only drive Labor’s support lower still. Executing the most ordinary of political functions, such as a walk through the western suburbs of Sydney, now becomes as tricky as a high-wire routine.]
Could Rudd return?
[Gillard is showing evidence she doesn’t really think she can win the election. She seems to be working not to win the support of the nation but to hold the support of her party long enough to make it to election day. Long enough, in other words, to keep Kevin Rudd at bay. That seems to be the reason she is making her unhappy tour of western Sydney. Not in the expectation of winning the love of the people, but in the hope of holding the loyalty of her local MPs.
Gillard is not campaigning to win against Abbott so much as she is positioning to frustrate a Rudd restoration.
The key questions are whether the party will decide to restore Rudd to the leadership in time, and whether Rudd would make a real difference to the Labor vote.
These are not judgments for Rudd. Much as he would like vindication, he has vowed repeatedly he will not challenge again, and he cannot. If he did, he would break his word, disappointing the electorate, and he would split the party, making him heir to a fetid mess. He won’t run; the party would need to draft him and would need to present something passing for a united front, insofar as it could.
The despair in Labor ranks at the moment is probably deep enough to give him a majority of caucus votes. But there is no way to be sure, and there is no candidate. Gillard’s character and her behaviour give every indication she will not step aside, even under pressure from within. In her private moments she might be resigned to losing the election, but in no moment is she prepared to resign for Rudd.
So even though the opportunity for Rudd has never been greater, the lack of a mechanism means the chances of it happening are no better than ever.]
Could Rudd make a difference?
[So even though the opportunity for Rudd has never been greater, the lack of a mechanism means the chances of it happening are no better than ever.
What if the party found some way to restore Rudd, regardless? Would he make a real difference to Labor’s vote? It’s impossible to know, but there are some guide points. A national Nielsen poll last September asked people their voting intentions under the current leaders, then asked them to imagine Rudd was Labor leader and again tested their voting intentions. Rudd as leader added 10 percentage points to the Labor vote. That’s enough to transform the election outcome.
A Galaxy poll put the same questions to voters in Queensland last week and found an even more dramatic result. Rudd as leader would add 14 percentage points to the Labor vote in that state. Again, it would represent a transformation of the electoral prospects.]
10,000 more waiting for surgery under Baillieu:
http://www.theage.com.au/data-point/10000-more-waiting-for-surgery-under-baillieu-20130228-2f98b.html
That’s Faillieu for you….
And that’s hasn’t got to do with anything in the Health cuts from the Federal government, because the waiting list was already HUGE enough as it was.
twaddle
Myth. These people are like the rest of us. This has not just changed with this generation.
We have had immigrants for decades. Vietnamese came by boat in the Fraser years.
Its a new lot of immigrants now.
The chlldren of that generation are in exactly the same boat as children of Greek immigrants in Melbourne.
@bemused/120
Peter never liked Labor.
He’s just writing stuff because it’s the trend of news reporters don’t have anything else to do.
Harcher’s article has a few untested assumptions there.
For example, the comment that the less visible Gillard is the better she performs isn’t borne out by the evidence.
She polled better immediately BEFORE she went on holiday – it is during the holiday recess that her vote fell.
And, of course, when she was at her most visible, with her misogyny speech going viral, her popularity improved.
The same was true of Rudd, of course – when he went on holiday, his numbers tanked (which sparked his apparent conviction that everything fell apart when he wasn’t there, and seemed to make him more determined to try and control everything — something I noticed at the time).
Abbott’s the one whose numbers improve when he’s invisible.
[ 4% margin of error is a big error rate for the liberal areas ]
Margins for error will always be bigger under a Coalition government!
Steve777
“I don’t think decrying the people of Western Sydney (or any other voters) as bogans helps.”
No but it has massive explanatory power.
bemused:
[Excellent article by Peter Harcher]
Excellent article & Peter Hartcher are mutually exclusive when it comes to Australian politics. More proof that you like anything or anyone that promotes a Rudd return regardless of merit.
@QandA: Did the PM’s visit to Sydney’s western suburbs turn into a lightning rod for disaffected voters? #QandA http://t.co/Dg3djphZP1
Risky asking before the visit
zoomster@124
Nice to see you keeping the faith zoomster.
In spite of the dire situation and all the evidence to the contrary.
Think Big@127
You have been reading too much of BBs ranting and raving.
I know its swatting a mosquito but then there is the idiot who interviewed Dennis Shanahan. He attacked the PM for staying in a hotel.
Interviewer; This is all demeaning to the office of PM, there should be courtesy and respect. For her to move into a hotel room in RootyHill instead of staying in the provided accommodation at Kirribilli is absolutely demeaning the office of PM .
This is the same idiot who laughed his head off 2 years ago when a talkback caller suggested the Army assassinate the PM. Is it any wonder I hold the Right in contempt.
@abcnews: Emerson plays down damning western Sydney poll http://t.co/Tc1FQMeqgG
“@ABCNews24: Now on @ABCNews24 Oppn Leader Tony Abbott has been speaking in Sydney after meeting w/ community members http://t.co/3YXdj8bPNi #auspol”
bemused
pointing out a factual flaw in an article has nothing to do with ‘keeping the faith’.
If you want to criticise my comment, find the figures which prove what I’ve said to be incorrect.
If all you can do is sneer at me, then that suggests that you can’t and my criticism of the article and its assumptions is correct.
Abbott desperate. Campaigning on State issues
I think bemused should join the Coalition for the smear campaign.
bemused@96
I presume lizzie is referring to the fact that like Mod Lib and rummel, you would rather see Abbott as PM than Gillard.
But she is wrong to lump you all together like that, since Mod Lib and rummel are at least honest about it.
You have been caught out many times with your Gillard hatred, even though you have also said that neither Rudd nor Gillard are likely to lose the next election.
I know most posters here prefer to just ignore your anti-Gillard rants. Mostly, I do too. But I also feel it is necessary for some of us here to point out your real motivations occasionally, just so new posters don’t get too confused.
Player One
[I presume lizzie is referring to the fact that like Mod Lib and rummel, you would rather see Abbott as PM than Gillard.
But she is wrong to lump you all together like that, since Mod Lib and rummel are at least honest about it.]
Sigh. No I wasn’t. Bemused does not want an Abbott government. See my #118.
zoomster@134
Quibbling about detail is merely a means of distracting from the overall messages which are correct.
Gillard is widely distrusted and unpopular in the electorate.
Much of the electorate is just not listening to her.
Rudd will not challenge.
etc.
Abbott in Western Sydney to avoid Mardi Gras? We know he fears those homosexuals
@bemused/139
So again you making excuses to attack others.
zoidlord@136
“>zoidlord@136
zoidlord@136
No thanks, I will campaign for Labor, no matter who is leader.
Oops – in my post above, the para that says
[ … you have also said that neither Rudd nor Gillard are likely to lose the next election. ]
should be “you have also said that neither Rudd nor Gillard are likely to win the next election”
Apologies.
A number of #MSMhacks have criticised Morriscum’s demonisation of the AS but nobody has stuck into Abbott for condoning & encouraging it
@bemused/142
Sure.
[ Sigh. No I wasn’t. Bemused does not want an Abbott government. See my #118. ]
Sorry if I misrepresented you. But I think we all know what bemused really wants.
Z, he has.
[I think bemused should join the Coalition for the smear campaign.]
bemused
ah, so I was right. Good.
Anyone who doesn’t campaign Labor (regardless of current leader) is risking An Abbott Gov.
Including the current policies such as the NBN is at risk of cancellation and the return of Telstra 2.0.
Player One@137
If you believe that you have shit for brains.
The last thing I want is Abbott for PM and that is the reason why I would like to see Labor led by the person most likely to defeat Abbott.
Where have I ever said that neither Rudd nor Gillard are likely to lose the next election?
Stop making stuff up.