Bruce covers suburbs in eastern Melbourne from Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill south to Springvale (home to substantial Vietnamese and Chinese communities) and Dandenong. The Monash Freeway bisects the electorate from north-west to south-east, serving as a rough divider between a strongly Labor-voting south and a broadly marginal north with pockets of strong Liberal support around Wheelers Hill. The redistribution has added around 7500 voters from those parts of Glen Waverley who were previously in Chisholm, which has garnished Labor’s margin from 8.1% to 7.7%.
Bruce was created in 1955 but has been substantially altered over time by redistribution, its original boundaries extending far beyond the city limits to Cranbourne in the east and Berwick in the south. Suburban expansion soon caused it to be drawn into its long-term base of Glen Waverley, and it assumed roughly its current dimensions when it acquired Labor-voting Noble Park and Dandenong North in 1996. This proved a watershed moment electorally, as the Liberals had previously held the seat without interruption and Labor has done so since.
The inaugural member for the seat was Billy Snedden, who went on to lead the Coalition in opposition from the wake of the 1972 election defeat until he was deposed by Malcolm Fraser in March 1975, and then to serve as Speaker throughout the period of the Fraser government. Snedden retired following the 1983 election defeat and was succeeded at the ensuing by-election by Kenneth Aldred, who had held the since-abolished eastern suburbs seat of Henty for the Liberals from 1975 until his defeat in 1980. In 1990 Aldred was defeated for Liberal preselection by Julian Beale, whose seat of Deakin had been made notionally Labor by a redistribution. Aldred then ran for Deakin himself, and managed to retain the seat on the back of a statewide backlash against Labor.
The 1996 redistribution gave Bruce a notional Labor margin of 1.6%, which Beale had to overcome if he was to retain his seat. In the event he could manage only 0.8%, a rare disappointment for the Liberals in the context of that election. The winning Labor candidate was Alan Griffin, who had previously held the abolished seat of Corinella. Bruce has since swung substantially according to the prevailing political winds, but has nonetheless remained fairly secure for Labor, the narrowest margin after 1996 being 3.5% in 2004.
A noted figure of influence in the Socialist Left faction, Griffin served as Veterans Affairs Minister in the first term of the Rudd-Gillard government before standing aside after the 2010 election. Griffin cited personal reasons for this decision, but he would soon emerge as a numbers man for Kevin Rudd’s leadership aspirations. Griffin announced he would not seek re-election in August 2011, before changing his mind in July 2012. He had earlier been fortunate to survive a preselection challenge for the 2007 election by Matt Carrick of the Right, who was reportedly thwarted by a single Transport Workers Union delegate who split from his faction’s line out of animus towards Carrick’s backers in the National Union of Workers.
The Liberals have endorsed Emanuele Cicchiello, Knox councillor and deputy principal of Lighthouse Christian College.
Too quick for me William 🙂
So if you consider it in net terms, and there is never any sensible reason to do anything else, and throw in a few extra losses for Tasmania and the NT, it’s about where BludgerTrack is when taken in aggregate – except New South Wales is massively worse for Labor and Queensland massively better.
1746
Sp you are not a fan of the Five Star Movement then?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Star_Movement
Sobering news particularly as Tasmania and the territories are not included
Those six seats in Qld include Dawson and Herbert, regional seats with sitting “sophomore” members. I think winning them will be a big ask for Labor. The other four, Brisbane, Bonner, Forde and Longman, are quite believable Labor gains.
The ten Labor losses in NSW would be Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Reid, Page, Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Dobell and Kingsford Smith.
There are enough clowns in Italian politics already.
Note than Labor has never lost Reid (1922), Banks (1949) or Kingsford Smith (1949). There’s a pretty seismic change in Sydney politics underway. Thanks Robbo, you done good mate.
In the near future, I will present a full history of exactly what happened in the Queensland Branch of the Australian Services Union and exactly what happened to me following the Union elections that year.
It is a long way short of what Psephos put forward to attempt to damage my character as I was not an elected Official whatsoever but am employee.
There were certainly a number of people who well deserve to have had legal action taken against them for the deformation of my character at the time.
I didn’t have enough proof to go them at the time but would much prefer to die a pauper having defended my character than otherwise.
So Psephos, have another go at me and we will see just where we end up eh!
There is still plenty of smoke coming off me from your last shot and I did get some advice. Somewhat different to Bilbo’s.
Glory be, it’s raining (slightly) in East St Kilda.
Bemused.
‘I think one is on gardening and another has been well behaved since being chastised by William recently.’
I remain hugely offended at the personal content of their posts.
I remain insulted by William’s dismissal of my perception.
His not allowing my reply.
Now, what was I talking of?
Oh yeah, the fucin trolls.
Never heard of JWS Research, but I think it’s outlinar as polls suggest VIC to be ahead of in favor of ALP (ReachTel).
Speaking of clowns… this is probably a good time to go to bed.
*Exit
Well if you lie down with dogs you get up with fleas. Allowing Labor to be controlled by the likes of Obeid and Tripodi is having its inevitable (and indeed deserved) effect
Psephos,
It’s a pretty good place for cowards!
Enjoy the nightmares! 😉
In NSW … the big Middle Eastern vote in Sydney
_______________
A friend of M E background tells me that the constant anti-Gillard tone opf the weekly arabic press in NSW,notably in Western Sydneyt is having an big affect on a group once fairly solid for Labo,but now lost to the ALP
Gillard is under fierce attack for her UN vote against Palestinian membership in the UN
This has rankled the big arab population in western Sydney and they are a fairly large group of voters in western Sydney
Gillard is realy unpopular there over her links with the zionists
I am not surprised to see the reports of a swing towards the Liberals amongst the NSW Muslim community. It is a conservative community although it did support Gillard in 2010 and it wouldn’t be happy with the vote to abstain.
I am curious as to why Kingston-Smith is considered in danger and no mention of Barton, I would have though Barton would fall before Kingston-Smith.
I still don’t think the Liberals are doing any better than 85 seats
Zoidlord the Victorian poll was for state politics unless there has recently been one conducted for federal
Doesn’t Obeid control most of the Arabic press?
How much of the Arab vote is Christian – people who can’t really be called friends of the Palestinians?
Do we have any data on what is happening with the Arab vote?
@mexican/1768
ReachTel is local – JWS Research seems to be federal.
Newspoll 51-49
Essential: 54-46
Are previous federal polling.
1769
A minority of the Palestinians are Christian.
Tom
I think you misunderstood me.
What I wanted to know was how many of the Arab voters in Western Sydney are Christian ( they would be Lebanese, Egyptian, And a lesser extent Syrian/iraqi with very few Palestinians). This group has very little sympathy for the Palestinians and would probably support JGs stand. The Muslims on the other hand could well be effected by her apparent pro-Zionism.
Yes,Arabic speaking people will will all vote for Abbott and his party, because, you know, they know he loves them.
Which leads me to tomorrow,s ABC, and soon to be Murdoch, beat-up.
ABC lead in to a story was to the effect First Man Makes Comment About Chinese Women.
Nub of the story? As an advocate for men’s health issues he addresses the West Indies Cricket Team and suggests they should undergo a prostate test for their own safety.
Cracks a weak funny, given the most common test requires the insertion of a medical finger in the anus,that they consult a female Chinese doctor. Small medical person, small, less intrusive finger, get it?
Not the ABC. Sexist, Racist and probably anti Buddhist if they can stretch it that far.
@William/1752
NSW is a gooana for awhile yet – O’Farrel isn’t just making enough noise (compared to Ted and Newman).
NFI on Tasmania – lost cause.
1772
I was just pointing out that it is a complicated situation.
CW, I wouldn’t allow another commenter to share a “perception” that you were a troll, on the grounds that there is no adequate basis for saying so. I don’t know why you wouldn’t expect me to extend other commenters the same courtesy.
Fulvio, I just watched that, on Lateline.
He said ‘small Asians’. And he seemed to be addressing an assembly of Asians. Far cleverer than he.
Whatever the circumstance, Dhuaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
I’d love to know how somebody can use an alternate service when they don’t proscribe to that service.
Either the media or those providing information to it are totally ignorant or they think the rest of the population came down in the last shower of rain from the cyclone.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/australian-it/telstra-scrambles-for-a-phone-fix-after-triple-zero-fails/story-e6frgakx-1226563793640
Re NSW Arab community
_______________
There is a small Arab Palestinian christian community…though most are islamic
Among Lebanese many are Christians(of the Maronite sect .which uses Arabic in it’s services”) They are in communion with Rome(see below)
Among the other arabs from a variety of countries , there is almost universal support for the Palestinians.
This also extends to asian moslems,…e.g..see Malaysian support for Palestine for example
Gillard’s was said to favour a “No” on the {Palestine resolution for limited UN Gen Assembly membership but was forced to back an abstention …under pressure from Carr who knows the score both here and abroad…and is an old Sydney operative
The UN vote was overwhelming anway
Israel has few friends in the UN anyway and this reflects the world view on the subject too
Gillard is a slow learner on this matter !!
She visited Israel when Dpt Prime Minister in the company of Andrew Bolt(Yes Andrew Bolt..another zionist like his boss Rupert Murdoch…who is a passionate supporter ))
.silly stuff really..and she made no contact with the Palestinians while there
In Australis there is now a large moslem community..many are for the moment lost to Labor
So all this is noted in the several Arab weekly newspapers and on radio programs on community radio in Melb and Sydney
all deadly stuff which may now be reflected in the disasterous polling
William.
The grounds for my perception were sound. I adjudged JW by his third post to be a troll. Proof is impossible, but judgement is not.
I assume that your post William Bowe 755 previous thread, acknowledges that.
To quote you ‘Okay, now you’re allowed to accuse John Wright of trolling’.
You did allow JW his say. He, on the other hand, took advantage of your innate courtesy. All the while posting rubbish. Intended to mislead.
That I could scroll past.
However and finally, it was too much when Kevin Bonham was taking effort to respond, in good faith.
And, you or anyone may take issue with this, Dorrie is of the same ilk.
JWS poll commissioned by ECG Advisory Solutions. Costello is chairman of its advisory board: http://www.ecgadvisory.com.au/team/
So this is another poll commissioned by a non-neutral source, essentially an internal poll which would not necessarily have been released if the commissioning source did not like the results, and therefore to be treated with the usual caution reserved for all such polls.
That said, if it’s accurate the suggestion is that there is a massive swing against Labor in its own marginals coupled with only a small swing to the Coalition in the Coalition’s marginals, which is a very nasty scenario for Labor.
And presumably the basis for that is that Labor’s 0-3% marginals include 5/10 in NSW while hardly any of the Coalition’s 0-3% marginals are in NSW.
But even so, average 10% swing in Labor’s 0-3% marginals with only 5 of them in NSW? Seems hard to credit it would be that big.
Would have been nice to see this survey do a national baseline 2PP. Off a 5-point swing in the marginals if there is a uniform swing it would be 55:45 which is obviously on the high side.
Does anybody, including the Arab population of Australia, seriously believe that a Coalition government would have voted any more favourably to the Palestinians? And if they do, would they like to buy a bridge?
Had a look at the JWS megamarginal poll from 2010 to see how well it did.
It predicted 15 ALP losses, 10 ALP holds and 6 ALP gains. The ALP lost 8 of its 15 predicted losses, lost 3 of its 10 predicted holds and gained 2 of its 6 predicted gains.
Both the predicted and the actual loss from that sample sum to -9 but instead of 21 of the seats changing hands, only 13 did.
Two Government “losses”, Melbourne and Denison, were not in the poll.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
The Repug playbook in The Libs’ pockets would not allow this.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/labor-to-push-new-rules-for-elections-20130128-2dh1e.html
Yeas, Tone, model it on the UK and Spain. They’re doing austerity really well!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/no-slices-too-deep-or-too-shallow-for-abbotts-razor-20130128-2dgzo.html
Pat Campbell with an election year long range forecast.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
Ron Tandberg with a delightful swipe at governmental redefinition of what constitutes work for teachers.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
Kevin Bonham
Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013 at 4:24 am | Permalink
Had a look at the JWS megamarginal poll from 2010 to see how well it did.
——————————————
Yep why opinion polls have a poor record
, like in 2007 there always seems to be a 6-8% gap from opinion polls to the actual election
when opinion say the election will be 57 – 43 ” , they always admit they have a 6 % or so margin of error
its like a 50-51 / 50-49
Why elections result majority of times , are closer then the opinion polls predict
And from the Land of the Free –
Well, well. The Repugs are coming to a stark realisation.
http://americablog.com/2013/01/romney-adviser-the-culture-wars-are-kind-of-over-and-republicans-largely-lost.html
This is going to be one to watch.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/01/28/wi-officials-subpoenaed-over-missing-computers-docs-involved-in-redistricting-that-benefited-republicans/
More guns in schools cartoons.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/01/28/cartoons-of-the-day-guns-in-schools/
A good summary of Sarah Palin’s truncated career at FoxNews.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/01/28/1182719/-Idiot-half-term-governor-takes-15-a-word-nonsense-to-wingnuttiest-corners-of-the-interwebs
And it’s off to the flatlands for BK for the day.
i would be surprise if there is a change in the essential poll like 52/48
Survived the night with another blackout starting just as I went to bed, bit lucky there. Listened to the sea and wind roar and howl for a while. This morning still raining wind not quite as strong. ABC local says 130 ml since 9am yesterday. Grafton area is the bad spot.all access Brisbane to Sydney now cut. Will venture down to the beach around high tide later this morning
BTW have the local ABC on and guess what AM has discovered JWS Poll , how surprising they seemed to have a lot of trouble discovering eg Newspoll or Nielsen when they reported 😉
on the JWS Research poll in the AFR, was it conducted in the last sitting fortnight of parliament in 2012 when NewsLtd and Fairfax cranked up the AWU allegations?
That NewsPoll manipulation event got 3 points to the LNP in what is now seen as an outlier poll, but allowed News to leave 46/54 on their web site over the summer break.
OC @ 1764
Well if you lie down with dogs you get up with fleas. Allowing Labor to be controlled by the likes of Obeid and Tripodi is having its inevitable (and indeed deserved) effect
Well said. In the last NSW State election I wrote on my ballot paper that I preferred the seat to remain vacant – I didn’t want to vote for Labor, Liberal, Green or religous crackpot.
But Federally – well, what’s the alternative – let Abbott and his clowns at the levers of power, including that Buffoon Hockey as Treasurer, the pompous bloviator Brandis as AG, the execrable Scott Morrison in a senior position and the likes of Bernardi, Mirabella and other far-right nincompoops in the wings.
On the other hand, I live in a blue ribbon Liberal seat so my Lower House vote doesn’t count. But I’ll use my Senate vote to put the Coalition and their allies last.
Well, the Arab community in Sydney might either change their vote from Labor, who simply votes on Israel’s side on international matters, to the Liberal party, which actually went to an illegal war which was just so popular with Arabs.
The change is probably down to the conservative patriarchal culture not enjoying having to answer to a woman. It’s not like Abbott would support a Palestinian state or refuse to support Israel.
Morning All
Sounds like a pretty nasty poll from JWS – the only real surprise is some of the seats that may be included in the Sydney wipe out for Labor. The NSW Right has a hell of a lot to answer for – as a result, I’d expect Western Sydney to be the focus of the election year. As sad as that is 🙁
It’s far from over yet though
Seems that Paul Bongiorno is haring the gig with Michelle Grattan on RN this year – he started well today, Fran sounded as if she was in shock 🙂
Good to see Adam getting some coverage where it matters
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/living-on-newstart-already-impossible-says-australian-greens-mp-adam-bandt/story-fncvk70o-1226563466951
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/do-you-really-need-to-live-on-the-dole-to-understand/
And and update on how he is going – it will be a long week
http://www.adambandt.com/mondayarvo
End of day 1: $27.24 remaining
Not good his razor needed replacing, they aren’t cheap 🙁
Can’t anything be done about this stupid defaulting to page 9?
Deblonay @ 1779 – In Australis there is now a large moslem community..many are for the moment lost to Labor
The Muslim and Arab communities (two overlapping groups, of course) would like a Coalition government even less. The Coalition’s foreign policy regarding Israel (and pretty much everything else) is unconditional support for the position of the USA, i.e. unconditional support for Israel. We will stand tall with the USA, Micronesia and Palau in the UN to vote against any motion that suggests that Israel is anything less than a model global citizen or that the Palestinians maybe should get a fairer go. Our Security Council seat will be a second vote for the USA. And you have Scott Morrison rallying anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant and racist sentiment in the community under the guise of ‘border control’ and ‘post-multiculturalism’ to win seats in Western Sydney. The ALP has issues and is far from perfect. But the alternative does not bear thinking about.
BK’s link to the Libs new austerity style and the picture reminded me.
In nearly all the recent pics of Hockey, he’s looking grim-faced, even angry. I think this may be an attempt to shed the buffoon-type smiling imagery of Joe, exemplified in the Sunrise and Shrek-style stuff.
It’s serious business now. Time to get tough. That’s what the visual reshaping is all about. Trouble is it will need a bit of substance to it.
I seem to remember massive swings to the coalition last election in booths around Auburn, in the seat of Reid, which have a very high Muslim population. I also remember the suggestion that it would be hard for an unmarried female to win a lot of support from Muslim voters.
GD, he is probably eating too many celery and carrot sticks – no wonder he looks glum 🙁
Wonder what FWA will say re Ashby vs Slipper today, if anything???
Anyways, back to work for me – have a great day All