Bruce covers suburbs in eastern Melbourne from Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill south to Springvale (home to substantial Vietnamese and Chinese communities) and Dandenong. The Monash Freeway bisects the electorate from north-west to south-east, serving as a rough divider between a strongly Labor-voting south and a broadly marginal north with pockets of strong Liberal support around Wheelers Hill. The redistribution has added around 7500 voters from those parts of Glen Waverley who were previously in Chisholm, which has garnished Labor’s margin from 8.1% to 7.7%.
Bruce was created in 1955 but has been substantially altered over time by redistribution, its original boundaries extending far beyond the city limits to Cranbourne in the east and Berwick in the south. Suburban expansion soon caused it to be drawn into its long-term base of Glen Waverley, and it assumed roughly its current dimensions when it acquired Labor-voting Noble Park and Dandenong North in 1996. This proved a watershed moment electorally, as the Liberals had previously held the seat without interruption and Labor has done so since.
The inaugural member for the seat was Billy Snedden, who went on to lead the Coalition in opposition from the wake of the 1972 election defeat until he was deposed by Malcolm Fraser in March 1975, and then to serve as Speaker throughout the period of the Fraser government. Snedden retired following the 1983 election defeat and was succeeded at the ensuing by-election by Kenneth Aldred, who had held the since-abolished eastern suburbs seat of Henty for the Liberals from 1975 until his defeat in 1980. In 1990 Aldred was defeated for Liberal preselection by Julian Beale, whose seat of Deakin had been made notionally Labor by a redistribution. Aldred then ran for Deakin himself, and managed to retain the seat on the back of a statewide backlash against Labor.
The 1996 redistribution gave Bruce a notional Labor margin of 1.6%, which Beale had to overcome if he was to retain his seat. In the event he could manage only 0.8%, a rare disappointment for the Liberals in the context of that election. The winning Labor candidate was Alan Griffin, who had previously held the abolished seat of Corinella. Bruce has since swung substantially according to the prevailing political winds, but has nonetheless remained fairly secure for Labor, the narrowest margin after 1996 being 3.5% in 2004.
A noted figure of influence in the Socialist Left faction, Griffin served as Veterans Affairs Minister in the first term of the Rudd-Gillard government before standing aside after the 2010 election. Griffin cited personal reasons for this decision, but he would soon emerge as a numbers man for Kevin Rudd’s leadership aspirations. Griffin announced he would not seek re-election in August 2011, before changing his mind in July 2012. He had earlier been fortunate to survive a preselection challenge for the 2007 election by Matt Carrick of the Right, who was reportedly thwarted by a single Transport Workers Union delegate who split from his faction’s line out of animus towards Carrick’s backers in the National Union of Workers.
The Liberals have endorsed Emanuele Cicchiello, Knox councillor and deputy principal of Lighthouse Christian College.
Scarpat@1947
I neither know nor care.
The obvious point I was making is that some appear to only be able to see any minor criticism of the PM or first bloke through the prism of ‘Ruddstoration’, whatever that is.
Sinodinos said, after he left Howard, that 2/3rds of Howard’s day was taken up in monitoring the media.
It is Sinodinos’s polite way of saying that Howard is a slow reader…
The obvious point I was making is that some appear to only be able to see any minor criticism of the PM or first bloke through the prism of ‘Ruddstoration’, whatever that is.
The obvious point I was making is that Ruddrestorers don’t do humour…
Who mentioned Rudd? wtf-erret has he got to do with it?
Puff,
absolutely nothing.
[Who mentioned Rudd?]
Who do you think?
BH @# 1940
I have reach that time in life where I do not give a FF what other people think of my views. I know value, aptitude and skill when I see it and those Asian dentists have these qualitys in spades.
If small minds want to be poked and prodded and stretched by fingers the size of gum trees they are welcome to it. For my part it is small Asian lady dentists every time.
As for the reptiles of the press – I think they should be classified as a noxious pest and neutered so they cannot breed.
Bemused @# 1944
The word that comes to mind to describe your post #1944 is bullshit.
I am white male and old and I do not object to being described as such. Why anyone would object to be called small Asian female is beyond me. In fact in this day and age it appears to me to be a complement considering the qualities that small Asian females appear to bring to any table. They are smart, skilled, hard working and pleasant. If I was employing I would be discriminating in their favor.
I have gone from a Rudd supporter in the early days to a “If I never hear that name again it will be a day too soon”, just from the circular never-ending ferreting arguments about it on PB. 😡
[As for the reptiles of the press – I think they should be classified as a noxious pest and neutered so they cannot breed.]
Post of the Month. 😆
I think Tim has been a lot smarter than anyone realises. He told a very old joke that everyone has heard before, it gets national coverage, he apologises and it keeps on getting talked about. If he had not made the joke no-one would have been aware of the event he spoke at or its purpose or his interest in promoting men’s health. As a result of all the hoo-haa a few blokes might decide it’s time to get that check-up they’ve been putting off for ages. A few women might decide to drag their men off to the doctor. Maybe a life or two will eventually be saved. That’s all good stuff. Gaffe? I don’t think so.
Not to worry.
The whole Tim issue will be old news in a couple of hours once the national exec. decision re Nova is finalised and the losing candidates “have their say. ”
The caravan then moves on.
Puff, the Magic Dragon. @# 1959
I have gone from a Rudd supporter in the early days to a “If I never hear that name again it will be a day too soon
Amen Brother
Doyley
What do you think Trish Crossin will say? She is due to have a presser at 2pm NT time
Scarpat@1953
Perhaps the ranting and raving just gets tedious….
confessions@1956
victoria
What do you think Trish Crossin will say? She is due to have a presser at 2pm NT time
If she has any sense she will say she is disappointed but that she accepts the decision.
Anything else will only show that she is more interest in herself and that she has no interest in the ALP or the people of the NT
I think Tim is probably one the most envied men in the land. If anyone from the backblocks ever landed a better gig, I dunno who it was. If he says it is okay to go and find an Asian female doc with skinny hands to do ya bum-check, then yeah, a bloke might not feel bad about giving Dr McBigThumb the flick for once and getting a check-up by that Asian chick who does clinic on Satdee mornings.
Ratsars
Bloody well hope she does have some sense
victoria @1964,
In all honesty I have no idea.
I am sure there have been factional discussions going on behind the scenes and words spoken between Ms Crossin and several party members during the last week so it will be interesting.
How she responds well could be a litmus test as to how united the party is at the beginning of this election year.
There are other candidates as well so I think it is a case of hold onto your hat and see what happens.
Simon Cullen @Simon_Cullen
Labor’s national executive has formally endorsed Nova Peris as the party’s top Senate candidate for the NT
Nova Peris press conference on now.
Ratsars – hop over to this link and leave your post re the dentist. Bernard Keane had his knickers in a knot about Tim this morning as did the woman who wrote this article.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2013/01/29/stick-your-racist-sexist-bullshit-up-your-arse-tim/
Doyley
If the presser is 2pm NT time. Presser wont be for another 90 minutes
Peris has a Larrakeyah elder with her who is endorsing her preselection on behalf of his people.
I AGREE WITH EVERYONE HERE THAT IT IS THE MEDIA’S FAULT THAT LABOR IS GOING TO LOSE THE ELECTION!
Tweet from Ben Packham
This is the best free publicity prostate checks are ever going to get
Lol shows on
Labor wins by default , abbott can not win
1937
victoria
[Funny tweet from the geek
Surely the real news to come out from #prostategate is how Tory men and MSM men prefer doctors with large hands. #ROFL ]
🙂
THE CAPS LOCK PHANTOM HAS RETURNED!
Showson
.LABOR IS GOING TO LOSE BECAUSE THE ECONOMY IS F@@CKED
Just me
The Geek comes up with some beauties
[1949
BH
Do you remember the hoohaa over Susan Peacock and the ad for bed linen. I couldn’t see anything wrong with it but everyone was up in arms.]
I do remember that, BH. You’re right….such a fuss about so little.
Gweneth (Lynette) was tweeting yesterday.
Good news.
confessions
Great! Hi Gweneth (Lynette) if you are about.
Lynchpin @ 1946
Ditto
Kevin Bonham
If you are still around. My query re the JWS poll is that 54 marginal seats were polled and 3350 people polled. How can accurate swings be detected, when it would appear that so few people in each seat would have been polled. Am I missing something?
Tony has dragged One of the Girls into his mini campaign. Daughter Frances has appeared with him in Melbourne. Oh whoop-de-doo. I suppose we paid her airfare and her accomodation.
http://www.news.com.au/national/daughter-frances-helps-in-federal-opposition-leader-tony-abbotts-pre-election-campaign/story-fndo4cq1-1226564266010
I wonder if Peter Dutton mentioned that NBN petition to Tony while he was there?
Leone
What happened to Tony helping the flood effort in Qld and NSW?
Cheers, Gweneth xx
victoria
So on average 64 people were polled per electorate. On ABC RN this morning JWS claimed an MOE of “less than 2.0%” . Sounds more like the Dodgey Brothers.
poroti
Yes, but arent these people robocalled? Iow, no attention is paid to the demographics of each group. Ie age, gender etc.
1970
Doyley
[How {Crossin} responds well could be a litmus test as to how united the party is at the beginning of this election year.]
How Peris responds for the next few public interviews is probably the most important factor in all this. If she comes across as resolute, articulate, forward looking, and in control of her destiny, I think that will play well.
.
.
.
.
And, lo!, just as I finished that paragraph, up comes the Peris press conference, where she did exactly that.
Unamibiguously described the intervention as “failed”, and took the hard questions on Labor’s role in it without squirming and with reasonable answer (given the circumstances).
She is no token tame darkie. Shame job on all those who described her as such.
One of the most promising first time federal candidates in a long time, and I look forward to seeing how it pans out for her and the country.
On twitter. Hear bloody hear!!
If ever there was an illustration of how corruptly biased our press is look at the gravity & reporting of ‘fingergate’ vs #Ashbygate.
“fingergate”
The OM’s version of a serious investigative probe?
snicker
Is Abbott risking making his family fair game with this sort of stuff ?
[“If the Gillard Government was a better manager of money, it wouldn’t have had to do this,” he said.
“As far as the Coalition is concerned … by all means minimise the bureaucracy but maximise frontline patient services.”
Mr Abbott then asked his young daughter to address the media. Appearing a bit nervous, Ms Abbott said she and her sisters loved supporting their father and especially enjoyed visiting Melbourne.]
http://www.news.com.au/national/daughter-frances-helps-in-federal-opposition-leader-tony-abbotts-pre-election-campaign/story-fndo4cq1-1226564266010
victoria
Tony has filled a sandbag, changed shirts and stared at a map in Queensland, what more could he do?
If he’s in Victoria today then he might take the time to visit a a fire affected area. I don’t suppose any imperinent questions will be asked if he foregoes that pleasure though.
meher baba@1925
I always find comments like this one amusing.
Gee, sometimes I would really like to have a ‘like’ or ‘ROFL’ button for some of these posts. eg 1993 and 1995 (probe hehe). Would be so much quicker than typing “I agree”.