Seat of the week: Capricornia

It took the landslide defeats of the Whitlam and Keating governments to loosen Labor’s grip on the central Queensland seat of Capricornia. The risk of a repeat has increased with the recently announced retirement of sitting member Kirsten Livermore.

The central Queensland electorate of Capricornia has existed since federation, with Rockhampton as its constant as boundaries shifted over the years. It currently has Rockhampton at its southern coastal end, from which it extends northwards to the southern outskirts of Mackay and westwards through farming and coal mining communities as far as Belyando 250 kilometres inland. Rockhampton has kept the seat strong for Labor for most of its history, the party’s only defeats after 1961 coming with the demise of the Whitlam and Keating governments in 1975 and 1996 (the margin on the former occasion being 136 votes).

The proverbial baseball bat having been wielded in 1996, the seat was recovered for Labor in 1998 by Kirsten Livermore, member of the “soft Left” tendency associated with Martin and Laurie Ferguson. Livermore picked up an 8.8% swing on her debut and retained the seat with reasonably comfortable margins thereafter, until an 8.7% swing in 2007 boosted it to very safe territory. Then came a 0.7% redistribution adjustment followed by an 8.4% swing amid the Queensland backlash of 2010, which reined it back to 3.7%. In December 2012 she announced she would not seek another term, as she wished to spend more time with her family.

A preselection to choose Livermore’s successor was held in February and won by Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner, former Belyando Shire mayor and current Isaac Regional councillor. This was despite the local party ballot being won 65-37 by Paul Hoolihan, who along with most of his Labor colleagues lost his seat of Keppel at the 2012 state election. However, Hoolihan was overwhelmed by a 41-9 to win for Freeleagus in the 50% component of the vote determined by the state party’s electoral college, which consists mostly of union delegates. Michael McKenna of The Australian reported that Freeleagus was backed by the Left faction CFMEU, but also harnessed support from the AWU Right at the behest of Wayne Swan. The implication appeared to be that this was a counter to Kevin Rudd, whose “Old Guard” Right faction included Hoolihan. The deal was also said to require that the Left back AWU Right over Old Guard candidates in future state preselections.

The Liberal National Party has again endorsed its candidate from 2010, Michelle Landry, who owns a small book-keeping business in Yeppoon. Landry won preselection ahead of real estate agent Alan Cornick and anti-council amalgamation campaigner Paul Lancaster.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,019 comments on “Seat of the week: Capricornia”

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  1. What Rummel, Mod lib and a few other right-wingers here omit to contemplate is the social legalities of their philosophical position.
    Of course, sitting here in Oz’, quite comfortably ensconsed in all the trappings of a SOCIALLY secure environment eg. ; medical, legal, social saftey-net, policed streets etc…..they can afford to mouth their perceived virtues of the “individulist entrepreneur” and his meanderings into and out of a capital-based society, creating and taking wealth while at it, as they perceive is his right.

    What they ( and a majority of right-wingers) fail to recognise is the “natural social legalities” of their actions. For every society in every time in history, whatever the culture, whatever the geography..there have been boundaries of social legalities that cannot be crossed (within that society) without social and physical collapse. History and archival evidence record these disasters….and brutal they are!

    The social legalities are thus : Thou shalt not kill(within your own society)…:Thou shalt not rob, steal or take from (those within your own society)…Thou shalt not isolate nor victimise minorities (within your own society)…Thou shalt not capitalise on opportunities that will dimish the social or capital position of others (within your own society) there are others on a sliding scale of relevance.

    Quite simple really…but like the thief who stands outside a house contemplating his next action…once he crosses that threshold, he has committed the crime. Once the opportunist takes a first step to capitalise on a vulnerable social loophole to either make capital gain or to diminish his fellow citizens, he has crossed a threshold and has to be knowledgeable that he is committing a social crime…he has disturbed the smooth plane of “agreed equlibrium of social stability”.

    When the LNP. deliberately push to enrich certain sections of society at the expense of a majority of others, they are committing a crime…..we know it, they know it, but in their hunger to gain some sort of social-strata higher ground, to enrich themselves or their perceived associates, or to push forward a select philosophy that is exclusive of a great majority of the population, they have not considered the entire consequences of the societal damage they cause.

    A bit more critical theory analysis would not be remiss….but the application of such intellectual study to a social situation may be, for them, a bridge too far…..better to bring out the baseball bats!

  3. Seems a bit rough:

    [Up to 15 workers at the Agnew gold mine in the Goldfields have been sacked and banned for life from every Barminco project in the world after performing the Harlem Shake dance craze on site.

    The electrical workers employed by Hahn Electrical Contracting lost their six- figure salary jobs days ago for performing the stunt in the underground pit during a work break a week earlier.

    A YouTube video showing the eight workers performing the convulsive dance has gone viral.

    The Harlem Shake is the latest craze to sweep the world, with up to 4000 videos uploaded on the internet every day.]

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/16279456/wa-miners-sacked-for-harlem-shake/

  5. Diog 39 Fair comment. I still believe a good campaign when the issues are fully laid out for voters will drive a lot of Westies to reconsider their vote for Abbott.

  7. [Treasurer Wayne Swan says an Australian republic should be back on the agenda as the nation turns its focus to Asia.

    Mr Swan said it was “absurd” that an Australian could not be the nation’s head of state.

    “I’m well-versed in the counter argument ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’,” Mr Swan told the Mick Young Scholarship Trust dinner in Sydney on Friday.

    “I must say, the longer I’m in public life, the more that simplistic idea jars with me.

    “Because the fact is, by any credible yardstick, it is broken.”]

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/16279019/swan-appeals-for-new-republic-debate/

    Personally I think this is something Labor should aim for in its third term, when bipartisanship is attainable, Eg once Abbott and the rest of the Howard hangers-on in the Liberal party have retired after the election.

  8. [joe carli
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 10:01 am | PERMALINK
    …
    A bit more critical theory analysis would not be remiss….but the application of such intellectual study to a social situation may be, for them, a bridge too far…..better to bring out the baseball bats!]

    So you think ALP governments are better for folk than LNP governments and want to see the data?

    Over the last 40 years, under Liberal governments:
    1. Real non-farm wage rises have been higher under the Libs
    2. Unemployment has been lower under the Libs
    3. Inflation has been lower under the Libs
    4. Interest rates have been lower under the Libs

    So these poor vulnerable folk are more likely to have had a job, more likely to have had a pay rise, more likely to have paid less for stuff with that extra money and more likely to have been able to afford a home with cheaper interest rates under the Liberal Party of Australia.

    The Libs are better economic managers, and better economies are better for poorer folk.

    You can spread it around as much as you like but if there aint any money in the coffers, there aint anything to spread. The ALP can only borrow money to spread around for so long, it doesn’t go on for ever.

  11. joe carli
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 10:01 am | Permalink

    What Rummel, Mod lib and a few other right-wingers here omit to contemplate is the social legalities of their philosophical position.
    ————————————

    I dont think they really care what is actually happening, as long as it brings grief to labor supporters

  12. Mod Lib,

    Happy to have some links to ack up your comments.

    Just on interest rates, their was no de-regulation of financial markets between 1975-1983 when Coalition was in power so be careful the stats you use. I remember the double digit trifecta achieved by the Coalition (only government ever to achieve that magic economic feat) – double digit inflation, interest rates and unemployment.

    The possible incoming Coalition would be a totally different animal to previous right wing governments. Abbott will be lucky if governs for more than one term and look forward to calling him a liar when he lies not once but multiple times. Let us see the people go on about that if he becomes PM like they have with Julia. Methinks a double standard will be in play.

  14. lizzie:

    No-one ‘noticed’ because OM is too busy yapping about peripherals rather than actually reporting on what’s happening.

    The press gallery should’ve been all over Abbott and Hockey tying themselves in knots over their carbon abatement policy, but instead chose to be led, almost sleep-walking into the nonsense about the PM visiting suburban Sydney.

    It really is ridiculous.

  15. [Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 10:20 am | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib
    i
    answer would the coaliton be in the race if the media reported 50/50]

    So if the Coalition were not as popular would they be less popular?

    Wow, you got me there, well done! 🙂

  17. Mod Lib…I cannot debate #1 of your little list as it is too broad…but I know 3’s 23&4 are all incorrect…the actual figures have been argued on here and other sites many times…THAT is my accusation to you and others…you do not EVEN READ the reality, so continue to “commit the crime”.

  18. Mod Lib

    The coalition isnt the opposition its the media

    The coalition has not been praised once for going to do anything useful for Australia

  19. Dear ModLib

    as a trained historian, I’m used to assessing the value of the past in assessing the future.

    It’s dangerous to assume that because something happened in the past, then it’s going to work out the same way in the future.

    Today’s Liberal party is not the party of Howard. It’s not the party of Fraser. It is very far from the party of Menzies.

    To assess the economic credentials of a future Liberal government, you need to look at their present economic policies. Failing that, you need to examine what they say about economics.

    Given the scathing criticism the present Liberal party’s economic policies and pronouncements have received from those who are experts in the area, one can only conclude that their economic credentials are pretty woeful.

  20. If there is any government which would be voted in on false pretenses and illegitimate

    it is the coalition under Abbott

  21. I have a question for those with landlines.

    How many of you actually would answer an automated phone poll?

    When my landline was accessible to be rung I would screen calls and any calls that were not a human got blocked.

  23. Mod Lib @ 65…”So if the Coalition were not as popular would they be less popular?”
    But ARE they more popular? or is even THAT a OM. beat-up? Whose word have we that the LNP. are “in front” on the polls…Murdoch? Gina’s Daily?…Mod Lib’s?….there is so much bullshit being put out by the OM. it’s anybody’ss guess!….sure, the bookies have Tabbott in front…but how many suckers have done their dosh on a bookies “sure thing”?

  26. As Labor like the gallant 500 prepares to charge into the valley of death, there are still posters here who are whistling in the dark and dreaming of pie in the sky. I despair.

  27. lizzie

    [But a gorgeous (not) pic of Abbott eating bacon & eggs while a chap beside him looks revolted.]
    Loved the look on the guy’s face and Abbott looks decidely Mr Beanish.

  29. guytaur

    We have a land line but I pay for privacy. Whether this blocks poll interviewers I have no idea, but have never been polled. OTOH we are also outside the metrop area so miss out on all the sales rubbish. Thank goodness.

  30. Only Carlton and the samurai sudoku get the SMH through the door here…about 3 months left on discounted deal. May use those to find a book of sam-sods instead. Too toxic for bumwipes

  33. lizzie

    I think it does. This of course is my point about robot polls. I think the answers must be skewed because most people fight the call at dinner time by a business trying to sell something. Technology is the first line of defence.

    Then for those that do get through a lot of people hang up on those calls. This is bad enough for the traditional phone polling companies. How much worse for robot polls?

  35. Absolute must-read by Mark Latham.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/it_not_freak_show_out_west_SPd80c3BwAlnYHsc9M4MoL
    [The tragedy of modern Labor was the decision, after the party’s 1996 election loss, to shelve the Keating agenda and re-embrace the Crean-inspired claptrap of industry policy.

    Ultimately, the reason Labor has not successfully promoted its economic achievements in the region is that the party itself doesn’t believe in them.

    Old smokestack unions representing old smokestack industries have cajoled federal caucus into opposing economic rationalism and competition policy. This is a missed opportunity. The best way of handling a Santamaria acolyte such as Tony Abbott on economic issues is to attack him from the right.]
    …[In effect, we helped to create a new region through the reforms of the 1980s and ’90s – the greatest achievement in Labor history. Western Sydney has become a much better place for the true believers, a place with less poverty and more opportunity. But now, inexorably, it’s a tougher place for sustaining the public’s belief in a thing called Labor.

    As ever, the only answer is for the party to change, to update its structure and policies, to match the modern western Sydney ideal. Forget about the personality pap of Kevin Rudd and other short-term fixes.]

  37. Grim determination is better than denial, but the evidence points to a political sea change which will keep Labor out of office for decades. If a quick fix can prevent that, then go for it!

  38. Morning all. Laocoon, thanks for the link to the Buffett letter.

    I share Dio’s concern with the Reachtel poll results. A very significant swing on a large sample size means deep trouble. I really don’t see how that big a margin will be turned around in time. It is more than leadership. The SMH article is actually quite good at including reactions of a typical range of locals to local issues. I wish people in the Labor hierarchy would read those issues rather than rehash Rudd vs Gillard again. That is the contest no Liberal candidate can get too much of.

    At the risk of a personal bias, I note the mention of infrastructure and long traffic delays in west Sydney. They are indeed problems. They were never fixed by State Labor and are now unable to be fixed in time by polling day. It will take billions and five years. NSW rejected a private Macquarie proposal to build a fast metro to Parramatta a few years ago for its own failed Metro concept instead. If there was one thing Sussex Street knew nothing about, it was transport. If that arrogant, ignorant group had listened to professionals more, and corrupt mates less, their federal colleagues would not now be doomed.

  40. Toff

    I have seen no evidence of a political sea change that means Labor will be out for decades.

    If anything the opposite. The days of Menzies and Fraser of LNP born to rule and Labor only getting power on a protest vote are dead and buried

  43. There have been many views expressed in this blog on why people should not vote for TA. This article in CNN site gives a different view on voter behaviour but also explains how media support is a main factor.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2013/02/27/opinion/italy-cult-of-berlusconi-emmott/index.html

    The reasons why they vote for Berulosconi are

    He makes unbelievable promises

    He is irresponsible.

    His opponents are more statesmanlike and responsible.

    Only one party in the election really stood for change: the Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo.

    Oh, and did I forget to mention that Berlusconi owns Italy’s three main commercial TV channels and its biggest advertising sales agency, and has billions of euros in cash to hand around to supporters and allies?

  45. “@CraigEmersonMP: .@vanOnselenP Only those asylum seekers arriving by boat to be reported to police under Abbott Liberals? Or by air too? Or from camps too?”

  46. mari@86


    Thank you Lizzie comment 14 you are so right

    Actually lizzies post 14 is very strange indeed as, among other things, it links me with Mod Lib and rummel when in fact I frequently clash with the opinions both of them express, particularly Mod Lib.
    [This recalls to me the posts of Mod Lib, Rummel, Bemused, and several others I refuse to acknowledge.]
    So what on earth is lizzie referring to?
    Is it that I, along with several other Labor members/supporters can see the diabolical situation Gillard is in and that somehow is supposed to make us supporters of the other side?

    If so, then it is a totally dishonest proposition.

    How about an honest explanation lizzie?

  47. Scott Morrison is a great example of what happens to “moderate” Liberals when given a shadow ministry. Turnbull too. And let’s not forget the “moderate” Liberal premiers doing their best to screw over teachers, nurses and hell, even the police and construction workers! Or letting guns or fucking cattle into National Parks! Or banning civil unions!

    I think the last truly moderate Liberalis is that guy (Broadbent? Who really cares?) on the backbench who actually had the courage to meekly put his hand up and say how fucked up the Coalition have made the AS debate. Roundly ignored but his own party of course, but that’s “moderate” Liberals for you. Rarely seen, seldom heard, always ignored.

    However, the majority of my fellow Australians (who it turns out are a bunch of ignorant, racist dumbasses) ALSO agree with the hard right leadership of the Coalition in doing everything they can to make the most miserable people in the world (asylum seekers, not Labor supporters) even MORE miserable. It’s the Australian way apparently.

    This country is fucking buggered. It’s not the politicians’ fault either, the blame falls solely on the voting public. Nuke Western Sydney (to start with anyway) and we’d all be better off.

  49. [How about an honest explanation lizzie?]

    Simple bemused:

    You are evil because you are a realist.

    The realist is the enemy of the denialist.

  50. Toorak Toff@76


    I despair.

    Thats all you ever do.

    Nothing new or unusual about that.

    Many others though will see it all through and keep trying their best to win.

    But whining and crying is all we will ever hear from you multiple times most days. Day in day out.

    Fair weather friends are not what Labor needs, but you already know that.

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