Election day: September 14

Regardless of her motivations, the Prime Minister has done us all a good turn by advising well in advance of her plans to hold the election on September 14.

The Prime Minister has performed us all the service of advising well in advance that she will call the federal election for September 14, to be formally initiated by a visit to the Governor-General and the issue of the writs on August 12 (remember where you heard it first). Professional strainers for things to say have criticised the move, but not on any reasonable basis that I can see (the rather esoteric concern of the date coinciding with Yom Kippur aside). It’s a bit trite to complain of a decision about election timing being driven by political considerations, which will self-evidently be the case wherever politicians are given discretion over the matter. The salient point is that the public and the political system at large have gone from not knowing something important to knowing it, which can only be a good thing. Antony Green (see video embed at 2:47pm) has more, including the observation that the practice of ambushing the opposition with an announcement five weeks out from the date is a modern development, and a very obviously unhelpful one at that.

Some recent political odds and ends:

• Labor’s national executive has confirmed the endorsement of Nova Peris, who became the first Australian Aboriginal to win an Olympic gold medal as a representative of the women’s hockey team in 1996, as its Northern Territory Senate candidate. Peris’s endorsement occurred at the initiative of the Prime Minister, who was seen to be reacting against the party’s record of failure in securing Aboriginal representation in the federal parliament, and the backlash against Labor in remote areas at last August’s Northern Territory election and the presumed threat to the corresponding federal seat of Lingiari. Local preselection processes were contentiously overridden in seeing off the incumbent of 16 years, Trish Crossin, who had been a supporter of Kevin Rudd’s bid to return to the leadership. Vocal critics of the move included two former Labor Deputy Chief Ministers, Marion Scrymgour and Syd Stirling, along with Senator and Left faction powerbroker Doug Cameron. Scrymgour nominated for the national executive vote along with another former Territory minister in Karl Hampton, who was among those to lose his seat at last year’s election. It was was reported that “at least two” of the 24-member national executive voted against the Prime Minister’s wishes.

• Robert McClelland has announced he will bow out at the federal election after 17 years as member for the Sydney seat of Barton, which Labor holds on a margin of 7.7%. Another backer of Kevin Rudd, McClelland served as Attorney-General from the government’s election in 2007 until his demotion to emergency management in 2011, and was dropped altogether last March in the wake of Rudd’s failed leadership bid. He was seen to have undermined Julia Gillard last June by making an oblique reference in parliament to the AWU affair, which was invoked as validating the subsequent blizzard of news reports into various details of the matter. McClelland’s most widely discussed potential successor as Labor candidate is Morris Iemma, who succeeded Bob Carr as NSW Premier in August 2005, led his party to victory at the 2007 election, and was deposed in September 2008 in a move which doesn’t seem as clever now as it apparently did at the time. Reports have quoted sources saying Iemma is “likely” to put his name forward. Others mentioned have been Shane O’Brien, mayor of Rockdale and official with the Public Service Association of NSW, and Kirsten Andrews, a former staffer who now works with the National Heart Foundation.

• Paul Henderson, who led Labor to defeat in last year’s Northern Territory election, has announced he is bowing out of parliament. This will cause a by-election to be held on February 16 for his northern Darwin seat of Wanguri, where his margin was clipped from 14.4% to 7.0% last August. Labor has preselected Nicole Manison, a former Henderson government media adviser who had backing from both Henderson and his successor as Labor leader, Delia Lawrie. The Country Liberal Party has again endorsed its candidate from last year, Rhianna Harker, a former president of the Young CLP.

UPDATE: Morgan has published a result from its face-to-face polling of the past two weekends, which has Labor down half a point to 36%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 39% and the Greens up 1.5% to 12%. This pans out to a 50.5-49.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, and 50.5-49.5 to Labor when preferences are allocated as per the result of the last election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,768 comments on “Election day: September 14”

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  1. Haydn

    and “getting the incumbency/authority thing” is just what Abbott is incapable of.

    He has a bunch of walking stiffs on his front bench and his failure to get rid of this dead wood is that he “lacks’ authority.

    Do me a favour. Such a ‘strong’ leader but can’t decide who he would really like to have with on in an election.

    No comment from the OM media about this of course as the media ownership is intent on regime change.

  3. muttleymcgee@3648


    The only ‘shock’ was the OM catching up. All of this has been planned for nearly a year.

    Ahhh so the PM consulted with you 12 months ago and you gave the go ahead?
    A true legend…in your own mind at least.

  4. I wonder why William you had to start this thread with, “regardless of her motivations”? This is symptomatic of the tendency of the media to spin everything Gillard does as a negative. Why not just say she has announced the date?

  5. Psephos

    You don’t stop listening to, or watch, what you opponents have to say.

    The point about the OM – print or otherwise, is that for many in the electorate this is its source of ‘news’.

    Most of the savvy are well beyond these sources now.

    Just because your opponent treats news as a political agenda does not mean it can be ignored for the impact it has on those less able/willing to dig a bit deeper.

    My only saving grace is that, by and large, journalists – as a group – are seen as totally untrustworthy and their employers not be be believed either.

    Every day that passes their lack of depth and balance puts them further into the “What a load of cobblers” basket.

    No wonder some of the more thoughtful ones get out.

  6. Pyne was truly pathetic today. They cant let anything happen without criticising. Do voters really want these truly nasty people in charge?

    And where are those texts Murphy was going on and on about last year?

  9. Just heard Christopher Pyne on Newsradio. I hope he gets equal time. Or more. The more we hear of Pyne, Abetz, Mirrabella et al, the more I like it!

  11. [It reminds me of skit of the two old characters that sat in the opera balcony in the Muppets. Starting off saying the performance was rubbish and finally ending the discussion saying it was actually magnificant and shouting out “Bravo, bravo!”]

    Georgie – that’s one for George Bludger to work on. That is so appropriate.

  12. Pyne subtley having a crack at Roxon for retiring because she “has one child… Well, I have 4″

    But Roxon’s child is disadvantaged by her spending time away.

  14. Once upon a time . . .

    We would have believed our trusted journalists’ descriptions of a PM’s press conference.

    Not any more.

    We watched it, courtesy of www and 24/7 coverage.

    We now know the Press Gallery to be totally absorbed in their own biases in reporting reality, and would rather concentrate on conflict/colour/movement.

    It was nothing of the sort.

    So, once upon a time, we would have believed the PM to be consumed by grief at the announcement of the retirement of two ministers. Indeed, the accompanying photos would have confirmed it.

    BUT, we now know the reality. Those ministers resigned for personal reasons AND for the good of the party – not to the detriment of the party as the Press Gallery is trying its hardest to report.

    And just as an aside, while not wanting to point the finger at anyone in particular, Jessica Wright claims subby interference in her article.

    That she is not responsible for the headline. Okay. But she also claims she is not responsible for “massaged” intro.

    Let’s be clear here.

    Subbies are not responsible for a massaged intro, the EDITOR is.

    Wright is being dishonest; she would rather let consumers think that subbies are always to blame. They’re not. It’s the ultimate responsibility of the EDITOR about any intro, massaged or not.

    That’s a FACT CHECK.

  16. confessions
    Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 11:34 am | Permalink

    JG looked for a fleeting minute as if she wanted to clobber Phil Coorey for his disrespectful question.

    She should have had Plibersek, that other member of the Handbag Hit Squad, with her. She’s often had that look and seemed as if she’s ready to clobber. She’s got the height and shoulders to do it, too.

  18. [ OK, hands up if you would like to see Roxon punch Pyne’s lights out over that disgusting remark? ]

    Yes, Bob,

    As a trained, erm, Army person – courtesy of Malcolm Fraser and the Vietnam War, plus conscription, I can say only this:

    As a man of peace, I say … stick something quite large, maybe a pineapple, rough end first, with bamboo skewers, up his business end.

    Demeanour here is necessary. Do not, under any circumstance, allow him to enjoy himself.

  19. [JG looked for a fleeting minute as if she wanted to clobber Phil Coorey for his disrespectful question.]
    But she still gave the last question to him; shows how much she fears him (i.e. approximately not at all…)

  20. Just spoke to my Mum, she was reading out the newspaper headlines to my Dad about the Govt in chaos and how PMJG was in tears. They were swallowing the BS hook line and sinker. I can’t describe how furious I am with the media, how dare they play games and mislead my parents.

  21. thirdborn #3670 – be at peace. Most of the people in the room will be unemployed at years end. PMJG will not.

    They will reap what they have sowed and none will weep for them.

  22. [ Subbies are not responsible for a massaged intro, the EDITOR is. ]

    Kezza,

    Correct. Trouble is that true editors, as a species, are extinct.

  23. Fran Barlow
    Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

    One way that PMJG could exploit the “equal time” meme is to insist, in the interest of “fairness, balance and full disclosure” that every time a detailed ALP policy is discussed, that the corresponding LNP policy is examined, with identical criteria and in the same detail.

    It’s only fair isn’t it? How else are people to help make an informed choice about the direction of the country?

    Fran, the PM could always adopt the King of Id’s method, which would seem singularly suitable for the OM here.

    At a policy press briefing, the King said,
    “After this announcement, there will be a question and answer session.”
    [Much applause from the assembled reporters] and the King went on:
    “If you fail to answer my questions correctly, I will deliver the whole announcement again.”

  24. FACT CHECK #2

    The only time an EDITOR has free rein is when the Editor is also the PUBLISHER.

    Otherwise, the PUBLISHER dictates the SLANT of the Editorial.

    The publisher appoints the editor.

    Anyone who can’t get their head round this is GULLIBLE.

    In other words, what’s the point of owning/publishing a news outlet other than to dictate one’s point of view?

    There’s none.

    And there’s lots of freebies to be had if one desires to be accommodated and/or influenced by advertisers/big end of townists.

    It takes a lot of integrity to run a news outlet.

    Given Rupert Murdoch’s extensive dossiers of any country’s leaders, it takes a mammothly strong leader to resist his alleged compromising photos (see Michael Wolff’s testimony) and constant negative reporting.

    Our Prime Minister Julia Gillard is ONE such person to stand up to this publisher/editor’s alleged totally unscrupulous manner in conducting business – WHILE IN POWER.

    Tom Watson, of Labour in England, is doing the same. But doing it from Opposition. Big difference to taking Rupert on while you’re in power.

    It stands to reason they’re able to do this because they have NEVER sold their souls to the devil.

    Rudd was a cleanskin too, until he became embroiled with a US acolyte of Murdoch. He can never return because Murdoch soiled him. Rudd knows that.

  25. Guytaur.. thanks for the link to the Dreyfus interview with Lyndal Curtis. He was a great choice. A very calm and considered fellow with lucid authority.

  26. One of the things the Mordor Press want is impunity for racial vilification. Yes, I can see Dreyfus QC backing freedom for holocaust deniers … ! Not.

  28. Surely whether or not the government is ‘unstable’ or ‘in chaos’ depends on how well they manage the transition (and that doesn’t mean w.r.t. to the media, but rather w.r.t. the governments proper functioning) and not on simply having a transition.

    Transitions like this may be an indicator of potential trouble, but any determination of actual trouble has to wait until the governments performance (again, not w.r.t to the media) is measured.

    Our media always seem to take an extremely shallow, facile approach to everything they do. They see the government’s actions as a dialogue with them with messages to them that need to be deciphered.

  29. [Guytaur.. thanks for the link to the Dreyfus interview with Lyndal Curtis. He was a great choice. A very calm and considered fellow with lucid authority.]
    Gecko
    Just like George Brandis SC DH!

  30. [ I can’t describe how furious I am with the media, how dare they play games and mislead my parents. ]

    Thirdborn,

    Be calm. Was it Kipling who wrote something like:

    When all around
    are losing their heads,
    Be calm, my son …

  31. Kezza

    [Rudd was a cleanskin too, until he became embroiled with a US acolyte of Murdoch. He can never return because Murdoch soiled him. Rudd knows that.]

  32. BK, yes its a pretty big contrast alright . Brandis while actually quite clever is too clever for his own good and not as clever as he thinks, Dreyfus is ckeverer than he claims to be.

  34. PKJG sheds a tear…from affection, pride and gratitude. She is flesh and blood. At the very heart of the government, there are real hearts and deep friendships as well as power. This is very very real. It is not contrivance or dress-up.

    But none of this signifies “disarray” any more than JG’s misogyny speech signified “panic”.

    The bonds between the PM and the public are found in our emotional interiors. We respected her grief. We shared and even admired the anger she showed the LOTO in Parliament, and we understand what it is to part from trusted friends too.

    Everyone in this country knows exactly what it is the PM has had to endure and they think the better of her for having done so. This is one more layer of meaning to add to the understanding the public has of the PM. It is anything but harmful.

  37. ‘the tendency of the media to spin everything Gillard does as a negative’

    Which will continue as long as the ALP allows it to go unchallenged.

    As long as the government’s senior ministers go out day after day and let the media kick sand in their faces and treat them like shit nothing will change.
    By polling day we’ll still be talking about those tewibly naughty boys and girls in the meeja.

    Piss weak. The government is piss weak to let it continue.
    Unless of course we’re all imagining it?

  39. ‘How even the right-wing droogs here can countenance this utter misrepresentation of the news, I don’t know.’

    How the ALP allow it to go on without so much as a wimper is the real question.

  41. b
    [Ahhh so the PM consulted with you 12 months ago and you gave the go ahead?
    A true legend…in your own mind at least.]

    Had you been paying attention and not mouthing your mindless pap you would have heard PMJG say that this was discussed last year.

    There’s a wonderful career waiting at News Ltd for you if they ever need any more ….. O wait!

  43. According to twitter, apparently Pyne when asked about Brough etc. said something about Brough appealing the decision. Can anyone clarify?

  44. victoria

    Rudd went to Score’s nightclub with Col Allan, Editor of the New York Post, a Murdoch-owned newspaper.

    Of course, Rudd, the non-drinker, had too much to drink, couldn’t remember much, and was allegedly photographed in a compromising situation (according to Michael Wolff) – detailed in a very apologetic phone call to his wife the following morning.

    Rudd knew then his goose was cooked. Rupert had him by the short and curlies.

    Rupert’s news outlets in Australia reported him as a Man’s man – don’t let the little woman get uppity about a lapse of morality. He’s a fkn hero. Do you remember?

    And lots of bloke’s blokes to say how much they loved him for being unfaithful to his wife.

    And we wonder why Rudd was so amenable to Rupert (Australia News, etc).

    Join the dots.

  45. For example

    [Anyone saw Pyne today evade and run away from Brough questions in presser? Pyne now claims Brough is appealing #ROFL #auspol]

    [Brough is not appealing, in any sense of the word… @geeksrulz Pyne now claims Brough is appealing #ROFL #auspol]

  46. Kezza2

    I must be naive. I thought Rudd had apologised to his wife for actually going to the night club and having a few drinks. Did not know he got it on with someone!

  47. victoria@3696


    Kezza2

    I must be naive. I thought Rudd had apologised to his wife for actually going to the night club and having a few drinks. Did not know he got it on with someone!

    I have never heard it alleged.
    But no slur on Rudd is too much for some.

  49. Psephos:

    [I have not owned a TV for five years, I have not bought a newspaper since I came back from Europe in November, and I don’t even listen to ABC radio much any more.]

    I tried an experiment late last year. Instead of listening to ABC in the morning on the way to work, I’d either turn the radio off or listen to 2WS-FM, which talks mindless crap in between ads and 1970s music.

    I’d then measure my BP on arrival at school and even after period 1 — at least an hour later.

    On average, my systolic pressure was 20% higher on arrival on days when I listened to Fran Kelly and Michelle Grattan than with either 2WS or the radio off. Interestingly, it was still an average of 15% above after period 1. NB: on 4/5 days in my weekly timetable, I was not in front of classes period 1.

    My conclusion is that Fran Kelly’s Breakfast is bad for my health. The strange thing is that I find myself drawn to listening to it — just as people who know they shouldn’t rubberneck at road accidents find themselves doing it anyway.

    I don;t smoke, so perhaps this is my compulsion. Perhaps Kelly should come in plain pack, but I can’t imagine anything plainer on the radio than her and Grattan*.

    * NB … this is not a swing at their appearances, but their voices and register — both of which are deeply irritating.

  50. The one saving grace about the media is that 95% of Oz, at any one time, is not really paying any real attention.

    Owners of newspapers et al are free to say, within the law, what they like in a democracy.

    However, this does mean that those who are not willing to accept their version of things should constantly go on the attack.

    If owners shape their news outlets to ensure their story is told – fine – but they are fully open to attack of bias and slanted presentation.

    No excuses.

    I used to be a bit forgiving once, but not any more.

    The Oz – 128,000 daily sales. Poorly supported and only read (mainly) by the rusted ons on the right.

    The Herald-Sun – Down to just over 500K in a readership area of what, 4 million people?

    The West Australian – 180,000 in a city with a million and a half people. At the weekend, it is bought for the TV mag and the supplements.

    Long may their sales continue to fall and their influence lessen still further.

    The souring part is that the ABC is so weak it follows the pack.

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