GhostWhoVotes reports the first Nielsen for the year has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (down five) and 47% for the Coalition (up four) – we’ll have to wait on the Greens. Even worse news for Julia Gillard on personal ratings, with Tony Abbott seizing a 49-45 lead as preferred prime minister compared with 50-40 to Gillard last time, and she trails Kevin Rudd 61% to 35%. However, the latter result is very similar to Abbott’s 58-35 deficit against Malcolm Turnbull. Opinion is divided on whether the parties should actually do anything about it: 52% support Labor changing leaders and 45% don’t (up four and down three), with eerily similar numbers for the Liberals (51% to 46%).
We also had overnight a Galaxy poll of 800 women voters concerning voting intention and attitudes to the leaders. The voting intention figures were 36% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, for a two-party preferred lead to the Coalition of 53-47 – about where you would expect it be when allowing for a 55-45 poll trend, the size of the gender gap in recent years and perhaps a smidgin of house bias in favour of the Coalition on Galaxy’s part. When respondents were asked if they were concerned about Abbott saying “‘no’ to everything”, his views on abortion and “the way he treats women”, abortion recorded the lowest response rate among Labor voters and the highest among Coalition voters (albeit by slight margins in each case). The divide was still wider for the question of whether was Abbott was a misogynist, breaking 44-24 for among Labor voters and 9-69 against among Coalition voters for a total of 25-44. Thirteen per cent of respondents said they were less likely to vote for Gillard because she was unmarried and has no children, and the same number said they were more likely to vote for Abbott for the opposite reasons.
UPDATE (18/2/2013): Essential Research breaks the freefall with the Coalition two-party lead back down to 54-46 after a week at 55-45, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 9%. The poll also finds 56% approval and 22% disapproval for recent thought bubbles about development of northern Australia. Other questions relate drugs in sport, including the eye-opening finding that 52% would approve of a ban on sports betting.
4791 – oh no! The IPA have an occaisonal talking head and Article on the Drum – unlike the Union Movement/Get up/Econazis etc who never ever ever get a look in.
Given about 50% of the population currently vote Coalition and 2PP is 55% – the fact that the Coalition view point is so under represented on the Drum is a travesty – where’s the balance.
So, apart from the Drum? What about the Political Analysis Current Affairs Flagship programs like 7.30, Lateline and Insiders – do they reflect Australian Opinion? How is the consistent 3 lefties to one rightie on Insiders anything but bias before we look at the behaviour to wards the token rightie?
Laocoon
I get the feeling that many people do not understand the enormity of what the NBN will do to foxtel. Forget the newspapers. Murdoch makes all his money via pay tv. It was only recently that Granada program showed what dirty stuff was done behind the scenes to destroy a rival platform from ever getting off the ground in the UK .
@4793 – I don’t watch much Fox News but I do know that thay they are a Conservative View Point and a very succesful media organisation.
Crank
Go see the website. See the petitions. They are there for a reason. No matter how much you want to perpetuate the myth. With Social Media the bias is documented now.
Good to see you not defending Fox News which has become the Tea Party broadcasting channel
At least one good news story out of the US. Note that the hero is a homeless black man.
[A homeless man in Kansas City, Mo., made national headlines more than a week ago when he returned a valuable platinum and diamond engagement ring accidentally dropped into his cup of change by a woman offering some extra cash. Now, hundreds of donors have contributed more than $16,000 to a page on GiveForward.com to help Billy Ray Harris get his life back on track. The man’s rewards don’t stop with financial help — the media story helped him connect with a brother in Lubbock, Texas, he hasn’t seen in nearly 30 years.]
http://news.yahoo.com/homeless-man-honest-deed-rewarded-16k-donation-counting-172200491.html
Dark skinned, curly-haired boat people are raping Aussie girls
The latest from the bottom of the Ray Hadley cesspit is an alleged incident involving an innocent young female student at Macquarie University who resides in university accommodation at Marsfield, Sydney.
Unbeknownst to her (or apparently anyone else) the adjoining block of units has been reserved as temporary accommodation for Sri Lankan boat people.
When lustful darkies see sweet Aussie girls there is only one possible outcome: rape.
The girl found herself being the victim of a “serious sexual assault” two nights ago at 3am.
Hadley lasciviously read out the description of the man as “clothed only in track suit pants, no top, with dark skin and black curly hair.”
He put on his best glowering, “outraged” voice as he read out the police report, and has called for sexually perverted boat people to be banned from being placed anywhere near young Aussie females, as the result should be obvious to all.
Callers have been ringing in telling of previous outrages of perving, sexual taunting and other lewd behaviour from Christmas Island to Melbourne and place in-between by these darkies who cannot control their animal urges, all of them less than human deviates that come here only to molest Aussie girls.
It goes without saying that they are only here because of the Gillard government’s total incompetence.
So there.
This incident is now the lead item on 2GB Radio News, and the compliant cops are pulling out all the stops to find the culprit.
The outraged callers continue to phone in.
[@4793 – I don’t watch much Fox News but I do know that thay they are a Conservative View Point and a very succesful media organisation.
]
Fair point.
Big of you to admit the ‘conservative view point’ is essentially fiction and fantasy shown to leave you dumber after watching. If there is either an intelligent or ethical conservative left they would be distancing themselves from fox as far as possible.
@4803 – guytaur – your derision is palpable – if they are so far right then why are they so succesful? Obama just got relected, right? Why do they crap all over CNN, MNBC, CBS etc?
Commercial Media is an entertainment business. Know your client – know your product.
lizzie #4778 re Grattan – the lack of response is just a reflection of the regard in which she is held. Aside from speculating what the editorial board at The Conversation were smoking when they took Grattan on, you have to wonder how long they’ll stick with their decision given the deserved wall-to-wall kicking every vacuous “article” she’s written gets in the comments.
CC
The Karl Rove reaction to reality intruding on fantasy land of the US election has become viral.
Fantasy is big box office and ratings. See Lord of the Rings. Harry Potter, The Hobbit etc.
CC
You want to see left wing media. Get a copy of GreenLeft Weekly.
@4806 – so the Left – both media and Politicians tell the truth, the full truth and never spin, never distort – they have a pure message that is never wrong or inconsistent.
You guys really don’t give voters much credit for an ability to interpret or understand. I suppose that’s what attracts you to Unions and the Greens.
“@sortius: I wonder how long it’ll be before Mal deletes his tweet denigrating my blog. So much for being a “true statesman” #NBN”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2013/feb/21/dirty-fossil-fuel-exports-australia?CMP=twt_fd
[Australia’s most emissions-intensive power plants are fueled by brown coal. In theory the much-lauded carbon price should hit the dirtiest power generators the hardest.
But new analysis this week suggests that, so far, the carbon price hasn’t so much hit them hard as provided billion dollar bonus cheques.
A report commissioned by not-for-profit group Environment Victoria has found, in the first six months of the scheme, the Victorian power firms passed on to customers more than 100% of the carbon price.]
Compact Crank
[@4803 – guytaur – your derision is palpable…]
Don’t blame guytaur, you are a doing a fine job yourself and becoming more moronic by the minute.
[…if they are so far right then why are they so succesful?]
Evidently your brain is using the expressway to your mouth and bypassing thought.
CC, the private opinions of employees and the public face of their employer are two different things.
CC
Your problem is you live in fantasy land so much you will be like Karl Rove. Becoming unhinged when reality bites
laocoon #4717
Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he. I wonder whether the arrogance (or is it delusion?) is an attempt to cover up the fact that Failfax is really seriously worried that the Oz Grauniad is about to stomp all over their readership base, and may well be the thing that finally pushes them under for good. I’m slightly optimistic the Grandad will do a half decent job, but the appointment of Lenore Taylor to a prize role is a bother.
@4809 – I’m not sure what you are referring to about Karl Rove. Is it any different to the current ALP saying they can win in September from the current position. “There is only one poll that counts yada yada yada . . .” Is Richo really completely wrong and has no merit – I mean – what would he know? He’s a complete novice and partisan Coalition hack . . oh . . .
Labor may well say the glass is half full rather than half empty and some will call that spin. The conservative view point as you described it says there are two containers and they are made of tin. Yet you abuse us. And yes the viewers of the conservative view point are stupid and get stupider every day they accept each new lie.
You can’t really compare fiction with putting a set of facts in the best possible way. We you can but it would be more of the conservative view point.
Damn Gaytaur@4670
On your recommendation (usually good) I read the Waleed Aly crap.
I’m sorry. A person commenting on the carbon price and cannot or pretends not to know the difference between a tax and an ETS is either stupid or partisan.
And then to claim the she broke promise is strictly partisan/groupthink/stupid http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillards-carbon-price-promise/story-fn59niix-1225907522983
As for the bloody narrative, one can go to the various political parties’ websites for motherhood statements. And I think they mean jack, it’s the policies that are real.
And I’m jealous – Aly gets paid money to reword the same crap over. His day is done 10minutes after it began.
fractious
I get your point, but I try to be fair.
After all, when you’re training a dog, you reward correct behaviours. You don’t abandon them in a bare paddock and expect them to learn by themselves 🙂
It strikes me that most of what Compact Crank (and others) are saying is based on opinion pieces in newspapers that give the appearance of universal agreement over the coming sad fate of the Gillard government.
It’s a classic bootstrap operation.
Take a poll. ONE poll.
Amplify it in isolation from other polls. Discount any possibility of the polls improving. Dismiss better polls from the past that show opinion moves in cycles, up and down.
Write up the poll as a harbinger of doom for the government.
Write up the write-ups.
Write-up the write-ups of write-ups. Form a conga line of journalists, opinionistas, amateurs on the sidelines and social commentators. Get them to write their own pieces on the subject, mostly gloomy.
Find some Labor rats who are prepared to diss their erstwhile colleagues. Get them make some wild predictions along the lines of “the nummbers are being counted”.
Then, when nothing happens, when life goes on, beg Gillard to resign.
See the not-so-subtle change? They’ve gone from confident, if disposable, predictions of a proactive Rudd, to imploring Gillard to go, to putting up alternative contestants… all in the space of five days.
Nothing is happening. Nothing was EVER happening. Nothing is GOING to happen, except more talk.
The only other poll covering the same scenario, Essential, improved slightly for the government.
There is a Newspoll to come. It hasn’t been published or even conducted yet, yet Newspoll “futures” are universally discussed as certainly bad for the government.
This is a newish development: discussion of poll results that haven’t even been collected yet.
C/C and his pals have a vested interest in spreading despair and misery among Labor supporters. They discuss the word storm of the past few days as if it describes something real.
In fact, it’s a dozen, maybe twenty commentators who work for organizations themseves barely solvent, crippled with debt, shedding staff by the thousands, keeping out-of-date time-servers in highly paid sinecures, who have the cheek to advise a government on HR and management matters.
They should look to their own tired business models and fix those before they offer free advice to anyone else.
Get the joke?
There are no numbers. There is no challenge. There is no “3rd Candidate”. There is no crisis.
There is only the appearance of these for those too tired to think for themselves about the logic, much less the reality.
It’s either the last, or close to the last throw of the dice for the media. Where once revered ikons strutted the national punditry stage, we have obtuse second-stringers (e.g Hartcher), ring-ins (e.g. Mark Kenny), colour writers (e.g. Alan Stokes), amateurs (e.g. Eva Cox), has-beens (e.g Grattan) and traitorous rats (e.g. Richo) trying to keep the organizations they work for viable, their heads above water, for the few months they deem necessary to get rid of the government.
They have invented crises, gaffes and catastrophes that are only deemed as such because they missed them all, and don’t know anything more than just about any member of the public.
The only thing we need to know about any of this is that empty vessels make the most noise.
@4816 – you beleive that an experienced political and media operator like Karl Rove didn’t know the difference between the reality of what the polling was telling everyone and the message he was trying to sell?
Exactly how am I in Fantasy Land? This’ll be good.
lizzie
re Grattan, something something old dog something tricks 😉
CC
It was broadcast live. Not a question of belief. Its there on youtube.
So entertaining Rachel Maddow showed it.
@4822 – “There is no challenge”
I’m sure I heard a Cabinet Minister utter that line or similar heading into Parliament House on the evening of 23 June 2010.
Denials all round – nothin happening – never going to happen.
I’m suprised Julia hasn’t run out for the Bulldogs yet – another couple of nab Cup rounds to go yet, though.
CC
I see you are proving BB’s point.
[I’m sure I heard a Cabinet Minister utter that line or similar heading into Parliament House on the evening of 23 June 2010.]
You can’t take one single instance of the media fluking it, matched against thousands of wrong predictions and base a theory around it.
It’s illogical and unscientific.
There is no challenge, C/C.
Futureproof Auatralia.
Vote 0 Abbott
Tailgator @Tailgator1
@TurnbullMalcolm Will you refuse to have fibre optic connected to your electoral office? http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/ultrafast-deal-for-all-federal-mps-20130219-2epm3.html … No-one needs it. @sortius
Retweeted by sortius
fractious
🙂
Still think it’s worth reading for her analysis of Greens position. I mean, it’s fair enough, we do need to know their new position!
@Colvinius: “@RollingStone: Exclusively listen to Jimi Hendrix’s experimental lost track “Hear My Train a-Comin'”: http://t.co/3Dno0woP42” @woblord
The Hadley “Boat People are rapists” beat-up has reached the SMH:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sex-assault-on-campus-resident-asylum-seekers-to-be-questioned-20130222-2evgl.html
@4830 – that is a completely stupid line of argument. it’s like those that argue becasue an Oppostion opposes the Government then an Opposition Memeber should never lobby on behalf of their constituents to get any benefit from a Governemnt Policy.
I disagree with the baby bonus as a policy but happily took the money, twice. What was I supposed to do? Send it back?
BB
Hadley has not thought much. The big story of today hits at 1:30.
Celebrity Swim stars behaving badly and should taxpayers pay for that.
Compact Crank
[…if they are so far right then why are they so succesful? Obama just got relected, right? Why do they crap all over CNN, MNBC, CBS etc?]
Fox News ranges from plain right to far right. Obama won, but half the country is still Republican. That’s a huge audience available to them. And they probably crap all over any specific other network simply because they don’t have a rival in their space, whereas CNN etc. are competing with each other.
[Of course the ALP has lost its way. The ALP members turn the wrong way at the House of Reps door, and sit on the government benches.]
Love it! I hope history writes up the ‘biggest dummy spit of all time’ exactly as it’s happened.
Jenauthor is talking of writing a book about the media’s role over the past few years. Should be a corker.
@MayneReport: Australian Local Govt Assoc’n board just passed a motion related to Julia Gillard’s promised Sept 14 referendum. See: http://t.co/TDp0Be4APC
If you want some points of argument against Coalition broadband policy:
[fiz @fiztig
Finally, a solid analysis of Turnbull’s #NBN. “The vast differences between the NBN and the LNP alternative” http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2013/02/21/3695094.htm … @abctech ]
@4828 – I’m not saying there is a challenge ojn at the moment, and neither is the media.
That said, you can’t beleive that given the state of the polling and the nature of the ALP they aren’t discussing it. It’s in their DNA to be war gaming options, doing a desk audit of numbers, working out best case and worst case scenarios – that what’s these guys and gals live for. They start it in student politics, continue it in the Unions and ALP Branches and then once they hit the big time in a Fed or State MP’s Office as either Staff or the MHR it is one of the primal reasons they are there – they love it.
RBA flags no change to interest rates. So not ten rises leading up to an election campaign.
@AP_Politics: GOP senators are treading carefully with tea party: http://t.co/O2KC98Lkk5
Take note Mr Abbot regarding Bernadi and his like.
triton since the November election FoxNews has sacked Karl Rove and Dick Morris – 2 of the biggest RW nutters they had. I find that interesting.
Apparently the ratings have fallen in a hole as well.
Agreed Bushfire Bill. It is classic bootstrap stuff. One poll. ONE POLL. And such hysteria.
It beggars belief.
“@latikambourke: Chessell Review ‘Chinese economic growth was underestimated on average by 2½ percentage points per annum over the period 2003 and 2007.’”
“@latikambourke: Chessell Review ‘Treasury also overestimated the speed at which global mining production would respond to the rise in mining output prices.’”
“@latikambourke: Chessell Review: Treasury misjudged the effects of ‘infrastructure bottlenecks’ and the nat disasters on export volumes in 04/08.”
“@InsidersABC: #Insiders Sunday 9am: Barrie Cassidy interviews @AdamBandt + panel @JacquelineMaley @dwabriz and Gerard Henderson @abcnews @ABCNews24”
I think Nugent has lost his job.
@abcgrandstand: Silver medalist Emily Seebohm reveals she personally told head coach Leigh Nugent about misbehaviour in London: http://t.co/SbOo7vr2jA
[Hadley has not thought much. The big story of today hits at 1:30.
Celebrity Swim stars behaving badly and should taxpayers pay for that.]
I wish I knew how to search this database, because then I’d find my prediction that the Games were going to be a crock.
The amount of spin and peripheral stuff in the lead-up to the commencement of competition made it obvious that sport has taken second place to rort.
These were supposed to have been the Randy Games. Remember the prediction that once their events were over all the young lads and lasses would be bonking each other stupid?
It was so happy and spontaneous… the bullshit spinners told us so.
There was bragging about endorsement deals. There were arrogant bank commercials that had gold medals in the bag before anyone even got into the pool.
Now we find that the whole thing was leaderless and dysfunctional.
It’s almost the exact opposite of what’s going on in politics.
In sport they created a chimera of “Team spirit” where the real situation was bullying, elitism, bragadocio and greed. The public bought it, hence the shock when reality took over from Reality TV.
In politics it’s all “chaos”and “dysfunction”. Caucus members are counting numbers etc. “Fear and loathing” predominate.
In fact there is no counting, and there are no numbers. Rudd will never come back and there is no challenger ready to step up.
The government’s poll ratings started to go up last year when the Olympic bubble burst. I’d like to think it was because the public woke up – even if briefly – to the way spin and bullshit are used to warp their perceptions.
They can and will wake up again.
CC
“@4758 – unfortunatel it is only a half Senate Election in Sep so the answer is “highly unlikely”
Now if the ALP decide to go from the current position of losing all the furniture in the lead up to September to a position of burning their own house down post election by bringing on a DD Election by opposing repeal of the Carbon Tax then I think it is “highly likely”.
If Abbott ever gets to the point of calling a DD, he will have caused so much damage to country he will lose government!.